[phil_abuster]

Originally posted on 12/31/2016:

no need for greed should be a easy 4K +

I have posted big money line bets before and won in the long term

*please check my history if you wish to verify*

WISH ME LUCK GENTS AND I WISH YOU THE SAME GOOD LUCK

seriously dude, u have a pair of big ones to make a ML bet of this size,
but i believe u and i do wish u good fortune!


that said, a couple observations for those reading this:

1/ common wisdom suggests limiting each bet to maximum 2-4% of br
to avoid the "risk of ruin"
* although i have failed this myself on numerous occasions

2/ the moneyline odds r rarely in favor of either side.
oddsmakers compute the true odds of any given occurance
then set the moneyline settings to be WORSE than those odds for either side
over time this is a loser (as another poster pointed out)

3/ just this year, Louisville were 17pt favs @Houston and got routed!
the following week, i figured there was no effing way that Louisville
could lose AT HOME, as -26 favs, to then mediocre 6-5 Kentucky.
indeed stats show that -26 pt favs (past 14 seasons) were 46-0 su!!!
today that stat is 46-1

4/ in this bowl season, -15.5 fav Colo.St lost outright!

5/ over the past 14 seasons, favs of -14 pts (based on closing line)
have been 308 contests -- the heavy favs LOST 41 times (13.3%)
and that assumes the closing line is consensus -14
at -14.5 closing line the losing percentage rises to 16.9%
or -13.5 closing line the losing percentage rises to 17.6%
more simply, these numbers suggest about a 1 in 6 chance of losing a lot of effing money
sure the chances of winning, historically at this line, r about 5 in 6, but
most of us would prefer an edge in either the odds or the money to
make any wager and this appears to have neither.

yes, bama is CLEARLY the better team and should win outright, possibly by a lot!
but we should always keep in mind these 3 risks which we cant handicap:

1/ f*cking unlucky breaks! (unlucky turnovers, penalties, kick returns)

2/ bad officiating calls which ultimately affect the outcome
remember Okl.St and c.mich this yr!

3/ late suspensions or game injuries/ejections to key players!!!


i will place a ML bet on bama, but small, due to those 3 risks!
and for THAT reason i hope U win lol