[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX 8:00 pm ET
Jeremy Stephens vs Josh Emmett
Jessica Andrade vs Tecia Torres
Ilir Latifi vs Ovince Saint Preux
Max Griffin vs Mike Perry

FOX 6:00 pm ET
Renan Barao vs Brain Kelleher
Sara McMann vs Marion Reneau
Angela Hill vs Maryna Moroz
Alan Jouban vs Ben Saunders

UFC Fight Pass 4:00 pm ET
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Gilbert Burns
Sam Alvey vs Marcin Prachnio
Russell Doane vs Rani Yahya
Alex Perez vs Eric Shelton
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Aleksandar Rakic

[JC2008]

- Hard to ignore Josh Emmett as a dog. He's a beast. Not to mention Stephens just fought.

[Thrilla]

- Hard to ignore Josh Emmett as a dog. He's a beast. Not to mention Stephens just fought.

Not sure if thats a bad thing. He could be toughened by the experience of battle.

[JC2008]

Not sure if thats a bad thing. He could be toughened by the experience of battle.

Maybe... But Emmett is a beast and I learned my lesson last fight when he was +210 against Lamas. I realize it has no bearing on this fight but I still think he'll win it somehow. We'll see I guess!

[firekillex]

Jeremy Stephens about to EATTTTT

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jeremy Stephens about to EATTTTT

Do you think he gets a KO here?

[Demonata]

I take Stephens in a brawl over Emmett any day. I think Stephens knocks his assistant out.

[firekillex]

Do you think he gets a KO here?

5 round fight... cant see him not getting a finish
Stephens is on a different level guys an animal

those leg kicks have been lethal lately too, Emmet comes in trying to throw leather hes getting KOD

[Hugo de Naranja]

I take Stephens in a brawl over Emmett any day. I think Stephens knocks his assistant out.

What did Emmett’s Assistant do to deserve being knocked out by Stephens?

[Demonata]

What did Emmett’s Assistant do to deserve being knocked out by Stephens?

Hahaha damn spell check

[TPowell]

Excellent price on Stephens here. You have to dance around Stephens or take him down to be successful and I don't see Emmett being able to stick to that for 5 rounds. Plus, the guy is VASTLY overrated. At LW he had a back and forth fight with Scott Holtzman and was beaten pretty decisively IMO by Desmond Green. He drops down to FW and dominates a bum like Arantes and KO's Lamas early before we really saw much and he's supposed to be a contender at 145? I'll load up more on Stephens if fight night gets closer and he's under -150

[JIBBBY]

So this event got next!!! Alot of chick fights which I don't really appreciate...

That Emmet/Heathen fight is a good one and tough call.. Good match up.. Both can bang.. Emmet might knock Stevens head off actually, he's compact and hit's HARD..... Josh throws with evil intentions just like little Heathen does though.. I give Stevens the cardio advantage... Tough to pick a clean winner in this one..

[TPowell]

Stephens 2.5 units at -130
Hill/Moroz 3 units at -300
Perry ML for 2 units to close parlay at +118

[TPowell]

I will be parlaying Perry ML with other stuff I like on this card and future cards. I will also be on Hill ML and Hill by DEC at some point.

[JIBBBY]

I will be parlaying Perry ML with other stuff I like on this card and future cards. I will also be on Hill ML and Hill by DEC at some point.

I certainly like Mike Perry as well in this fight. Odds suck though but they're spot on..

[Thrilla]

UFC FN Orlando / Road to the Octagon.

Josh Emmett vs Jeremy Stephens


Ovince Saint Preux vs Ilir Latifi


Jessica Andrade vs Tecia Torres

[JIBBBY]

I'm kinda liking Latifi.. He's tough, OSP is very average now.. OSP has fought bums lately and hasn't looked that great to me.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842

Latifi tough as they come and will test OSP for sure.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ilir-Latifi-40207

[JC2008]

Agreed on Latifi.

[ken10]

I looove Renan Barão at -165. Great spot for him. He’s run into some tough matchups in Stephens and Sterling for losses (bigger guys, good cardio, good grappling). I don’t think Kelleher has size or grappling, or most importantly the kind of tight, accurate striking to beat Barão.

I hope Barão’s cardio survives kellehers pressure. If so, he will pick kelleher apart. I’ll do a .5 unit for now and add another .5 hoping the odds move in Barãos favor.

[TPowell]

I looove Renan Barão at -165. Great spot for him. He’s run into some tough matchups in Stephens and Sterling for losses (bigger guys, good cardio, good grappling). I don’t think Kelleher has size or grappling, or most importantly the kind of tight, accurate striking to beat Barão.

I hope Barão’s cardio survives kellehers pressure. If so, he will pick kelleher apart. I’ll do a .5 unit for now and add another .5 hoping the odds move in Barãos favor.

I'm shocked the UFC is still letting Barao get down to 135 honestly

[Unwritten Law]

Emmett and Barao are nice value. Think Perry gets it done as well. Jouban should make quick work of Saunders.

[Richard Clock]

Not much value to be had at the current prices. Prob won't go crazy on volume on this card and instead dedicate my research hours this week for UFC 222.

[PaperTrail07]

Preux Perry Parlay

[firekillex]

side note
if rose beats JJ again
andrade will be champion in 2018

[Demonata]

Man Stephen's such a good price. Also got to love the swede latifi

[Shagdogy]

Albert Morales and Eric Shelton getting no love going up against much less battle tested opponents. I think they're both worth bets at dog odds. I could easily see 1-1 between the two of them.

Go back and dig through Manny Bermudez's available regional fight vid and find him fighting anyone as difficult as the opponents Morales has faced in the UFC. Also, Morales never been subbed, and when Bermudez couldn't finish Saul Almeida and went to decision, he was apparently gifted the win that he didn't earn because Almeida flat out worked him. Well, Morales has high grit and won't go away easy in this one. If Bermudez doesn't finish early he may find out these guys are on a different level than his NE regional foes.

Shelton/Perez is tougher to get a read on but favoring Perez this heavily just seems wrong. Again, Shelton has faced the tougher competition. Also, I don't recall seeing him worked over using the front headlock/d'arce sequence that Perez loves. This is a good matchup. At this price I can't imagine taking the fav.

[firekillex]

will be on eric shelton as well, guys super young and developing at a rapid rate... great price at +170

[Shagdogy]

will be on eric shelton as well, guys super young and developing at a rapid rate... great price at +170

Damn. +130 now and still not up for me at BookMaker. Same for Morales who has dropped as well. Damn damn damn.

[firekillex]

Damn. +130 now and still not up for me at BookMaker. Same for Morales who has dropped as well. Damn damn damn.

hit that with the quickness at +170
i had super high hopes for eric shelton watching TUF watching him mature, i think if he gets to a good camp and keeps improving hes a top 10 quality fighter no doubt in my mind

[turbozed]

Damn. +130 now and still not up for me at BookMaker. Same for Morales who has dropped as well. Damn damn damn.

How come you haven't signed up for a 5D account?

[firekillex]

How come you haven't signed up for a 5D account?

5dimes is king for mma betting IMO

[Shagdogy]

How come you haven't signed up for a 5D account?

I use a bookie. A friend of mine. My lines match BookMaker's, so I don't often get the openers, and I have limited props and no live options. However, I don't have to load an account and I can deal directly in cash. Since I've been positive since getting back in to just betting MMA, I haven't had to have a single dollar tied up this whole time. So that's my trade off.

[Shagdogy]

How come you haven't signed up for a 5D account?

While you're around Turbo, what you got in Hill/Moroz? I've been reading a few people who really like Hill, but after capping it, I don't see anything better than a close decision either way, probably split. Hill has a nice long jab, but even that falls short often, and while Moroz will have a speed disadvantage, her counters are decently accurate and she should land a few of them. The biggest advantage IMO is if Hill chooses to punctuate her combos with leg kicks she should find some success, but counting on the judges to reward leg kicks is not where I'm most confident with my money. Seems like this one likely is a close enough decision that I can't be too confident betting either side with where the line is.

[turbozed]

While you're around Turbo, what you got in Hill/Moroz? I've been reading a few people who really like Hill, but after capping it, I don't see anything better than a close decision either way, probably split. Hill has a nice long jab, but even that falls short often, and while Moroz will have a speed disadvantage, her counters are decently accurate and she should land a few of them. The biggest advantage IMO is if Hill chooses to punctuate her combos with leg kicks she should find some success, but counting on the judges to reward leg kicks is not where I'm most confident with my money. Seems like this one likely is a close enough decision that I can't be too confident betting either side with where the line is.

I would've bet Hill at the opener of +100. But at -150 I feel like all of the value is gone. I also think it'll be a close decision with the x-factor being how much Hill has improved since her last few fights. I've stalked both of their instagram accounts and it looks like Hill is training with the better team at Alliance MMA. Her style requires a lot of conditioning, so there's lots of videos of her doing sprints and conditioning drills.

Hill should be the more active and diverse striker. And she can win it on volume. Moroz is easy to counter. If you can avoid her 1-2 by slipping or angling off, she's there to be hit. Letourneau dropped her and Stanciu had some success hitting Moroz with counters. Unfortunately, Hill's style isn't suited to punishing Moroz for her bad tendencies. Hill throws out volume regardless of what her opponent is doing and is really in her own rhythm.

Moroz has some advantages here though. She doesn't waste movement. She always looks in control and, even when she's hit she wears it well. She also throws very lovely looking straight punches. Compare this to Hill who is going to be bobbing and weaving and presumably going to look tired in the later part of the fight and this might look bad for the judges even if Hill is landing more on paper. I also think Moroz has faster hands. She can be surprisingly fast in spurts.

I do think this is going to be a kickboxing match and both are durable enough to not worry too much about a stoppage so I played the over 2.5 when it was -310 along with Andrade who I don't see losing to Torres (probably the most square parlay possible but I do feel very confident in both results).

I'm a big fan of Hill, and I was sure I'd bet on her against Moroz pre-tape. But I'm just not confident enough at current prices unfortunately.

[Shagdogy]

I'm a big fan of Hill, and I was sure I'd bet on her against Moroz pre-tape. But I'm just not confident enough at current prices unfortunately.

Yup. That pretty much sums up how I felt. Went looking for a reason to bet Hill, but objectively the value in the line isn't there.

I do like the over as a parlay piece. Hard to see this fight getting finished.