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Mania 1 and 2 prelims -
145 lbs.: Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Sayles
Kyle Nelson (12-2) brought a six-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, which saw him face Carlos Diego Ferreira on less than a month’s turnaround. Despite fighting above his natural weight class, Nelson gave a good account of himself before Ferreira’s ground-and-pound proved too much for him.
“The Monster” will have three inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach on Matt Sayles (7-2).
“Robo” scored impressive knockouts on both “Lookin’ for a Fight” and the Contender Series to earn himself a UFC contract. He debuted last August against Sheymon Moraes, who used his superior technical striking to turn aside a late surge from Sayles and walk away with the decision victory. All but one of his pro wins have come by form of knockout.
I’m still fairly high on Sayles, all things considered. Sheymon Moraes is a beast, and losing to him in a pure striking battle is no shame. “Robo” still has great takedown defense and ridiculous power in his right hand, and against a generalist in Nelson, he ought to shine.
Nelson’s greatest advantage here is the height and reach disparity; he’s no slouch on the feet, and even if Sayles’ defensive wrestling is too stout for Nelson to get his top game going, this isn’t a wash. Still, I don’t believe he can stay away from Sayles’ power long enough to get his game going. “Robo” gets in the UFC win column with a quick finish.
Prediction: Sayles via first-round knockout
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265 lbs.: Arjan Singh Bhullar vs. Juan Adams
Arjan Singh Bhullar (8-1) cruised to victory in his UFC debut against Luis Henrique and looked poised to do the same against Adam Wieczorek, only to get caught in UFC’s second-ever omoplata after a dominant first round. Undaunted, he returned six months later to dominate Marcelo Golm in Moncton.
He is five inches shorter than Juan Adams (5-0) and will give up 5.5 inches of reach.
“The Kraken” dispatched his first three professional opponents in less than seven combined minutes to set up a shot on “Contender Series,” where he pounded out Shawn Teed late in the first round. He went on to debut against Chris De La Rocha, and despite fighting without his contact lenses, secured another stoppage win early in the third.
All of his professional and amateur wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Adams clearly has a ton of potential and I’m willing to cut him some slack for that last performance because of the aforementioned contacts. At the same time, Bhullar looked better than ever against another huge man in Golm and is the best wrestler Adams has ever faced by a huge margin. Further, despite Adams’ height and reach advantages, he doesn’t do a great job of maintaining range, which should allow the shorter man to land punches and tie up for takedowns.
Adams can definitely win this if he straightens out his punches and shows better cardio than last time. Based on their most recent appearances, though, expect Bhullar to empty Adams’ gas tank with constant wrestling and cruise to a decision victory from there.
Prediction: Bhullar via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Mitch Gagnon vs. Cole Smith
Mitch Gagnon (12-4) got off to a roaring start in the Octagon, winning four of his first five fights and taking home two performance bonuses along the way. He currently finds himself on a two-fight losing streak, tapping to Renan Barão and suffering a decision loss to Matthew Lopez.
This will be his first fight in 2.5 years and just his second since 2014.
Cole Smith (6-0) may not be saving humanity from the Locust Horde, but he’s yet to taste defeat as a professional. He won the Battlefield Fight League Bantamweight title in 2017 and defended it twice, most recently choking out Tyler Wilson in 86 seconds this past January.
“The Cole Train” replaces the injured Brian Kelleher on a month’s notice.
If Gagnon was at his best, he’d torch Smith. He’s every bit the wrestler and slugger Smith is, with an added dose of explosiveness. Unfortunately, Gagnon is now 34 and coming off a huge layoff. Considering his gas tank was always his greatest enemy, that doesn’t bode well.
Though I don’t see Smith going super far as a generalist, he’s tough and skilled enough to survive Gagnon’s early burst. Smith uses his own wrestling to outlast a strong start and take home a clear decision.
Prediction: Smith via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Macy Chiasson vs. Sarah Moras
Macy Chiasson (4-0) ran the table on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28 as part of Team Gastelum, scoring a pair of (technical) knockout finishes in the house before choking out Pannie Kianzad at the Finale. Her drop to Bantamweight proved fruitful, as she violently knocked out Gina Mazany in less than two minutes at UFC 235.
She steps in for castmate Leah Letson on one month’s notice.
Sarah Moras (5-4)grappled her way to the semifinals of TUF 18 before running into eventual winner Julianna Peña, who finished her with a second-round guillotine. She’s gone 2-4 in the Octagon itself, most recently suffering decision losses to Lucie Pudilova and Talita Bernardo.
“Cheesecake” will give up two inches of height and five inches of reach to Chiasson.
Moras is yet another example of what happens when you have quality jiu-jitsu without the wrestling to back it up. “Cheesecake” is 2-3 in UFC and could easily be 1-4, all because she can’t regularly secure takedowns and top control.
Chiasson, meanwhile, just smashed someone in Mazany who has pretty much the same problems. Up against a bigger, stronger opponent with stout grappling of her own, Moras’ chances are slim. Chiasson mauls her in the opening minutes.
Prediction: Chiasson via first-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Vince Morales
Aiemann Zahabi — brother of coaching legend Firas — stopped his first six professional opponents in less than one round apiece, but had to settle for a judges’ decision in his UFC debut against Reginaldo Vieira. His next fight saw him face top prospect Ricardo Ramos in a competitive bout that ended abruptly thanks to a Ramos spinning elbow.
This will be his first fight since that defeat in Nov. 2017.
Vince Morales (8-3) came up short on the Contender Series, badly hurting Domingo Pilarte but ultimately succumbing to the taller man’s venomous grappling. After a victory in Bellator, Morales answered the call when Frankie Saenz suffered an injury, facing and falling to Song Yadong on short notice in Beijing.
He has knocked out five pro opponents and submitted another two.
Zahabi is still a solid fighter and his grappling skill makes him a threat to the striking-focused Morales. The question is how good he’ll look after the huge layoff. Though I have my concerns on that front, the stylistic matchup is far enough in his favor that I’m comfortable picking him.
Zahabi failed to impress against other strong grapplers in Vieira and Ramos. Against a striking specialist with a limited ground game, I expect him to look a lot better. He wears Morales down for a round and a half or so before locking up a decision.
Prediction: Zahabi via second-round submission
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170 lbs.: Nordine Taleb vs. Kyle Prepolec
Despite two unsuccessful TUF bids, Nordine Taleb (14-6) opened his Octagon career 6-2, capped off by a bonus-winning knockout of Danny Roberts. He has suffered stoppage losses in his last two, however, tapping to Claudio Silva and falling to ground-and-pound from Sean Strickland.
He stands four inches taller than Kyle Prepolec (12-5) at 6’1.”
Prepolec hit a 2-3 skid early in his career, including a submission loss to Kevin Lee, before embarking on his current run. He claimed the BTC 165-pound title last June, then defeated late replacement Cody Pfister this past March at a 160-pound catchweight. He replaces the injured Siyar Bahadurzada on a week’s notice.
Prepolec is a decent fighter, maybe not UFC-caliber, but respectable. Unfortunately, he’s a decent Lightweight going up against a colossal Welterweight. Taleb can hold his own on both the feet and mat, and combined with his sheer physicality, he looks to have a massive edge.
Pfister — a fairly terribly wrestler all things considered — managed to get in on Prepolec’s hips multiple times and would have taken him down with a little better craft. Taleb, a much larger and more technical grappler, should have a field day if he doesn’t just elect to dominate on the feet. Taleb’s size, power and wrestling ability allow him to dominate everywhere, taking home either a late finish or a wide decision.
Prediction: Taleb via unanimous decision
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Originally Posted by TPowell
PaperTrail07 gave bjpenn85 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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