[Richard Clock]

Someone tell me I am crazy so I don't waste less than a unit on this, but....

1231 O'Malley wins by submission

+1422

Souk will be damn tough to finish with strikes, but has shown some vulnerability as a grappler and O'Malley's grappling may be underrated: long limbs with good trip takedowns and aggressive with submissions. O'Malley even mentioned that he thinks his wrestling is underrated during his last post-fight interview.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Worth noting that both of Zingano's UFC wins were comeback R3 TKOs

[Richard Clock]

https://www.flocombat.com/articles/6...b-follis-death

A little bit of misery porn for those who dislike Caraway. Dude suffered a ton of injuries and illnesses (torn labrum, torn bicep tendon, torn LCL, flu, stomach virus) leading up to his Rivera and Sanders fights. Also had to deal with a breakup of his large-breasted girlfriend and the death of Robert Folis. You can't help but to think that the accumulation of injuries in particular has taken a toll on him physically, which is concerning for a guy who has always been very limited physically. The lines would really have to shift for me to consider any bet at this point.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA predictions part 1



115 lbs.: Ashley Yoder vs. Mackenzie Dern
Ashley Yoder (5-3) went 1-1 on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23, but earned a call to enter the Octagon after a submission win in Invicta. She has yet to taste UFC victory, though, losing decisions to Justine Kish and Angela Hill.

“The Spider Monkey” owns four professional wins by armbar, three in the first round and two in a combined 1:17.
A multiple-time world champion in both gi- and no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Mackenzie Dern (5-0) made the transition to mixed martial arts (MMA) in 2016 under the Legacy banner, eventually moving to Invicta for her last two fights. Though perhaps better known for her issues making weight, she’s nonetheless picked up three submissions in her five victories, including an Imanari choke of current UFC competitor Montana De La Rosa.
She will give up four inches of height to the 5’7” Yoder.
Related
Mackenzie Dern says Ronda Rousey was ‘never an inspiration,’ aims to be bigger


I am genuinely more interested in the fight between Dern and the scale than between Dern and Yoder. Yoder is almost exclusively a grappler and is going up against a woman who’s beaten Gabi Garcia, won ADCC, and earned more world-level medals than Yoder has MMA fights. The question is whether Dern can keep her weight in check and get the finish.
Barring a complete meltdown the likes of which would have Sara McMann wincing, Dern should utterly dominate this fight, wrapping up a submission if and when she wants it.
Related
Midnight Mania! Watch Mackenzie Dern drop, choke out Mandy Polk at LFA 24
Prediction: Dern via first-round submission

155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush vs. Alexander Hernandez
A knockout loss to Ramsey Nijem in his second UFC fight didn’t stop Beneil Dariush (14-3-1)from winning seven of his next eight bouts, including consecutive victories over prospects James Vick and Radhid Magomedov. “Benny” enters the cage winless in his last two, however, having suffered a shocking knockout loss to Edson Barboza and settled for a draw with Evan Dunham after gassing out late.

Six of his nine stoppage victories have come by submission.
San Antonio’s Alexander Hernandez (8-1) has not tasted defeat since a split decision in his third professional fight. His current streak includes three consecutive finishes, including one in RFA and another in LFA.
He steps in for the injured Bobby Green on a week’s notice.
I cannot for the life of me find full footage of any recent Hernandez fights, not even on the seedier websites that give my adblock a hernia. All I’ve really got are short highlights from his last two fights, which show a quick, athletic, well-rounded fighter who’s comfortable from either stance and can finish fights on the feet and the mat.
They do not, however, show anything that could really trouble Dariush, especially not on short notice. Dariush’s ground game is top-tier for the division, he has underrated power in his kicks and punches, and his gas tank is generally solid when he doesn’t punch himself out like against Dunham. He holds his own in all areas of the game, ultimately wearing down Hernandez with low kicks en route to a late finish.
Prediction: Dariush via third-round submission

135 lbs.: John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz
This was supposed to happen on the main card of UFC Fight Night 125 before Pedro Munhoz (15-2) missed weight. Luckily, I was on main card duty that week, so I can copy-paste my pick with zero ethical conflicts.

Related
John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz pulled from UFC Belem following weight-cutting fiasco


I can’t look at John Dodson (19-9) and not see lost potential, even with his clear love for and dedication to the sport. His game has just never evolved from hurling left hands in new and exciting ways. He utterly lacks any kind of offense from his lead hand and his output fluctuates strangely, leading to unnecessarily close and dull fights.
See: Wineland, Eddie.
Luckily, though, I don’t see him challenging for the title with the Big Three (Dominick Cruz, T.J. Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt) and Marlon Moraes in the way, he’s still well-equipped to beat the majority of the division, including “The Young Punisher.”
Munhoz has an absolute bear trap of a guillotine and is tougher than a $2 steak in hockey pads, but his wrestling has not developed as it should, forcing him to use pressure striking to provoke opponents into ill-advised takedown attempts. While he has enough power and aggression to make this work more often than not, he can look worryingly mortal when the choke isn’t there.
Unless he can become the first person to dent Dodson’s chin, it won’t be there. Take Munhoz’s ground game out of the equation and you have a solid-but-not-spectacular bruiser, the sort who Dodson loves leading on merry, painful chases around the Octagon. Dodson’s freakish athleticism, speed and reflexes keep him on his feet as he potshots the advancing Munhoz for three full rounds.
Prediction: Dodson via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Hector Lombard
From the end of 2014 through the first half of 2017, the MMA career of C.B. Dollaway (34-8-1) seemed like one disaster after another, as he went winless (0-3) with two knockout losses and suffered serious injury from an elevator mishap before UFC 203. He managed to return to action last July, picking up a decision over fellow veteran Ed Herman.

He will have five inches of height and reach on Hector Lombard (16-8).
Related
The elevator that almost killed CB Dollaway left ‘Doberman’ permanently damaged ahead of UFC 222


It feels like eons ago that Lombard was on a 25-fight unbeaten run and considered a genuine contender for the best Middleweight on the planet. He enters the cage this Saturday on a four-fight losing streak that includes stoppage losses to Neil Magny, Dan Henderson and Anthony Smith.
He owns 19 finishes via (technical) knockout and another seven by submission.
This is not an easy decision to make. Dollaway’s overeager striking offense looks like the perfect way to get demolished by a Lombard counter, but Lombard is on one hell of a crappy run. 185-pound division has thoroughly passed both men by — each is more likely to get sent to Queer Street a couple more times than to re-enter title contention.
Dollaway will be making that trip first. Lombard may have lost those fights, but he still hurt Magny and Henderson badly. The reach difference won’t mean much when it’s Dollaway looking to slug inside; therefore, expect Lombard to crunch him in the first few exchanges.
Prediction: Lombard via first-round knockout


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 39-10

Part 2 -



170 lbs.: Mike Pyle vs. Zak Ottow

Once within spitting distance of title contention thanks to a 7-1 run that featured an upset of then-unbeaten John Hathaway, Mike Pyle (27-13-1) is just 1-4 in his last five fights dating back to 2014. A bonus-winning knockout of Sean Spencer gave way to brutal losses to Alberto Mina and Alex Garcia, both of whom knocked the 42-year-old completely unconscious.
“Quicksand” has gone to the judges just six times in 41 fights.
Zak Ottow (15-5) — who opened his UFC career with an upset of Josh Burkman — has alternated wins and losses in the Octagon, going to three consecutive split decisions. There was no controversy around his latest loss, however, suffering a technical knockout loss to power-puncher Li Jingliang in Shanghai.
“The Barbarian” has tapped nine opponents with chokes.
The Pyle formula used to be fairly simple: He starts slow, gets dropped partway through the first round, then gets up and destroys his man in the clinch. The problem is that he’s now having trouble with the whole “gets up” part. He’s still lethal at close range and devastating on the mat, but that’s not exactly useful when he’s unconscious on the ground.
Luckily for him, Ottow isn’t much of a hitter and can be fairly inactive on the feet, giving “Quicksand” time to get the gears turning and put the hurt on him. While I’m in favor of Pyle retiring before he suffers his fifth knockout loss since May 2013, Ottow is the kind of opponent he can have a vintage performance against. Pyle survives an early knockdown to put away Ottow with a knee.
Prediction: Pyle via second-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Bryan Caraway vs. Cody Stamann

Despite an ignominious knockout loss to Diego Brandao on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 14, Bryan Caraway (21-7) emerged as a contender with wins in six of his first eight UFC appearances. Since losing a decision to Raphael Assuncao, he has run circles around Eddie Wineland and survived an early back take to win a split decision over the heavily-favored Aljamain Sterling.
This will be his first fight in nearly two years because of multiple injuries.
Seven consecutive victories brought Coday Stamann (16-1) to UFC, where he took an entertaining decision over striking specialist Terrion Ware in his debut. He impressed enough in victory to earn a crack at top prospect Tom Duquesnoy, whom he upset via decision at UFC 216.
He will give up two inches of height and four inches of reach to “Kid Lightning.”
Caraway’s actually a moderate underdog at the time of this writing, which honestly surprises me. Even with the layoff, the style match up looks to be in his favor — he can keep up with Stamann in the grappling, is a better finisher on the mat, and showed some very nice range striking against Wineland, which should work wonders here considering the length advantage. I’ll admit that I’ve underestimated Stamann in the past, but I really do think this goes Caraway’s Cara-way.
Caraway’s history of maintaining an impressive pace suggests he should be in shape enough to go hard even if he’s been out of action. I say he wrangles Stamann to the mat in the first few rounds, ultimately finishing with his favorite rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Caraway via second-round submission

205 lbs.: Jordan Johnson vs. Adam Milstead

“Big Swingin’” Jordan Johnson (8-0) had to go to the scorecards for the first time to do it, but defeated Lemarcus Tucker for the RFA title in his final pre-UFC victory. A mauling of Luis Henrique announced his arrival to the Octagon, after which he out-dueled Marcel Fortuna in July.
He stands one inch shorter than Adam Milstead (8-1), but will have three inches of reach on him.
After a loss in his professional debut, “The Prototype” rattled off eight finishes in his next eight fights, including a beating of Chris De La Rocha in first UFC appearance. His next fight saw him on the wrong end of a mauling from Curtis Blaydes, and the subsequent declaration of a “No Contest” following Blaydes testing positive for marijuana wasn’t enough to make up for the knee injury Milstead suffered.
This will be his Light Heavyweight debut.
Milstead is loads of fun to watch, aggressive as hell and packing some real power. He just hasn’t quite reached the point where he can maximize his athleticism, and unfortunately, Johnson’s a bit of a beast himself. That’s not even mentioning Johnson’s extensive wrestling background — undersized or no, Milstead’s manhandling from Blaydes does not instill a lot of confidence in his ability to keep it on the feet.
Milstead’s coming off a one-sided beating and a nasty injury, going up against a confident, undefeated fighter with the style to give him fits. Johnson mauls him with ground-and-pound for all three rounds, though the finish is there if he wants it.
Prediction: Johnson via unanimous decision

[Richard Clock]

As a follow up to my above post, I generally left more impressed by Caraway's tape than Stamann's. Stamann has somewhat relied on his double-leg takedowns in his UFC fights to win rounds and dictate the pace of his fights. The latter is important because I don't think Stamann's cardio and durability has been tested and Stamann may not be able to keep up with Caraway's relentless and grinding pace, as Jibby pointed out above. I do think Stamann has the more effective and more diverse striking game, but Caraway is tough and crafty and may be able to keep the striking close. I also keep going back to the accumulation of injuries for Caraway, who has always been limited athletically. I may need to sleep on this one.

[TPowell]

Passing on Caraway. Take a hard look at the BW's his age on the roster. None of them outside of Assuncao are anywhere near the top 10-15. In this weight class, speed reigns supreme and guys can fall off the cliff fast. We haven't saw Caraway in nearly 2 years. That should be the span of 3-4+ fights for most guys. I'm pretty sure we would have saw signs of a decline if he had fought those fights. I can't prove it, but I have a strong feeling. Time flies at BW and I believe Caraway could come back very different than what we remember. Given his fighting style and ability to grind, I can't fade him with Stamman.

[TPowell]

I've eliminated myself from any plays on the following fights:

Caraway/Stamman (value on Caraway but he's probably washed by now at his age at BW)
Lombard/Dolloway (bet on the guy that has 4 minutes of cardio or the guy that got slept by Nate a couple years ago.... PASS)
Dern/Yoder (excellent matchup for Dern but can't trust her at that price to not choke or fail to get the fight to the ground)
Cyborg/Yana (no sense in even looking into this one IMO)
Zingano/Vieira (thinking about taking this one out as Zingano is always taking a year off in between fights)

[TPowell]

Vieira looks like a frontrunner to me. She takes the center of the cage against less dangerous opponents and uses it to back opponents down and unload with wild punches and maybe a judo throw/trip. We saw in the McMann fight that it didn't work, but I don't know enough about Cat to know whether or not she can deal with this kind of Lineker style brawling on the feet. She didn't use it against McMann for obvious reasons and McMann walked right through her dominating the ground until she hit her back off a Judo throw from Vieira. Once she was there, I literally saw McMann's eyes get huge and it wasn't long until she was subbed easily in a not so good position for the choke. I think if I see the durability and heart that I've heard about on tape from Cat, I'll be hard pressed not to make a dog play

[TPowell]

Watched last 3 fights of Cat and Ketlen and a 8 min interview with Cat from yesterday. She says she's trained this whole time and moved to San Diego full time with her kid to train at Alliance which is a good sign. She is so damn aggressive but she she still manages to keep her cardio in check up until that last fight with Pena. I don't THINK her cardio is what caused Pena to win that fight. I think she just got out-muscled in a couple spots and Pena was better with her BJJ. Regardless, I don't think Vieira is at that level. She is very wild on the feet and can be hit pretty easily most of the time. On the ground, she's talented but this is the same chick that couldn't sub Ashlee Evans Smith with a ton of opportunity on the mat. I trust Cat's gas tank more and I think she should be physically stronger. I do worry about her ground game not being as tight as Vieira's technically to a degree, but I think she'll be fine. At +160, it may be time to put a bet down

[Shagdogy]

Watched last 3 fights of Cat and Ketlen and a 8 min interview with Cat from yesterday. She says she's trained this whole time and moved to San Diego full time with her kid to train at Alliance which is a good sign. She is so damn aggressive but she she still manages to keep her cardio in check up until that last fight with Pena. I don't THINK her cardio is what caused Pena to win that fight. I think she just got out-muscled in a couple spots and Pena was better with her BJJ. Regardless, I don't think Vieira is at that level. She is very wild on the feet and can be hit pretty easily most of the time. On the ground, she's talented but this is the same chick that couldn't sub Ashlee Evans Smith with a ton of opportunity on the mat. I trust Cat's gas tank more and I think she should be physically stronger. I do worry about her ground game not being as tight as Vieira's technically to a degree, but I think she'll be fine. At +160, it may be time to put a bet down

Yeah I've had quite the journey on this fight... 2u on Vieira at first thinking I had to beat the line, then got to more tape and didn't like what I saw. Now I'm with you. If Cat is in shape and ready to fight as well as we've seen her in the past, I think she wins this fight. She may have just a bit too much motor, offensive wrestling, and grit. However, if her heart's not in it, then this could be a bad matchup as Vieira won't go away easily.

Another question - how does Cat's generation of girls compare to the crop Vieira has beaten? WMMA is constantly growing. A dec win over Fazholz or Evans-Smith doesn't look all that impressive for Vieira, but has the division grown to the point that these current girls are all equal or tougher tests to the top crop that Cat faced? It's hard to compare.

I've bet completely off of Vieira now. I have no risk in this fight. If I felt I could trust Cat, I would maybe play her small. Full time training at Alliance is a good sign. Although stalking her instagram/twitter you see a lot more promotion for her workout book than you do of her actually training for a fight. Hmmmm. I donno.

[Shagdogy]

Watched a few more vids on Cat... training and lifestyle vids. It's very hard not to root for her. I think it would be a great story for her become champ.

So many different opinions on this fight. Resident WMMA expert, Turbo... where you at on this one?? Now at +165 and climbing. How much further can the Cat line go?

[Richard Clock]

Watched last 3 fights of Cat and Ketlen and a 8 min interview with Cat from yesterday. She says she's trained this whole time and moved to San Diego full time with her kid to train at Alliance which is a good sign. She is so damn aggressive but she she still manages to keep her cardio in check up until that last fight with Pena. I don't THINK her cardio is what caused Pena to win that fight. I think she just got out-muscled in a couple spots and Pena was better with her BJJ. Regardless, I don't think Vieira is at that level. She is very wild on the feet and can be hit pretty easily most of the time. On the ground, she's talented but this is the same chick that couldn't sub Ashlee Evans Smith with a ton of opportunity on the mat. I trust Cat's gas tank more and I think she should be physically stronger. I do worry about her ground game not being as tight as Vieira's technically to a degree, but I think she'll be fine. At +160, it may be time to put a bet down

I don't think Cat's cardio is an issue at all. She simply got out-grappled by an excellent grappler in Pena. The one issue with Cat seems to be her inactivity when she finds herself on her back, which I think Viera can exploit. I wouldn't place too much value in the fact that Viera couldn't submit Smith. It was Viera's 2nd career UFC fight against a game opponent, and even the best grappler in the world aren't able to pull off submissions consistently, especially when you are facing higher level competition consistently (see Maia). Viera has the skillset and blueprint to beat Cat: take down and batter Cat from top position; a submission may not be needed. I tend to think the standup portion of this fight will be volatile and we may see one woman catch the other with something early. Both are aggressive with their hands, and not all that technical.

[Richard Clock]

+165 seems like nice value for Cat, I have her winning 42.5-45%, but can't seem to pull the trigger on her. I am more so surprised by those people willing to lay almost 2 to 1 on Viera as a relative unknown. I think there may be some public noise associated with Cat that she is mentally unstable and due to her recent trauma/inactivity/loss to Pena that may be driving this movement.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I have not done Draftkings in awhile but submitted this lineup into 2 contests:

Dodson
Dern
O Malley
Caraway
Zingano
Lombard

might edit one so I don't have 2 that are the exact same but feeling pretty good about these picks..

[TPowell]

I have not done Draftkings in awhile but submitted this lineup into 2 contests:

Dodson
Dern
O Malley
Caraway
Zingano
Lombard

might edit one so I don't have 2 that are the exact same but feeling pretty good about these picks..

I have dariush, dern, and cyborg in one lineup. I fit them with dolloway, arlovski, and milstead in a gpp. Think if 1/3 get a finish I can cash pretty easily

[TPowell]

+165 seems like nice value for Cat, I have her winning 42.5-45%, but can't seem to pull the trigger on her. I am more so surprised by those people willing to lay almost 2 to 1 on Viera as a relative unknown. I think there may be some public noise associated with Cat that she is mentally unstable and due to her recent trauma/inactivity/loss to Pena that may be driving this movement.

She literally never fights. That is one reason the inactivity doesn't bother me. She's never fought twice a year in nearly 7 years as a pro.

[Richard Clock]

She literally never fights. That is one reason the inactivity doesn't bother me. She's never fought twice a year in nearly 7 years as a pro.

Right, and I agree that inactivity and having "ring rust" in general are overstated factors when handicapping a fight, Diego Ferreira most recently being a good example.

[Richard Clock]

Zingano as high as +175 industry-wide and +170 on 5D. I have a hard time not putting a unit down at +175 if it gets to there on 5D.

[TPowell]

Edgar under -150 lmao. What is going on with this world. -150 and prayer master by sub at +415

[TPowell]

Sprinkle action on Ortega in r3 at +1325 as well and we have an overall winner for this fight. Can't see how Frankie loses to this guy.

[Sanity Check]

Watching embeddeds. Cyborg's cat "Sugar Ray Leopard".

That's the funniest thing I've seen on an embedded in a long time.

Soukhamthath calling himself "the asian sensation". Isn't that what Nam Phan used to call himself?

Another one I like is... Secret Asian Man (to the tune of Secret Agent Man).

[Shagdogy]

Edgar under -150 lmao. What is going on with this world. -150 and prayer master by sub at +415

Edgar at -150 is making me wanna play more. I have 1.5u on him in a parlay with Johnson. Might need to add 1.5 more straight. Pretty sure it's worth it, although I don't want to bet too confidently against Ortega.

[TPowell]

Edgar at -150 is making me wanna play more. I have 1.5u on him in a parlay with Johnson. Might need to add 1.5 more straight. Pretty sure it's worth it, although I don't want to bet too confidently against Ortega.

Thing is you CAN bet confidently against Ortega because you know he's just going to say "oh shit I'm down 2-0 round wise, I need a finish". You can hedge with the R3 prop very effectively or even him by SUB at over +300 IMO

[Sanity Check]

I don't know why I feel so negative on Frankie Edgar. I feel like... he doesn't know how to throw a punch properly. He can't stand with Jose Aldo, Max Holloway, Cub Swanson or any of the top strikers at 145. Partly because of his reach and height disadvantage. Partly because if you look at the position of his hands when he punches, his form and technique are off. He doesn't punch correctly which decreases his power.

If Frankie doesn't get his takedown against Jose Aldo or any of the top strikers @ 145 he's just a punching bag with legs. He doesn't offer much resistance.

Also I dislike Frankie's manager Ali Abdelaziz & think he could be a bad influence on MMA and the sport in general. His manager had connectons to terrorists in the past & that could be a big part of the reason Frankie Edgar walked out to the cage with the Bahrain flag in one of his past fights.

Lose Frankie lose. I don't normally want to see anyone lose but I got to make an exception here.

[TPowell]

I don't know why I feel so negative on Frankie Edgar. I feel like... he doesn't know how to throw a punch properly. He can't stand with Jose Aldo, Max Holloway, Cub Swanson or any of the top strikers at 145. Partly because of his reach and height disadvantage. Partly because if you look at the position of his hands when he punches, his form and technique are off. He doesn't punch correctly which decreases his power.

If Frankie doesn't get his takedown against Jose Aldo or any of the top strikers @ 145 he's just a punching bag with legs. He doesn't offer much resistance.



Also I dislike Frankie's manager Ali Abdelaziz & think he could be a bad influence on MMA and the sport in general. His manager had connectons to terrorists in the past & that could be a big part of the reason Frankie Edgar walked out to the cage with the Bahrain flag in one of his past fights.

Lose Frankie lose. I don't normally want to see anyone lose but I got to make an exception here.

Same guy slept Chad Mendes with a big shot though. He also only gives up an inch of reach in this fight. Frankie isn't the little short guy that most think and his boxing is pretty decent. His only trouble comes against more dynamic athletes with quickness like Aldo and Bendo

[Sanity Check]

Same guy slept Chad Mendes with a big shot though. He also only gives up an inch of reach in this fight. Frankie isn't the little short guy that most think and his boxing is pretty decent. His only trouble comes against more dynamic athletes with quickness like Aldo and Bendo

He didn't sleep Chad Mendes.

Mendes got up afterward and wasn't hurt at all. Frankie Edgar's glove got stuck in the corner of Chad Mendes' mouth or something like that and that's why Mendes hit the canvas. At least that's what Urijah Faber said. Can't vouch for the legitimacy of things he says though after all those "questionable stories" he told about TJ Dillashaw "ending" Chris Holdsworth's career.

edit - 5:30



Hard to tell how hurt Chad was.

Looks like Chad tells the referee "I'm fine" in the corner when the ref is hugging him.

At 6:02 Mendes is shaking his head and laughing like he wasn't hurt and it was a bad stoppage. Maybe he was deluding himself? Even fighters aren't aware of how hurt or rocked they are at times. They don't realize it until they stand up and try to walk and to the James Brown stanky leg dance.

Of course, the person most surprised by the "KO/TKO" finish is Frankie Edgar who never expected it in a million years.

[TPowell]

He didn't sleep Chad Mendes.

Mendes got up afterward and wasn't hurt at all. Frankie Edgar's glove got stuck in the corner of Chad Mendes' mouth or something like that and that's why Mendes hit the canvas. At least that's what Urijah Faber said. Can't vouch for the legitimacy of things he says though after all those "questionable stories" he told about TJ Dillashaw "ending" Chris Holdsworth's career.

edit - 5:30



Hard to tell how hurt Chad was.

Looks like Chad tells the referee "I'm fine" in the corner when the ref is hugging him.

At 6:02 Mendes is shaking his head and laughing like he wasn't hurt and it was a bad stoppage.

Of course, the person most surprised by the "KO/TKO" finish is Frankie Edgar who never expected it in a million years.

Rewatch it in slo-mo on Fight Pass. It hits close to Chad's nose IMO

[Richard Clock]

He didn't sleep Chad Mendes.

Mendes got up afterward and wasn't hurt at all. Frankie Edgar's glove got stuck in the corner of Chad Mendes' mouth or something like that and that's why Mendes hit the canvas. At least that's what Urijah Faber said. Can't vouch for the legitimacy of things he says though after all those "questionable stories" he told about TJ Dillashaw "ending" Chris Holdsworth's career.

edit - 5:30



Hard to tell how hurt Chad was.

Looks like Chad tells the referee "I'm fine" in the corner when the ref is hugging him.

At 6:02 Mendes is shaking his head and laughing like he wasn't hurt and it was a bad stoppage. Maybe he was deluding himself? Even fighters aren't aware of how hurt or rocked they are at times. They don't realize it until they stand up and try to walk and to the James Brown stanky leg dance.

Of course, the person most surprised by the "KO/TKO" finish is Frankie Edgar who never expected it in a million years.

He got knocked out. Can you not?

[Sanity Check]

When Chad is flat on his back, he has the presence of mind to block with his left hand. You can see him try to philly shell.

That doesn't count as "knocked out" imo.

Its very strange for me to be negative like this... That second Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo fight where Aldo only fought the last 1-2 minutes of every round and still managed to outpoint Frankie were too much. All Frankie had to do is push the pace a little more the way Max Holloway did and I think he could have won via TKO.

...

I really like Sean O'Malley's stand up technique and clean kickboxing. I think he might outclass Southhamthath if the fight stays standing. Of course, its impossible to measure the size of Southhamthath's heart or his toughness.

[TPowell]

When Chad is flat on his back, he has the presence of mind to block with his left hand. You can see him try to philly shell.

That doesn't count as "knocked out" imo.

Its very strange for me to be negative like this... That second Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo fight where Aldo only fought the last 1-2 minutes of every round and still managed to outpoint Frankie were too much. All Frankie had to do is push the pace a little more the way Max Holloway did and I think he could have won via TKO.

...

I really like Sean O'Malley's stand up technique and clean kickboxing. I think he might outclass Southhamthath if the fight stays standing. Of course, its impossible to measure the size of Southhamthath's heart or his toughness.

Fair enough but Ortega has been worked on the feet by some pretty average guys before and lost rounds and needed sub wins late. Frankie at least defends subs decently IMO. He's tough to choke with his short neck so I think he can outpoint Ortega on the feet for the first 2 rounds

[firekillex]

I don't know why I feel so negative on Frankie Edgar. I feel like... he doesn't know how to throw a punch properly. He can't stand with Jose Aldo, Max Holloway, Cub Swanson or any of the top strikers at 145. Partly because of his reach and height disadvantage. Partly because if you look at the position of his hands when he punches, his form and technique are off. He doesn't punch correctly which decreases his power.

If Frankie doesn't get his takedown against Jose Aldo or any of the top strikers @ 145 he's just a punching bag with legs. He doesn't offer much resistance.

Also I dislike Frankie's manager Ali Abdelaziz & think he could be a bad influence on MMA and the sport in general. His manager had connectons to terrorists in the past & that could be a big part of the reason Frankie Edgar walked out to the cage with the Bahrain flag in one of his past fights.

Lose Frankie lose. I don't normally want to see anyone lose but I got to make an exception here.

wtf lmao
frankie edgar is a great boxer..... and one of the nicest guys in the UFC
whats his manager have anything to do with him lol

[TPowell]

Zingao in R3 at +1325, same price as Ortega. On both for sprinkles.

Cat is typically a slow starter and we've saw Vieira wilt in the 3rd against aggressive opposition in Kelly Fasholtz. Her slow starts make me nervous but she did win the 1st round against Pena at UFC 200 in her last fight.

[eligibletackle]

ET here chiming in on Edgar

Who does FE really struggle against unless giving up a significant size (Bendo) or length (Aldo) advantage to ? I am always down to fade somebody b/c of too many 'fight miles' but that's not Edgar despite his time in the game. Edgar against somebody who feels comfortable on their back in a 3 rounder? Give me that shit straight up and also some laying -3.5 @ +140.

Barring something freakish, hard to see Ortega winning ITD. these Ortega via sub/ITD hedges seem way way way overpriced

[eligibletackle]

I don't know why I feel so negative on Frankie Edgar. I feel like... he doesn't know how to throw a punch properly

lmao

i remember having Sherk @ -320 or something - that sucked. To bet against FE's hands on an opponent like Ortega is .... less than ideal

[Richard Clock]

Line for Cat has moved up to +185 on 5D. Already have almost a unit at +170. I am very surprised by the degree of action on Ketlen here. I am definitely going to put a little more on Cat at +185 or better, just not sure how much higher this is going to rise. Maybe I am missing something in my analysis, but I don't see Viera as this big of a fave here.