[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FS1, 10:00 pm ET
Junior Dos Santos vs Blagoy Ivanov
Sage Northcutt vs Zak Ottow
Dennis Bermudez vs Rick Glenn
Randy Brown vs Niko Price
Myles Jury vs Chad Mendes
Marion Reneau vs Cat Zingano

FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Alejandro Perez vs Eddie Wineland
Darren Elkins vs Alex Volkanovski
Said Nurmagomedov vs Justin Scoggins
Raoni Barcelos vs Kurt Holobaugh

UFC Fight Pass 6:15 pm ET
Liz Carmouche vs Jennifer Maia
Mark De La Rosa vs Elias Gracia
Jessica Aguilar vs Jodie Esquibel

[Teem]

Tough one to pick. I like Ottow and Wineland for now as dogs. I want to back Elkins here. Especially at these odds. But can Elkin's wrestling negate Volkanovski's? I see Volkanovski getting a few takedowns or holding Elkins against the fence doing what he does best. Elkins can grind though and always finds a way to win. Has Volk proven himself yet from the level of competition he's faced? Maybe Volkanovski takes this by split decision.

[Teem]

This is a must win for Bermudez. Glenn won't be able to stop the takedowns here but he's durable enough to last 15 minutes with Bermudez. Bermudez will be shooting and GnP his way to an easy decision I think. I think he's safe to throw into a parlay as long as the odds don't get more juiced.

[Squareguy]

JDS is going to live behind the jab for this fight. Blagoy looked timid and slow for his last fight and I believe JDS is going to score a lot of easy points on the outside.

[Thrilla]

Current Decimal


Opening

[Thrilla]

The event will mark the promotion's first visit to Idaho.

A heavyweight bout between former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior dos Santos and former WSOF Heavyweight Champion Blagoy Ivanov has been slated to serve as the event headliner.

A strawweight bout between former WSOF Women's Strawweight Champion Jessica Aguilar and Jodie Esquibel was originally expected to take place at UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes. However the bout was removed from the card the day of the event by the NYSAC due to a concern over a medical issue with Aguilar. The pairing was rescheduled for this event.

James Vick was expected to face Paul Felder at the event. However on June 27, Vick was pulled from the bout to act as a replacement against former WSOF Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje at UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick. In turn, Felder was moved to a welterweight bout against Mike Perry at UFC 226.

[Sirius]

I was on Marion Reneau over McMann and she looked her best with a finish...I believe she's an intelligent fighter, not just because she's a teacher...she's looking to contend for a title and Cat is falling.
I'd love to wine and dine and massage Marion...

I'm looking hard at parlaying Marion with Cub (August 4) for +713 odds!

Does Moicano avoid takedowns and get the decision? I think Cub gets them...
That performance Vs. Korean Superboy was awesome and he needs a repeat.

It's another event but thoughts on fading Moicano would be appreciated!

[Sirius]

Interested in odds on total decisions for this card...

[Demonata]

Tough card. Volksnovovski junior dos samtos parlay. Jds bermudez parlay. Ottow straight up. Jury too. Man i can lose tons this card. Im pumped

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was on Marion Reneau over McMann and she looked her best with a finish...I believe she's an intelligent fighter, not just because she's a teacher...she's looking to contend for a title and Cat is falling.
I'd love to wine and dine and massage Marion...

I'm looking hard at parlaying Marion with Cub (August 4) for +713 odds!

Does Moicano avoid takedowns and get the decision? I think Cub gets them...
That performance Vs. Korean Superboy was awesome and he needs a repeat.

It's another event but thoughts on fading Moicano would be appreciated!

That line is definitely too wide for what is likely a striking matchup. Cub is definitely live and I'll be on him.

[Sirius]

I just watched the Kattar fight and I'll reconsider Cub for now...

Also watched the McMann fight and maybe it wasn't Reneau's "best" it was very impressive after a rough first round.
https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Sara...art_1/10209917

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Wow Elkins is coming off wins over Johnson, Bermudez, Bektic and is +280 over Volkanovski who has only really faced Oceanic competition.

[Teem]

Yeah this is Volkanovski's first fight out of Australia too.

[Teem]

Perez/Wineland will be a fight contested on the feet. I can see Perez taking a decision here against Wineland. Wineland is a counter puncher but does come forward often. Perez will likely be moving forward throwing more volume. Including leg kicks that will work well against Wineland. Wineland could catch Perez with a counter and drop him because Perez does get dropped. But I think it's safe to say the only way Wineland can win here is by KO because of Perez's high output and relentless pressure.

[MMANick]

This is the first card in a long time where I like quite a few dogs to win.

Aguilar, De La Rosa, Barcelos, Price, Scoggins, Wineland, and Ottow.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA undercard write ups -




135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. Alejandro Perez

With his UFC career on the ropes following losses to Johnny Eduardo and Bryan Caraway, Eddie Wineland (23-12-1) smashed Frankie Saenz and Takeya Mizugaki to prove he was still a factor at 135 pounds. He couldn’t quite chase down John Dodson his next time out, however, dropping a decision in Nashville.
This will be his first fight in 15 months.
Alejandro Perez (20-6-1) has not tasted defeat since his second UFC bout, going 5-0-1 with wins over some solid Bantamweight competition. His three-fight win streak includes decisions over Andre Soukhamthath and Iuri Alcantara, plus a knockout of Matthew Lopez in April.
He has knocked out nine professional opponents and submitted another five.
I’ve probably said it before, but I’ll say it again: It’s hard to get a bead on Perez. His wins over Soukhamthath and Alcantara looked to be products of his opponents’ bad gameplans and he was losing to Lopez before the latter fell apart. Though Wineland is past his best, he has the takedown defense to keep it on the feet and the power to crack Perez’s shaky jaw.
“Diablito” has a habit of surprising both me and the bookies, but Wineland just seems all wrong for him. So long as he’s willing to let his hands go, Wineland catches him with a right hand sometime in the second.
Prediction: Wineland via second-round technical knockout

145 lbs.: Darren Elkins vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Darren Elkins (24-5) came out of nowhere to rocket up the Featherweight rankings with six consecutive wins, four of them upsets. After defeating Mirsad Bektic and Dennis Bermudez last year, “The Damage” began his 2018 campaign with a comeback submission of Michael Johnson in St. Louis.
He stands four inches taller than Alexander Volkanovski (17-1) at 5’10,” though their reaches are identical.
Volkanovski has won 14 consecutive fights, 11 by stoppage, since his lone professional loss, including four UFC victories. His latest win was his most brutal yet, a two-round mauling of unbeaten Jeremy Kennedy that featured some of the most devastating ground-and-pound in recent memory.
Ten of his 13 stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
This fight is a stylistic nightmare for Elkins, but so were his last three match ups, all of which he won. In other words, logic goes out the window when Elkins steps into the cage. I mean, I’m still going to make the logical pick, but I’ll feel really stupid if I’m wrong again.
Volkanovski is incredibly strong, adept with his takedowns, and downright frightening from top position. Elkins isn’t adept enough on the feet to steer clear of those booming overhand rights, either, and “The Great” hasn’t shown any cardio issues despite pushing a torrid pace. He tears up the hyper-durable Elkins everywhere the fight goes on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Volkanovski via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Justin Scoggins vs. Said Nurmagomedov

The enormously talented Justin Scoggins (11-4) remains unable to stay out of his own way. After dominating Josh Sampo and Ray Borg, “Tank” tapped to Pedro Munhoz and Yuta Sasaki in fights he was dominating up to that point, dropping his recent record to 2-4.
He owns six professional wins and four amateur wins by knockout.
Said Nurmagomedov (11-1), fighting out of Mark Henry’s camp alongside Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes, made his name on the Russian circuit with strong runs in ACB and Akhmat Fight Show. Though he lost to fellow UFC competitor Magomed Bibulatov in the former, he won the latter’s Bantamweight grand prix in 2016.
This will be his Flyweight debut.
What’s interesting about this fight is that it’s almost a mirror match up. Both men are strong grapplers who utilize offbeat kicks on the feet. Scoggins looks to be the sharper takedown artist and pack more stopping power, but here’s the thing: There is nobody in UFC, maybe nobody in mixed martial arts (MMA), who’s failed to live up to his potential more than “Tank.” He seems to have this mental block demanding that he wrestle no matter how well he’s doing on the feet and has gotten choked out for doing it three times.
Nurmagomedov is a quality prospect, albeit short on finishing ability. That said, Scoggins has all the tools to control this fight wherever it goes. I can’t wait to see how he screws it up this time.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission

145 lbs.: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Raoni Barcelos

Four years removed from his first UFC run and sporting a three-fight win streak, Kurt Holobaugh (17-4) torched Matt Bessette on the first episode of Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” to earn himself a contract. Soon after, however, the commission discovered that Holobaugh had illegally used an IV to rehydrate, overturning the knockout win to a “No Contest” and resulting in a nine-month suspension.
Holobaugh went 8-2 (1 NC) between UFC runs, scoring six non-overturned finishes in that span.
A loss in his second RFA appearance failed to slow Raoni Barcelos (11-1), who secured the promotion’s Featherweight title two fights later. He successfully defended it with wins over upcoming “Tuesday Night Contender Series” hopeful Bobby Moffett and current UFC competitor Dan Moret.
This will be his first fight in nearly two years, as a planned debut against Boston Salmon last year fell through.
I was profoundly bummed when we missed out on Barcelos vs. Salmon, because that would have been an incredible fight. I’m still excited to see him in the Octagon, though. The Brazilian is a dangerous counter-puncher with A+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials and quality wrestling to back it up. If he weren’t already 33 years old, I’d be touting him as a true blue-chip prospect.
He’s still pretty damn good, though, and his striking style seems like a good answer for Holobaugh’s aggression. He’s also the better grappler, so he can fall back on that if Holobaugh starts getting to him. Barring the very real possibility of ring rust, Barcelos potshots his way to victory.
Prediction: Barcelos via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Liz Carmouche vs. Jennifer Maia

Consecutive decisions over Lauren Murphy and Katlyn Chookagian gave way to a 13-month layoff for Liz Carmouche (11-6), leaving her with just one fight between April 2015 and Dec. 2017. Upon her return, “Girl-Rilla” faced old rival Alexis Davis and fought to a contentious split decision loss.
She has stopped five opponents with strikes and submitted another two.
Jennifer Maia (15-4-1) enters UFC on a six-fight win streak and with the Invicta Flyweight belt around her waist. She defeated veteran Vanessa Porto for the belt back in 2016, then defended it against Roxanne Modafferi and Agnieszka Niedzwiedz in headlining appearances.
She has five submissions and two (technical) knockouts of her own.
For those who haven’t seen Maia in action, she’s a straightforward Muay Thai stylist with a quality jab and solid kicks. What she isn’t is terribly adept at defending takedowns, which is more than a bit of a problem against one of the division’s best ground-and-pounders. She found herself on her back more than once against Modafferi, who lacks Carmouche’s overwhelming physical strength, so that bodes ill for her.
Carmouche’s fight IQ has been lacking before and she’s not always the best at finishing takedowns, but she should have the tools to put Maia on her back and start bashing away. Ground control and punches from the top seal the deal.
Prediction: Carmouche via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Mark De La Rosa vs. Elias Garcia

Mark De La Rosa (9-1) looked to put the infamy of his Legacy FC no-show behind him when he stepped into the cage against Tim Elliott at UFC 219. It wasn’t quite the triumphant redemption for which “The Bumblebee” had hoped, though, as Elliott caught him in a bonus-winning anaconda choke early in the second round.
Four of his five submission wins have come by rear-naked choke.
Training at Roufusport alongside cousin Anthony Pettis, Elias Garcia (5-0) went 5-0 as an amateur before joining the professional ranks in 2013. He returned from a two-year layoff in 2017 to score two submissions, one of them in the first round.
He has scored three wins by submission and one by (technical) knockout.
From what little I’ve seen of Garcia, he’s a dangerous ground artist with powerful-but-developing stand up. The issue here is that he’s unproven against quality opposition and has yet to show solid wrestling, while De La Rosa is both capable on the feet and dangerous on the mat. Garcia would have to be able to dictate position to reliably win this bout and I’m not convinced that’s in his toolbox.
The potential is definitely there for Garcia, but without the ability to put De La Rosa on his back, it’s hard to see him getting his hand raised. De La Rosa escapes a few hairy submission attempts to piece him up on the feet.
Prediction: De La Rosa via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Jessica Aguilar vs. Jodie Esquibel

If it’s all the same to you guys, I’m just going to copy-paste what I wrote for this fight last time.
Once arguably the top Strawweight on the planet, Jessica Aguilar (19-6) has struggled to find her footing in UFC, fighting just twice in the last three years and losing both times. The former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) champ was last seen losing a decision to Cortney Casey last year, making this her first fight in more than 12 months.
“Jag” has forced eight opponents to tap as a professional.
Jodie Esquibel (6-3) stepped up when the casting call went out for The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, but Ashley Yoder ended her run in the elimination round. After splitting fights with Alexa Grasso and DeAnna Bennett, she made her Octagon debut in Gdansk in Oct. 2017, dropping a decision to local favorite Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
She stands an inch shorter than Aguilar, but will have one inch of reach on her.
I’m honestly not sure what to make of Aguilar. Losing to Claudia Gadelha is perfectly understandable, but the Casey loss was downright baffling. Despite taking down her opponent four times, she elected to just stand there and let Casey kick her legs with impunity rather than try to establish top control.
Not confidence-inspiring stuff, that.
Luckily for her, Esquibel represents a step down in competition. With a history of making 105 pounds and split decisions comprising half of her victories, there’s very little going Jodie’s way against the infinitely more proven “Jag.” Expect Aguilar to score regular takedowns en route to a wide decision victory.
Prediction: Aguilar via unanimous decision


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 92-47

[Teem]

Despite his long layoff, Mendes should take this fight with Jury. He has the wrestling and power advantages. The chin is questionable. But doesn't Jury often rely on his wrestling? Has Mendes ever even been taken down? Mendes has been in there with the best of the best. I don't see what Jury has for him. Also, recent pictures of Mendes still shows him looking like a tank. If anything, that long layoff might have been good for him. I think the only reason why the line is as close as it is is because of that long layoff. Jury might give him a hard fight here but it's Mendes by tko or decision for me.

[Shagdogy]

This is the first card in a long time where I like quite a few dogs to win.

Aguilar, De La Rosa, Barcelos, Price, Scoggins, Wineland, and Ottow.

Not 226? 7 out of 10 won and all 5 on main card.

[Shagdogy]

^ regression to the mean. Underdogs way overperformed last time out, but for the past 4 years underdog win % has been dropping. Be selective.

[Shagdogy]

Took a break for a little bit and have not capped one fight on this card. I do remember that I had a play on Esquibel from last time this matchup was supposed to happen. I believe Turbo was on that as well so I put some on that fight. Otherwise I’m in the dark so far. Hugo says check out Jury/Mendes and JDS/Ivanov so I’ll get to those first. Likely a small card for me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is the first card in a long time where I like quite a few dogs to win.

Aguilar, De La Rosa, Barcelos, Price, Scoggins, Wineland, and Ottow.

Recency bias?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Despite his long layoff, Mendes should take this fight with Jury. He has the wrestling and power advantages. The chin is questionable. But doesn't Jury often rely on his wrestling? Has Mendes ever even been taken down? Mendes has been in there with the best of the best. I don't see what Jury has for him. Also, recent pictures of Mendes still shows him looking like a tank. If anything, that long layoff might have been good for him. I think the only reason why the line is as close as it is is because of that long layoff. Jury might give him a hard fight here but it's Mendes by tko or decision for me.

Mendes has never been taken down in the UFC. Jury is pretty Well Rounded but Offensive Wrestling/Grappling is definitely a key part of his game.

[Shagdogy]

Mendes has never been taken down in the UFC. Jury is pretty Well Rounded but Offensive Wrestling/Grappling is definitely a key part of his game.

On memory alone, isn’t there a pretty big power discrepancy from Mendes to Jury?

[Thrilla]

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 92-47

Jibbby what is the average odds and return on investment % of MMA Mania picks you post?

What good is 92-47 on -1000 odds? LOL

[Sanity Check]

On memory alone, isn’t there a pretty big power discrepancy from Mendes to Jury?

Jury did well using his height and reach to keep Diego Sanchez at bay.

[Hugo de Naranja]

On memory alone, isn’t there a pretty big power discrepancy from Mendes to Jury?

Absolutely. Mendes is a Knockout Artist with big power. Jury has a better chin though.

[firekillex]

Mendes Jury going to be fireworks

Jury has the technical advantage on the feet and length , Mendes has the wrestling and power

wonder what Mendes well see after this super long layoff , id lean Mendes though ... division looking great for him to make a comeback would LOVE to see him versus Ortega

[JIBBBY]

Absolutely. Mendes is a Knockout Artist with big power. Jury has a better chin though.

He's been getting knocked out lately, not sure about that knock out artist statement of your Hugo..

I'm fading Chad myself.. He needs to prove himself again for me to take him up on those -147 odds. He lost a few fights in a row now and is on a losing streak.. Been out for a while now as well..(inactive).http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chad-Mendes-38393

I'll be taking Jury whom has won his last 2 fights.. Be taking him probably by KO also.. Jury younger and has fought more often then Chad also..

[Hugo de Naranja]

He's been getting knocked out lately, not sure about that knock out artist statement of your Hugo..

I'm fading Chad myself.. He needs to prove himself again for me to take him up on those -147 odds. He lost a few fights in a row now and is on a losing streak.. Been out for a while now as well..(inactive).http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chad-Mendes-38393

I'll be taking Jury whom has won his last 2 fights.. Be taking him probably by KO also.. Jury younger and has fought more often then Chad also..

Mendes has 5 KO/TKO wins in his last 6 his UFC wins including a KO of the toughest man on the planet, Darren Elkins.

[Thor4140]

I wonder if Mendes power is a thing of the past like Johnny Hendricks. these things tend to fade when u get off the juice. Kinda like Juniors. Junior had all the skills to be a superstar with the juice added. I think you have to be absolutely nuts to risk a bet on Mendes or Junior until u see them without the juice. Junior already looks like a shell of himself in my opinion. Mendes we haven’t seen yet. I remember Mendes saying he thought he was the baddest man on the planet and he was pretty close to being right. Let’s now see without that liquid courage he use to pump in his body.

[JIBBBY]

I wonder if Mendes power is a thing of the past like Johnny Hendricks. these things tend to fade when u get off the juice. Kinda like Juniors. Junior had all the skills to be a superstar with the juice added. I think you have to be absolutely nuts to risk a bet on Mendes or Junior until u see them without the juice. Junior already looks like a shell of himself in my opinion. Mendes we haven’t seen yet. I remember Mendes saying he thought he was the baddest man on the planet and he was pretty close to being right. Let’s now see without that liquid courage he use to pump in his body.

Thor has a clue....

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wonder if Mendes power is a thing of the past like Johnny Hendricks. these things tend to fade when u get off the juice. Kinda like Juniors. Junior had all the skills to be a superstar with the juice added. I think you have to be absolutely nuts to risk a bet on Mendes or Junior until u see them without the juice. Junior already looks like a shell of himself in my opinion. Mendes we haven’t seen yet. I remember Mendes saying he thought he was the baddest man on the planet and he was pretty close to being right. Let’s now see without that liquid courage he use to pump in his body.

My approach is to not assume a fighter has lost an aspect of their game until we actually see it. Mendes has a big advantage in the wrestling and I think the power will be there to fall back on as well.

[JIBBBY]

Mendes has 5 KO/TKO wins in his last 6 his UFC wins including a KO of the toughest man on the planet, Darren Elkins.

His last KO win was over 2 years ago.. Lost 3 of his last 4 fights..

[Hugo de Naranja]

His last KO win was over 2 years ago.. Lost 3 of his last 4 fights..

All against champions and former champions. Is Jury on that level? Does Jury have a really solid path to victory outside of a KO?

[JIBBBY]

All against champions and former champions. Is Jury on that level? Does Jury have a really solid path to victory outside of a KO?

Jury is tough and all he needs is that KO pathway.. We'll see Hugo.. We aren't on the same page with this fight.. It happens all good though buddy!!!