Kind of a degen play here, was thinking Ark but hate laying over a TD in a game with such a low listed Total.
I think extra practice time will help TEX QB Swoopes and although I really like ARK this year their best wins have been at home. Beat Miss @ home 30-0 thanks to maybe a deflated Rebel team and +5 in turnovers. Beat LSU at home 17-10 in a terrible offensive performance from both ARK 243 total/yds O...LSU 123 total/yds offense. Ark hasn't been good on 3rd downs L3 ...about 35%. Don't love their passing game and think Tex D is not bad against the run - 3.9 yds/rush.
Tex got blown out by TCU at home last game but was -4 in turnovers. Actually only outgained 368-290 so not as bad as score indicates. Beat OK St 28-7 and WVU 33-16 the two games before.
Kinda think both teams get fired up to play - both coached well IMO. Not my strongest opinion but gonna see what happens...
Gonna go with the Rebels here. One thought is dogs + SEC vs Big 12 performance so far in bowls favors dogs/SEC. Hugh Freeze 2-0 in bowls. TCU score 30+ every game but haven't faced D like Miss. L4 for TCU ...K State, Kan, Tex and Iowa St...not exactly tough defenses. Hopefully "good Bo" will show up , seem to have found TE Evan Engram as a new target to replace Treadwell.
Concerns are Miss gave up 35 to Auburn who is high-powered O like TCU. Both teams may be disappointed to be left out of Top 4...TCU maybe more so. Think there may be some culture shock for TCU today, Miss very good against the pass/can create turnovers and tough 3rd down D. Think it will be a close one high 20's low 30's for both offenses. Looks like 31-28 type game. TCU could get rolling though but will take my chances with Miss.
Wow...lost last 3 in a row, not good. Barely ahead for bowl season after a hot start, regression in a bitch!
Anyway, have these from earlier
#73 Wiscy/Auburn o63
#76 Mich St ML +125
Adding #79 FSU +8' that I got last night. Hopefully today is the day things get turned around. Also considering a play that incorporates my thought that it's very unlikely both faves in play-off games win AND cover. Maybe a futures bet with Ohio St and FSU? Then hedge the championship game, or maybe a some type of parlay with both dogs...still thinking about it.
What's up carcapp??? What a win you had on BOTH those wins yesterday, wow.. OT for the Auburn game and the Mich St comeback was unreal!!! I did a long write up on the Under for the UH game this morning, I didn't think to post it here, sorry..
I am also looking at the next game, and damn, I really think Iowa is going to win this game, forget the points.. Tenn quarterback is shaky at best & they don't run huge.. Tenn barely beat Vandy the last game in Vandy to get bowl eligible, they easily could of been 5-7 this year. They celebrated huge after that win IN Vandy & I think honestly, they get rocked today by Iowa. On the flip side, Iowa blew some huge opportunities this year, but to some really really good schools in Neb, Wisc, Maryland.. That 7-5 record with some luck not blowing the 17 pt lead to Neb and the last min win by Wisc and they could of been 9-3. I just think the level that Iowa went against all year was so much tougher than Tenn and this Rudock kid might have a solid game. I cannot trust that qb from Tenn, he has had mostly below average games and has only lit it up one time I think all year. Tenn doesn't have a huge run game either and their total yards per game shocked me the last few games they played with only 262 & 270 I think. Damn, if they have an offensive day like that, they are gonna lose to Iowa today IMO.. Iowa played such big schools this year & was in so many of those games till the very end, I think they will have the confidence to play Tenn really tough today..
Just my thoughts carcapp, I love your plays man, you know that. Just this one I might have to go Iowa +3 at even at +100. With my exp, when they juice the crap out of that -3 for one team, it never turns out well for me. I'll ck back later brother!!!
Hey DMoney! I got some "good beats" yesterday and I don't know what happened to Iowa today, they are a better team than that. For me, this bowl season hasn't gone at all like I thought it would but as I have said, capping bowls seems to be different than reg season. I think I'll have one or two more plays for college football, been fun sharing my thoughts this year. Really appreciate your input and others...IMO this is what this forum should be about, we're all in it to make some $$$ and nobody knows it all!
Final pick of the year, had good season but dropped off some during the bowls. I know these teams will score a bunch of points, just thinking they may be a little tight at the start of the game. Couple of random thoughts for tonight:
-Urban Meyer 13-2 ATS as a dog / 34-9 ATS with at least a week to prepare...think he's a way better coach than Ducks HC
-Ducks lost some good players to injury, suspension, etc...only player on offense to start every game this year at the same position is...Mariota
-Oregon is back in school, Spring semester has started (limited to 20 hrs week practice time) Buckeyes not started Spring semester yet, can practice all they want
-Buckeyes have played a lot of teams that are slow-paced offense, Alabama-#81, Wisc #104, Mich St #94, Minny #101 are all ranked near the slowest pace, Indiana was fastest at #21
-Actually Buckeyes not great against the run but do fair well against pass, need to make Mariota uncomfortable
-watch for Buckeye LB Darron Lee in coverage, they will try to use him to defend against the Ducks screen game, could be a big point in the game if Ducks don't have success here
-Ohio St and Mich St play similar type defense
-Ducks are not great on D on 3rd downs, give up a lot of 1st downs
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