1. #1
    turbozed
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    UFC Fight Night 123: Swanson vs. Ortega | Saturday 12.09.2017 (Fresno, CA)



    Saturday 12.09.2017 at 10:00 PM ET





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  2. #2
    turbozed
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    Is it just me, or does it feel like Marlon Moraes is fighting every other event? Guy is busy
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  3. #3
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Is it just me, or does it feel like Marlon Moraes is fighting every other event? Guy is busy
    He just fought Dodson on November 11th. Before that he made his UFC Debut on June 3rd so he's been pretty active.
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  4. #4
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Is it just me, or does it feel like Marlon Moraes is fighting every other event? Guy is busy
    literally the exact thought i had... didnt even know he was fighting here
    thats a super tough fight, sterling a huge 135er with length this will be a close decision whoever wins


    liking cub swanson at these even odds though, cant see ortega pulling off a late win here, cub will pour it on him im thinking
    solid free card though... wonder if jason knight can rebound after that ass whoopin lamas gave him
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  5. #5
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    He just fought Dodson on November 11th. Before that he made his UFC Debut on June 3rd so he's been pretty active.
    Booked to fight again in less than a month? I guess he didn't take too much damage but it still was 15 mins of fighting. Wonder if fighting and cutting weight so close to the last time is going to have a significant effect on his performance.
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  6. #6
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Booked to fight again in less than a month? I guess he didn't take too much damage but it still was 15 mins of fighting. Wonder if fighting and cutting weight so close to the last time is going to have a significant effect on his performance.
    He did get Knocked Down by Dodson too.
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  7. #7
    firekillex
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    sterling not known for his KO power, more of a grappler/kicker
    sure he took that into account....

    i swear sterling was supposed to fight somebody else, so moraes must be stepping in for somebody??
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  8. #8
    Demonata
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    I am pumped for this card!

  9. #9
    strictlypaypal
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    Anyone rolling with ortega here?

  10. #10
    JIBBBY
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    No time to sit IDLE!! Back on that horse.. Loving the short turn around.. This is how it should be every weekend with a UFC event going down...




    UFC Fight Night 123 - Featherweight 5 rounds - SaveMart Center - Fresno, California - FS1
    Sat 12/9 1001 Brian Ortega -105 o2½ -220
    11:59PM 1002 Cub Swanson -115 u2½ +180

    I think you gotta go with Cub Swanson.. Maybe by decision also..

    Cub is just a quicker and better striker then Ortega.. More big fight experience also.. Cub probably wins by decision.. Ortega by sub is a hedge option but I don't think I'm gonna hedge out on this fight.. Going Cub straight at almost even odds..



    Cub
    Swanson
    vs
    Brian
    Ortega
    "T-City"

    UNITED STATES
    Country
    UNITED STATES

    25-7-0
    Record
    12-0-0, 1NC

    44%
    KO/TKO
    17%

    16%
    SUB
    50%

    40%
    DEC
    33%

    68 in
    Height
    68 in

    145 lbs
    Weight
    145 lbs

    70 in
    Reach
    69 in

    38 in
    Leg Reach
    39 in
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-04-17 at 02:04 PM.

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  11. #11
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    sterling not known for his KO power, more of a grappler/kicker
    sure he took that into account....

    i swear sterling was supposed to fight somebody else, so moraes must be stepping in for somebody??
    I think he was scheduled to fight Rani Yahya
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  12. #12
    Demonata
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    I'm still mad at cub swanson for beating doo hoi choi... But i think he wins here. More impressive resume, 7 fight win streak. Also probably wants to end on a high not before he tries another promotion which he says he's going to do.

  13. #13
    MMANick
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    Two huge plays for me:

    Cub

    Anders & Knight parlay

  14. #14
    firekillex
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    doo hoo choi is fighting jeremy stephens next....
    thats gonna be FIREWORKS
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  15. #15
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    doo hoo choi is fighting jeremy stephens next....
    thats gonna be FIREWORKS
    Yesssssssss. About time!

  16. #16
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by strictlypaypal View Post
    Anyone rolling with ortega here?
    I will be. I think Cub wins the early rounds on the feet before getting finished in the later rounds. Think the Ortega Live-Bet may be in play here.
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  17. #17
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I will be. I think Cub wins the early rounds on the feet before getting finished in the later rounds. Think the Ortega Live-Bet may be in play here.
    Ya think? Cub has that experience. I know that's Ortegas MO, but Cub isn't easy to finish at all.

  18. #18
    Beelzebubzy
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    Cub!!!!!!!
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  19. #19
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    Ya think? Cub has that experience. I know that's Ortegas MO, but Cub isn't easy to finish at all.
    Ehh, of Cub's losses, only 1 was via decision and he's been submitted 5/7 times. Cub isn't an early finisher and Ortega has been getting a lot of 3rd round finishes lately. I think the play is either Cub by decision or Ortega via sub.
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  20. #20
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I will be. I think Cub wins the early rounds on the feet before getting finished in the later rounds. Think the Ortega Live-Bet may be in play here.
    How many rounds is it?

  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Ehh, of Cub's losses, only 1 was via decision and he's been submitted 5/7 times. Cub isn't an early finisher and Ortega has been getting a lot of 3rd round finishes lately. I think the play is either Cub by decision or Ortega via sub.
    I’m with you on this one Wolf. I got in early on Ortega ITD (+247) and hedged with Swanson UD (+230). Also took a 1u shot on Ortega R3 and smaller shots on Ortega R4/R5.
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  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    How many rounds is it?
    5 rounds
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  23. #23
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    5 rounds
    Oh damn. Thanks

  24. #24
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    Ya think? Cub has that experience. I know that's Ortegas MO, but Cub isn't easy to finish at all.
    He's very hard to finish with strikes but he has been submitted several times both on the regional scene and in the UFC. Ortega might be the most dangerous submission grappler in the UFC right now.
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  25. #25
    JollyRogerMMA
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    Ortega is very live because of SUBs and with amount of wins in round 3 he is game will not quit and is always trying to win. CUB is a great fighter but injuries are racking up and the guy will tap. Tapped to choke across chin. Ortega can win this I think even line is right probably will not play the fight.

  26. #26
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    Ya think? Cub has that experience. I know that's Ortegas MO, but Cub isn't easy to finish at all.
    What is your opinion of Swanson's ground game?
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  27. #27
    turbozed
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    Here's my analysis of Morales/Lopez. If you guys have anything to add or any criticism of what's already there, definitely don't hold back.

    Benito Lopez is an 8-0 pro fighter with 2 amateur wins as well according to Tapology. But on Youtube, you can find at least another 5 amateur fights of his which all end with a 1st round TKO win. According to Benitez himself, he's been fighting since the age of 15. So apparently despite being only 23 years young, he's been in the game for at least 7 or 8 years. Despite having watched about 10 of his fights, I still can't get a good read on how good (or perhaps bad) his striking skills are.

    Lopez pretty much blasted his amateur competition (many of whom were making their amateur debut or only had 1 or 2 fights). These fights look pretty much the same. Lopez comes forward with punches and high kicks until his opponent falls down and he lands in mount and pummels them. He is very long and rangy for bantamweight, at 5'11 and with a 73" reach. He was able to squeak out a split decision win against his toughest opponent Steven Peterson in DWCS. During this fight we finally got to see more than a few seconds of his game.

    In the striking department, Lopez's style can be described as a more raw and unbalanced version of Alex Caceres. He's rangy but doesn't seem to know how to use this much to his advantage. Doesn't throw a jab very often except maybe to paw at his opponent while finding range for his kicking game or the infrequent and wound-up right straight. He's put out amateur opponents with head kicks but the ones thrown against Peterson appeared more slappy than crushing. One powerful technique that he was able to land over and over was the flying knee, which he seems to time better than his punches. He only needed to land 1 of these flying knees to turn the lights out against Rick "The Illness" James. He landed 5 of 5 against Peterson.

    Despite obviously having a knack for timing knees and some more unconventional strikes (like elbows in the clinch or a flurry of step-in uppercuts), Lopez's overall striking game has a few holes. His hands are usually dangerously low and he's often falling forwards into his opponents when he throws. He doesn't appear very comfortable with pocket punching and forward pressure from his opponent. Due to his lack of balance, it seemed likely that a competent wrestler would likely be able to ground him rather easily. To Lopez's credit, he was able to stop this from happening in Rds 1 and 3 of his fight with Peterson. In some of his fights, he's been content to eat leg kicks and bodykicks without checking or countering.

    Morales is less diverse but definitely much more balanced striker. He's got fast hands and can throw compact straight punches. This helped him control the striking exchanges in the 1st round against both Perez and Soukhamthath. Against Perez, he was able to time naked leg kicks and send a right hand at Perez's face. By the later rounds, however, Morales' striking discipline and sharpness drops off dramatically. In the 3rd round of the Perez fight he was drunk off fatigue and throwing off-balanced and weak punches. In the Soukhamtath fight, he couldn't do much but put up a high guard, resulting in Soukhamthath spamming about 10 strikes (left hooks and knees) to Morales' gut.

    Morales is hittable, and gets tagged with some pretty hard shots in all of his fights. Despite this, he was only finished by Almeida who really wasn't able to shut the lights off either. It was a well placed liver shot that crumpled Morales, but his body shut off before his chin gave out. Besides a perfectly placed flying knee or head kick, it doesn't look like Lopez has the type of power to stop Morales coming forward, much less KO him.

    Matching the two up, I think Morales would have a slight advantage in most exchanges. Unless Lopez intends on spamming flying knees from the get-go (a tactic which would more likely end up with him on his back rather than getting a KO), Lopez would need to do a lot of his funk striking moving backwards. He doesn't have the head movement or hand speed to stay in the pocket with Morales for very long. And a lot of his offense relies on naked kicks, which Morales has the chops to counter with punches or maybe score a takedown against.

    At least this is how it might look in the 1st round. In the later rounds, both fighters become much sloppier and lose a lot of power. It's hard to tell who will be most affected. If it's Morales that's getting the worse end of it, at the very least Morales can take it to the ground. Lopez is a good scrambler and, against poor competition, has found his way to get top position against his opponents, but Rd2 of the Peterson fight is a cause for concern. Though it looked like Morales had zero wrestling abilities in his last fight against Johns, Morales has decent grappling and most likely the advantage against Lopez in that department.

    Lot of question marks in this one, and even odds seems reasonable. If I had to pick, probably Morales.
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  28. #28
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Here's my analysis of Morales/Lopez. If you guys have anything to add or any criticism of what's already there, definitely don't hold back.

    Benito Lopez is an 8-0 pro fighter with 2 amateur wins as well according to Tapology. But on Youtube, you can find at least another 5 amateur fights of his which all end with a 1st round TKO win. According to Benitez himself, he's been fighting since the age of 15. So apparently despite being only 23 years young, he's been in the game for at least 7 or 8 years. Despite having watched about 10 of his fights, I still can't get a good read on how good (or perhaps bad) his striking skills are.

    Lopez pretty much blasted his amateur competition (many of whom were making their amateur debut or only had 1 or 2 fights). These fights look pretty much the same. Lopez comes forward with punches and high kicks until his opponent falls down and he lands in mount and pummels them. He is very long and rangy for bantamweight, at 5'11 and with a 73" reach. He was able to squeak out a split decision win against his toughest opponent Steven Peterson in DWCS. During this fight we finally got to see more than a few seconds of his game.

    In the striking department, Lopez's style can be described as a more raw and unbalanced version of Alex Caceres. He's rangy but doesn't seem to know how to use this much to his advantage. Doesn't throw a jab very often except maybe to paw at his opponent while finding range for his kicking game or the infrequent and wound-up right straight. He's put out amateur opponents with head kicks but the ones thrown against Peterson appeared more slappy than crushing. One powerful technique that he was able to land over and over was the flying knee, which he seems to time better than his punches. He only needed to land 1 of these flying knees to turn the lights out against Rick "The Illness" James. He landed 5 of 5 against Peterson.

    Despite obviously having a knack for timing knees and some more unconventional strikes (like elbows in the clinch or a flurry of step-in uppercuts), Lopez's overall striking game has a few holes. His hands are usually dangerously low and he's often falling forwards into his opponents when he throws. He doesn't appear very comfortable with pocket punching and forward pressure from his opponent. Due to his lack of balance, it seemed likely that a competent wrestler would likely be able to ground him rather easily. To Lopez's credit, he was able to stop this from happening in Rds 1 and 3 of his fight with Peterson. In some of his fights, he's been content to eat leg kicks and bodykicks without checking or countering.

    Morales is less diverse but definitely much more balanced striker. He's got fast hands and can throw compact straight punches. This helped him control the striking exchanges in the 1st round against both Perez and Soukhamthath. Against Perez, he was able to time naked leg kicks and send a right hand at Perez's face. By the later rounds, however, Morales' striking discipline and sharpness drops off dramatically. In the 3rd round of the Perez fight he was drunk off fatigue and throwing off-balanced and weak punches. In the Soukhamtath fight, he couldn't do much but put up a high guard, resulting in Soukhamthath spamming about 10 strikes (left hooks and knees) to Morales' gut.

    Morales is hittable, and gets tagged with some pretty hard shots in all of his fights. Despite this, he was only finished by Almeida who really wasn't able to shut the lights off either. It was a well placed liver shot that crumpled Morales, but his body shut off before his chin gave out. Besides a perfectly placed flying knee or head kick, it doesn't look like Lopez has the type of power to stop Morales coming forward, much less KO him.

    Matching the two up, I think Morales would have a slight advantage in most exchanges. Unless Lopez intends on spamming flying knees from the get-go (a tactic which would more likely end up with him on his back rather than getting a KO), Lopez would need to do a lot of his funk striking moving backwards. He doesn't have the head movement or hand speed to stay in the pocket with Morales for very long. And a lot of his offense relies on naked kicks, which Morales has the chops to counter with punches or maybe score a takedown against.

    At least this is how it might look in the 1st round. In the later rounds, both fighters become much sloppier and lose a lot of power. It's hard to tell who will be most affected. If it's Morales that's getting the worse end of it, at the very least Morales can take it to the ground. Lopez is a good scrambler and, against poor competition, has found his way to get top position against his opponents, but Rd2 of the Peterson fight is a cause for concern. Though it looked like Morales had zero wrestling abilities in his last fight against Johns, Morales has decent grappling and most likely the advantage against Lopez in that department.

    Lot of question marks in this one, and even odds seems reasonable. If I had to pick, probably Morales.
    Solid breakdown Turbo. It seems likely that this fight either ends with an early stoppage or goes for a close decision, possibly split since they are both likely to fade hard after R1. Seems like a good action matchup but not necessarily a great fight to bet.
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  29. #29
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Solid breakdown Turbo. It seems likely that this fight either ends with an early stoppage or goes for a close decision, possibly split since they are both likely to fade hard after R1. Seems like a good action matchup but not necessarily a great fight to bet.
    I was thinking the same exact thing in the shower just now. It's going to be a KO in the 1st or, if it goes further, it's going all the way because neither guy has finishing power or techniques. I'll be looking for the over/under lines and round props here. Or maybe a live bet after Rd1. But I'll stay away from the ML unless it moves a lot (doesn't seem like it would).
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  30. #30
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Here's my analysis of Morales/Lopez. If you guys have anything to add or any criticism of what's already there, definitely don't hold back.

    Benito Lopez is an 8-0 pro fighter with 2 amateur wins as well according to Tapology. But on Youtube, you can find at least another 5 amateur fights of his which all end with a 1st round TKO win. According to Benitez himself, he's been fighting since the age of 15. So apparently despite being only 23 years young, he's been in the game for at least 7 or 8 years. Despite having watched about 10 of his fights, I still can't get a good read on how good (or perhaps bad) his striking skills are.

    Lopez pretty much blasted his amateur competition (many of whom were making their amateur debut or only had 1 or 2 fights). These fights look pretty much the same. Lopez comes forward with punches and high kicks until his opponent falls down and he lands in mount and pummels them. He is very long and rangy for bantamweight, at 5'11 and with a 73" reach. He was able to squeak out a split decision win against his toughest opponent Steven Peterson in DWCS. During this fight we finally got to see more than a few seconds of his game.

    In the striking department, Lopez's style can be described as a more raw and unbalanced version of Alex Caceres. He's rangy but doesn't seem to know how to use this much to his advantage. Doesn't throw a jab very often except maybe to paw at his opponent while finding range for his kicking game or the infrequent and wound-up right straight. He's put out amateur opponents with head kicks but the ones thrown against Peterson appeared more slappy than crushing. One powerful technique that he was able to land over and over was the flying knee, which he seems to time better than his punches. He only needed to land 1 of these flying knees to turn the lights out against Rick "The Illness" James. He landed 5 of 5 against Peterson.

    Despite obviously having a knack for timing knees and some more unconventional strikes (like elbows in the clinch or a flurry of step-in uppercuts), Lopez's overall striking game has a few holes. His hands are usually dangerously low and he's often falling forwards into his opponents when he throws. He doesn't appear very comfortable with pocket punching and forward pressure from his opponent. Due to his lack of balance, it seemed likely that a competent wrestler would likely be able to ground him rather easily. To Lopez's credit, he was able to stop this from happening in Rds 1 and 3 of his fight with Peterson. In some of his fights, he's been content to eat leg kicks and bodykicks without checking or countering.

    Morales is less diverse but definitely much more balanced striker. He's got fast hands and can throw compact straight punches. This helped him control the striking exchanges in the 1st round against both Perez and Soukhamthath. Against Perez, he was able to time naked leg kicks and send a right hand at Perez's face. By the later rounds, however, Morales' striking discipline and sharpness drops off dramatically. In the 3rd round of the Perez fight he was drunk off fatigue and throwing off-balanced and weak punches. In the Soukhamtath fight, he couldn't do much but put up a high guard, resulting in Soukhamthath spamming about 10 strikes (left hooks and knees) to Morales' gut.

    Morales is hittable, and gets tagged with some pretty hard shots in all of his fights. Despite this, he was only finished by Almeida who really wasn't able to shut the lights off either. It was a well placed liver shot that crumpled Morales, but his body shut off before his chin gave out. Besides a perfectly placed flying knee or head kick, it doesn't look like Lopez has the type of power to stop Morales coming forward, much less KO him.

    Matching the two up, I think Morales would have a slight advantage in most exchanges. Unless Lopez intends on spamming flying knees from the get-go (a tactic which would more likely end up with him on his back rather than getting a KO), Lopez would need to do a lot of his funk striking moving backwards. He doesn't have the head movement or hand speed to stay in the pocket with Morales for very long. And a lot of his offense relies on naked kicks, which Morales has the chops to counter with punches or maybe score a takedown against.

    At least this is how it might look in the 1st round. In the later rounds, both fighters become much sloppier and lose a lot of power. It's hard to tell who will be most affected. If it's Morales that's getting the worse end of it, at the very least Morales can take it to the ground. Lopez is a good scrambler and, against poor competition, has found his way to get top position against his opponents, but Rd2 of the Peterson fight is a cause for concern. Though it looked like Morales had zero wrestling abilities in his last fight against Johns, Morales has decent grappling and most likely the advantage against Lopez in that department.

    Lot of question marks in this one, and even odds seems reasonable. If I had to pick, probably Morales.
    I think Lopez will gas Morales out if Morales doesn't get an early finish. I also don't really like Morales's striking much other than his right leg kick and jab. I think his power punches (left hook and cross) are usually short; he pulls them back too soon/doesn't commit. For that reason I doubt his KO ability, so I think Lopez gassing him out and getting the finish in rd 2 or 3, or the close decision is most likely.

  31. #31
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    He's very hard to finish with strikes but he has been submitted several times both on the regional scene and in the UFC. Ortega might be the most dangerous submission grappler in the UFC right now.
    I know Cub has been Subbed, I just can't see Ortega getting in a position to do so. I think Cub likely takes a decision, but Ortega ITD is the second most likely outcome. You're hot right now, Hugo. Keep it up!

  32. #32
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    I know Cub has been Subbed, I just can't see Ortega getting in a position to do so. I think Cub likely takes a decision, but Ortega ITD is the second most likely outcome. You're hot right now, Hugo. Keep it up!
    Is everyone discounting Ortega's striking? He looked much improved with the striking against Moicano (granted he was losing that fight) after Clay Guida managed to out strike him more than a year prior. Seems like he has made some gains in that area. Also, Moicano probably should've been rangier in that fight but he stayed in the pocket and allowed Ortega to have more success than he should've IMO. I think Cub will also give Ortega the type of fight that makes it exciting but also gives Ortega a good shot.

  33. #33
    MMANick
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    I'm not discounting his striking, I just give Cub the edge there.

  34. #34
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    I'm not discounting his striking, I just give Cub the edge there.
    I give Cub the edge in the standup as well.
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  35. #35
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I give Cub the edge in the standup as well.
    What was your impression of Detroit & LCA?

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