[Vaughany]

Anyone know what the line will be on Rafael Natal against Attencio? He might be tired from his long run into the US Open. Plus, I don't think the Octagon has a clay court surface.

[koscheckbaby]

I'm still undecided on a play... although I'm may be falling in love with Palhares +3.5 pts...

But he does have an uncanny way of grappling guys to the mat (his strength helps, just a wee bit me thinks)

I think gifs like this give the wrong impression. They look cool, so people draw further conclusions into them. Jeremy Horn is weak and thrown around his share in MMA. It doesn't make Palhares a takedown machine to throw him. With Hendo, that was the only takedown of the fight over 3 rounds of trying. And as we know, Hendo has been taken down a lot in his MMA career by non wrestlers. That's what happens when you overcommit to strikes. Plus, Hendo's a Greco-guy, who doesn't have near the freestyle credentials

I'm not recommending a bet on Marquardt, but I feel like Palhares is a lot of hype right now. I have a hard time seeing him bully Nate to the ground with pure strength and I think Nate's TDD is better than he showed versus Sonnen.

[cooldavid3169]

Date: Sep 15, 2010

Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Frank Erwin Center
Broadcast: Spike TV

MAIN CARD

• Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares
• Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira
• Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau
• Cole Miller vs. Ross Pearson

PRELIMINARY CARD

• John Gunderson vs. Yves Edwards
• Jared Hamman vs. Kyle Kingsbury
• Dave Branch vs. Tomasz Drwal
• Rich Attonito vs. Rafael Natal
• David Mitchell vs. Anthony Waldburger
• Brian Foster vs. Forrest Petz

I dont think any of these fights will be easy to pick personally.

[Vaughany]

I dont think any of these fights will be easy to pick personally.

I agree, hence why I've just gone for prop-plays on this event so far! May go for Foster and Hamann depending on odds as well tho.

[LearningTree]

From BFO it looks like Oliveira started out at -150. Now he's +155. I wonder why everyone is jumping on Escudero. Dunham made him look average at best.

Because he doesn't have to take Oliveira down and he has good striking. And he's also a black belt.

[koscheckbaby]

Man, I rewatched Hendo-Palhares and Palhares did a bit better than I thought. Hendo lets guys get too deep on the leg though and he still mostly avoided them. Marquardt has actually shown good takedown defense, save for the Sonnen fight. I can't really decide whether Palhares will get him down or not.

Do you guys use 5dimes or play points handicaps? Palhares +3.5 seems decent. He just has to at least lose 29-28 on all the judge's scorecards.

[MadTiger]

For the main card, I am thinking

Marquardt
Escuerdo
Miller
Pearson

Good luck to all.

[KCJMAC]

Background on some of the undercard fighters:

http://www.cagepotato.com/ufc-fight-night-22-new-guys

[Pratik]

This is a really great card. Tibau is a good pick for a dog his size and power will be a factor in that fight. If you couldnt get Tibau for when he was a big dog i suggest parlaying him with Pearson whos will most likely win against cole miller the way Escudero did. The other 2 fights palharass may have a small chance to win; however, Nate wont have to worry about being taken to the ground as Palharass's skill is no where near Sonnens. The standup advantage has to go to Nate.

[The HOFF]

Bookmaker has full odds out.

[snake11eyes]

Background on some of the undercard fighters:

http://www.cagepotato.com/ufc-fight-night-22-new-guys

Thanks, good stuff.

[Shagdogy]

Just updating my thoughts on the Oliveira/Escudero fight. After watching more of Oliveira's BJJ and MMA fights, I'm falling in love with the Oliveira by Sub prop at +475. I think this is his best (only) shot to win this fight, and I just have a feeling that he's going to pull it out.

Of course, if he doesn't, there are a number of options to straddle it. Fight goes the distance @ +145 gives you the most options, but I'm starting to worry that if Oliveira isn't able to sub Efrain, he will eventually be TKO'd from GnP. He loves to pull guard in both his BJJ and MMA fights and has even been seen pulling the "butt scoot" move. This tells me that he is super confident in his bottom game, which is great, but if Efrain nullifies his offense he's in for a long night. Oliveira is non-stop action, always looking to pull a sub. He does not play a safe, defensive guard. His constant effort to end the fight makes it unlikely that it will go to decision. He's most likely to pull out the sub or get TKO'd trying. Consider going out of the box here by straddling Oliveira by sub with Efrain by TKO rather than decision.

IMO, Oliveira jumps on the scene here with a fancy, 2nd round sub. This just feels right to me.

[Pratik]

Anyone have plays for the prelims? there are a lot of new faces. After reading about some of the guys on there (see above and Thanks) I'm really liking Rafal Natal and David Mitchell.

[SweatySombrero]

i concur

[Vaughany]

Anyone have plays for the prelims? there are a lot of new faces. After reading about some of the guys on there (see above and Thanks) I'm really liking Rafal Natal and David Mitchell.

I was gonna have plays on Natal, Mitchell, Branch and Hamann. But after seeing their odds I dont see any value. Can only get Branch at +137 - would of taken him at +150, Mitchell is -210 was expecting -150 to -175 range so that's a no go, was expecting Natal to be at evens but he is the favourite at -180 and Foster is at -271 so defintely resisting that as I was hoping for -200 at most. Also not confident enough in Hamann at -170 so going to jus stick to my main card prop plays and straddles!

[MarlinsFan2212]

wow so tough to choose

[Pratik]

I see. why not just parlay 2? I dont see many dogs winning maybe Branch but his price went down quickly.

[Vaughany]

Anybody else think Kingsbury has a big size advantage over Hammann judging from the weigh-in right now?

[Vaughany]

Tibau weighs-in comfortably at 154...looks in great shape. Cole Miller has made a big mistake getting in Pearson's face like that...feeling even more confident in my Pearson by TKO/KO bet now!

[Vaughany]

Escudero weighs in at 159lbs...interesting

[The HOFF]

The full weigh-in results include:

MAIN CARD

• Nate Marquardt (186) vs. Rousimar Palhares (186)
• Efrain Escudero (159)* vs. Charles Oliveira (154)
• Jim Miller (155.5) vs. Gleison Tibau (154)
• Cole Miller (156) vs. Ross Pearson (156)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• John Gunderson (156) vs. Yves Edwards (155)
• Jared Hamman (205) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (206)
• Dave Branch (186) vs. Tomasz Drwal (185.5)
• Rich Attonito (185) vs. Rafael Natal (186)
• David Mitchell (170.5) vs. Anthony Waldburger (171)
• Brian Foster (170.5) vs. Forrest Petz (170)

[The HOFF]

Escudero weighs in at 159lbs...interesting

I just jumped all over Oliveira +175 and took Oliveira by submission at +465.

[The HOFF]

Tibau weighs-in comfortably at 154...looks in great shape. Cole Miller has made a big mistake getting in Pearson's face like that...feeling even more confident in my Pearson by TKO/KO bet now!

I have a small bet on Tibau and the weigh in makes me like it a little more. Cole Miller is such a douche. I might get that Pearson prop.

[Shagdogy]

Consider going out of the box here by straddling Oliveira by sub with Efrain by TKO rather than decision.

I take this back. Now that Efrain came in 4lbs. over, I think he will go to a lay-n-pray when he gasses. Like the Oliveria by sub/Efrain decision straddle best now. This is why I wait until weigh-ins to wager.

[Vaughany]

I take this back. Now that Efrain came in 4lbs. over, I think he will go to a lay-n-pray when he gasses. Like the Oliveria by sub/Efrain decision straddle best now. This is why I wait until weigh-ins to wager.

Ye I like to try and wait till the weigh-ins before wagering as well but when the Oliveira by sub line at 11/2 (+550) wen it came out last week on Paddypower I knew it would go down and I'd miss out if I didnt jump on it fast - it's now at 9/2 on paddypower I think. I also thought the Escudero by decision at 11/4 would worsen but it hasn't. I am glad that I resisted betting on Hamann before the weigh-ins as after seeing the size advantage that Kingsbury will have I'm not so confident!

[Pratik]

Yeah Olivera seems like a good play here now. This is like second time Escuedero came in overweight and hes got a hole with submission defense. Also yeah i saw the weigh ins and man Kingsbury does seem pretty huge.

[Vrakas]

good fight card and the best thing is that its free.

[The HOFF]

I am glad that I resisted betting on Hamann before the weigh-ins as after seeing the size advantage that Kingsbury will have I'm not so confident!

Yeah. Do you know where Kingsbury has been training? He was a chump in his UFC appearances, but the right camp can turn people around. Hamman doesn't have a glass jaw but I would still call it soft. Kingsbury line is getting better after the weigh ins which is confusing.

[terpkeg]

Yeah. Do you know where Kingsbury has been training? He was a chump in his UFC appearances, but the right camp can turn people around. Hamman doesn't have a glass jaw but I would still call it soft. Kingsbury line is getting better after the weigh ins which is confusing.

He trains at AKA.

"It will have been nearly one year since Kingsbury last set foot in the octagon. The American Kickboxing Academy fighter most recently fought the Afro-puffed Razak Al-Hussan at UFC 104 this past October and won by split decision.

Earlier this year, Kingsbury trained in Thailand and did some traveling with fellow AKA fighter Mike Swick"

Hamman just seems so much more explosive and I dont think Kindsbury has the wrestling to take him down and keep him down consistantly. However, there is no telling how much Kingsbury has improved in the past yr.

[koscheckbaby]

5dimes has Ross by TKO/KO at like +430 now. I got it at near +500. This result is pretty much academic. I have never seen a prop bet so obvious at such awesome odds

[Eccocide]

5dimes has Ross by TKO/KO at like +430 now. I got it at near +500. This result is pretty much academic. I have never seen a prop bet so obvious at such awesome odds

Its a possibility by Pearson is not a power puncher. He hasn't really tko'ed anyone in 2 and a half years (Doctor stopped the Riley fight because of a cut). I think it all depends on how reckless Miller gets. If he gets wild and sloppy and leaves his chin out then it can definitely be nighty-night.

[The HOFF]

He trains at AKA.

"It will have been nearly one year since Kingsbury last set foot in the octagon. The American Kickboxing Academy fighter most recently fought the Afro-puffed Razak Al-Hussan at UFC 104 this past October and won by split decision.

Earlier this year, Kingsbury trained in Thailand and did some traveling with fellow AKA fighter Mike Swick"

Hamman just seems so much more explosive and I dont think Kindsbury has the wrestling to take him down and keep him down consistantly. However, there is no telling how much Kingsbury has improved in the past yr.

Thanks for the info. I think I'll just stay away from this fight. I've already got enough on other dogs for the night.

[The HOFF]

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[The HOFF]

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[The HOFF]

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