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UFC Fight Night: Volkan vs. Smith (October 27, 2018)
FS1, 10:00 pm ET
Volkan Oezdemir vs Anthony Smith
Artem Lobov vs Zubaira Tukhugov
Misha Cirkunov vs Patrick Cummins
Andre Soukhamthath vs Gavin Tucker
Ed erman vs Gian Villante
Alex Garcia vs Court McGee
FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Sean Strickland vs Nordine Taleb
Thibault Gouti vs Nasrat HHaqparast
Chris Fishgold vs Calvin Kattar
Talita Bernardo vs Sarah Moras
UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
Te Edwards vs Don Madge
Arjan Bhullar vs Marcelo Golm
Jessin Ayari vs Stevie Ray
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Yea but we have 2 Bellator cards on October 12th and 13th, plus a decent PFL card on the 13th.Originally Posted by Demonata
This is so far away...
MMA dead for a while now.. Geez...
Thank God for MLB playoffs, NHL, NFL and the start to NBA now.. It's all heating up in other sports now..
Who's your pick to win the World Series, Jibs?MMA dead for a while now.. Geez
Thank God for MLB playoffs, NHL, NFL and the start to NBA now.. It's all heating up in other sports now..
Brewers if they get past the Dodgers.. That team is red hot right now and flying under the radar big time.. 9-1 in their last 10 games.. Swept their playoff series.. Team might surprise..
I'm a Dodger fan from the crib and bleed blue but this Brewers team I think may take the series.. I hope I'm wrong..
I got Brewers and Sox in the WS... Brewers surprising everyone then...
Bold pick. I've got some futures on Astros and Dodgers World Series so I'm hoping for a rematch of last year. Even have a Dodgers World Series wager at (+2200). Should be a fine NLCS/ALCS round.
I got Dodgers vs red Sox world series. Would be epic. Game 7 sale vs Kershaw. That's my dream.
Nice Hugo!!! I fell asleep on the MLB futures this year.. I have no futures pending
Boston wins the World Series and Anthony Smith gets the knock out. Have a good night/day.
On all the favorites so far in the main card.. Don't see any upsets happening with the open lines so far..
This is so far away...
It's a good thing. We need to recharge, UFC 229 was too overwhelming.
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5 UFC events in november.This is so far away...
4 in december.
9 UFC events in 2 months. Then we got 5 bellator events on top of that.
Good profit potential within a short span of time for MMA, if you can hit your picks.
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Oh yeah... Tell em Uncle Chael sent yeah.... Houston, we have a problem!!!
Anyone else that thinks Haqparast is way too big of a favorite vs. Gouti?
WTF?
Nasrat Haqparast (9-2) discusses his upcoming fight against Thibault Gouti (12-4) at UFC Fight Night 138. Nasrat also talks about his win over Marc Diakiese, training with middleweights ahead of his matchup and why he wants to fight on UFC Toronto.
Haqparast trains with, looks and fights like Kelvin Gastelum. (That's high praise bro. High praise.)
His loss against Marcin Held was on 1 week short notice (if I remember right) & it was still a competitive fight.
liking Volkan here
and i promised ill never bet on MJ again , hope he gets kod
Background
While the UFC has hosted many events across Canada, the event will mark the promotion's first visit to New Brunswick.[1][2]
A light heavyweight bout between former UFC Light Heavyweight Championship challenger Volkan Oezdemir and Anthony Smith will serve as the event headliner.[3]
Zubaira Tukhugov was scheduled to face Artem Lobov at the event. However, it was reported that Tukhugov was removed from the fight due his role in the UFC 229 post-fight melee.[4] Lobov is expected to face Michael Johnson at the event.[5]
Gavin Tucker was scheduled to face Andre Soukhamthath at the event. However, Tucker pulled out of the fight in early October citing an undisclosed injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Jonathan Martinez.[6]
I might have to take Anthony Smith this weekend boys .... Go Sox Go!!
I believe he's pretty solidly with Tristar now, though he had been at Kings MMA in the past.
Halfway through capping this card and I see a few dogs worth looking at already:
Jessin Ayari - He's younger and he's longer than Ray who has never really been particularly impressive IMO. Ayari has a Dean Lister brown belt and numerous sub wins on his resume. Trains often with Peter Sobotta. With his grappling he at least has one very solid skill, which I think is more than we can say for Ray who is just OK. Not a ton of value here, but he's live.
Talita Bernardo - Her standup is absolutely terrible, but lucky for her Moras has very little interesting in fighting at range, and even though she will hold a standup advantage, will almost always close the distance. Once on the inside, Moras's body has the structural integrity of chewed bubble gum and she crumbles to her back on the mat when she inevitably lacks the drive to finish her shots. Moras is very good off of her back, but Bernardo has high level BJJ and has never been subbed. Solid opportunity to grind a win from top position for her. Expect this to be an ugly fight though, and Moras is the hometown Canadian here even though she lives and trains in Vegas now.
Don Madge - Just a hunch. Hard to find much other than training videos of him, but it's clear that he is a talented striker. What's more is that Edwards has never won a fight outside of round 1 and Madge seems to have some solid grit, high volume and pace, and good cardio. Due to his power Edwards is the obvious favorite, but I could see this fight becoming much closer to a pick-em in rounds 2 and 3. I wouldn't expect Edwards to fold mentally though with his military background as well as collegiate wrestling background. This fight could turn into a war if there's no early finish.
Just now looking into McGee vs. Garcia and may possibly see some upside to McGee here thanks to his durability and pace. Garcia is low volume and questionable gas tank. Garcia fights out of Canada though, and in a fight that's likely to see the cards he has the Canadian factor working in his favor.
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Prelim write ups and predictions...
170 lbs.: Nordine Taleb vs. Sean Strickland
Two unsuccessful appearances on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) weren’t enough to keep Nordine Taleb (14-5) from making a name for himself in the Octagon, where he has gone 6-3. Most recently, he went from scoring a 59-second knockout of Danny Roberts to suffering a massive upset defeat to Claudio Silva in Liverpool.
Half of his wins have come via (technical) knockout, two of them in UFC.
Sean Strickland (19-3) opened his UFC career 5-1, including a split decision over top British prospect Tom Breese at UFC 199. He’s just 1-2 since, suffering one-sided losses to Kamaru Usman and Elizeu Zaleski.
“Tarzan” will have two inches of reach on Taleb, though their heights are identical.
Now, isn’t this an odd one? Taleb looks to be on the wrong end of the size gap for once in his career, taking away one of his key attributes, but Strickland is one of the biggest underachievers in UFC. I wouldn’t be surprised by anything short of one of these guys hitting a gogoplata.
This fight may boil down to Strickland’s passivity, which allowed a smaller man in Santiago Ponzinibbio to tee off on him and should have cost him a decision against both Luke Barnatt and Tom Breese. Strickland should land plenty of jabs, but Taleb’s low kicks and greater willingness to throw power shots should let him eke out a win.
Prediction: Taleb via split decision
155 lbs.: Thibault Gouti vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Thibault Gouti (12-4) — who knocked out UFC veteran Anton Kuivanen to get a spot on the roster after a one-and-done TUF 22 appearance — is just 1-4 in the Octagon, suffering three stoppage losses along the way. He did give a good account of himself last time, however, earning a pyrrhic victory against Sage Northcutt in the eyes of most mixed martial arts (MMA) media, but ultimately going home empty handed with a decision defeat.
All but one of “GT’s” 10 stoppage wins have come inside the first round.
Nasrat Haqparast (9-2) scored eight consecutive knockouts before stepping up on short notice to face Marcin Held in his Octagon debut. He lost the decision despite dropping the Polish veteran, but bounced back strong with a dominant victory over Marc Diakiese in July.
He boasts six first-round finishes of his own.
I get wanting to go slow with a promising young prospect, but this seems like a considerable step back for Haqparast. Gouti doesn’t have the wrestling to shut him down the way Held did, nor the durability for extended trading on the feet. On top of that, Haqparast looks to be the faster and stronger of the two by a fair margin, leaving Gouti’s prospects dire no matter where the fight goes.
I genuinely see Haqparast getting ranked within 12 months if he’s given the opportunity, while Gouti has always just barely toed the line of being UFC-caliber. Haqparast channels doppelganger Kelvin Gastelum for an early left hand knockout.
Prediction: Haqparast via first-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Calvin Kattar vs. Chris Fishgold
Calvin Kattar (18-3) got off to a red-hot start in the Octagon with upsets of Andre Fili and Shane Burgos, the latter of whom he knocked out in violent fashion to earn “Performance of the Night.” His momentum came to a halt against Brazil’s Renato Moicano, who snapped Kattar’s 10-fight win streak via unanimous decision.
He stands three inches taller than Chris Fishgold (17-1-1) at 5’11.”
Fishgold enters the Octagon on a seven-fight win streak that includes six first-round finishes. He choked out Adam Boussif in 93 seconds for the vacant Cage Warriors Lightweight title, then successfully defended it three times before dropping to 145 pounds for his UFC debut.
He has stopped 12 opponents via submission, 10 of them in the first round.
Fishgold is a quality addition to UFC’s roster, a rare English wrestler with a strong submission game. I expect the drop to Featherweight to work well for him, allowing him to overpower opponents with even greater ease. The issue is that his stand up relies on aggression and throwing hard rather than any real cohesive attack, and even though that can be enough to get opponents to back up to the cage, it’s a worrying flaw against a boxer of Kattar’s caliber.
Though Moicano found considerable success against Kattar despite visibly rougher striking, “The Boston Finisher” has the takedown defense and overall craft to ruin Fishgold’s night. So long as he can avoid getting pressed against the cage, he should be able to counter-punch his way to victory.
Prediction: Kattar via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Sarah Moras vs. Talita Bernardo
Sarah Moras (5-3) — representing Team Tate — reached the semifinals on TUF 18 before falling to teammate and eventual winner Julianna Pena by submission. She’s alternated victories and defeats in the Octagon itself, most recently losing a decision to Lucie Pudilova to even her Octagon record at 2-2.
She has armbarred and knocked out two professional opponents apiece.
Talita Bernardo (4-3) stepped up on short notice to face Marion Reneau in her UFC debut last year and was rewarded for her bravery by getting pounded out late in the third round. She returned to action four months later, lasting the distance against Irene Aldana but losing a wide unanimous decision.
All four of her wins have come by first-round submission.
Here we have a clash of submission artists held back by horribly inadequate wrestling. Both Moras’ takedown accuracy and defense are below 20 percent and Bernardo was an eye-popping 1/11 in trying to take down Aldana. Match ups between submission specialists of similar calibers often boil down to which one can wind up on top more often, which doesn’t seem easy to figure out here.
I’m leaning toward Moras, if only because of her superior strength of schedule. She spends enough time on top to take the decision.
Prediction: Moras via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Te Edwards vs. Don Madge
Five first-round knockouts in five wins brought Te Edwards (6-1) to “Contender Series,” where he faced Austin Tweedy in June. He wound up making quite the convincing case, knocking Tweedy stiff in just 28 seconds.
He stands four inches shorter than Don Madge (7-3-1) at 5’8.”
South Africa’s Madge went from Muay Thai to mixed martial arts (MMA), where he currently rides a four-fight win streak. That streak includes a rear-naked choke submission of Dave Mazany, which earned him the EFC Lightweight title.
He was originally slated to debut against David Teymur in May, only to withdraw because of an injury.
The interesting thing about this fight is that Edwards — a quality wrestler who has fallen in love with striking — needs to backpedal. Madge is an experienced, capable Muay Thai artist whose technique in the standup far outstrips Edwards,’ meaning it would be in the latter’s best interest to fall back on his takedowns.
Whether he’s willing to do so after all the success he’s had knocking people senseless is anyone’s guess. His superior speed and power should work out well for him even if he isn’t, though, and just the threat of the takedown ought to be enough to let him land the big one at some point.
Prediction: Edwards via second-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Arjan Singh Bhullar vs. Marcelo Golm
The wrestling pedigree of Arjan Singh Bhullar (7-1) served him well in his Octagon debut, which saw him defeat Brazil’s Luis Henrique. He looked on track to do the same to Adam Wieczorek, only to tap to the second omoplata in UFC history.
He stands two inches shorter than Marcelo Golm (6-1), but will have a one-inch reach advantage.
Golm needed just 128 seconds to dispatch Christian Colombo in his UFC debut for his sixth consecutive first-round finish. He couldn’t stop experienced spoiler Timothy Johnson from doing his thing, however, losing a unanimous decision in February.
Five of his six stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
The sticking point for me is that Golm had few answers for Timothy Johnson’s pressure and grappling, but didn’t surrender a single takedown, instead succumbing to Johnson’s striking output and the looming threat of a shot. Bhullar has a superior wrestling pedigree to Johnson, but his standup is nearly nonexistent, making it difficult to get an accurate picture of how this is going to go down.
At the end of the day, I have more faith in Bhullar’s ability to get the takedown than in Golm’s ability to execute his striking while simultaneously shutting Bhullar’s grappling down. Expect 10 minutes or so of top control from Bhullar as he cruises to another decision victory.
Prediction: Bhullar via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Stevie Ray vs. Jessin Ayari
Stevie Ray (21-8)opened his Octagon career 5-1, including a bonus-winning knockout of Leonardo Mafra, before hitting his current 0-2 slump. “Braveheart” last fought in March against Kajan Johnson, who used his range to take a split decision over Ray.
Eight of his 14 stoppage wins have come by submission
Jessin Ayari (16-4) made his promotional debut in September of 2016, delighting the German crowd with a split decision over veteran Jim Wallhead. He didn’t have quite as much luck against the returning Darren Till, who missed weight but dominated Ayari with his striking.
This will be both his Lightweight debut and his first fight in 17 months.
This one looks to be a bit of a breather for Ray, who’s the cleaner striker of the two and has the takedown defense to keep it standing the entire fight. Ayari just doesn’t seem to have much to offer him, especially not after being out for 1.5 years, and I don’t think dropping 15 pounds will be the panacea he needs to compete at the highest level.
Ayari proved against Till that he could take a shot, at least, which ought to at least let him see the final bell while Ray chews him up on the feet.
Prediction: Ray via unanimous decision
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Pre-tape I liked Volkan but starting to swing more toward Smith. Definitely think there's value on some of the Smith props. May also just look to live-bet Smith, if this goes past R1 I favor Smith.
I'm going with Volkan... I think he drops Smith.. He's more skilled standing.. Odds reflect that unfortunately..
Tell me more about thisI'm going with Volkan... I think he drops Smith.. He's more skilled standing.. Odds reflect that unfortunately..
MMA Pros Pick
I'm just gonna keep it simple.. Volkan coming off a loss.. 15-2 record with 11 of those 15 wins by coming of way of KO... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Volkan-Oezdemir-58503 I think he hits harder the Smith for starters.. Smith has a chin though..
Now Smith on the flip, good hard nosed fighter, can take a punch with the best of them.. Has tasted defeat 13 times though, mostly exposed on the ground though with those losses.. His last 2 win stoppages were by washed up old veteran fighters.. Volkan a different beast... Thiago exposed him before that.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Smith-29470
I don't think Volkan gets punked in this fight standing.. That's my MMA logic in a nut shell Hugo.. I do think Smith by KO is a hedge to think about as I might play it... It's gonna be a KO either way as neither of these fighters like to go ground or decision..
1041 Oezdemir wins by TKO/KO -134
1037 Smith wins by TKO/KO +245
Yeah I do think it will be a KO either way as well. Volkan is dangerous early but I don't think he has a super deep striking toolkit nor does he have great cardio to win the late rounds. Neither man is much of an offensive wrestler but Oezdemir's Takedown Defense and get up game is quite poor if it does happen to hit the mat. I like Smith's diverse Power Muay Thai game to get this fight won.
Since Shagy posted his thoughts on this fight, its' only fair I write something up too.
I hit Bernardo around +170 (wish I had gotten in sooner when she was +190-200 but oh well). Here's the breakdown:
We are all pretty familiar with Moras at this point. Girl has some really awkward striking, loves to get put on her back and stay there hunting for submissions, has a style built to lose rounds, and has lackluster cardio. On the plus side, she's pretty tough, has an active guard when it comes to strikes and subs, doesn't give up, and looked a bit better in her striking in her last fight against Pudilova, as well as looking to get top position for the first time ever. Moras has 2 wins in the UFC not counting TUF fights. Her first was against Alexis Dufresne who really just had her way with Moras wrestling and putting her on the mat. Dufresne somehow gassed out in 1 round but still almost managed to make it very close (with most media thinking Dufresne wins). Her other win is against Evans-Smith where she found an armbar and, instead of just powering out of it as all her opponents do, AES found a way to slowly let the sub get deeper.
Moras finds a way to get on her back and outwrestled with the exception of getting a TD and top position in Rd1 of the Pudilova fight. It was pretty hilarious seeing strawweight Andrade toss her around in several different ways. While Andrade is a freak of nature, she looked every bit 15-20 lbs lighter than Moras, and Moras nevertheless got outmsuscled by every other girl she fought. This leads me to think that, depsite her huge thighs and glutes, she's actually not very strong.
Bernardo is more of a mystery. Given her record, she has absolutely no reason to be in the UFC except for an emergency repalcement, which she was for the Reneau fight. Her best win was against Iren Racz who doesn't even have a winning record. And that fight ended with Racz offering absolutely no resistance to an arm triangle and pass to side control. Bernardo has looked absolutely terrible in the UFC. Her striking looks shockingly bad as it seems like something she does to keep girls off of her while backing up until she decides when to shoot her next takedown. Her cardio looked awful with her gassing against a 40 year old Reneau. Even fresh, Reneau appeared to be significantly faster than Bernardo.
So why back Bernardo here? Well, the main reason is that this is possibly the best type of style matchup she can get in the UFC. Moras is as foot-slow as Talita, and her willingness to engage in grappling, and accept the bottom position is exactly what Bernardo is looking for. Bernardo is a BJJ black belt who seems to have a decent smothering top game. Her takedowns are the bright spot in her incomplete game and we've seen her shoot several types of TDs, including double legs, trips. More promising is that she can chain wrestle. Although Bernardo is unathletic, I think she may have a strength advantage over Moras here when it comes to just sloth-pace BJJ.
It'll just take one takedown a round for Talita to get top position and control Moras through the round. The stand-up between the two should be comical and, although Moras striking looked pretty decent against Pudilova (Bernardo was able to land someting on Aldana late too, but she's still far worse), I doubt that a ref would be looking to stand them up quickly for more of that sort of ugliness. Bernardo has shown some bright spots though. The first round against Reneau, where she came in on days notice, displaiyed some good grappling and wrestling. She fell off a cliff instantly but it was encouraging seeing how tough she was throughout that whole fight. Despite looking as gassed as any wmma fighter I've ever seen in the 3rd round, she still fought off a triangle from Reneau, who is good at that technique. This leads me to believe she won't be easily subbed in Moras's guard, unless it's Rd1 and she gets caught in something unexpected or in transition. Bernardo's toughness and willingness to fight was also in display against Aldana where, despite getting destroyed on the feet, she was able to get the fight to the ground and keep it there for a bit. Aldana was able to get to her feet eventually, but Moras has shown zero get-ups in her career.
So if we assume that Bernardo continues to look like shit without any improvements, and her cardio is really that terrible (and not excused by very short notice or diminished by getting punched repeatedly in the face), then she deserves to be an underdog at current odds. However, if we assume that she is a stronger and more technical grappler than Moras, and that the favorable matchup will be much more in her comfort zone, then we might be looking at a different Bernardo that shows and expands on the few positive moments she's had so far. In the most generous light, and if we know this fight takes place on the ground with Bernardo on top, then its really her fight to lose.
Volkan just fought the champ and lost so he's gonna be hungry... Volkan has fought the better competition lately compared to Smith. These trends are glaring out to me..
Volkan only lost one fight his entire career before facing DC and getting stopped, DC the best in the division. Before that he beat some damn good fighters and won 5 straight... I think he rebounds against Smith in this fight.... I think he knocks Smith out and probably in the 1st round...
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Volkan-Oezdemir-58503
1025 Oezdemir wins in round 1 +191
What's up Beelz? Still hanging around I see. Hope you're winning some money in this gambling predicting madness
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