[Demonata]

Kinda liking andre sakahamateth as the underdog here.

[JIBBBY]

Jason Knight line is moving..




Jason
Knight
"The Kid"
vs
Gabriel
Benitez
"Moggly"

UNITED STATES
Country
MEXICO

20-3-0
Record
19-7-0

10%
KO/TKO
32%

60%
SUB
53%

20%
DEC
16%

70 in
Height
68 in

145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs

71 in
Reach
71 in

39 in
Leg Reach
40 in

Significant Strikes

3.75
Landed per minute
3.68

37.77%
Accuracy
41.35%

3.08
Absorbed P/M
2.66

49.17%
Defense
70.7%

[Demonata]

Kinda liking andre sakahamateth as the underdog here.

Right when i said this 30 minutes later it dropped from +212 to +179 lmfao.

[MMANick]

This really is a good card.

[Shagdogy]

Right when i said this 30 minutes later it dropped from +212 to +179 lmfao.

Damn so sharp you're moving lines without even betting them!

[Shagdogy]

Solid breakdown Turbo. It seems likely that this fight either ends with an early stoppage or goes for a close decision, possibly split since they are both likely to fade hard after R1. Seems like a good action matchup but not necessarily a great fight to bet.

If I'm trying to be a bit more selective with my plays, you're right, not a good fight to bet. I would need some medium dog money to play Lopez. I'll try to be disciplined and not play this one.

[Demonata]

Damn so sharp you're moving lines without even betting them!

Lmfao it pissed me off because I wanted to bet him anything over +200! Drops like 50.

[turbozed]

Lmfao it pissed me off because I wanted to bet him anything over +200! Drops like 50.

I bet $50 on Soukhamtath (my limit on openers) and it dropped instantly from +210 to +170. These opening lines aren't worth worrying about since it's impossible to get any money down.

Soukhamthath is coming in on 2.5 weeks notice and Sanders will probably wrestle his face off. I do favor Souk in a standup-only fight. Will probably be a no-play.

[Demonata]

I bet $50 on Soukhamtath (my limit on openers) and it dropped instantly from +210 to +170. These opening lines aren't worth worrying about since it's impossible to get any money down.

Soukhamthath is coming in on 2.5 weeks notice and Sanders will probably wrestle his face off. I do favor Souk in a standup-only fight. Will probably be a no-play.

I totally agree man. Good bet! I got to get my bets in soon since I'll be super drunk fight day and being an asshole lol

[Broxbomber]

I think Lopez will gas Morales out if Morales doesn't get an early finish. I also don't really like Morales's striking much other than his right leg kick and jab. I think his power punches (left hook and cross) are usually short; he pulls them back too soon/doesn't commit. For that reason I doubt his KO ability, so I think Lopez gassing him out and getting the finish in rd 2 or 3, or the close decision is most likely.

This sounds like a live betting situation. Do you think Morales will start stronger of the two and then Lopez can comeback and finish Morales in the later rounds?

On Bet365 you can bet ITD or Decision between rounds. Odds can be off big time at times. They adjust them so quickly with big variations.

[Broxbomber]

Is everyone discounting Ortega's striking? He looked much improved with the striking against Moicano (granted he was losing that fight) after Clay Guida managed to out strike him more than a year prior. Seems like he has made some gains in that area. Also, Moicano probably should've been rangier in that fight but he stayed in the pocket and allowed Ortega to have more success than he should've IMO. I think Cub will also give Ortega the type of fight that makes it exciting but also gives Ortega a good shot.

I feel like Ortega has suspect cardio and Cub can push the pace. Cub is the better of the two on the feet even though Ortega has been improving on the feet.

I am going to watch to see if Cub can keep this on the feet and take this into deep waters. Talent and technique goes out the window when you are gassed.

I’ll look to live bet Cub after the second round if Ortega is breathing heavy.

[Broxbomber]

Cub ITD at +500 looks good. It’s a 5 rounder. Ortega will brawl.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I feel like Ortega has suspect cardio and Cub can push the pace. Cub is the better of the two on the feet even though Ortega has been improving on the feet.

I am going to watch to see if Cub can keep this on the feet and take this into deep waters. Talent and technique goes out the window when you are gassed.

I’ll look to live bet Cub after the second round if Ortega is breathing heavy.

What makes you say that? I think both have solid cardio.

[turbozed]

This sounds like a live betting situation. Do you think Morales will start stronger of the two and then Lopez can comeback and finish Morales in the later rounds?

On Bet365 you can bet ITD or Decision between rounds. Odds can be off big time at times. They adjust them so quickly with big variations.

Probably the other way. Morales' cardio looked better in the Johns' fight. He was forced to defend for all 3 rounds but the same Morales in the 3rd round of the Perez fight might be finished there. Based on both of their interviews, I get the sense that Benito thinks Morales has a grappling advantage.

[Broxbomber]

What makes you say that? I think both have solid cardio.

I was just going off my memory but it was wrong. Ortega’s cardio looked fine in his last fight. I just scanned through it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was just going off my memory but it was wrong. Ortega’s cardio looked fine in his last fight. I just scanned through it.

Damn was really looking forward to debating this one.

[JollyRogerMMA]

I took Davi Ramos 2.5 Units -180 right when line opened on 5Dimes


Will have more plays. Wanting to play Morales am currently watching more tape.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Has anyone watched all of Ortega's last four UFC fights recently (Moicano, Guida, Brandao, Tavares)? If so, do you remember how you had them scored going into R3?

[firekillex]

Has anyone watched all of Ortega's last four UFC fights recently (Moicano, Guida, Brandao, Tavares)? If so, do you remember how you had them scored going into R3?

had ortega about to lose a decision to Moicano, probably going to lose a decision against Guida , Brandao about to win a decision and i kind of forget the tavares fight but im pretty sure that fight was tied going into the 3rd...

so basically i think ive had him losing round 1-2 in almost all his recent fights then he wins in the 3rd round, big reason why i think Cub will win this fight, Ortega has improved but all those fighters arent on Cubs level, i dont see him pulling off another late win here, i think Cub will pick him apart and possibly get a finish here

[Shagdogy]

Has anyone watched all of Ortega's last four UFC fights recently (Moicano, Guida, Brandao, Tavares)? If so, do you remember how you had them scored going into R3?

Had it 1-1 against Moicano but losing the 3rd rd until the finish. Had it 0-2 against Guida and on the way to 30-27 loss until the finish. Don't recall Brandao and Tavares but probably similar. Dude has pulled off the late win to save himself multiple times. Should change his nickname to "the magician."

[UncleChael]

Ortega ezzzz you're welcome

[Shagdogy]

I'm 0-2 on Moraes's two UFC fights, and I haven't fully capped this one yet, but I want to lean Aljo especially at plus money.

He has now fought two fights in a row where he is showing more aggressiveness and willing to be a bit more offensive with his game plan. I think a TD or some clinch control here or there could swing this fight to Aljo. Do we think Moraes is going to hurt him? Big reach advantage too.

[Demonata]

Ortega ezzzz you're welcome

A guy that has had to win on late finishes is never "easy". Also fighting cub is definitely never easy. I actually think doo hoi choi was the tougher fight for cub than this will be.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm 0-2 on Moraes's two UFC fights, and I haven't fully capped this one yet, but I want to lean Aljo especially at plus money.

He has now fought two fights in a row where he is showing more aggressiveness and willing to be a bit more offensive with his game plan. I think a TD or some clinch control here or there could swing this fight to Aljo. Do we think Moraes is going to hurt him? Big reach advantage too.

I don’t see Sterling getting consistent TDs here and Moraes has a huge advantage on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ortega ezzzz you're welcome

Care to provide your analysis here? I think you and I are on Ortega island.

[Hugo de Naranja]

had ortega about to lose a decision to Moicano, probably going to lose a decision against Guida , Brandao about to win a decision and i kind of forget the tavares fight but im pretty sure that fight was tied going into the 3rd...

so basically i think ive had him losing round 1-2 in almost all his recent fights then he wins in the 3rd round, big reason why i think Cub will win this fight, Ortega has improved but all those fighters arent on Cubs level, i dont see him pulling off another late win here, i think Cub will pick him apart and possibly get a finish here

Cub is definitely a big step up.

[UncleChael]

Care to provide your analysis here? I think you and I are on Ortega island.

Lol. I just don't see how Cub wins..

[JIBBBY]

^^^Brian Ortega is undefeated and never been rocked or finished in fights.. Most of his wins come late and by submission..

I doubt Cub is gonna drop him and finish him.. Ortega seems to be sporting a solid chin.. Cub by decision hedged Ortega by sub for me most likely..

I would have thought this Ortega Submission prop would be listed at better odds though ...

1035 Ortega wins by submission

+250

1011 Swanson wins by 5 round decision

+183

Going by the numbers -

Half of Ortega's wins have come by sub, and then mostly all his other fights have gone the distance..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

Cub Swanson nearly half of his fights have gone the distance so he's no stranger when taking fights to the final bell.. Cubs Swanson's last 4 fights have gone the distance..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cub-Swanson-11002

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA prelim write ups -





135 lbs.: Alejandro Perez vs. Iuri Alcantara
Alejandro Perez (18-6-1) took home gold on the inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” season, defeating teammate Jose Alberto Quinones at UFC 180. Though he suffered a 23-second submission loss his next time out, he’s since gone 3-0-1 with a “Performance of the Night” bonus and most recently defeated Andre Soukhamthath in Mexico City.
He stands three inches shorter than Iuri Alcantara (35-8) and will give up four inches each of arm and leg reach.
The enormously gifted “Marajo” continues to struggle with inconsistency. After a “Fight of the Night” with Jimmie Rivera and a torching of Brad Pickett, Alcantara survived countless punches to submit Luke Sanders, only to run headlong into a Brian Kelleher guillotine despite being a 4:1 favorite. His 28 professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
I’ve pretty much given up hope of Alcantara parlaying his incredible talent into an actual title run, but this is for sure a winnable fight. Perez has a similarly well-rounded skillset, but is exponentially less durable than “Marajo” and looks to be on the wrong end of an athleticism discrepancy.
Being hit-and-miss implies you land hits once in a while, and this is one of those times for the Brazilian. Alcantara picks up his first (technical) knockout stoppage in a while with an early thumping.
Prediction: Alcantara via first-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Davi Ramos
Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) didn’t have an ideal run on TUF 22, suffering a knockout loss to Artem Lobov after being deemed too boring to advance following his win in the round of 16. He went on to bet Abner Lloveras in his Octagon debut, then suffered a submission loss to Chas Skelly upon returning to Featherweight.
“Gritz” will give up to inches of reach to his Brazilian foe.
Davi Ramos (6-1) — the 2015 ADCC champion — stepped up in weight to face Sergio Moraes in his promotional debut this past March. Despite both fighters’ grappling pedigrees, the fight took place entirely on the feet, where Moraes won in a much closer contest than the trio of 30-27 cards would suggest.
He has submitted four professional opponents during his seven-year professional career.
Gruetzemacher should give us an idea of Ramos’ ultimate potential in the sport. His skillset begins and ends with decent wrestling — he’s not much of a striker and not much of a submission threat. The thing is, wrestling is the one area Ramos has to prove he can hold his own in. He’s literally world-class on the mat, but that’s not worth much if he can’t get it there, as demonstrated in the mauling Dave Rickels gave him.
Nevertheless, I’m going to put my faith in Ramos’ ceiling. Gruetzemacher is nowhere near the pressuring monster that “The Caveman” is and should find his way into a submission before long.
Prediction: Ramos via first-round submission

185 lbs.: Antonio Braga Neto vs. Trevin Giles (10-1)
Antonio Braga Neto (9-2) turned heads when he walked through countless punches from Maiquel Falcao to submit him, then proved it wasn’t a fluke by knee-barring Anthony Smith less than two minutes into his UFC debut. He went on to face Clint Hester in San Antonio, starting strong, but ultimately losing a questionable split decision.
This will be his first fight in more than three years.
Trevin Giles (10-1) made his name in some of the top feeder promotions, including Legacy and RFA, before joining UFC in July. He made the most of the opportunity with a brutal ground-and-pound knockout of James Bochnovic, his ninth professional finish.
He will give up three inches of height and reach to Braga Neto.
Braga Neto had the tools to be a legitimate threat in the division. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu is top-tier, he’s towering for the weight at 6’3,” and he showed some terrific durability against Falcao. At 30 years old, he still has time to develop into top Middleweight. But, three years is a long, long time, and Giles is a dangerous athlete. Braga Neto found less and less success against Hester as the fight went along and Hester notoriously wilts when things don’t go his way. Giles can hold his own in the wrestling and should sprawl-and-brawl his way to victory.
Prediction: Giles via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Alexis Davisvs. Liz Carmouche
Following an impressive submission of rival Sarah Kaufman, Alexis Davis (18-7) stepped away from the cage for more than 1.5 years to have a son. While Sara McMann spoiled her return, “Ally-Gator” got back in the win column in April with a decision over Cindy Dandois.
She has submitted eight opponents overall.
Liz Carmouche (11-5) — a member of the inaugural UFC women’s Bantamweight title fight — struggled out of the UFC gate with a 1-3 run. She has since regained consistency with decisions over Lauren Murphy and Katlyn Chookagian.
This will be just her second fight since April 2015 and her first since Nov. 2016.
“Girl-Rilla” looked solid against Murphy and Chookagian and it’s been four years since Davis pieced her up on the feet, but there’s just not a lot going Carmouche’s way. Davis remains the stronger technical striker and Carmouche, while destructive from top position, is inconsistent with her takedowns.
There’s also, you know, the huge layoff to consider.
If Carmouche can consistently drag Davis to the mat, she has the tools to win it. I just doubt she gets it there. Volume striking, low kicks and takedown defense wins another decision for Davis.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Luke Sanders vs. Andre Soukhamthath
Luke Sanders (11-1) got off to a damn hot start in UFC by dropping and submitting Venezuelan powerhouse Maximo Blanco on short notice, earning “Performance of the Night” in the process. His second fight saw him absolutely wreck Iuri Alcantara before getting caught in a leglock midway through the second round.
“Cool Hand Luke” is three inches shorter than Andre Soukhamthath (11-5) and will give up that much reach.
“The Asian Sensation” knocked out Kody Nordby with a savage knee to earn the CES Bantamweight title, then defended it with a revenge knockout of grappler Kin Moy five months later. He’s gone winless (0-2) in UFC itself; however, losing razor-thin split decisions to Albert Morales and Alejandro Perez.
He replaces the injured Bryan Caraway on short notice.
Soukhamthath is exponentially more talented than his UFC record would suggest, a powerful and dangerous striker capable of doing serious damage with all four limbs. His issue is lack of urgency — you can be the heaviest puncher in the world and it won’t mean squat if you don’t throw enough.
Sanders is both strong enough on the feet to stay out of harm’s way while doing damage and a dangerous enough wrestler to take Soukhamthath out of his comfort zone if he starts losing control of the striking. He cruises to a decision victory.
Prediction: Sanders via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Carls John de Tomas vs. Alex Perez
Carls John de Tomas (8-1) — one of UFC’s youngest competitors at age 21 — emerged as a “Golden Boy” of his native Philippines with a title victory and subsequent defense in the URCC promotion. In his UFC debut, he faced fellow young gun Naoki Inoue, who used top-shelf grappling to overwhelm de Tomas on his way to a trio of 30-26 scorecards.
This will be his first fight outside of Asia and just his second outside of the Philippines.
Fighting out of Team Oyama alongside the likes of Carla Esparza and Ian McCall, Alex Perez (18-4) reeled off four straight wins to earn a shot on Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” in August. Things went about as smoothly as they could for the former Tachi Palace champ, submitting Kevin Gray less than three minutes into the first round to earn a contract.
He has submitted five opponents and has (technical) knockout victories over another three.
de Tomas’ call-up was way too soon. He’s a competent wrestler, but remains lost on the feet and — even with that wrestling -- struggled to complete takedowns against Inoue. Though Perez is not the sort of phenom-level grappler Inoue is, he’s a capable striker who can more than hold his own in the wrestling.
Perez just has so much more experience and so many more weapons than de Tomas. Expect him to chew up the Filipino youngster in the striking before, in similar fashion to his “Contender Series” appearance, locking up a front choke from a sprawl.
Prediction: Perez via first-round submission

135 lbs.: Frankie Saenz vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Frankie Saenz (10-5) came out of nowhere to defeat Iuri Alcantara in his second UFC appearance, defying massive odds to do so. Though he defeated Sirwan Kakai his next time out, Saenz enters the cage this Saturday on a three-fight skid, earning “Fight of the Night” for his war with “Tanquinho” Mendes in January.
Saenz has stopped five opponents, though none since 2014.
Merab Dvalishvili (7-2) — the latest product of Serra-Longo — lost two of his first three professional fights before rattling off a five-fight streak that saw him earn the Ring of Combat Bantamweight title. He went on to appear on “Lookin’ for a Fight” in his first defense, where he knocked out the favored Raufeon Stots with a spinning back fist in just 15 seconds.
As an amateur, he scored two knockouts in a combined 49 seconds.
Watching tape, Dvalishvili reminds me of Georgia’s other contribution to UFC: Levan Makashvili. He’s a strong, versatile wrestler with legitimate power in his right hand and a striking style more concerned with unleashing as much of that power as possible than in setting anything up.
Saenz presents a similar skillset, albeit one far more proven. That said, Dvalishvili is a more capable wrestler than any of the three people Saenz beat in UFC and should be able to overpower him physically. Dvalishvili hands Saenz his fourth-straight loss through persistent top control.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision

[WolfTicketDealer]

Lol. I just don't see how Cub wins..

Cub could easily outstrike/outvolume him to a decision. In all honesty this fight is a coinflip and the line is set perfectly IMO. I'd lean towards Cub because A) I typically fade undefeated fighters getting their first real test and B) I think the most likely outcome is Cub by decision, followed by Ortega Sub.

[Shagdogy]

I don’t see Sterling getting consistent TDs here and Moraes has a huge advantage on the feet.

Just rewatched a little bit of Sterling and I think I was underestimating Moraes's striking advantage. It should be a decent edge for him.

I'm having a hard time getting a strong feel for this fight or really any fight on this card. Tough one for me right now.

[WolfTicketDealer]

I don’t see Sterling getting consistent TDs here and Moraes has a huge advantage on the feet.

He got taken down once or twice against Dodson and Sterling's a better grappler than Dodson. This is also a short turnaround for Moraes. I agree Moraes has a considerable advantage on the feet but this fight feels like a dog or pass to me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I had them 20-18 Moicano, 19-19 versus Guida, 20-18 Brandao, and 20-18 Tavares.

[JollyRogerMMA]

had ortega about to lose a decision to Moicano, probably going to lose a decision against Guida , Brandao about to win a decision and i kind of forget the tavares fight but im pretty sure that fight was tied going into the 3rd...

so basically i think ive had him losing round 1-2 in almost all his recent fights then he wins in the 3rd round, big reason why i think Cub will win this fight, Ortega has improved but all those fighters arent on Cubs level, i dont see him pulling off another late win here, i think Cub will pick him apart and possibly get a finish here

Ortega is Young and Game that can get it done in the 3rd and I believe 4th and 5th .... CUB is great but has injured hands which is not good if you are trying to win stirking battle against a young fighter who will come strong if losing ... I think the fight is even so no value on the line looking at other spots...... Over maybe a good play we will see like to watch weigh ins before O/U betting n case someone looks really bad.

[firekillex]

i think id cap cub at -180 here
weve seen ortega losing by points to fighters half the skill level of Cub, i think Cub is a high quality gatekeeper where only the ELITE fighters will beat him, he is super tough, very good striking and uses all his weapons while striking which is key he doesnt just rely on his hands, he has great cardio and is a proven vet... I think Ortega can possibly be a great fighter if he keeps improving at the rate he is, this is actually solid match making because Ortega has won all his fights 12-0 i believe? But i think his luck runs out here, Cub is just the better fighter in my eyes... Id hedge Ortega Submission because thats the only way i can see him winning this fight imo, i will be hedging personally small to gain back some loss if Cub does lose this


the only reason im slightly hesitant on Cub is because hes on his last fight on his contract and isnt in a good place with the UFC , but this could also light a fire under his ass so its tough to gauge.. but strictly fighting wise i believe hes better at this point in time