[Teem]

Mismatch alert in Bellator

Valerie Letourneau should be a much bigger favorite. Opened at -215. Got up to +105 (!!!) but now back down to -200. Should be more like a -400 favorite or more. Valerie should maul Williams on the mat and can probably outwork her standing too. Williams can win if she lands a high kick, but it'll have to be timed perfectly because she telegraphs them and they are thrown rather slow. Williams also coming in on short notice. Unless she has made crazy improvements within the past 3 months, she wins less than 1 out of 5 times these two fight.

Yes, Thank you. Does anyone on SBR do Bellator predictions or have an analysis forum for each event?

[Teem]

Taking another look at Costa. I now agree with "SmellMyFinger" that Costa hasn't earned those odds. Kind of strange. Staying away from that one. Or yeah, a bet on Hall.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mismatch alert in Bellator

Valerie Letourneau should be a much bigger favorite. Opened at -215. Got up to +105 (!!!) but now back down to -200. Should be more like a -400 favorite or more. Valerie should maul Williams on the mat and can probably outwork her standing too. Williams can win if she lands a high kick, but it'll have to be timed perfectly because she telegraphs them and they are thrown rather slow. Williams also coming in on short notice. Unless she has made crazy improvements within the past 3 months, she wins less than 1 out of 5 times these two fight.

How many units you got on this one mate?

[turbozed]

How many units you got on this one mate?

Had a unit on it and now that Valerie is cheap again added on more. Completely puzzled in the line movement but I guess If I liked her at -190, I should like her even more at -120.

[UncleChael]

He's got 12 pounds of gold and I want it - Daniel Cormier

[boss_of_um]

Had a unit on it and now that Valerie is cheap again added on more. Completely puzzled in the line movement but I guess If I liked her at -190, I should like her even more at -120.

Thanks for the tip! I threw it into several parlays with open legs.

[turbozed]

Valerie at -115 was a gift. Williams was dead off her back. Just wish Valerie took her down in Rd2 for a 30-27 and not making me sweat.

Hope got their bets in!

[strictlypaypal]

Thanks turbozed! Stupid world cup bets had me on the wire. Laid $1050 to win $500 on valerie at -205 lol

[Broxbomber]

Valerie at -115 was a gift. Williams was dead off her back. Just wish Valerie took her down in Rd2 for a 30-27 and not making me sweat.

Hope got their bets in!

Thanks Turbo! You are a ladies man.

[turbozed]

Yes, Thank you. Does anyone on SBR do Bellator predictions or have an analysis forum for each event?

Sometimes a Bellator thread will be posted if it's a big enough one. I expect a thread for the Mousasi vs. Rory event for example. Hope you got more in on Valerie when the price dropped.

[turbozed]

Thanks Turbo! You are a ladies man.

Glad to help bro! Never wanted to be an WMMA specialist because the tape watching is not as fun, but gotta stick to what I'm good at. Hope you got some good action in when the price dropped.

[Rich Benjamins]

I also just watched the SaKi/Frankenstein again. IMHO, Saki was saved by the ref. The ref stopped the fight for one reason - Frankenstein got hit with a punch and fell down. That alone is not grounds for a stoppage. Saki was completely gassed, look at him speak about 2 minutes after the fight yelling "this is my house!" he still can barely catch his breath. If this is the same Saki vs Rountree, he's a dead man. Now, if he has improved his MMA and his cardio, then it's possible he should be the favorite, but is there any evidence of this?

[Teem]

I also just watched the SaKi/Frankenstein again. IMHO, Saki was saved by the ref. The ref stopped the fight for one reason - Frankenstein got hit with a punch and fell down. That alone is not grounds for a stoppage. Saki was completely gassed, look at him speak about 2 minutes after the fight yelling "this is my house!" he still can barely catch his breath. If this is the same Saki vs Rountree, he's a dead man. Now, if he has improved his MMA and his cardio, then it's possible he should be the favorite, but is there any evidence of this?

That Saki had a two year layoff. He's been training with Gus and Latifi. Rountree has been training in his backyard. He has no coaches going into this. His brother will be in his corner. His game plan is to stand with Saki and go for the KO against a vastly better striker than himself. Sure, he could KO Saki in a wild exchange. But he will gas first and when he does, his hands will drop. He's prone to leg kicks and overhand lefts... Saki via KO by head kick or the left hook drops him.

[Shagdogy]

That Saki had a two year layoff. He's been training with Gus and Latifi. Rountree has been training in his backyard. He has no coaches going into this. His brother will be in his corner. His game plan is to stand with Saki and go for the KO against a vastly better striker than himself. Sure, he could KO Saki in a wild exchange. But he will gas first and when he does, his hands will drop. He's prone to leg kicks and overhand lefts... Saki via KO by head kick or the left hook drops him.

Been looking into this one based on Hugo's read... I think this summary is most likely outcome. Saki may get tired, but he can always strike, even when tired. Meanwhile, when Rountree gets tired his hands get low, slow, and lack about 2/3 of the power that he starts with. Big problem. Combine that with the complete lack of camp and training consistency that he has been experiencing, not even knowing who was going to be in his corner until fight week basically... It seems impossible to think his cardio will be improved at all, and can only imagine one of two gameplans from him: 1) Come out chasing the quickest possible KO, which would get him lit up in return by the superior technical striker. OR 2) Go completely the other way and do nothing but chase takedowns from the opening bell assuming he will have an advantage. The thing about that is, we don't KNOW he would hold an advantage here, and it's quite possible that would gas him even worse.

The play has got to be Saki here. Rountree just doesn't seem like he is in a good place. He left Vegas after his loss to Olie and in interviews he makes it seem like it was just personal problems left and right that he was running from, or maybe girl issues. Either way he's been a loner since and does not seem to be in a good mindset. Check this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IHvu8uy810

He has to take a deep breath and looks anxious just answering simple questions. Can't back this guy in this situation.

[SmellMyFinger]

Been looking into this one based on Hugo's read... I think this summary is most likely outcome. Saki may get tired, but he can always strike, even when tired. Meanwhile, when Rountree gets tired his hands get low, slow, and lack about 2/3 of the power that he starts with. Big problem. Combine that with the complete lack of camp and training consistency that he has been experiencing, not even knowing who was going to be in his corner until fight week basically... It seems impossible to think his cardio will be improved at all, and can only imagine one of two gameplans from him: 1) Come out chasing the quickest possible KO, which would get him lit up in return by the superior technical striker. OR 2) Go completely the other way and do nothing but chase takedowns from the opening bell assuming he will have an advantage. The thing about that is, we don't KNOW he would hold an advantage here, and it's quite possible that would gas him even worse.

The play has got to be Saki here. Rountree just doesn't seem like he is in a good place. He left Vegas after his loss to Olie and in interviews he makes it seem like it was just personal problems left and right that he was running from, or maybe girl issues. Either way he's been a loner since and does not seem to be in a good mindset. Check this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IHvu8uy810

He has to take a deep breath and looks anxious just answering simple questions. Can't back this guy in this situation.

profitable way to go is saki i think, most likely outcome is for roundtree to accept the striking match at first, the only bad outcome is for roundtree to change lvls vs saki and take him down, and that can happen of saki overcomits, but a seasoned striker like saki dose not overcomit unless he knows he can finish. saki straight and have your finger on the hedge trigger after round 1, should be quite visible, if they both look gassed after the first ill still take saki to win a dec based on the round 1 dmg, but the most likely scenario will be for roundtree to try and play to his strenght and try and outstrike saki , and that will likely be game over in the first if he hangs out there too much

gl to all , im taking saki here

[SmellMyFinger]

+150 on tavares, thank you !

arguments for the bet are fairly obvious , would offer constructive point but am a bit drunk and had 2 joints

i secretly want adesanya to do good and become a dark horse in the division, si i dont feel bias picking tavares here , tihnk its slightly better than a coinflip in tavares's favor so at those odds i have to go with him

[Hugo de Naranja]

+150 on tavares, thank you !

arguments for the bet are fairly obvious , would offer constructive point but am a bit drunk and had 2 joints

i secretly want adesanya to do good and become a dark horse in the division, si i dont feel bias picking tavares here , tihnk its slightly better than a coinflip in tavares's favor so at those odds i have to go with him

When you sober up, I'd like to hear your argument on this one. I'm still undecided on this fight.

[Shagdogy]

When you sober up, I'd like to hear your argument on this one. I'm still undecided on this fight.

I’ll make the Tavares argument: he’s been around at a high level for much too long to fight Adesanya in a strictly kickboxing match. As hard as he is to take down and keep down, Vettori did manage to do it in the 3rd, and he can be pressured into the cage and hit in the clinch and in the pocket. No chance Tavares straight up kickboxes. He’s goin to try to win a dirty fight, and he’s solid enough all around that he could steal rounds with octagon control and dictating in the clinch. Maybe a TD here or there. He also has the cardio to fight that game plan for 3 rounds. He’s too savvy and well rounded to be an underdog against Adesanya who is clearly taking a step up in competition.

[Thor4140]

Paul F an Perry could possibly steal the night. This should be a barn burner. I like this fight way better than Yancy vs Platinum

[SmellMyFinger]

thank you Shagdogy, i literally could have not said it better ) was wasted

things that make the + money on tavares a good bet : experience at a higher lvl , not having only 1 avenue to win the fight, and having the cardio and chin that would make the best case cenario for adesenya (to ko tavares) less likely, for now adesenya needs to prove he won't be another joe schilling in mma, the fact that he dose not have that "OMFG ! what just hit me ?!" type of power to accompany his very technical kickboxing, makes it even easier to go with tavares here, plus he's only 30 and can still improve so the "possibility of improvement" intangible is not only on adesenya's side

[Sirius]

Always great contributions by SHAGDOGY

I'm thinking of straight up following you and Hugo if I can get funds in my account after this weekend (pending at $0 and not depositing)

Good luck to you maine

[Sirius]

Paul F an Perry could possibly steal the night. This should be a barn burner. I like this fight way better than Yancy vs Platinum

Perry is in trouble now...looking at 3 Ls in a row

Really don't care to hear from Iaquinta and/or see him fight again...funny to see him calling Gaethje "brain dead"

Gaethje would have got his UFC win and bloodied Al bad, IMO

Iaquinta lost his golden free shot being a champion in a weak performance. He should have hammered Khabib when he was messing around on the feet but lost to jabs...get out

[Teem]

What do you guys think of Burns/Hooker? I'm a big fan of the TMT fighters. Hooker seems to have a good instinct with that guillotine. I don't see him sinking it in on Burns though. Burns likes to brawl these days. Maybe Hooker can keep the action interesting enough on the feet to drag Burns into a striking battle for 3 rounds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

thank you Shagdogy, i literally could have not said it better ) was wasted

things that make the + money on tavares a good bet : experience at a higher lvl , not having only 1 avenue to win the fight, and having the cardio and chin that would make the best case cenario for adesenya (to ko tavares) less likely, for now adesenya needs to prove he won't be another joe schilling in mma, the fact that he dose not have that "OMFG ! what just hit me ?!" type of power to accompany his very technical kickboxing, makes it even easier to go with tavares here, plus he's only 30 and can still improve so the "possibility of improvement" intangible is not only on adesenya's side

Is Tavares known for his chin? The last couple guys he fought (Jotko, Leites, Theodorou) had no power and he's been Knocked Out in both of his most recent losses (Whittaker, Boetsch).

[Shagdogy]

Is Tavares known for his chin? The last couple guys he fought (Jotko, Leites, Theodorou) had no power and he's been Knocked Out in both of his most recent losses (Whittaker, Boetsch).

I'd say it's an unknown. It would probably be unfair to say that KO losses to Whittaker and Boetsch means that he has a bad chin. That being said, you can't give him too much credit for not getting KO'd, rocked, dropped against his most recent run of victories.

That said, I do think that Adesanya is more of an accumulation and overwhelming type KO guy. He generally doesn't have that one strike KO power, unless he lands a kick flush to the head. Tavares has been pretty sure on defense lately. I think he's an underrated grinder and that's what is swinging me his way.

[Shagdogy]

A little late, but just remembered I won a max bet on Teymur vs. Lentz so I gotta change the avatar. Max bet win = avatar pic.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Can someone please start a thread for the TUF Finale?

[PaperTrail07]

So many good fights this weekend

[Thor4140]

Can someone please start a thread for the TUF Finale?

i never want to step on Locksmith toes cause he is the guy that starts them but i asked him one time if he could start a certain thread and the guy got all salty. lmao.

[Thrilla]

When you sober up, I'd like to hear your argument on this one. I'm still undecided on this fight.

The first response by the MMA community after the bout was announced was "Is it too soon too fast for Adesanya?"

How is Adesanya the favorite than? No brainer Alert!!!!!! Take Tavares at + money.

[Thrilla]

i never want to step on Locksmith toes cause he is the guy that starts them but i asked him one time if he could start a certain thread and the guy got all salty. lmao.

He takes pride in his work.

That's his job and he is late with the TUF card. Have to slap him around now.

Maybe he doesn't like you? You are a outspoken anti Trump poster in other threads. Locksmith being a Trump tard.

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania prelims... Part 1...



FOX SPORTS 1 ‘Prelims’ (8 p.m. ET start time)

185 lbs.: Paulo Costa vs. Uriah Hall

Paulo Costa (11-0) — the martial artist formerly known as “Borrachinha” — bounced back from an unsuccessful TUF: “Brazil” 2 run to win and defend the Jungle Fight Middleweight title. He has been every bit as successful in UFC, smashing Garreth McLellan, Oluwale Bamgbose and Johny Hendricks in his 2017 campaign.
He has never gone past 1:23 into the second round as a professional, knocking out 10 opponents and submitting one other.
Uriah Hall’s (13-8) ridiculous upset of Gegard Mousasi gave way to three consecutive losses, including first-round (technical) knockouts against Brunson and the aforementioned Mousasi in the rematch. Down on the cards and with his back against the wall, “Primetime” knocked out Krzysztof Jotko to win “Performance of the Night” and keep his Octagon career afloat.
These two were originally slated to fight in April before Costa suffered a biceps injury.
We all know how it goes at this point. Hall has the potential to knockout anyone in the division at any time, but it is beyond foolhardy to put any faith in his ability to execute against competent Middleweight competition. This is a guy who lost to Josh Howard and then went on to knockout Mousasi, a feat multiple world champions and quality Heavyweight kickboxers have failed to accomplish.
Costa is young, huge, incredibly powerful and seemed to have solid cardio in his two trips to the second round. The obvious outcome sees him pressure Hall against the cage and blast him with hooks for the finish as Chris Weidman and the aforementioned Brunson did. Barring another Hall miracle, that’s my call.
Prediction: Costa via first-round technical knockout

170 lbs.: Paul Felder vs. Mike Perry

Paul Felder (15-3) is 5-1 since consecutive losses to Edson Barboza and Ross Peason, securing three consecutive (technical) knockout victories. He was originally slated to fight James Vick in Boise, Idaho, but answered the call when Vick got called up to face Justin Gaethje and Yancy Medeiros busted a rib.
“The Irish Dragon” has knocked out 10 opponents and submitted one other.
Mike Perry’s (11-3) thunderous knockouts of Jake Ellenberger and Alex Reyes put him within spitting distance of title contention, only for Santiago Ponzinibbio to out-slug him in a grueling affair. He returned two months later against Max Griffin in what looked to be a rebound fight, but “Max Pain” defied considerable odds to pick Perry apart and secure a decision.
Seven of his 11 knockout wins have come in the first round.
Perry has all the tools to be a truly standout Welterweight, boasting hellacious power, hand speed and physicality, but his technique isn’t advancing the way it should. While losses to Alan Jouban and Santiago Ponzinibbio are understandable, Griffin is someone he should have destroyed. Felder is durable enough, adaptable enough, and versatile enough on the feet to recreate Griffin’s winning effort.
There is the concern of Felder being unable to stand up to the power of a genuine Welterweight, but he has absorbed blows from quality finishers like Edson Barboza and Daron Cruickshank without flinching. I have faith in his ability to steer clear of Perry’s bombs and pick him apart for a decision win.
Prediction: Felder via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Raphael Assuncao vs. Rob Font

It hasn’t always been the prettiest of affairs, but Raphael Assuncao (26-5) is 10-1 since his knockout loss to Erik Koch, beating the likes of T.J. Dillashaw, Bryan Caraway, Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes, among others. His latest win was the most eye-catching yet, a brutal one-punch knockout of Matthew Lopez that earned the Brazilian his first post-fight bonus since 2013.
He is three inches shorter than Rob Font (15-3) and will give up five inches of reach.
Font scored brutal finishes in four of his first five UFC appearances and looked poised for another win in Oct. 2017, but succumbed to Pedro Munhoz’s infamous guillotine late in the first round. Against another dangerous foe in Thomas Almeida, Font survived a competitive first round to drop and stop “Thominhas” in Boston.
Font has knocked out seven opponents and submitted another four.
Well, if there’s anyone outside of Cody Garbrandt and John Lineker who could drag a great fight out of Assuncao, it’s Font. Dangerously powerful and aggressive, he’s everything you’d want in a young fighter. For all that destructive potential, though, I’m not convinced he’s sharp enough to take the Brazilian out of his comfort zone. Assuncao’s counterpunching is some of the best in the division — only Dillashaw and the incredibly adaptive Moraes have been able to consistently land on him without taking more in return. Based on what I’ve seen, he can slow this fight to his pace and consistently punish Font’s aggression.
I’m pulling for Font, as he’s exponentially more entertaining, but I say Assuncao picks him off enough to take a controversial decision.
Prediction: Assuncao by unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Max Griffin vs. Curtis Millender (15-3)

Max Griffin (14-4) — after splitting bouts with Colby Covington and Erick Montano — threw down with Elizeu Zaleski at UFC Fight Night 119, coming up short on the cards but securing a $50,000 bonus for his troubles. Four months later, “Max Pain” took a wholly unexpected decision over Mike Perry, whom he outclassed on the feet.
Half of his pro wins have come by form of knockout.
The early 1-3 skid for Curtis Millender’s (15-3) didn’t stop him from winning six straight afterward, including solid victories in LFA. His Octagon debut pitted him against Thiago Alves, whom he caught with a vicious knee in the final minute of the second round.
“Curtious” stands four inches taller than Griffin at 6’3.”
Griffin impressed pretty much everyone against Perry, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him shut down “Curtious,” but this looks like a rough match up for him. In addition to the height disadvantage, Griffin is fairly easy to hit and got knocked down more than once against Zaleski. It’s also worth noting that his arsenal doesn’t prominently feature takedowns or low kicks, which are Millender’s key weaknesses.
Without the tools to get inside on Millender or make him hesitate on those long kicks, Griffin is going to struggle to bring his heavy hands to bear. Millender finds the mark with a head kick partway through the second round.
Prediction: Millender via second-round knockout

[Thor4140]

He takes pride in his work.

That's his job and he is late with the TUF card. Have to slap him around now.

Maybe he doesn't like you? You are a outspoken anti Trump poster in other threads. Locksmith being a Trump tard.

Nah this was about three or four years ago i was the originator setting them up but mine were not as good as his when he did it so i politely stepped aside. When he got salty i thought what a weird fuker this guy is. Strange fuk but he does beautiful work lol.

[Teem]

I'm pulling for Millender ^. Also, I would love to see Font win. I think he will be landing a lot with that 5 inch reach advantage. Although, Assuncao could negate Font's high output with some nice leg kicks and a few takedowns... Doesn't Assuncao eek out decisions anyway? Font could take a split decision here.

[strictlypaypal]

Who thinks ortega and cormier both pulling this sh*t off?!