Originally Posted by
turbozed
Alright I didn't do any long breakdowns this time around because there was a lot of tape to watch and those takes a while to do. Still want to weigh in on a few fights and seek out different opinions.
- GDR vs Pennington -
Of course there is a very obvious grappler vs striker dynamic here, but I keep hearing people say that GDR is dead on her back. Looking through tape and the last time she was actually put on her back was in 2013, and against the greatest female bantamweight ever. Some research and it appears that GDR got her purple belt in jiu jitsu 3 years later in 2016. So she has worked on her grappling. Most tellingly is her improvement in TDD. She didn't look all that great defending TDs against even 115 lber Anna Elmose. Less than a year later, she stuffs 8/8 takedown attempts by Holly (I heard this fact but haven't double checked). She looked strong clinching against one of the strongest clinchers at 135 (Holly was holding Cyborg stationary for long periods of time even). There's real progress in the grappling department there, and Rocky really isn't that great of a submission artist. I don't see GDR getting caught unless she's hit the wall due to age, or unless she's out of shape and gasses like Andrade did (who was fighting 2 weight classes up against a giant BW in Rocky).
Rocky, on the other hand, has very lazy TD attempts in open space and seems to prefer bum rushing girls to the fence. The way she charged with her head down let Nunes just grab a thai plum and punish her with knees. GDR's clinch is just as good if not better, and she just has to watch her balance, which is pretty good. If GDR can fight off Holly's fence takedowns, Rocky should have even less of a chance.
More important here is the disparity in striking skill. Rocky has good fundamental punching technique but her lack of combination punching made her a sitting duck against Nunes. GDR's strikes are pinpoint accurate, and she's not there to be hit on the counter.
Then you have the fact that Rocky just went through a hellacious ass whooping just 5 months ago where she injured her leg. It feels like she's being rushed into this hometown card and all the interviews make it sound like she got way out of shape (170 lbs wtf) and wishes she had more time to rehab her leg. A fat and less mobile Rocky is just the wrong direction when facing someone like GDR. Now with a botched weight cut, GDR TKO is more likely than Rocky submission in my opinion. But GDR decision would be my pick. And -170 was a play for me.
- Maycee Barber vs Hannah Ciphers -
I've been keeping an eye on "The Future Barber" mainly because she's got a ton of holes in her game and I wanted a good spot to fade her. This is probably not the spot to do that though. Ciphers is a tough brawler but she is absolutely tiny for the division (was able to fight at 110 lbs on short notice just a year ago) AND she has a very bad ground game. Maycee is probably going to look to throw her 5 kick to 1 punch offense with that bug eyed stare at Ciphers. While this might work for a bit at range, Barber looks terribly uncomfortable in the pocket. Maybe her striking has improved but, on the feet, I expect Ciphers to hit her a few times and make her take the fight to the ground where Barber can pound out Ciphers or make her give up the back for a choke. The two are both pretty aggressive and are more offense than defense so I liked the under 2.5 at +130 and some Maycee sub (although I think maybe GnP is also likely). We don't know how Maycee reacts to getting cracked either, so the under takes a Ciphers TKO into account (which at around +980 wasn't bad).
- ABC vs Ashley Yoder -
I feel like I'm alone on this one. And yes I have a habit of picking the somewhat athletic but disappointing WMMA flake. It worked out for me betting Jessica Eye vs JRC, and on Chookagian vs Hill. I'm going to have to go with the unpopular girl here again.
Yoder is getting some respect here because the way she fought in her losses was admirable. Yes she made the Kish fight close, and she had her moments in the Hill fight. And took Dern to a split decision. ABC on the other hand has been absolutely wrecked in her 3 losses in the UFC, only managing to beat the nut low fighters in Magana and Elmose (poor Elmose who had to fight GDR of all people 2 weights up). After tape though, it's pretty clear that Yoder's success was just as due to poor performances on her opponents part than her own awkward and sometimes effective style.
Kish was making all sorts of poor fight choices in her fight with Yoder, selling out on high risk subs and putting herself on her back. This put Yoder in good spots many times in their fight, but she wasn't able to do anything with them in terms of GnP or hutning for subs. Instead, she showed her poor positional control by letting Kish escape each time, sometimes by just hip thrusting and bench pressing Yoder off of her. This same lack of strength and positional control she showed against Hill. She was able to get Hill down, once against the fence and another with an extremely rare shot from distance. In the first TD, Hill stood up almost immediately. In the second, she was only able to stay on top for half a minute landing nothing before trying to jump on Hill's back and letting her get back up. It's worth noting that Yoder hasn't subbed anyone besides low level girls using an armbar. This speaks to maybe her lack of strength or control or both.
ABC is faster and more athletic. Her vaunted boxing isn't great, but it's still a level higher in terms of speed and balance than the slow and telegraphed striking of Yoder. ABC has been able to maintain position and land GnP on girls who admittedly aren't high level (the best maybe being Jamie Moyle). However, she does do damage and scores points, unlike Yoder who is constantly scrambling for the sake of it.
ABC's losses also don't seem too bad in retrospect. She fought off Suarez going strength for strength for most of Rd1 before finally succombing to a dominant position and getting pounded out. She even had her moments against a very strong Aspen Ladd way back in the day. Yoder is closer to the Maganas of the world than the Suarez's in terms of strong positional grappling, and is nowhere near as slick as a Calvillo. I expect the grappling exchanges to be back and forth, but it's more likely than not that ABC ends up looking better due to more time controlling and actually landing ground strikes.
With a slight advantage to ABC in all the important areas, I make her out to be a small favorite here. +140 therefore is a great line for a favorite and ABC by decision +200 was probably the best value for this matchup.
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