[ExodusNZ]

Loving this play!

[lite1up]

I fail to see how anyone could possibly like the under in this one, without even looking at matchups/weather/stats. I don't think I'd take the under in a Toledo game if it were 100....

[saints1856]

I just bet the over 34.5 first half for this game.

Hell, in the last game vs N.Ill, it was 21-14 after the 1st quarter!! Toledo leads 28-14 at half... or something like that

[Pickem2win]

I just bet the over 34.5 first half for this game.

Hell, in the last game vs N.Ill, it was 21-14 after the 1st quarter!! Toledo leads 28-14 at half... or something like that

You are falling right into a trap.

Why do you think that Toledo will be up 28-14 at the half? Because N Ill has a crappy secondary?

A few things to consider:
Toledo (who is 5-4) In MAC play averages 45 pts per game in offense and allows 28 on defense which is 73 points per game. Western Michigan (who is also 5-4) in MAC play averages 32 points on offense and allows 30 on defense which is 62 points. You are buying into exactly what vegas wants you to--that because last weeks game with NIll went to 120+ points that all of a sudden this will be a shootout..The averages say that this game will be somewhere around 68 points.
Now lets remove last weeks shootout with NIll from the totals...Toledo's average drops to 41 points per game in the MAC and you can see with Western Michigans 30 points how close it truely could be. This puts the new total somewhere around 65-68 points. I just wouldnt put any money on it.


My prediction: 38-28 Toledo winning and 66 total points being scored.

[FlipsideRM]

Pickem2win is right, betting the over is for suckers!

[dee_jas]

pinny got it set at 70 -105 now

[shaunovery]

Line moving up fast

[Pickem2win]

Pickem2win is right, betting the over is for suckers!

I dont know if I would say the over is for suckers but I certainly dont think its a "lock". Gambling always involves risk...I just think there are better risks out there than betting on the total in this game.

[daviddaman2]

i like the play, me, you and 9 of our buddies could score against this Toledo defense. Dog and Over all day

[suicidekings]

Toledo got smacked in the mouth last week. I like them to cover the -12 and for the game to go comfortably under on the strength of a big Rockets defensive effort.

[daviddaman2]

Toledo got smacked in the mouth last week. I like them to cover the -12 and for the game to go comfortably under on the strength of a big Rockets defensive effort.

based on what do you expect a big defensive effort? Just b/c of the bounce back angle? There can't be one logical argument made for the Toeldo defense right now. Just 7 days ago that defense looked as bad as a High School defense, if not worse. Now all of the sudden 7 days later the defense is going to be on point? I just can't see it

[testertips]

stop trying to predict what will happen in MAC games... it's a coin flip kids just hope you played the right side

[rcjiii]

The betting public is against you suicide kings. The over under has risen to 71 1/2 in just the last few hours from 68.

[Dogway]

But 82% is on the under per pregame .com.

[suicidekings]

based on what do you expect a big defensive effort? Just b/c of the bounce back angle? There can't be one logical argument made for the Toeldo defense right now. Just 7 days ago that defense looked as bad as a High School defense, if not worse. Now all of the sudden 7 days later the defense is going to be on point? I just can't see it

Forget what you saw 7 days ago. NIU has Toledo's number because the Rockets have no answer for mobile QBs and Harnish abused them. Carder is an entirely different story. Offensively, WM is very dependent on their passing game, but Carder is not a mobile QB at all. He has a grand total of 2 net rushing yards this season. Harnish could sit in the pocket on Toledo's normal pass rush, protected by a very experienced OL, or escape and run the ball when they sent pressure with equal ease. Toledo couldn't get to him, however, WM is a team you can blitz against fairly often because Carder is not likely to escape the pocket and run very often.

Western Michigan does have a dangerous passing game, but if you look at the games they've played this season, there's a pretty simple recipe to beat WM that has been responsible for all four of their losses. Play Keep-Away. Run the ball a lot for long drives that eat clock and prevent Carder from getting into rhythm. This is exactly how Michigan, Eastern Michigan, NIU, and Illinois all slowed down the WM offense. The WM run defense is very porous (ranked #110) and they have a very poor pass rush, but a good secondary, so they're a team that has a lot of trouble disrupting opponents drives when the other team decides they're going to grind out yardage.

The thrashing the Rockets defense took last week, at home, makes me think that they will be defensive minded this week. On offense, they'll run a lot against the weak WM run defense, and on defense, they'll apply pressure and force Carder to hurry. I would like it better if Rancifer was playing, but I think the Under hits here.

[mission]

I'm thinking of the under here... 80% on the over after last week's game.

[ManBearPig]

Has anyone come up with even a remotely accurate True Value total on this. This seems inflated IMO and everything SK says about Toledo is what I saw about Toledo last week that had me thinking they would handle NIU. It just turned into one of those shoot-out type games where the team with the ball last was probably going to win.

Remember, the events of the past don't necessarily predict events of the future. Toledo is better than they showed last week and may or or may not show it this week either way I'm off this one.

[suicidekings]

Has anyone come up with even a remotely accurate True Value total on this. This seems inflated IMO and everything SK says about Toledo is what I saw about Toledo last week that had me thinking they would handle NIU. It just turned into one of those shoot-out type games where the team with the ball last was probably going to win.

Remember, the events of the past don't necessarily predict events of the future. Toledo is better than they showed last week and may or or may not show it this week either way I'm off this one.

IMO, the total for this game should have been in the low to mid 60s. It came out high, and the books are taking a lot of public over money while continuing to slide the total up, a half point at a time. They're not worried here, or there would be a bigger adjustment made. I feel like the books like their position on this game quite a bit right now.

[ManBearPig]

IMO, the total for this game should have been in the low to mid 60s. It came out high, and the books are taking a lot of public over money while continuing to slide the total up, a half point at a time. They're not worried here, or there would be a bigger adjustment made. I feel like the books like their position on this game quite a bit right now.

I would agree with this as well.

I came across this the other day, and when I saw this line I immediately thought of it. If you don't think the books are playing games with you then you are being naive.

[beerman2619]

only 35 points in the first quarter and western michigan driving

[beerman2619]

Saints nice bet you won in the first quarter

[suicidekings]

I would agree with this as well. I came across this the other day, and when I saw this line I immediately thought of it. If you don't think the books are playing games with you then you are being naive.

I give up. Three 1Q fumbles resulting in touchdowns... You can't cap that. Even when it was 14-14, the live line at Pinnacle was only O/U 78.5 on a line that was sitting at 71 everywhere 15 minutes before kickoff. Late action on the Under brought the closer down a point. We'll see what happens now that Toledo is back in control of the game.

[suicidekings]

I would agree with this as well. I came across this the other day, and when I saw this line I immediately thought of it. If you don't think the books are playing games with you then you are being naive.

Totally. To me it was pretty clear the books liked the Under today, but as we're seeing, things don't always work out for them either...

[suicidekings]

4th forced turnover... the defense is too good today

[suicidekings]

5 forced fumbles and an interception leading to 42 points in the first 20 minutes of the game. My Under is ******, so they might as well keep pouring it on

[jonathon1995]

You are falling right into a trap.

Why do you think that Toledo will be up 28-14 at the half? Because N Ill has a crappy secondary?

A few things to consider:
Toledo (who is 5-4) In MAC play averages 45 pts per game in offense and allows 28 on defense which is 73 points per game. Western Michigan (who is also 5-4) in MAC play averages 32 points on offense and allows 30 on defense which is 62 points. You are buying into exactly what vegas wants you to--that because last weeks game with NIll went to 120+ points that all of a sudden this will be a shootout..The averages say that this game will be somewhere around 68 points.
Now lets remove last weeks shootout with NIll from the totals...Toledo's average drops to 41 points per game in the MAC and you can see with Western Michigans 30 points how close it truely could be. This puts the new total somewhere around 65-68 points. I just wouldnt put any money on it.


My prediction: 38-28 Toledo winning and 66 total points being scored.

Glad I took the over,

[Pickem2win]

Glad I took the over,

Its a coin toss with the MAC! All the turnovers have really impacted the score. Look at how low scoring the NILL score is! 45 points entering the 4th quarter! Hard to cap this SOB's!!

[brahmabull117]

Its a coin toss with the MAC! All the turnovers have really impacted the score. Look at how low scoring the NILL score is! 45 points entering the 4th quarter! Hard to cap this SOB's!!

coin toss?? Dude there's been nearly 1400 yards of offense in this game



Just admit you made a horrible call and leave it at that. It happens to all of us

[suicidekings]

coin toss?? Dude there's been nearly 1400 yards of offense in this game. Just admit you made a horrible call and leave it at that. It happens to all of us

If you were to look back at all instances in which a team gives up 60 points (or 50+) in a game, I suspect the Under in the following game would hit at a fairly high rate. Long term I would play the Under in this situation again. It just didn't work out tonight at all...

TEN turnovers can do that to a game...

[brahmabull117]

TEN turnovers can do that to a game...

there's been 1400 yards of offense in this game


find me a game in the history of college football, regardless of turnovers, where there was 1400 yards of offense and less than 90-100 points

[suicidekings]

there's been 1400 yards of offense in this game. find me a game in the history of college football, regardless of turnovers, where there was 1400 yards of offense and less than 90-100 points

Once it got to 14-14, all bets were off in that regard. It was a shootout in the making and it doesn't pay to read into it too much. My point was that MOST teams, after having their defense shredded in the previous game, will play a tight game the next week. That obviously wasnt the case tonight, but what if there were no turnovers in the first 15min and one team was up 7-0 at the end of 1Q? The tempo likely would not have been anywhere close to what happened tonight, and so the results of this game have to be taken with a grain of salt.

[brahmabull117]

Once it got to 14-14, all bets were off in that regard. It was a shootout in the making and it doesn't pay to read into it too much. My point was that MOST teams, after having their defense shredded in the previous game, will play a tight game the next week.

what is this based on???


Colorado's defense has been sliced and diced game after game after game this year. These MAC teams aren't much better defensively than Colorado to be honest. If you don't have the talent to compete on defense, then you're not gonna compete


Also gotta keep in mind that 7 of 9 matchups in this series have gone OVER. I must admit this was the one play I liked the most today but I stayed away cause the Western Michigan offense hasn't been all that great recently.

That obviously wasnt the case tonight, but what if there were no turnovers in the first 15min and one team was up 7-0 at the end of 1Q? The tempo likely would not have been anywhere close to what happened tonight, and so the results of this game have to be taken with a grain of salt.

This wasn't a question of tempo though. Neither defense could do anything right in the game...

[ExodusNZ]

Hope people tailed

[saints1856]

You are falling right into a trap.

Why do you think that Toledo will be up 28-14 at the half? Because N Ill has a crappy secondary?

A few things to consider:
Toledo (who is 5-4) In MAC play averages 45 pts per game in offense and allows 28 on defense which is 73 points per game. Western Michigan (who is also 5-4) in MAC play averages 32 points on offense and allows 30 on defense which is 62 points. You are buying into exactly what vegas wants you to--that because last weeks game with NIll went to 120+ points that all of a sudden this will be a shootout..The averages say that this game will be somewhere around 68 points.
Now lets remove last weeks shootout with NIll from the totals...Toledo's average drops to 41 points per game in the MAC and you can see with Western Michigans 30 points how close it truely could be. This puts the new total somewhere around 65-68 points. I just wouldnt put any money on it.


My prediction: 38-28 Toledo winning and 66 total points being scored.

Who's the dumbass now?