[Hugo de Naranja]

Damn it is worrisome to see that none of the vets so far feel strongly about Barão like I do. Barão started strong and won one round from sterling and Stephens... and even though he eventually lost against them, those guys are much better fighters than kelleher. Even though kelleher has pressure I believe this fight goes where Barão wants it to go including the ground.

Curious to see what jibbs and Hugo pick....

I think Barao is washed up and Kelleher will beat him in a good scrap.

[turbozed]

I think Barao is washed up and Kelleher will beat him in a good scrap.

This is my pre-tape opinion of the fight too. I think with Barao it's always helpful to see what he looks like at weigh-ins. I guess he's trying to get down to 135 again, but I wouldn't be surprised if he weighs in at 140 lbs, which I think we should just all call 'Baraoweight' from now on.

[Shagdogy]

Damn it is worrisome to see that none of the vets so far feel strongly about Barão like I do. Barão started strong and won one round from sterling and Stephens... and even though he eventually lost against them, those guys are much better fighters than kelleher. Even though kelleher has pressure I believe this fight goes where Barão wants it to go including the ground.

Curious to see what jibbs and Hugo pick....

I think he should be able to take the fight down, but (1) will he? He didn't attempt any TD until it was too late against Aljo. I also think Aljo only lost round 1 due to slipping on a kick. And (2) Kelleher is very good at countering TD attempts with his guillotine to defend it or sweep. Not sure how this will play out.

I do think Barao at ATT means it's more likely he could use his size advantage to ground Kelleher some.

As for Hugo, I think he said somewhere else on this forum he thinks Kelleher beats Barao up, and that Barao is a shot fighter. He may feel more strongly about Kelleher than I.

[Shagdogy]

This is my pre-tape opinion of the fight too. I think with Barao it's always helpful to see what he looks like at weigh-ins. I guess he's trying to get down to 135 again, but I wouldn't be surprised if he weighs in at 140 lbs, which I think we should just all call 'Baraoweight' from now on.

Good point. I'd feel better betting Kelleher if we see an on weight, drawn in, exhausted looking Barao. If he's 140+ then he could likely be continuing the BS string of guys who don't cut all the way, save energy, and win fights.

[turbozed]

Also, Kelleher trains with Aljo, so I'm sure he's gotten some good insight from that camp on beating Barao.

One thing I like about Kelleher, the guy has 4 wins in Round 3. I've found that guys that can finish in Round 3 have very good cardio, willpower, fight IQ, killer instinct, or a combination of all of the above. It's usually a sign of something good.

[Richard Clock]

I think Barao is washed up and Kelleher will beat him in a good scrap.

What are you defining as washed up? I think we can both agree that Barao is no longer at the point in his career athletically/mentally that he can compete with the very best in the division (BW or FW). However, I do believe he still has the technical capacity and enough in the "tank" to beat mid-tier fighters, which I believe Kelleher fits in as. Barao's career trajectory is very similar to Pettis' in that way. Unfortunately, though, he has mainly competed against the two extremes recently: higher-tier competitors and a relative bum in Nover. Also, his recent fights were at 140/145, so there is a lot of uncertainty involving Barao coming into this fight.

How his body reacts physically to the cut is obviously pertinent. However, even if his cut his hellish, I still think Barao has superior enough technique and a size advantage to dictate the pace of this fight and not forced to have his cardio/durability tested. Perhaps to put it another way, I believe a huge reason why Barao has seemingly faded in his previous losses is less related to a cardio issue and more because they were grueling fights in which Barao took a ton of damage and his opponent was able to generally dictate the fight, his last fight versus Sterling being the best example. With that being said, I can also see a scenario where Kelleher does enough to wear down Barao in the earlier rounds, maybe even stealing the 1st or 2nd, and really taking over in the 3rd with a convincing 10-9/10-8 round or even submission. I guess the critical question is how often you believe the above scenarios would occur if you are to simulate this fight many times. At the current odds, I don't feel like I have quite a confident enough grasp on this fight to really take on action. Most of the time, no bet is better than a bet.

I don't normally hedge my bets (maybe a stupid question, but do books allow you to take 2 different sides of a fight, especially if both bets can be losers?), but if I did, I think a decent hedge would be Kelleher in third round (although this prop may be overpriced) or by submission and Barao by decision. Ultimately, we will have to see the prop odds look like/how the moneyline moves before I can consider taking action on this fight.

[Richard Clock]

Also, Kelleher trains with Aljo, so I'm sure he's gotten some good insight from that camp on beating Barao.

One thing I like about Kelleher, the guy has 4 wins in Round 3. I've found that guys that can finish in Round 3 have very good cardio, willpower, fight IQ, killer instinct, or a combination of all of the above. It's usually a sign of something good.

Interestingly enough, Romero and Derrick Lewis are two fighters with multiple 3rd round finishes, yet often are criticized for not having any of the above qualities. Public perception of athletes can be very misleading.

[Teem]

After reading your guys' analysis and through my own, I'm now more confident in picking Kelleher over Barao. Now I'm having trouble picking the Moroz/Hill fight. Who's the chick fight guru here? : )

[turbozed]

Interestingly enough, Romero and Derrick Lewis are two fighters with multiple 3rd round finishes, yet often are criticized for not having any of the above qualities. Public perception of athletes can be very misleading.

In Romero's case, it's good fight IQ, killer instinct, and not really cardio but a good sense of conserving energy for explosive moments.

With Lewis, I suspect he's got some weird energy usage where he'll get super tired early, but can refill his stamina bar just enough to land with power in later rounds. A lot of his opponents see him with his hands on his hips huffing and puffing and they think the fight has slowed down but they are still in danger. A lot of people thought Hunt should've gone for the kill a lot earlier but Hunt played it right. Guys like Tybura lost because they weren't able to get out of danger. With Lewis, if he hasn't thrown anything big in 30 seconds to a minute, he has like 3 strikes charged up. All you have to do is avoid those (easy since his distancing sucks) and you are golden for another 30 seconds to a minute. The fact that Tybura let Lewis recover for a couple of minutes and then stood right in front of him and take 3 big power punches is pretty much the only way he loses. But exactly what he did.

[Richard Clock]

The fact that Tybura let Lewis recover for a couple of minutes and then stood right in front of him and take 3 big power punches is pretty much the only way he loses. But exactly what he did.

This implies that Tybura wasn't tired himself. I have seen Tybura sucking wind in practically all of his recent fights. Maybe we should be giving more credit to Lewis for conserving his energy better than Tybura did (I still think Lewis' cardio is solid for a HW and better than people think), instead of chalking Lewis' win up to some major tactical mistake by Tybura (not necessarily suggesting you believe that, but I have noticed plenty of people not giving Lewis the credit he deserves).

[turbozed]

This implies that Tybura wasn't tired himself. I have seen Tybura sucking wind in practically all of his recent fights. Maybe we should be giving more credit to Lewis for conserving his energy better than Tybura did (I still think Lewis' cardio is solid for a HW and better than people think), instead of chalking Lewis' win up to some major tactical mistake by Tybura (not necessarily suggesting you believe that, but I have noticed plenty of people not giving Lewis the credit he deserves).

I give Lewis credit for not giving up. And I guess he did conserve his energy well in the 2nd round staying calm while mounted. I don't think we saw from Lewis anything in that fight we haven't seen before.

To me, that fight was Tybura's to lose and he deserves all the blame for not using the winning strategy that was literally set out for him by Hunt in Lewis's last fight before him. Pressure Lewis and feint, draw out the big rush, then come in and throw volume. Then feint again after Lewis has recovered a bit. Rinse and repeat.

[Richard Clock]

I give Lewis credit for not giving up. And I guess he did conserve his energy well in the 2nd round staying calm while mounted. I don't think we saw from Lewis anything in that fight we haven't seen before.

To me, that fight was Tybura's to lose and he deserves all the blame for not using the winning strategy that was literally set out for him by Hunt in Lewis's last fight before him. Pressure Lewis and feint, draw out the big rush, then come in and throw volume. Then feint again after Lewis has recovered a bit. Rinse and repeat.

It is hard for me to place much blame on Tybura for not successfully replicating the strategy of a fighter who is far more advanced technically than Tybura is. Lewis and Mike Perry are similar in that way: everyone seems to offer the simple strategy to beat them, but it takes a true technician (Ponz, Jouban, Hunt fought masterfully) to execute it. And even Ponz and Jouban were in trouble at moments.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree Clocker....When I took Jouban over Perry.....it was just a good matchup....little more skilled...less emotional.....picks shots better.....As for Lewis....he is just more explosive than people give him credit for.....fish flops hiss ass off his back....and stores up energy for bull rushes....

It is hard for me to place much blame on Tybura for not successfully replicating the strategy of a fighter who is far more advanced technically than Tybura is. Lewis and Mike Perry are similar in that way: everyone seems to offer the simple strategy to beat them, but it takes a true technician (Ponz, Jouban, Hunt fought masterfully) to execute it. And even Ponz and Jouban were in trouble at moments.

[Demonata]

I hope i can make some money this card

[firekillex]

Ngannou gonna STARCH lewis
sucks because Black Beast is top 3 most entertaining fighter in MMA

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah that's a very very bad matchup for BB.....he could "retire" again....

Ngannou gonna STARCH lewis
sucks because Black Beast is top 3 most entertaining fighter in MMA

[Shagdogy]

Yeah that's a very very bad matchup for BB.....he could "retire" again....

I think black beast has shown to have a stronger chin than Ngannou.

[JIBBBY]

Ngannou looked very beatable and human in his last fight against Stipe but I agree he starches the Black Beast...

Beast was getting his ass kicked basically the entire fight by Tybura also until he caught him late on the chin. More lucky then good in that fight...

[firekillex]

only way black beast beats ngannou is IF he kos him first round imo... his cardio and foot movement is attrocious , a lot of people will be sleeping on Ngannou after getting demolished last fight but Stipe fought the perfect gameplan, not sure Lewis will try or even be able to get Ngannou down.... Ngannous foot movement and speed will win him that fight which i think will be booked soon... hoping to get Ngannou -150 or less would be a great price imo

still i hope Lewis keeps fighting that guy is entertaining as hell

[JIBBBY]

only way black beast beats ngannou is IF he kos him first round imo... his cardio and foot movement is attrocious , a lot of people will be sleeping on Ngannou after getting demolished last fight but Stipe fought the perfect gameplan, not sure Lewis will try or even be able to get Ngannou down.... Ngannous foot movement and speed will win him that fight which i think will be booked soon... hoping to get Ngannou -150 or less would be a great price imo

still i hope Lewis keeps fighting that guy is entertaining as hell

Agreed 100% with ya on this Fire..

The question is to jump on the opening line or wait it out? I'm a little gun shy with jumping on opening lines after I got crappy odds on Cowboy to win.. We'll see?

[Shagdogy]

After all that Barao/Kelleher talk, anyone else feeling the o2.5 at -125?

I'm struggling to find anything that i feel strongly about on this card. Still haven't placed one bet. Will prob stab fractions of a unit at the dogs I like, but none with high confidence.

[Richard Clock]

After all that Barao/Kelleher talk, anyone else feeling the o2.5 at -125?

I'm struggling to find anything that i feel strongly about on this card. Still haven't placed one bet. Will prob stab fractions of a unit at the dogs I like, but none with high confidence.

I think I prefer Barao by decision at +255. Just locked that in for less than a unit. Hoping I didn't jump on that price prematurely, but think the value is there. I'm still not super confident for the reasons above, but I think this fight is competitive and Barao does just enough to eek out a split/29-28 UD.

[rsynweap84]

Welp my leans are as follows:

Stephens TKO
Andrade Straight/ITD
OSP
Perry TKO
Barao
Reneau Straight/ITD
Hill
Jouban TKO
Alvey TKO
Doane ITD

May change/add later.

[firekillex]

Agreed 100% with ya on this Fire..

The question is to jump on the opening line or wait it out? I'm a little gun shy with jumping on opening lines after I got crappy odds on Cowboy to win.. We'll see?

opening lines are basically a crap shoot... ive gotten much better prices on them and got burned a few times example eric shelton +170 opening and its like +125 now... then cerrone i went big -140 and he dropped all the way to -105 in the end ... so its really a 50-50

[Hugo de Naranja]

What are you defining as washed up? I think we can both agree that Barao is no longer at the point in his career athletically/mentally that he can compete with the very best in the division (BW or FW). However, I do believe he still has the technical capacity and enough in the "tank" to beat mid-tier fighters, which I believe Kelleher fits in as. Barao's career trajectory is very similar to Pettis' in that way. Unfortunately, though, he has mainly competed against the two extremes recently: higher-tier competitors and a relative bum in Nover. Also, his recent fights were at 140/145, so there is a lot of uncertainty involving Barao coming into this fight.

How his body reacts physically to the cut is obviously pertinent. However, even if his cut his hellish, I still think Barao has superior enough technique and a size advantage to dictate the pace of this fight and not forced to have his cardio/durability tested. Perhaps to put it another way, I believe a huge reason why Barao has seemingly faded in his previous losses is less related to a cardio issue and more because they were grueling fights in which Barao took a ton of damage and his opponent was able to generally dictate the fight, his last fight versus Sterling being the best example. With that being said, I can also see a scenario where Kelleher does enough to wear down Barao in the earlier rounds, maybe even stealing the 1st or 2nd, and really taking over in the 3rd with a convincing 10-9/10-8 round or even submission. I guess the critical question is how often you believe the above scenarios would occur if you are to simulate this fight many times. At the current odds, I don't feel like I have quite a confident enough grasp on this fight to really take on action. Most of the time, no bet is better than a bet.

I don't normally hedge my bets (maybe a stupid question, but do books allow you to take 2 different sides of a fight, especially if both bets can be losers?), but if I did, I think a decent hedge would be Kelleher in third round (although this prop may be overpriced) or by submission and Barao by decision. Ultimately, we will have to see the prop odds look like/how the moneyline moves before I can consider taking action on this fight.

For my definition of washed up, I think Barao can only beat the bottom level fighters of BW/FTW. I think his gastank is nothing like what it was and he is not nearly as dangerous as he was a few years back. I think the cut will also be a factor here apart from his diminished skills. In short, I believe Barao is a shell of himself.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ngannou looked very beatable and human in his last fight against Stipe but I agree he starches the Black Beast...

Beast was getting his ass kicked basically the entire fight by Tybura also until he caught him late on the chin. More lucky then good in that fight...

Literally every Derrick Lewis fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think a live bet on Kelleher is in play as well. I expect Barao to win a close R1 then gas hard.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think I prefer Barao by decision at +255. Just locked that in for less than a unit. Hoping I didn't jump on that price prematurely, but think the value is there. I'm still not super confident for the reasons above, but I think this fight is competitive and Barao does just enough to eek out a split/29-28 UD.

Since beating Mitch Gagnon, when has Barao looked good in any round other than R1?

The only time I can think of is against Nover who is not UFC caliber.

[Richard Clock]

For my definition of washed up, I think Barao can only beat the bottom level fighters of BW/FTW. I think his gastank is nothing like what it was and he is not nearly as dangerous as he was a few years back. I think the cut will also be a factor here apart from his diminished skills. In short, I believe Barao is a shell of himself.

Not saying you are wrong, but what evidence do we have to suggest this? I think a big part of why Barao faded so badly in the third round of his last fight is that in round 2 Sterling beat Barao up and made him work hard from bottom position. Sterling is far from perfect overall but is an excellent grappler and had the technical capacity to impose his will and dictate the pace of that fight. Kelleher has an admittedly good gas tank, but I question Kelleher's ability to meaningfully test Barao's chin/cardio/durability because he is not quite the same technician as Sterling/Dillashaw, and maybe even Stephens. An interesting point Luke Thomas made in a recent podcast is that being well-rounded (specifically, average in each martial arts discipline) may be an overvalued quality in MMA, and one is often better off being very good/elite at a particular discipline. I believe Kelleher is very close to average at BM with no noticeable holes in his game, while Barao has lost some pop in his striking and at least some durability, but still has an excellent grappling/top game.

Perhaps put more simply, I believe it takes more than just being "tough", "durable" and "relentless" to consistently impose your will and break another fighter, especially one that is as good as Barao technically. You also need to have equally as good/superior technique to dictate a fight. Frankie Edgar breaks people by being an elite technician first, and being tough as nails second.

I have given myself a little more time to think about this matchup so apologize if I am being somewhat self-contradictory from what I wrote earlier today. I never deny my capacity to be way off on a matchup, but I think the value on Barao by decision is appealing.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not saying you are wrong, but what evidence do we have to suggest this? I think a big part of why Barao faded so badly in the third round of his last fight is that in round 2 Sterling beat Barao up and made him work hard from bottom position. Sterling is far from perfect overall but is an excellent grappler and had the technical capacity to impose his will and dictate the pace of that fight. Kelleher has an admittedly good gas tank, but I question Kelleher's ability to meaningfully test Barao's chin/cardio/durability because he is not quite the same technician as Sterling/Dillashaw, and maybe even Stephens. An interesting point Luke Thomas made in a recent podcast is that being well-rounded (specifically, average in each martial arts discipline) may be an overvalued quality in MMA, and one is often better off being very good/elite at a particular discipline. I believe Kelleher is very close to average at BM with no noticeable holes in his game, while Barao has lost some pop in his striking and at least some durability, but still has an excellent grappling/top game.

Perhaps put more simply, I believe it takes more than just being "tough", "durable" and "relentless" to consistently impose your will and break another fighter, especially one that is as good as Barao technically. You also need to have equally as good/superior technique to dictate a fight. Frankie Edgar breaks people by being an elite technician first, and being tough as nails second.

I have given myself a little more time to think about this matchup so apologize if I am being somewhat self-contradictory from what I wrote earlier today. I never deny my capacity to be way off on a matchup, but I think the value on Barao by decision is appealing.

Evidence:
Dillashaw II: Dillashaw basically carved Barao up on the feet in their second fight finishing him with a R4 TKO. He also outlanded Barao in Significant Strikes with 117 to Barao's 62. In that fight, Barao rarely looked dangerous and was completely unable to get the fight to the mat.

Stephens: After clearly winning R1, Barao faded hard in the later rounds. His chin looked solid but he ate power shots again and again in the latter rounds and looked totally flat. Although Barao secured two TDs, he failed to do anything with them and Stephens quickly scrambled back to his feet. Although the fight was close, Barao's inability to keep a high pace over 15 minutes cost him the win.

Sterling: Against a guy who literally doesn't throw punches (only kicks), all Barao had to do was keep the fight on the feet and win a slow paced striking or top control battle. After winning R1 with a grinding top game where he did minimal damage, Barao gassed hard and became totally useless in R2/R3. Sterling was able to take him down and land GNP consistently, showing flaws in Barao's legendary TDD as well as a diminished get up game.

I completely disagree with your "questioning of Kelleher's ability to meaningfully test Barao's chin/cardio/durability". At this point, Kelleher is a much harder one strike puncher than Barao. He is an excellent finisher with 15 ITD wins in his 18 career victories. Kelleher lands over 5 SS/Min and has showcased very good TDD in his short UFC career. He will look to keep this fight on the feet and push a pace, an endeavor I believe he will succeed in. His pressure and power will overwhelm Barao.

I think Barao still has a decent grappling/top control game but he is as good of a finisher from these positions as he once was. Kelleher's biggest flaw is his submission defense and Barao still has solid BJJ so I could see him catching Kelleher in a submission.

I'd argue that you are overrating Barao's technical game. His striking output and power are average at best and his difficult weight cut and gassing tendencies means that his technical game often degrades after R1.

All in all, I think Kelleher either finishes Barao or wins a 29-28 Decision after losing a close R1.

[turbozed]

Alright I have a lot of money locked up in Andrade parlays (probably 3u total which is very high for me).

Here are my assumptions, and maybe you can poke holes in it:

1. Andrade is going to be much, MUCH stronger than Torres. Torres controlled by atomweight Waterson. Andrade was relatively strong even at BANTAMWEIGHT. I don't think Torres can do much in the clinch, against the cage, or undernearth Andrade. Confidence level on this assumption is 90%+.

2. Torres cannot stop Andrade's forward movement. Torres doesn't have the footwork to avoid clinching up. She won't be able to kick at distance for fear of getting taken down. This leaves her punching with short arms meaning she will need to be close to Andrade to get any offense off. Torres' shots aren't powerful enough to deter Andrade even if she is able to land. Andrade's new defense while pressuring is well suited for this matchup. Head movement and draws out a combo before jumping in with strikes now.

Torres' only hope is perfect footwork, landing punches, angling off, and maybe ending combos with a kick. She will need to do this perfectly for 5 minutes for at least 2 out of 3 rounds keeping Andrade at bay. JJ was able to do this to Andrade. However, Torres doesn't have the length, skills or power that JJ does. Andrade has also improved with her feints and head movement. Confidence level in this assumption is 80%+.

I don't think I can be realistically be convinced that assumption #1 is wrong, but #2 might be. Does anyone think Torres has the chops to play an outfighting game against Andrade successfully?

[turbozed]

Anyone else think Doane is a live dog here? I should've taken a look when he was +310. Even at +210 it's looking like there's good value in Doane midway through tape.

[TPowell]

Anyone else think Doane is a live dog here? I should've taken a look when he was +310. Even at +210 it's looking like there's good value in Doane midway through tape.

Would prefer to play him live after the 1st honestly.

[TPowell]

This card is excellent for parlays imo. I like a couple days like Doane and maybe alvey but the rest are coin flips. I think Mike perry should be around -1200 honestly. I just don't think he has a path to lose outside of an injury.

[turbozed]

Would prefer to play him live after the 1st honestly.

It's a Fight Pass Prelim so folks with 5D can't bet it live.

Either way, I don't think it's obvious that Yahya wins the 1st round unless he has made a quantum leap in takedown ability.