mma mania undercard write ups -
135 lbs.: eddie wineland vs. Alejandro perez
with his ufc career on the ropes following losses to johnny eduardo and bryan caraway, eddie wineland (23-12-1) smashed frankie saenz and takeya mizugaki to prove he was still a factor at 135 pounds. He couldn’t quite chase down john dodson his next time out, however, dropping a decision in nashville.
This will be his first fight in 15 months.
Alejandro perez (20-6-1) has not tasted defeat since his second ufc bout, going 5-0-1 with wins over some solid bantamweight competition. His three-fight win streak includes decisions over andre soukhamthath and iuri alcantara, plus a knockout of matthew lopez in april.
He has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted another five.
I’ve probably said it before, but i’ll say it again: It’s hard to get a bead on perez. His wins over soukhamthath and alcantara looked to be products of his opponents’ bad gameplans and he was losing to lopez before the latter fell apart. Though wineland is past his best, he has the takedown defense to keep it on the feet and the power to crack perez’s shaky jaw.
“diablito” has a habit of surprising both me and the bookies, but wineland just seems all wrong for him. So long as he’s willing to let his hands go, wineland catches him with a right hand sometime in the second.
prediction: Wineland via second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: darren elkins vs. alexander volkanovski
darren elkins (24-5) came out of nowhere to rocket up the featherweight rankings with six consecutive wins, four of them upsets. After defeating mirsad bektic and dennis bermudez last year, “the damage” began his 2018 campaign with a comeback submission of michael johnson in st. Louis.
He stands four inches taller than alexander volkanovski (17-1) at 5’10,” though their reaches are identical.
Volkanovski has won 14 consecutive fights, 11 by stoppage, since his lone professional loss, including four ufc victories. His latest win was his most brutal yet, a two-round mauling of unbeaten jeremy kennedy that featured some of the most devastating ground-and-pound in recent memory.
Ten of his 13 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
This fight is a stylistic nightmare for elkins, but so were his last three match ups, all of which he won. In other words, logic goes out the window when elkins steps into the cage. I mean, i’m still going to make the logical pick, but i’ll feel
really stupid if i’m wrong again.
Volkanovski is incredibly strong, adept with his takedowns, and downright frightening from top position. Elkins isn’t adept enough on the feet to steer clear of those booming overhand rights, either, and “the great” hasn’t shown any cardio issues despite pushing a torrid pace. He tears up the hyper-durable elkins everywhere the fight goes on his way to a decision win.
prediction: Volkanovski via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: justin scoggins vs. Said nurmagomedov
the enormously talented justin scoggins (11-4) remains unable to stay out of his own way. After dominating josh sampo and ray borg, “tank” tapped to pedro munhoz and yuta sasaki in fights he was dominating up to that point, dropping his recent record to 2-4.
He owns six professional wins and four amateur wins by knockout.
Said nurmagomedov (11-1), fighting out of mark henry’s camp alongside frankie edgar and marlon moraes, made his name on the russian circuit with strong runs in acb and akhmat fight show. Though he lost to fellow ufc competitor magomed bibulatov in the former, he won the latter’s bantamweight grand prix in 2016.
This will be his flyweight debut.
What’s interesting about this fight is that it’s almost a mirror match up. Both men are strong grapplers who utilize offbeat kicks on the feet. Scoggins looks to be the sharper takedown artist and pack more stopping power, but here’s the thing: There is nobody in ufc, maybe nobody in mixed martial arts (mma), who’s failed to live up to his potential more than “tank.” he seems to have this mental block demanding that he wrestle no matter how well he’s doing on the feet and has gotten choked out for doing it three times.
Nurmagomedov is a quality prospect, albeit short on finishing ability. That said, scoggins has all the tools to control this fight wherever it goes. I can’t wait to see how he screws it up this time.
prediction: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission
145 lbs.: kurt holobaugh vs. raoni barcelos
four years removed from his first ufc run and sporting a three-fight win streak, kurt holobaugh (17-4) torched matt bessette on the first episode of dana white’s “tuesday night contender series” to earn himself a contract. Soon after, however, the commission discovered that holobaugh had illegally used an iv to rehydrate, overturning the knockout win to a “no contest” and resulting in a nine-month suspension.
Holobaugh went 8-2 (1 nc) between ufc runs, scoring six non-overturned finishes in that span.
A loss in his second rfa appearance failed to slow raoni barcelos (11-1), who secured the promotion’s featherweight title two fights later. He successfully defended it with wins over upcoming “tuesday night contender series” hopeful bobby moffett and current ufc competitor dan moret.
This will be his first fight in nearly two years, as a planned debut against boston salmon last year fell through.
I was profoundly bummed when we missed out on barcelos vs. Salmon, because that would have been an incredible fight. I’m still excited to see him in the octagon, though. The brazilian is a dangerous counter-puncher with a+ brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials and quality wrestling to back it up. If he weren’t already 33 years old, i’d be touting him as a true blue-chip prospect.
He’s still pretty damn good, though, and his striking style seems like a good answer for holobaugh’s aggression. He’s also the better grappler, so he can fall back on that if holobaugh starts getting to him. Barring the very real possibility of ring rust, barcelos potshots his way to victory.
prediction: Barcelos via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: liz carmouche vs. jennifer maia
consecutive decisions over lauren murphy and katlyn chookagian gave way to a 13-month layoff for liz carmouche (11-6), leaving her with just one fight between april 2015 and dec. 2017. Upon her return, “girl-rilla” faced old rival alexis davis and fought to a contentious split decision loss.
She has stopped five opponents with strikes and submitted another two.
Jennifer maia (15-4-1) enters ufc on a six-fight win streak and with the invicta flyweight belt around her waist. She defeated veteran vanessa porto for the belt back in 2016, then defended it against roxanne modafferi and agnieszka niedzwiedz in headlining appearances.
She has five submissions and two (technical) knockouts of her own.
For those who haven’t seen maia in action, she’s a straightforward muay thai stylist with a quality jab and solid kicks. What she isn’t is terribly adept at defending takedowns, which is more than a bit of a problem against one of the division’s best ground-and-pounders. She found herself on her back more than once against modafferi, who lacks carmouche’s overwhelming physical strength, so that bodes ill for her.
Carmouche’s fight iq has been lacking before and she’s not always the best at finishing takedowns, but she should have the tools to put maia on her back and start bashing away. Ground control and punches from the top seal the deal.
prediction: Carmouche via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: mark de la rosa vs. elias garcia
mark de la rosa (9-1) looked to put the infamy of his legacy fc no-show behind him when he stepped into the cage against tim elliott at ufc 219. It wasn’t quite the triumphant redemption for which “the bumblebee” had hoped, though, as elliott caught him in a bonus-winning anaconda choke early in the second round.
Four of his five submission wins have come by rear-naked choke.
Training at roufusport alongside cousin anthony pettis, elias garcia (5-0) went 5-0 as an amateur before joining the professional ranks in 2013. He returned from a two-year layoff in 2017 to score two submissions, one of them in the first round.
He has scored three wins by submission and one by (technical) knockout.
From what little i’ve seen of garcia, he’s a dangerous ground artist with powerful-but-developing stand up. The issue here is that he’s unproven against quality opposition and has yet to show solid wrestling, while de la rosa is both capable on the feet and dangerous on the mat. Garcia would have to be able to dictate position to reliably win this bout and i’m not convinced that’s in his toolbox.
The potential is definitely there for garcia, but without the ability to put de la rosa on his back, it’s hard to see him getting his hand raised. De la rosa escapes a few hairy submission attempts to piece him up on the feet.
prediction: De la rosa via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: jessica aguilar vs. jodie esquibel
if it’s all the same to you guys, i’m just going to copy-paste what i wrote for this fight last time.
Once arguably the top strawweight on the planet, jessica aguilar (19-6) has struggled to find her footing in ufc, fighting just twice in the last three years and losing both times. The former world series of fighting (wsof) champ was last seen losing a decision to cortney casey last year, making this her first fight in more than 12 months.
“jag” has forced eight opponents to tap as a professional.
Jodie esquibel (6-3) stepped up when the casting call went out for the ultimate fighter (tuf) 23, but ashley yoder ended her run in the elimination round. After splitting fights with alexa grasso and deanna bennett, she made her octagon debut in gdansk in oct. 2017, dropping a decision to local favorite karolina kowalkiewicz.
She stands an inch shorter than aguilar, but will have one inch of reach on her.
I’m honestly not sure what to make of aguilar. Losing to claudia gadelha is perfectly understandable, but the casey loss was downright baffling. Despite taking down her opponent four times, she elected to just stand there and let casey kick her legs with impunity rather than try to establish top control.
Not confidence-inspiring stuff, that.
Luckily for her, esquibel represents a step down in competition. With a history of making 105 pounds and split decisions comprising half of her victories, there’s very little going jodie’s way against the infinitely more proven “jag.” expect aguilar to score regular takedowns en route to a wide decision victory.
prediction: Aguilar via unanimous decision
current ufc “prelims” prediction record for 2018: 92-47
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Originally Posted by Kermit
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