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Revenge in my opinion does play a factor, and should be considered when handicapping a game. If I got my asss kicked, you can be rest assured I am going to back to the next fight angry, more prepared, and more determined than ever to kick your asss. Being knocked out of an opportunity of having your dream come to be reality, which in this case is playing in the national championship game is something you do not forget, and are more determined than ever not to let happen again.
Two top 5 teams and conference rivals both off a bye week. Motivation will be sufficiently peaked both ways...as is the care every year for the past 5.
What happened last year isn't prologue to anything nor is it a factor in handicapping.
I guess then we will leave (Revenge Factor) it up to individual posters to decide if they want to consider a revenge factor or not, as I feel I pointed out very strongly my view/opinion of it.
It matters sometimes...just not here. If you got your ass kicked you may fight harder but that doesn't mean the guy who kicked your ass doesn't want to do it just as badly next time out.Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife
Thank you.
I swear, if I see one more thread or post about something that happened 1, 2, 5 or even 10 years ago just because it matches up with some surface "trend" they saw on ESPN or Covers.com, I'm going to punch my monitor.
Start punching!because it is relevent!
Revenge factor vs monitor
I dont agree...doesnt what happened the previous year aid in building a rivalry? If th previous year games dont matter, rivalries wouldnt exist.
Hey guys figured I'd give my input even though I hardly post on here. I'm kinda new to betting but I have studied football stats my whole life (was nice when it was my stats in high school haha)
The Ducks are for real. I feel like this defense is better than last year. Same with the offense. Marcus has 1.5 years experience now and as good as he was last year.....look out! Stanford doesn't win because of their offense, and when you need points you need an offense built to score them. Oh and Stanford's big bad D just took some injuries and have some rust replacing it. Not exactly a recipe for success. Oregon is going to put up 41 points.
The question is, what can Stanford score. At -10 that would be 31 points. I'd be willing to bet that doesn't happen.
Going to monitor the line this week. Make a play if I see something I like. I usually play team totals over spreads, just my preference.
Rivalries exist for a lot more reasons than who won or lost the previous game. Geography, recruiting, etc. Long histories that include many things come into play. And I am one of those that believe revenge is NOT a significant factor when handicapping a game with the possible exception of same year revenge and only as a contributing factor to support more solid handicapping procedures.
yes I agree if it happens same year. Enough on line for both sides revenge far down list of motivators
Human motivation can be factored into your analysis when a good team is in a letdown spot, or a lessor team in the National spotlight.
If you are trying to understand human motivation for two "smart" top 5 ranked teams in a rivalry game then I have some wheels for you to spin.
Both teams with 12 days to prepare. Think we get the best of both teams
Agree to an extent, but not quantifiable. Is that a word?
If you don't think Marcus and the bunch had this date circled in RED since the schedule came out months ago ur nothing short of foolish. It has everything to do with it being a rivalry and while Stanford will be super motivated as they should be, Oregon had had this in there meetings, off season training, hanging in the weight room. If you don't get this angle it's simple... You didn't play sports past JV.
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Stanford gonna beat these little boys up. Will own both lines of scrimmage. Easy cover.
Was just thinking the opposite on the revenge factor. Played at D-1 level and can tell you it mattered in preparation and for first drive of game. After that, talent and schemes made the difference and what happened in the prior year, 5 years whatever didn't mean squat.
Agreed!Start punching!
Plus comparing games played a year ago to games played 5 or 10 years ago is like comparing apples to oranges.
This Oregon Revenge factor is BS and them having to beat Stanford to a pulp is also rubbish. Stanford is playing for just as much as Oregon. Don't underestimate this Stanford team. There is a reason this line is so low. Take a look at what Stanford has done to high flying offenses like UCLA, Oregon St, Washington St. and ASU. All were shutdown by Stanford. Yes, Oregon is amazing and fast, but look at the size of Stanford to run a power game and slow Oregon down. Get Marriota off the field and get that Def some rest. I would just keep pounding the undersized Oregon Defense. See a close game here and wouldn't be surprised if Stanford took it again.
Bingo.
I don't know why ppl say this line is "low" 10 points means vegas says ur getting beat down. How long have some of you been gaming??? Oregon has got to be -500 ML or so. That is not saying vegas expects it to be close. Oddsmakers have it capped properly because Stanford is solid enough to keep it close yet more likely Oregon by 17-24 but there giving the middle of the two mentioned outcomes to keep it close to even action. This is a rerun of FSU/MIA. Tooooo much ducks
Also I played 2 sports D1. Tell me then why do u upsets always occur in interstate rivalries?? Remember when Texas Pollywhopped OU a few weeks ago as 16 point fav and lost by 16... OU better team no doubt but they had motivation. Easy no play due to threat yet this board was 75% OU. And all you rookie analysts...
1996-7 FSU/FLA FSU won 24-21 in last game of year to leave gators for dead. Nebraska lost big 12 title game and gators got revenge for the championship in the 97 sugar bowl a month after losing by 3. They won 52-20. FSU was the team with the better D line. Talk to me Friday @ 1 am!!!
Oregon doesnt kick field goals or extra points though.
Oregon is going to crush. Pound it
We all know Stanford will want to get physical here.
We also know "Speed Kills".
I like Stanford, solid team. They looked great against Zona St. Problem is, their Offense is sputtering, of late.
If you're going to beat Oregon, you better be able to ring the scoreboard. Trend is your friend and Trees avg under 22 per game, lst 3.
Hows that going to get it done? Do Stanford bettors believe they could hold Oregon under 40?
Wil the Trees suddenly explode on O against a pretty stout Duck D?
Oregon scores come in waves.
This Oregon/FSU back and forth will really heat things up. Some might lean FSU/BAMA BCS if they win out. If Oregon beats #5 Stan convincingly, well, who knows?
I think the Ducks overwhelm them here. Might be tight at first and then they run away in the 2H.
No way I'm jumping off Duck train. They reward backers. Rolling the dice with Trees
Here's to the Ducks rolling here, leaving lots of droppings @ the farm. Lot's of them!
Last edited by Pivotpoint; 11-06-13 at 09:06 PM.
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I'm not advocating any plays here. I chimed in to say how ridiculous the motivational factor was these guys were trying to "cap"
Oregon's so called undersized defensive front
DE Taylor Hart 6-6 287
DE DeForest Buckner 6-7 286
Tackle Wade Keliikipi 6-3 299
Tackle Arik Armstead 6-8 296
Ricky Heimuli 6-4 314, Alex Balducci 6-4 290 are usually first two players off the bench.
In years past Oregon did have a undersized DL but have recruited bigger players the last few years where in the past they went for speed over size.
Take one look how they manhandled the Tennessee OL which is considered one of the best in the SEC, has four seniors, one who is a lock 1st rounder and three others who should be drafted high.
Here is a stat from last year and with the way Oregon is now recruiting I am sure they are still on or near the top in the country this year.
Players over 6’5”/300lbs
Oregon 28
Florida State 28
Notre Dame 24
LSU 23
Texas 23
Arkansas 23
Ohio State 23
Alabama 22
Wisconsin 22
Georgia 21
USC 19
Auburn 19
Michigan 18
South Carolina 18
Florida 18
Stanford 17
So when you keep saying Oregon is undersized you need to look at the facts not what ESPN tells you.
Late tonight.......so I will pass on listing Alabama's puny little players.
NO school has a better weight/conditioning prorgam in bigtime football than Alabama.
One of the first steps in Saban's process.....great recruits...build them UP!
Guessing you just watched that 60 Minutes Sports feature on their crazy Cajun conditioning coach...
Well I'm going OREGON. Don't give a shit what anyone says. I'm @ peace win lose or draw that 7/10 times they blow the trees to wood chips. Maybe the 3 comes thru but in the casino of u feel u have a 70% shot u gamble
Oregon Rolls....Even if this game is close...Ore runs away at the end....personally dont even see it being close
10 is extremely low for Oregon.
They are usually favored by 20 or more
I've never bought points in my life... Does it make sense to buy the .5 and get down to -10 @ -120 or should I stay @ -110 with -10.5??
i mean taking Oregon am I not saying I think there gonna beat the snot out of them?
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