[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-Per-view 10:00 pm ET
Cris Cyborg vs Yana Kunitskaya (for featherweight title)
Frankie Edgar vs Brian Ortega
Sean O'malley vs Andre Soukhamthath
Andrei Arlovski vs Stefan Struve
Ketlen Vieira vs Cat Zingano

FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Mackenzie Dern vs Ashley Yoder
Beneil Dariush vs Bobby Green
John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz
CB Dollaway vs Hector Lombard

UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
Zak Ottow vs Mike Pyle
Bryan Caraway vs Cody Stamann
Jordan Johnson vs Adam Milstead

[Richard Clock]

Very good looking card. I took Munhoz vs Dodson on the Brazil card at +140 and +155, so I guess I have to take him again at those prices?

I should have jumped on Ortega when he spiked at +190, and Arvloski when he was at +200 odds, but I'm afraid they have lost quite a bit of value since.

[firekillex]

egdar by decision all day

cyborg round 2/3 finish by mauling

struve by tko

[Thrilla]

Cant trust Struve at those odds. No chin no technique no speed. All he has is size. Arlovski to me worth a bet.

GL

[Thrilla]

UFC Rising Stars: Brian Ortega

[firekillex]

cat zingano +110
im on it

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Cyborg has a good chance

[BIGDAY]

Struve can not be trusted imo.

[firekillex]

I think Cyborg has a good chance

lolllllll gonna be a certified ass whoopin, get your popcorn everybody
another goat about to be slaughtered

[Shagdogy]

I need a win. Trying not to overthink this. I was as impressed with Ortega as ever in his last fight, but Edgar is simply going to be too skilled and too veteran for him, right?

I can't imagine any scenario where Frankie willingly engages in Ortega's game, and if Edgar is dictating where the fight takes place, I can't imagine Ortega has the skill to go take the fight from him on the feet. He's going to need a stoppage, and while he's incredible at it, I just can't see it happening AGAIN, this time against his toughest opponent yet who has NEVER been finished.

Anyone else looking to hitch their wagon to Edgar here?

[rsynweap84]

Ughhh so hung over...must cap

[Fence]

I believe Edgar to be too skilled on the feet and the gap in SU most likely hasn't been filled by Ortega yet. I think Edgar scores points in the standup all day and takes the decision; should have a speed and technique edge. I'm not so much worried about Ortega's ground game as I am his size as FE has always had issues with fighters who have some size on him (most of his losses) and Ortega has a really big natural frame - I think he is actually closer to 5'11" and certainly not the 5'8" certain websites have him listed - I think he had obviously grown a few inches in his early to late twenties.

I don't like the current odds though; would rather parlay Frankie or pick the prop bet for decision.

[Sanity Check]

Interested to see how far Mackenzie Dern can go training @ MMA Lab, which could be one of the worst big name MMA gyms out thar.

:/

[JIBBBY]

So this got next.. Bring it!!!!

Can't rule out a Brian Ortega submission.. I kinda am liking Frankie Edgar though in this one but it's no lock that's for sure.. Brian Ortega is the real deal.... He's got the granite chin and can bang with the best of them and he's very good with his Jits and subs as well...

Frankie is gonna have a fight on his hands that's for sure..

[Thrilla]

No interest in Arlovski atm. Seems those opening odds were on 5 dimes only....low betting limits. Pinnacle opened @ +180. Struve interesting now.

The earlier you wanna bet on opening odds the lower the betting limit.

[Shagdogy]

So Edgar hasn't faced a real BJJ threat since Oliveira and BJ Penn in 2014, but even back then BJ was barely a threat in any way.

In both fights Edgar was able to spend time inside of their guards and not face any danger at all. Not that big of a feat against BJ who was strictly defense off his back, but Oliveira round 1 is always a danger on the mat and Frankie had no trouble. The only concern I've seen is in his last fight vs Rodriguez he stuck his head in deep on a guillotine as he was working a double leg. He was very aware of the guillotine threat and he picked Yair up off the ground but still went down inside of his guard. Yair just wasn't able to hold on to that guillotine. Based on what we saw of Ortega vs Cub you don't wanna gamble in that way at all...

However, that's still not that scary if you're backing Edgar because he can dictate whether or not he ends up in that position, and he has never been a low IQ fighter. Chances are he abandons that type of TD against Ortega, and maybe TDs altogether.

Meanwhile, Ortega is not invincible on the mat. He has lost rounds on his back if he is unable to sub or sweep. I think Frankie has what it takes to get a TD, score with a bit of top position and get out. He may not need to do that if the standup is going very well, but I think he could.

Finally, many of Ortega's finishes have come late in fights as his opponents are mentally or physically tired. I don't expect Edgar to fatigue mentally or physically in a 3 round fight.

I like Ortega a lot but I really don't like him in this spot.

[Thrilla]

"THE ANSWER" Frankie Edgar

22-5-1

Never been finished. Carefull with those Ortega sub props.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter...gar-the-answer

[Sanity Check]

Its sad how a lot of 145'ers don't seem to know what to do with themselves now that Conor is out of the picture.

There was no "Plan B". With the exception of Max Holloway, Jeremy Stephens and a few others that divsion died when Conor left it.

Nothing personal but I hope Frankie Edgar and Mackenzie Dern both lose. Frankie is becoming the next Urijah Faber he receives title shots and is never able to do anything with them. Mackenzie Dern trains out of MMA Lab which is almost as bad.

Some upsets on this card wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, I'm thinking.

[JIBBBY]

Shag, I don't know if Frankie wants to stand and duke it out all fight with Ortega as he could get caught.. Ortega will have the slight height and reach advantage as well.. Ortega's stand up has been steadily improving also...

Ortega will threaten with Subs is Frankie keeps shooting in for the take downs also.. 7 of his 13 wins have come by way of Submission victories..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

Dangerous fight for Frankie IMO... Ortega still remains undefeated.. Hard to bet against that...

Main Card



Frankie
Edgar
"The Answer"
vs
Brian
Ortega
"T-City"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

21-5-1
Record
13-0-0, 1NC

24%
KO/TKO
15%

19%
SUB
54%

52%
DEC
31%

66 in
Height
68 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

68 in
Reach
69 in

37 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[TPowell]

Looking at the first fight first. Jordan Johnson and Adam Milstead. I remember laying the juice on Blaydes against Milstead in his 2nd UFC fight and watching him get absolutely mauled wrestling wise on the ground. Milstead was WAY too small at HW and Blaydes punked him. Interetingly enough though, Blaydes couldn't finish the guy until his knee literally popped out of place (torn ACL and meniscus) in the 2nd round. Milstead showed some heart in that fight by staying in it despite being mauled and pounded on the ground. I'm listening to an interview from October on Youtube now and he said he was hoping to be 100% healthy at the end of 2017. He said the typical ACL surgery is around an hour plus and his surgery was over 4 hours. He also kept his full time job during that time period and still has it.

[TPowell]

An over play seems like it would have some value with this fight but I hate the fact that Milstead has torn his ACL twice now and torn his meniscus twice as well. Jordan Johnson just doesn't have any type of power on the feet and even on the ground isn't a huge threat to finish with strikes. He does however have excellent cardio and a really solid chin. I'll have to do a little more tape on Milstead to check out if he has much power and what his chin looks like.

[TPowell]

I forgot how early Milstead hurt his knee in that Blaydes fight. It was mid way through the 1st round and he still survived until early in the 2nd when he just screamed out in pain. Never said a word to his corner about his knee being hurt. Couldn't learn much else other than the guy was way undersized at HW and has a lot of heart. Will update later with more

[firekillex]

frankie has better stand up then ortega by a significant amount... his whole gameplan will literally be to keep the fight standing and piece him up lolll.......

[TPowell]

Wow I literally used to not watch virtually any fights. Milstead is aggressive as hell on the feet pushing forward but wow is he sloppy. He shows some quick hands against De La Rocha but that is bottom of the barrel athletic competition at HW. He still manages to get tagged at times but he wears it pretty well. Even awful De La Rocha is able to time a TD on him and get him down but he wasn't able to keep him there. Milstead's getup game was very very good at HW. Even Blaydes had trouble keeping him down before he could flatten him out. He forced Blaydes to try to slam him continuously to keep him down. Saw the entire De La Rocha fight now. Milstead hit him with the kitchen sink and gassed himself late in round 2 doing so but he finally him enough for the ref to just step in and call the fight. De La Rocha didn't really even look like he was on shaky legs to me. Danny O's finish of him via strikes was much more impressive and he's also a smaller HW like Milstead who isn't extremely powerful.

[TPowell]

frankie has better stand up then ortega by a significant amount... his whole gameplan will literally be to keep the fight standing and piece him up lolll.......

Clay Guida looked really good standing against Ortega not long ago. What in the world would Edgar look like against him on the feet? Its Edgar or Ortega by prayer IMO

[JIBBBY]

Ortega has the chin to take one to give one.. Frankie has gotten rocked in fights before from punches also...

I gotta go with Ortega in this one.. The 0 doesn't go....

[firekillex]

ortega has lost rounds to much worse fighters then edgar
edgar going to dominate this fight

edgar is underrated... ortega is overrated
gonna be easy work

[Sanity Check]

Uh. If you want a technical breakdown. Brian Ortega tested positive for steroids awhile ago. He might not have the cardio to last 5. You can see him pacing himself in 3 round fights which causes him to lose rounds due to inactivity. Ortega paces himself in rounds 1 and 2. Then he goes all out in round 3 & finishes the fight. He does it in most of his fights, which is crazy.

If I remember right Cub Swanson was beating Frankie Edgar on the feet. Ortega didn't too bad against Cub standing.

Frankie @ 5'6 might be too small for 145. He only looks good when he can outwrestle his opponents. Otherwise his fights are boring and it doesn't seem like he's improving while everyone else is looking better all the time. I hope Frankie retires, all he does is whine about Conor.

[TPowell]

Have to admit though. Johnson had an easy time against Da Silva in his UFC debut at altitude. Da Silva gases normally but in Denver and only getting there 7 days before the fight, he easily wore him down in a round plus. He threatens with subs much more than I remember as well. He has some options from that front headlock position that is incredibly rare for NCAA wrestlers. Makes my over theory a little more dicey but he couldn't sub an absolutely gassed Da Silva like Paul Craig did.

[TPowell]

Now comes the moment of truth for Jordan Johnson IMO. Re-watching that disappointing effort against Fortuna. Didn't realize Fortuna had been working with Cormier some before the fight until hearing it from Stann (?) in the commentary this time around. A lot of this inactivity was on Fortuna IMO. Johnson is a patient smart fighter and obviously not rushing in with that massive reach against him. He got ate up on the feet in the 2nd against Fortuna. Fortuna just seemed to be quicker and have his timing in the round. He ate some big shots and outside of being a little rattled, he handled them fine. He didn't seem to be on jello legs from some massive Fortuna shots. I'm not sure why he couldn't time a TD on Fortuna though. Starting to think a lot of his wrestling is more sweeps/trips and timing TD's as opposed to bull rushing the other guy. Johnson pushed forward on Fortuna and outstruck him to win the 3rd. Was way more active and just wanted it more. Love the guys intelligence level and poise.

[TPowell]

Why doesn't Jordan still go by Jordan "Big Swingin" Johnson in the UFC? He did in RFA. That is an awesome nickname.

[Shagdogy]

Shag, I don't know if Frankie wants to stand and duke it out all fight with Ortega as he could get caught.. Ortega will have the slight height and reach advantage as well.. Ortega's stand up has been steadily improving also...

Ortega will threaten with Subs is Frankie keeps shooting in for the take downs also.. 7 of his 13 wins have come by way of Submission victories..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

Dangerous fight for Frankie IMO... Ortega still remains undefeated.. Hard to bet against that...

Main Card



Frankie
Edgar
"The Answer"
vs
Brian
Ortega
"T-City"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

21-5-1
Record
13-0-0, 1NC

24%
KO/TKO
15%

19%
SUB
54%

52%
DEC
31%

66 in
Height
68 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

68 in
Reach
69 in

37 in
Leg Reach
39 in

And Frankie remains unfinished going into a 3 round fight against a terrible round winner. I don't think it's as simple as just stats. However, I believe Frankie has the durability and savvy to avoid being finished. In almost every fight Ortega has finished, he would lose if it went to cards.

[TPowell]

And Frankie remains unfinished going into a 3 round fight against a terrible round winner. I don't think it's as simple as just stats. However, I believe Frankie has the durability and savvy to avoid being finished. In almost every fight Ortega has finished, he would lose if it went to cards.

I think taking out almost may actually be more accurate. Crazy for a guy at the cusp of title contendership

[Shagdogy]

I think taking out almost may actually be more accurate. Crazy for a guy at the cusp of title contendership

Yeah I wasn't 100% sure so I played it safe but I think you're right. He has prob been behind on the cards every time, which basically means he's down 2-0 going into round 3. Period. He may have been 1-1 with Moicano. Against Edgar, it seems super unlikely he goes into round 3 needing a finish with both fighters knowing it, and still gets it - the first time anyone has ever finished Frankie. Not impossible but I would bet against it.

That said if you're the hedging type it has to be Ortega by sub. Frankie has been rocked but he doesn't get put out cold and club and sub is more likely than TKO in my opinion.

[TPowell]

Yeah I wasn't 100% sure so I played it safe but I think you're right. He has prob been behind on the cards every time, which basically means he's down 2-0 going into round 3. Period. He may have been 1-1 with Moicano. Against Edgar, it seems super unlikely he goes into round 3 needing a finish with both fighters knowing it, and still gets it - the first time anyone has ever finished Frankie. Not impossible but I would bet against it.

That said if you're the hedging type it has to be Ortega by sub. Frankie has been rocked but he doesn't get put out cold and club and sub is more likely than TKO in my opinion.

Yep exactly. Not sure I'll play the fight due to how volatile Ortega fights are