[urge2kill]

LMAO I didn't even know he had a show.

[asiangambler]

good luck my friend

[Chairib]

good luck my friend

xie xie

[Chairib]

Okay so just under the wire lol....

I really wanted to focus on specific parts of Jake's grappling in my second part. i consider Jake's grappling style similar to guys like Ben Askren primairly because of their guard or how little they actually use the guard in their grappling game.

If you watch Ben fight, it's really interesting how little time he actually spends in the guard or uses it in MMA. He's looking to constantly scramble out of the bottom position and get back to the top. Jake uses the half guard but like Ben, it's not a position you'll see him spend too much time in if he can avoid it.

When he's on the bottom, Jake will goto the halfguard and it'll often be something like this:





From there it's always a lower leg sub attempt or maybe a single leg. It doesn't really matter if he gets it or not because it's more like a sweep since going for it will usually give him an oporutinty to get back to his feet or reverse position. Regardless, once he gets that halfguard the guy on top won't have much opportunity to strike because Jake will be looking to get out of that spot.

Which makes what happened in his fight against Yushin so interesting. In the third round of that fight, Jake was trying to get to that halfguard position by trying to get that opposite leg, but Yushin shut that down. Here you see Jake trying to go for Yushin's left leg.



Notice the positioning of Yushin's left arm and shoulder here, he's using it to block Jake from getting a gable grip.





This is really important because Jake cannot get a gable grip and therefore he cannot get proper control of Yushin's left leg. Jake's halfguard essentially becomes nullified and once that happens you can control Jake on the ground. From there an opponent can methodically use ground and pound, specifically elbows, to great effect.

[Chairib]

Other than Jake's striking, I think the biggest hole in his game is conditioning. Can he go five rounds? Yes but five rounds against GSP is something different compared to five rounds against Dan Henderson or Mayhem Miller. Hell he literally was hanging on during his last three round fight against Kampman.

He was getting takedowns as well as the full mount against Martin but Kampman was able to get out of that position and back to his feet. Martin bucked his hips and used this hand to push off to get out of Jake's full mount.



And even though Jake was able to get this position, he used a lot of energy trying to get that position and was pretty gassed in round one. Jake's looking up at the clock here to see how much time is left. When guys start looking at the time during the fight, it's a clear sign of conditioning issues.



Jake's conditioning got him careless in his fight against Miller and it almost cost him the fight. Mayhem has got Jake's head turned here by applying pressure to his jaw.



Jake works to relieve pressure but notice Mayhem's left arm here



He's got the choke set up and sunk



Notice how much time is left here, Jake was literally saved by the bell here

[urge2kill]

Good stuff Chairib.

[Chairib]

While Jake has been able to get some decisions by controlling position, I don't know if he can afford to do that against GSP. The longer the fight goes on, the more it will become GSP's fight so if Jake wins this fight he wins it by submission early.

If you fight GSP the thing you want him to do, is get him backing up. He's never looked comfortable backing up and historically his tendency is not to throw strikes either. It's how Serra was able to get him. So if I'm Jake, come in striking and follow up those strikes with a clinch or takedown attempt. It's what he did at the start of his fight against Kampmann.



Get it to the ground and go for the guillotine, he's got a really sneaky guillotine choke. Whatever you do do not stand in front of GSP and let him work that jab.

If I'm GSP, I'll get Jake to expend a lot of energy going for takedowns early in the fight. Once it hits the fourth or fifth, take Jake down get in the same position Yushin was in and work that ground and pound. I really can see GSP just tearing Jake apart with elbows in the later rounds.

[Chairib]

Good stuff Chairib.

Thanks!

[Educ8d Degener8]

While Jake has been able to get some decisions by controlling position, I don't know if he can afford to do that against GSP. The longer the fight goes on, the more it will become GSP's fight so if Jake wins this fight he wins it by submission early.

This is a key point, and something I couldn't agree more with. The longer the fight stretches, the worse news it is for Shields with his gas tank. Though, I suppose Shields could pull a sub at any time given his sub skill set, but yeah, given GSP's discipline and training, might not be so likely. In any case, I still like the hedge of Shields via sub (now at +650; I bought in at +800). Or if you really feel it's only possible for him to win early, can nab a Shields in round 1 (+1500) or Shields in round 2 (+1700), but I'd rather avoid cost averaging into that, and just take the Shields by sub since it equates to better value... 'course that's only if anyone is interested in a play on Shields... something I'm only doing to hedge other GSP plays.

Thanks for the grappling critiques Chairib.

Good Luck!
ED

[Vaughany]

[Chairib]

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald

I like Rory MacDonald by decision here. There are some concerns about his knee, as it will be his first fight back from surgery. And yes conditioning is a worry as that loss to Carlos was due to him gassing in the third. And I do think Nate has the advantage on the stand up, I think Rory is the stronger grappler. I like watching this kid on the ground, he's got some slick ground work.

If MacDonald can avoid Nate trying to turn this fight into a stand up brawl, he'll take him down and control the grappling.

[Chairib]

ED and Vaughany

[Chairib]

Takedown accuracy...

Is anyone else as bothered about this stat as I am?

[illmatick]

Rory with some beautiful extension on his punches.

nice breakdown charib.

[Chairib]

Thanks ill, I was pleasntly surprised with Rory's striking in this fight. He rag dolled Nate in that last round, which was nice. Kid could be the next star.

[Vaughany]

Thanks ill, I was pleasntly surprised with Rory's striking in this fight. He rag dolled Nate in that last round, which was nice. Kid could be the next star.

Apparently Diaz has a seizure backstage

EDIT... a fake Josh Gross twitter apparently!

[Chairib]

Apparently Diaz has a seizure backstage

Serious? Jeez, not good.

[Chairib]

Damn that ginger is taking a beatin

[Chairib]

I'm thinking Lyoto by KO/TKO in the 3rd?

With Machida, his style is so frustrating to make predictions with. I think Randy comes out with some old school dirty boxing, clinch, and takedown but I don't know if he'll be able to keep it up for three rounds.

It'll be interesting how much the refs will let the fight go on in the clinch.

[Vaughany]

Serious? Jeez, not good.

Oh actually turns out it was a fake Josh Gross twitter account!

[Vaughany]

I'm thinking Lyoto by KO/TKO in the 3rd?

With Machida, his style is so frustrating to make predictions with. I think Randy comes out with some old school dirty boxing, clinch, and takedown but I don't know if he'll be able to keep it up for three rounds.

Spot on...my thinking too!

[Chairib]

Spot on...my thinking too!

Randy looking real tentative

and he's down wow

no can defend

[Vaughany]

Love it...u think tht will get KO of the NIght nod over Makdessi?!

[Chairib]

most certainly

[Kaladarus]

I think the Machida KO will take probably.

[Chairib]

I've been trying to figure out who Menjivar reminds me of and I finally figured it out. It's that monkey kid from The Rundown.

[Vaughany]

I've been trying to figure out who Menjivar reminds me of and I finally figured it out. It's that monkey kid from The Rundown.

haha gd shout!

[Vaughany]

How u think this one goes down Chairib? Im hopin Aldo uses this to display his grappling credentials...

[Chairib]

I hope Aldo lights his ass up

[Chairib]

damn those leg kicks are nasty

[Vaughany]

damn those leg kicks are nasty

Yeah amazing technique, tht body shot - leg kick combo is sick!

Liking the takedowns, hopefully he'll work for a submission next time.

[Chairib]

Hominick's left hook got something to it, Aldo needs to keep an eye out for it.

[Vaughany]

Hominick's cardio and recovery is ridiculous!

[Chairib]

Hominick starting to look like the Elephant Man

[Vaughany]

Hominick starting to look like the Elephant Man

Absolutely mental! I thought Brandon Wolff's was bad after the Saunder's beating but this takes the piss! Dude's got a chin like Frankie Edgar