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UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (January 02, 2016)
Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit (for welterweight title)
Andrei Arlovski vs. Stipe Miocic
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Kyle Noke
Lorenz Larkin vs. Albert Tumenov
Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Masanori Kanehara vs. Michael McDonald
Nina Ansaroff vs. Justine Kish
Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman
Tony Sims vs. Abel Trujillo
UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
Joseph Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier
Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka
Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott
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This is a stacked main card.. Arlovski back in the cage against Stipe.. Oh shiiiit!!!
Does AA keep the string of wins going? Stipe is no joke.. I may just go with OG pitbull at +211.. He has been on a strong roll now for 10 fights... Won his last 6... Some of those wins are by cans though like Big Foot Silva.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Andrei-Arlovski-270
Stipe is a bit of beast in the HW division though, just look at his record - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stipe-Miocic-39537
This will be AA toughest fight in years.. Let's see if he steps up? They size up well.
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-14-15 at 08:40 PM.
Joseph Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier on the fightpass is nuts...
The dog at +190 could bark in this one.. Dustin Poirer is legit and has a shot in this match up me tinks... He's been rock solid since jumping the weight class and after getting lit up by McGregor. This event is in Vegas and not over seas either...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dustin-Poirier-50529
UFC 195 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV Sat 1/2 1201 Dustin Poirier +190 o1½ -140 11:00PM 1202 Joe Duffy -230 u1½ +120
A potential hedge could be Duffy ITD depending on those odds.. He's only gone to decision once in 15 pro fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joseph-Duffy-17052
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-15-15 at 01:37 AM.
100% wow....Originally Posted by the_locksmith
I'm liking Condit in this fight at +125 on the straight bet...
I'm also thinking Carlos Condit by decision over the ruthless one.. He'll have the length and height advantage, he's always fast paced, and his movement is very good to win rounds on points.
Carlos Condit is almost impossible to knock out and Ruthless Robbie is tough as nails as well.. Chalk this one up fellas..
$50.00 $157.50 Pending 1/2/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1007 Condit wins by 5 round decision +315* vs Not Condit by 5 round decision
Lawler really impressed me in his last fight....guy appeared to have .01% left in the gas tank then flipped to the reserve that NOBODY knew he had lol.....just very very impressive .....I think Condit has more skills -but both will have their hearts 100% invested ---ALL IN----insane!
I'm pretty sure I said I will never bet against Condit or Lawler again. Good luck, fellas!
Lorenz Larkin might have a shot in this fight against the skilled Russian Tumenov. Larkin has looked impressive in recent fights.. He's flipped the switch and finally is taking the sport seriously..
Ever since losing to Derrick Brunson, Larkin has put in the work, lost weight and is now fighting to the best of his abilities anyways..
Will his abilities be good enough to beat this tough Russian IDK? I like his chances at 2-1 odds.. Larkin sports the granite chin and is hard to finish so I don't think Turminov ko's him anyways.
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lorenz-Larkin-51345
New and improved Larkin -
The fat Larkin before -
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-20-15 at 08:02 PM.
Larkin is going to sleep in the first round, bank on that. Tumenov straight and by Ko, are the plays to make.
Dustin by ko or Decision, Duffys only path of victory is a sub, so would be smart to hedge duffy by sub small, dustin should be a small favorite, by -120, stand-up is close, but dustin has the advantage, duffy has the advantage on the ground but dustin is hard to sub.
Condit can win any way he wants, ko, sub or desision, line should be condit -170, more ways to win, lawler isnt finishing condit, and he cant win a decision against condit.
Brian Ortega is gonna finish inside the distance, most likely brando with get over aggresive early and get ko'd or subbed in the 1st, but ortego would also win a decision if brando survives, as brando slows down after the 1st round, outside of a very slim punchers chance in the first, brando has no path to victory.
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 12-20-15 at 09:19 PM.
^^ Agree with Condit being the play Joshster.. +110 is a gift... He's too active and elusive for Ruthless Robbie to deal with.. Condit by decision is most likely the outcome.. Locked and loaded.. No hedge on this one..
$50.00 $157.50 Pending 1/2/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1007 Condit wins by 5 round decision +315* vs Not Condit by 5 round decision
Condit was +125 last week.. Fell asleep on it.... Hit it at +110...
$141.20 $155.30 Pending 1/2/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Carlos Condit +110* vs Robbie Lawler
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-21-15 at 10:28 AM.
I'm starting to think the play might just be "fight going the distance" prop.. Judges love to hand out robberies that go in favor of Ruthless Robbie. Condit has lost fights by decision in recent years also.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Carlos-Condit-6765
I also still remember clearly when the judges gave Robbie Lawler that split decision win in that robbery against Johny Hendricks.. Hmmmm? We could see another robbery decision in this one are my concerns..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Lawler-2245
Condit has never been knocked out or stopped by punches and I don't see Robbie Lawler being the first to stop Condit with a punch.. If Rory Mac couldn't finish Ruthless Robbie then I doubt Condit can.. Condit is not a big power striker.. Both are tough and durable and hard to finish..
1003 Condit / Lawler goes 5 round distance -125
Dont sleep on tumenov vs larkin
Heavy leather will be thrown this fight
But he didnt loose standing! He was taken down in every round against both GSP and Hendricks. As long as fight is standing he should win a decision. But who knows, maybe lawler look to exploit condits weak takedown defence, he probably could.
if yall switch your bets to lawler, just give up gambling. Lmao lawler can't ko or sub condit and he can't win a decision, this isn't hard, men...plus odds on the clear favorite to win, don't over think it, and talk yourselves off this money. Lawler will not wrestle condit, if he does, he gets submitted.
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 12-22-15 at 02:18 AM.
GSP and Hendricks didnt get submitted so hes not charleis oliveira exactly. Bunch of other people has avoided getting submitted, on the top of my head i can remember, Kampmann, Macdonald, obviously GSP and Hendricks.. These are facts you cant deny
Before he was injured, he was also laying on his back in the Tyrone Woodley fight no?
But he did sweep DHK, so who am i kidding...hes going to submit Lawler probably yes...ok. i agree.
This fight isnt goin2 the ground. Unless somebody gets knocked down. Neither guy gonna be shootin for doubles. They not the type to put their face on another mans junk. Gonna b a standup war unless Carlos runs around the cage like a btch again. That diaz fight was so frustrating to watch as it shoulda been an action fight. At least i hit the over
Sure, i meant, IF lawler tried to be a smartass taking down Condit, he could easily get submitted. So Josh has a good point; Lawler would probably not KO Condit, def not submitting. And he probably is going to loose the volume/output battle as Condit throw kicks and punches continuously. I mean lawler could squeek out a split dec, but no way an unanimous dec.
u guys are crazy if u think lawler cant ko condit. lawler can ko everyone in that division and alot of guys in higher weight classes. not to mention condit is hittable and is usually willing to trade. this is a close fight as odds suggest. tho im sure someone will say NBK is 3-1 fav or some stupid sht like that
Lawler isn't gonna take down Condit, it's not his style and it's not in his DNA.. Dude is a brawler much like a Nick Diaz so I don't think we need to worry about a Condit Submission happening in this one anyways.. Does Robbie have a top G&P game anyways? I can't ever remember seeing him ground and pounding anyone in the past...
The fight stays standing and I expect to see the same Condit that we saw against Nick Diaz.. Dancing around the cage, fast footwork, stick and move, in an out, box and pepper Lawler up to a decision... Lawler will try to brawl and might even touch up Condit a bit.. I think most of us are underestimating Ruthless Robbie Lawler, dude is the champ and a very solid fighter these days.. He's beat the best in the division.. Still leaning Condit by decision though..
Arlovski said he didn't train or prepare properly for Frank Mir because he thought Frank Mir was an easy fight.
Is Arlovski being truthful, he didn't perform well because he didn't train hard enough for Frank mir.
Or is Arlovski's age catching up to him?
2 Team Parlay
Pending 1/2/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1055 Condit / Lawler starts round 3 -285* vs Fight won’t start round 3
Pending 1/2/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -265* vs Larkin / Tumenov goes 3 round distance
that has to be something made up somewhere. If it is true Arlovski is dumber than i originally thought.
Very solid parlay.. I like.. Should cash...
I'm kinda liking Diego Brandao at +200 right about now. Diego is on a 2 fight win streak and both by early KO's since losing to McGregor and Dustin Poirier.. Both respectable losses and before that Diego rattled off 3 wins.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Diego-Brandao-25097
Brian Ortega seems like a tough guy but still he is untested in the big leagues even though he is undefeated at 9-0.. Brian really only has 1 win in the UFC so far and against Thiago Tavarez whom he caught early and whom doesn't have a great chin.. That was Brian Ortega's first KO win as an MMA fighter.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310
This will be Ortega's toughest fight to date anyways...
UFC 195 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV Sat 1/2 1401 Brian Ortega -230 o1½ -160 10:00PM 1402 Diego Brandao +190 u1½ +140
This fight probably doesn't go to decision and I'm thinking Diego has a chance at a KO or Submission win..
Ortega's ko win over Tavarez.. Tavarez looked like crap in this fight more then Ortega looked good IMO... Ortega will have the slight reach advantage against Diego and that does have me a bit worried but Diego is tough and well rounded... This fight should end in a KO one way or the other..
Ortega does remind me a little bit like Nick Diaz but not as good.. Ortega really doesn't have one punch KO power and that's good for Diego if they get to swinging..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-22-15 at 02:55 PM.
So now Condit is elusive and now Diego is tough Jibbs? You have been hitting those winecoolers hard lately haven't you?
Not fruity wine coolers pal, fine vino that you probably can't afford or don't have an acquired taste for yet..
Carlos Condit was always elusive, did you not see him fight Nick Diaz? Boxing clinic which he won by decision.. Diego also comes out swinging and most would label that as being tough.. He's racking up KO's and looking good while doing it.. I suggest you watch his last 2 fights..
These are the facts and they are undisputed...
If you're on Ortega and Ruthless Robbie then I wish you good luck Miri.. Just for the record I've been rock solid picking the prelim fights.. Check the event threads.. The big name fights I've absolutely struggled with this month like no other month this year.. It happens but not very often in my betting world...
That Super bowl weekend of MMA kicked my arse big time and even took all my bet points.. Still playing catch up.. Luckily I went 5-0 in the prick contest and got reloaded for 900 FP..Can't hold a good man down...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-23-15 at 01:34 AM.
This is a step down from Ortegas last fight. That ground game of Ortega, man o man. Huge talent. Hes striking is a bit unpolished, but hes got that fighter mentality you want to see in a fighter. Hes coming forward, hes aggressive, hes got slick and fast paced transitions on the ground and hes got the cardio to breakdown diego in the later rounds. This means basically that Diegos got a shot in the first round and thats probably it. After that its all Ortega.I'm kinda liking Diego Brandao at +200 right about now. Diego is on a 2 fight win streak and both by early KO's since losing to McGregor and Dustin Poirier.. Both respectable losses and before that Diego rattled off 3 wins.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Diego-Brandao-25097
Brian Ortega seems like a tough guy but still he is untested in the big leagues even though he is undefeated at 9-0.. Brian really only has 1 win in the UFC so far and against Thiago Tavarez whom he caught early and whom doesn't have a great chin.. That was Brian Ortega's first KO win as an MMA fighter.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310
This will be Ortega's toughest fight to date anyways...
UFC 195 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV Sat 1/2 1401 Brian Ortega -230 o1½ -160 10:00PM 1402 Diego Brandao +190 u1½ +140
This fight probably doesn't go to decision and I'm thinking Diego has a chance at a KO or Submission win..
Condit is hittable as penetrate, that's his biggest liabilty, always has been. He's tough, but he got dropped like a sack of potatoes against Ellenburger, and would probably have been finished if he didnt succed in landing a knee to the Burger midsection at the same time. And he got hurt several times against Woodley by crosses.Not fruity wine coolers pal, fine vino that you probably can't afford or don't have an acquired taste for yet..
Carlos Condit was always elusive, did you not see him fight Nick Diaz? Boxing clinic which he won by decision.. Diego also comes out swinging and most would label that as being tough.. He's racking up KO's and looking good while doing it.. I suggest you watch his last 2 fights..
These are the facts and they are undisputed...
If you're on Ortega and Ruthless Robbie then I wish you good luck Miri.. Just for the record I've have been rock solid picking the prelim fights.. Check the event threads.. The big name fights I've absolutely struggled with this month like no other month this year.. It happens but not very often in my betting world...
That Super bowl weekend of MMA kicked my arse big time and even took all my bet points.. Still playing catch up.. Luckily I went 5-0 in the prick contest and got reloaded for 900 FP..
Diego is a known quitter and gasser, has been from the start of his career. Ortega is tough as nails.
Not discounting a bet on either, mind you. I'm on Condit at the moment, but not sure what I will do with that. Diego has a bad style matchup here, if he doesn't get the early finish though, on Ortega -150. So who do you like for the prelims ?
^^BJ agreed with Ortega's ground game but Diego isn't that shabby on the ground himself. It's rarely tested as he's only been submitted 1 time in 30 pro fights and that was back in 2007.. Diego is a 2nd degreed BJJ black belt himself.. Rank Second Degree Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu[2]
I think the only way to beat Diego is by KO.. Ortega isn't a big puncher period.. Diego will test his chin early on and I agree round one is probably Diego's best chance for a KO win.. He could begin to gas, get out worked after that then stopped late....
That's why I like the fight won't go the distance or it ends by KO one way or the other.. Those props aren't out yet. So just thinking at +200 Diego has a chance.. I haven't bet this fight yet but thinking hard about it.. That's why I posted on it, looking for opinions from you guys..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 12-22-15 at 04:13 PM.
7 first props are out now. I took a stab on not going the distance prop.^^BJ agreed with Ortega's ground game but Diego isn't that shabby on the ground himself. It's rarely tested as he's only been submitted 1 time in 30 pro fights and that was back in 2007.. Diego is a 2nd degreed BJJ black belt himself.. Rank Second Degree Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu[2]
I think the only way to beat Diego is by KO.. Ortega isn't a big puncher period.. Diego will test his chin early on and I agree round one is probably Diego's best chance for a KO win.. He could begin to gas, get out worked after that then stopped late....
That's why I like the fight won't go the distance or it ends by KO one way or the other.. Those props aren't out yet. So just thinking at +200 Diego has a chance.. I haven't bet this fight yet but thinking hard about it.. That's why I posted on it, looking for opinions from you guys..
PaperTrail07 gave THE_LOCKSMITH 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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