[agendaman]

JIBBY don't be too hard on yourself man you will get hot again yes I forgot to mention uncle chael a top capper p,s, do you think McGregor can beat Frankie edgar

[TPowell]

Anybody on Trujillo? I think he's the better fighter and if his strong wrestling background would come through once he could easily dominate this fight.

[JIBBBY]

Moving on here is a fight that is kinda interesting.. I'm still working on it.. I'm still trying to decide if this Asian dog will bark or do I apply the Asian fade theory here? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Masanori-Kanehara-13767

I'm leaning Asian fade but I do remember the fight against Rani Yahya where he got robbed and looked pretty good.. Everyone looks good against Yahya standing though... He beat Bruce Lee Roy in a decision..

Michael McDonald was hyped and killing it until he stepped up to stiffer comp in Uriah Faber and Renan Barao where he got sub'd out in both.. Derailed his stellar hype..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-McDonald-30297 He also got injured and hasn't fought in 2 years..

Sat 1/2		1501 Masanori Kanehara		+425	o1½ -160
9:30PM		1502 Michael McDonald		-550	u1½ +140

Bleacher report write up that kinda confirms what I was thinking -

Michael McDonald was one of the hottest names at 135 pounds. An eight-fight winning streak across Tachi Palace Fights, WEC and the UFC earned him a crack at the then-interim bantamweight title. Renan Barao would slap him back down in 2013, and Urijah Faber would do the same 10 months later, and he hasn't been seen since.
Two years removed from that loss and with a number of injuries in the rearview mirror, he looks to right the ship by taking on an interesting foe, Japanese standout Masanori Kanehara. He is best known for either his 2009 win over Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto or his 2014 disqualification loss to Toshiaki Kitada for throwing his opponent out of the ring, but regardless, he is a compelling talent who deserves a straight fight in the cage following a controversial split-decision loss to Rani Yahya.
Both men have a lot riding on this fight, with McDonald needing to prove he remains a Top 10 name and Kanehara looking to secure a path to the top of the division. This one is tough to call, but when in doubt, pick the guy who has fought more than zero times in the last two years.

Prediction: Masanori Kanehara def. Michael McDonald by unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

^^ I think I like the Michael MacDonald by KO prop when it comes out for a hedge if I do decide to try the Kanehara straight..

[JIBBBY]

Anybody on Trujillo? I think he's the better fighter and if his strong wrestling background would come through once he could easily dominate this fight.

Sat 1/2		1801 Tony Sims		+110	o1½ -125
8:00PM		1802 Abel Trujillo		-130	u1½ +105

I haven't got to capping this fight completely yet and this fight is tricky to pick just going off memory.. Tony Sims can knock anyone out with his stellar boxing and Abel Trujillo really doesn't get knocked out period standing..Abel certainly has a better wrestling base.. I'm leaning Tony Sims though just because he can KO anyone and is getting better with TD defense and getting back up off his back... Abel will be the more physically strong fighter though for sure if they wrestle up or clinch up....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Sims-30021

Bleacher report short write up -

Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims: Abel Trujillo is an interesting prospect because of his pure power, but his awful fight IQ has made it unclear as to whether he can succeed in the UFC. Already riding back-to-back losses, if he can't get back into the win column against the unheralded Tony Sims, he might also be headed to the indies.

The props out so far -

Tony Sims vs Abel Trujillo - Lightweight 3 rounds - UFC 195 propositions
Sat 1/2		1803 Sims / Trujillo goes 3 round distance		+180
8:00PM		1804 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		-260
Sat 1/2		1805 Sims wins inside distance		+220
8:00PM		1806 Not Sims inside distance		-300
Sat 1/2		1807 Sims wins by 3 round decision		+340
8:00PM		1808 Not Sims by 3 round decision		-510
Sat 1/2		1809 Trujillo wins inside distance		+110
8:00PM		1810 Not Trujillo inside distance		-150
Sat 1/2		1811 Trujillo wins by 3 round decision		+520
8:00PM		1812 Not Trujillo by 3 round decision		-960
Sat 1/2		1813 Sims / Trujillo draw		+17500
8:00PM		1814 Fight not a draw		-52500

Abel does have some pop



We all remember Tony Simms last fight right?

[UncleChael]

JIBBY don't be too hard on yourself man you will get hot again yes I forgot to mention uncle chael a top capper p,s, do you think McGregor can beat Frankie edgar

Thank you, sir. This is a lifestyle.

[TPowell]

one would think that Abel will do whatever it takes to get a win in this one to keep his job. That would include grappling IMO

[JoshKnows46]

Make yourself known to the name Albert "Einstein" Turmenov, soon to be top 5 in the division, will climb the ranks quickly, at the age of 23, future champion in the division.

[JIBBBY]

^^ You could be right about Albert Tumenov as he did look very good in KO'ing Alan Jouban in his last fight Joshster.. It seems like Tumenov main weakness is in his ground game and he also loses a bit of steam after round 1 if he doesn't get the ko....

The Russian really got exposed in round 2 on the ground against Alcantara and then faded and got beat standing in round 3. This was his UFC debut loss a year and a half ago. He lost to the hard chin and taller Alcantara by decision in that fight and got busted up on the ground anyways.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Albert-Tumenov-60198

This is that fight if you want to watch it.. http://mmaversus.com/2014/02/16/ilde...deo-ufc-fn-36/

I already placed on Larkin straight earlier this week and am now having some regrets. I'm starting to think the only way to beat this Russian is on the ground.. Larkin is not a ground based fighter by nature but he is tough standing, has a good chin and can bomb away especially since rededicating himself to the sport recently.. Larkin should be stronger in the later rounds if it lasts are my thoughts..

Current odds Larkin +185

$200.00

$340.00

Pending

1/2/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Lorenz Larkin +170* vs Albert Tumenov

I'm gonna take the "first round finish Tumenov" prop play as a hedge. Not really excited about either of these bets right about now but these are my plays..

$100.00

$250.00

Pending

1/2/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Tumenov wins in round 1 +250* vs Any other result

[mirinquads]

Jibby it's like you insist on getting the worst odds every time

[JIBBBY]

Jibby it's like you insist on getting the worst odds every time

Not every time but on Larkin this time around I jumped the gun for sure..

It's a damn shame sportsbooks don't allow you to drop bets once in a while.. Wouldn't that be cool if they allowed you even one free drop bet a month .. I'd drop my Larkin bet now if they did...

I guess I could bet on Tumenov straight now and pay the juice and odds variation but I don't do that.. I stick to my guns as more often then not my initial thought picks work out for the best.. Let's do this LARKIN!!

Merry Christmas Miri..

[mirinquads]

Well, what I'm saying is that's a part of your game you need to look at, as i consistently see you get way worse lines than you should. Your handicapping skills, or at least ability to spot value has increased exponentially - But your lineshopping game is still terrible.. I'd wager you'd have made 10-20% more profit if you'd have gotten the lines I got on many of the same bets!

Merry Xxxxmas, Jibbbrz.

[bjpenn85]

^^ You could be right about Albert Tumenov as he did look very good in KO'ing Alan Jouban in his last fight Joshster.. It seems like Tumenov main weakness is in his ground game and he also loses a bit of steam after round 1 if he doesn't get the ko....

The Russian really got exposed in round 2 on the ground against Alcantara and then faded and got beat standing in round 3. This was his UFC debut loss a year and a half ago. He lost to the hard chin and taller Alcantara by decision in that fight and got busted up on the ground anyways.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Albert-Tumenov-60198

This is that fight if you want to watch it.. http://mmaversus.com/2014/02/16/ilde...deo-ufc-fn-36/

I already placed on Larkin straight earlier this week and am now having some regrets. I'm starting to think the only way to beat this Russian is on the ground.. Larkin is not a ground based fighter by nature but he is tough standing, has a good chin and can bomb away especially since rededicating himself to the sport recently.. Larkin should be stronger in the later rounds if it lasts are my thoughts..

Current odds Larkin +185

$200.00

$340.00

Pending

1/2/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Lorenz Larkin +170* vs Albert Tumenov

I'm gonna take the "first round finish Tumenov" prop play as a hedge. Not really excited about either of these bets right about now but these are my plays..

$100.00

$250.00

Pending

1/2/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Tumenov wins in round 1 +250* vs Any other result

IMO its not ideal to use such a small sample size to cap a fight. First fight in the UFC is also the worst ufc fight to pick as a representative. + As your said, its a different style matchup as well, Larkin is a standup fighter. Accordring to fight metric, Tumenovs takedown defence is 80% and most fighter north of 75% which i have placed bets on earlier hasnt get taken down as far as i can remeber.80% is very impressive, maybe topo 5 in the ufc, although i would say, his cage time is very small.

Im on Tumenov as well!



2

[JoshKnows46]

Not every time but on Larkin this time around I jumped the gun for sure..

It's a damn shame sportsbooks don't allow you to drop bets once in a while.. Wouldn't that be cool if they allowed you even one free drop bet a month .. I'd drop my Larkin bet now if they did...

I guess I could bet on Tumenov straight now and pay the juice and odds variation but I don't do that.. I stick to my guns as more often then not my initial thought picks work out for the best.. Let's do this LARKIN!!

Merry Christmas Miri..

You should buy your bet back plus some, no point losing 200 dollars you know your gonna lose... you don't lose that bet till the fight starts, then and only then can you not do something about, there is no path to victory for larkin, and theres no pride in losing money, you knew you'd lose... Turmenov gassing out in a tough grappling match, when most of his matchs are stand-up, alcantra taking him to a place he isnt accustom to fighting at, sweeps moving a body around, in his first fight in the ufc, come on now, your really gonna base your bet off of that?!?, alcantra took a beating and kept on ticking in that match, you can't honesty believe larkin has better cardio then turmenov? you can't believe larkin could take turmenov down? larkin has a solid chin, only being ko'd once, so i seriously doubt it will be a first round ko, possible, but i see turmenov winning by ko late 2nd, early 3rd, with larkin being the one slowing down, drop 25 each on the 2nd and 3rd round ko props, to cover that first round ko bet, and bet 800 on turmenov to cover the larkin 200 straight bet, also secures you a profit 300-400 when turmenov ko's him, and it covers your 150 in ko prop bets if turmenov takes the decision instead of the ko, would be my advice.....also for 2nd and 3rd round turmenov ko, you get +450, and +850, its worth the 25 bucks a piece.

[JIBBBY]

If you back up on Tumenov you are toast, Larkin has been fighting forward since moving to 170.... Lorenz is perfect since moving down to 170.. He's using leg kicks now and mixing up striking well just like Tumenov does.. Lorenz is 5'11 and sizes up well... This is gonna be a good fight..

I'm sticking with my guns fellas.. Lorenz could even win this by decision perhaps.. Tumenov is most dangerous in the 1st round..

I did watch Lorenz last two fights since moving down to 170 and he really blasted through John Howard and Santiago Ponz.. Best I've ever seen him fight..

I couldn't find his fight with Santiago Ponz link that I could post up here, but I did find his after fight replay highlights and his interview.. Larkin seems pretty damn confident.. He's got a shot in this fight fellas.. From what I saw he seems really strong and powerful at this new 170 weight..

Take a look at this link vid, it's about 30 seconds long.. You guys are also forgetting Lorenz Larkin bullied and beat Robbie Lawler standing a few years ago..

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/06/ufc-fight-night-70-lorenz-larkin-vs-santiago-ponzinibbio-video-highlights

[JIBBBY]

Larkin is going to sleep in the first round, bank on that. Tumenov straight and by Ko, are the plays to make.

-Josh it appears you are changing your mind a bit as well.. Now ya think Larkin get's stopped in round 2 or 3.. It's ok to change your mind after further capping.. I'm guilty of it at times too.. It appears you are giving Larkin a bit more of a chance now after reading your above post..

-BJPenn I do alot of capping that I don't post on this forum so yes I expand my capping range more then I show in just a few posts on SBR. Come on man.. I just try to present a nice presentation post with substance, gifs, records and trends to go along with a quick opinion write up.. Believe me I can type pages on each fighter if I really wanted too..

[JoshKnows46]

-Josh it appears you are changing your mind a bit as well.. Now ya think Larkin get's stopped in round 2 or 3.. It's ok to change your mind after further capping.. I'm guilty of it at times too.. It appears you are giving Larkin a bit more of a chance now after reading your above post..

-BJPenn I do alot of capping that I don't post on this forum so yes I expand my capping range more then I show in just a few posts on SBR. Come on man.. I just try to present a nice presentation post with substance, gifs, records and trends to go along with a quick opinion write up.. Believe me I can type pages on each fighter if I really wanted too..

My bets the same, i never said bet 1st round ko, i said prediction, then i said bet turmenov by ko and straight are the plays to make, the round he finished him changed, prediction changed, bet didnt change at all, I was never going to bet a rounds bet, never said I was, still not, i bet the ko straight, because turmenov could ko him in one, the more I've watched tape of both guys, I see it much more likely it happens the longer the fight goes on, u can read my thread to find out why, again, though he has the power to ko him in the first, you should have bet the ko straight, as I did, as soon as it came out.
By the way my bets change sometimes multiple times while I'm watching tape, picturing the fight in my head, if you see enough senerios for both sides winning, guess what jibby, you shouldn't be betting that fight, this is the main thing you should learn, learn when to not bet on either side. I never ever saw a way for larkin to win this fight, I can see turmenov winning by ko or decision, ko being the higher probability for me, later in the fight, higher that probability gets, but I could also see a desision which is less probable, happens fewer timesx I could also see a 1st round ko that I'd less probable, so as you can see I have a clear set in stone in my mind winner based on what my eyes see, and I have only a high probability on the outcome, which is why I made the outcome only 1/6th the size of my straight play on the winner, I'm not mystic mike like mcgregor, I don't always get the round right lol

[JoshKnows46]

Also there's nothing to be guilty of, bets change, just try not to get impatient and put your bets in before ur your thoughts come full circle, which is much more important than getting the best odds, you pay more juice in losing the bet completly, you pay no juice when u win...line shoping, and coming to a conclusion quickly are important to getting value, but not important as getting the bet right.

[JIBBBY]

^ All good Josh.. GL on your Tumenov plays and I hope he wins in the 1st round by KO if he does win..

Larkin did get dropped and KO'd by Costas Philappou whom hits like a truck in round 1 of their fight a little over a year ago, so Larkin can get caught early in fights for sure by pressure strikers with power..

Lorenz was backing up in that fight and felt the power of Costas.. He does that with Tumenov he'll get dropped in the 1st round again as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lorenz-Larkin-51345

[bjpenn85]

^ All good Josh.. GL on your Tumenov plays and I hope he wins in the 1st round by KO if he does win..

Larkin did get dropped and KO'd by Costas Philappou whom hits like a truck in round 1 of their fight a little over a year ago, so Larkin can get caught early in fights for sure by pressure strikers with power..

Lorenz was backing up in that fight and felt the power of Costas.. He does that with Tumenov he'll get dropped in the 1st round again as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lorenz-Larkin-51345

1.If you didnt find the fight, here it is: http://bestinmma.blogspot.no/2015/06...nzinibbio.html
2. To get the best lines here are to sites i commonly use: www.bestfightodds.com and http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma

Its crazy important to have those. Sometimes the eurobooks, are completely off. Sportingbet for instance sometimes set their own line, which is just a f gift. I can remember jacare vs comozzi earlier this year @-130 a line that ended up -500 2 days later. They could basically print out cash on the street. This doesnt happen so often obviously but to by Larkin f.ex that your did +170 when several sportsbooks have lines +190, no point my man!

[bjpenn85]

two

[bjpenn85]

Also there's nothing to be guilty of, bets change, just try not to get impatient and put your bets in before ur your thoughts come full circle, which is much more important than getting the best odds, you pay more juice in losing the bet completly, you pay no juice when u win...line shoping, and coming to a conclusion quickly are important to getting value, but not important as getting the bet right.

This is the best post in 2015. Im buying a red carpet, limmo and some slaves to throw flowers in front! I know ive already nominated this post, but its so true. I wonder how many times over the years ive done this mistake. Sometimes i just sideline myself watching lines go to hell just to prove to myself it doesnt matter to loose optimal value as long as i make an informed decision based on every tangible facts/factors related to one fight!

[JIBBBY]

^^You get bets in early because you think the odds will move against your bet pick over time.. The only reason I rush into bets like this Larkin one is because of the projected line movement. I was wrong.. I've scored big and beat the odds in past fights locking them down early when the lines first come out even though Miri thinks I don't.. Sometimes it moves in your favor and sometimes it doesn't. I do once in a while get impatient with certain prop betting though and that's me betting stupid and not thinking it thru..

I do agree you should wait to fully cap a fight before placing and maybe even after the weigh ins.. I usually do that with most fights but didn't with this Larkin fight.. Come on guys give me a break.. You think I'm an MMA betting dummy after all this time?...

I look at ODDSBEAST for best odds just for the record. Or I just link up to all my sportsbooks really quick and check real time odds as I usually place the same bets on multiple books anyways. I typically only post up my 5Dimes copy and paste bets on SBR (because of the 5d prop betting) so you guys really don't see my entire picture of betting schemes most of the time...http://oddsb.com/

[bjpenn85]

-Josh it appears you are changing your mind a bit as well.. Now ya think Larkin get's stopped in round 2 or 3.. It's ok to change your mind after further capping.. I'm guilty of it at times too.. It appears you are giving Larkin a bit more of a chance now after reading your above post..

-BJPenn I do alot of capping that I don't post on this forum so yes I expand my capping range more then I show in just a few posts on SBR. Come on man.. I just try to present a nice presentation post with substance, gifs, records and trends to go along with a quick opinion write up.. Believe me I can type pages on each fighter if I really wanted too..

Allright, i havent claimed otherwise. Maybe a misunderstanding. I like youre illustrative post.

You shouldnt stick to your bets if you change your mind about this bet though. If you really feel that larkin is going home with the victory you should def stick to it. But if not, you should just 86 it, and go fulll throttle on tumenov instead. And, if you very often find yourself debating against josh (or even me, lol) that alone should doubt your own judgement. I cant remember betting a favourite in the -200 range and then losing a decision, it just doesnt happen that often. 1-2 times a year maybe. The majority of my losers are fighters that make mistakes after leading significantly on the judges scorecards before they make a stupid mistake and get choked out or Koed. These happens a lot in MMA though, so no excuse, because this risk evaluation are an important part of the capping, a fighters habit of taking unnecessary risk. But 9/10 im not predicting falsely of whats actually happening in a fight. Whos getting the takedown, where the fight ends up, standing or on the ground, whos the better striker etc. On those grounds you should rightfully second guess your own larkin pick by a pretty big margin. Sorry to say it!

[JIBBBY]

I read ya BJ.. Thanks man

[JIBBBY]

Just getting around to capping this prelim fight now.. Throwing up the basics in this post..

Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman: Scott Holtzman's undefeated record is starting to draw attention, but it's not quite time to start buying into him. That may change, however, if he can defeat serviceable journeyman Drew Dober.

Scott Holtzman is 8-0 http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Scott-Holtzman-78210but looking at his record though who has he really fought and beat that's impressive? Answer is nobody.. Drew Dober is a tough guy but has more decision losses recently then I'd like to see when trying to bet on him..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Drew-Dober-23982

UFC 195 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sat 1/2		1701 Scott Holtzman		-160	o2½ -220
8:30PM		1702 Drew Dober		+140	u2½ +180

Drew Dobers last 5 fights I cringe at, looking over his career thus far he seems to be the type of fighter that only wins by Submission or occasional decision because of his grappling base... Drew Dober did get dropped 5 years ago at age 22 in his only KO loss.. Drew Dober is only 27 years old now..

The play still has to be on the undefeated Holtzman one would think. Don't think Dober can out grapple Holzman or beat him standing.. Even though Holtzman has splits with his wins by KO's, decisions and submission in 8 pro fights, you gotta think this fight is going over and probably going to decision with Holtzman getting the nod.

1707 Holtzman wins by 3 round decision

+120

Hotzman will be the stronger fighter going in for sure.. This is him dumping Jason Hicks like he's paper weight..




Drew Dober is a fairly strong well rounded guy himself though, last quality win over a washed up Jamie Varner where he was gifted the rear naked choke..

[JIBBBY]

one would think that Abel will do whatever it takes to get a win in this one to keep his job. That would include grappling IMO

I can't argue with this logic TPowell..

I still haven't made a play on this fight yet and still remain undecided.. Abel is a strong brute and surely can over power Sims in the clinch or on the ground.. Punching power as well has to favor Abel.. Cards are a bit stacked up against Sims going in... Sims is still the far more skilled striker technically and if he can somehow keep the fight standing he could win on points or maybe even get the KO late...

[UncleChael]

You can beat the hell outta Robbie and he's still going to keep coming! Can't wait, I hope Ruthless knocks him out!! Condit more of the better technical striker, but ruthless is all power, hits like a truck, he's going to find Condits chin and put him down! He's the champ, he's here to stay!

[opinionator]

what if he cant put condit down

[JoshKnows46]

You can beat the hell outta Robbie and he's still going to keep coming! Can't wait, I hope Ruthless knocks him out!! Condit more of the better technical striker, but ruthless is all power, hits like a truck, he's going to find Condits chin and put him down! He's the champ, he's here to stay!

If anyone gets knocked out in this bout, it will be robbie that's layed out, with doctors standing over him.

[bjpenn85]

You can beat the hell outta Robbie and he's still going to keep coming! Can't wait, I hope Ruthless knocks him out!! Condit more of the better technical striker, but ruthless is all power, hits like a truck, he's going to find Condits chin and put him down! He's the champ, he's here to stay!

Hehe lawler gets rocked in every fight. Hes very tough, but people try to sell him as immortal. Even chuck, coutore etc. they all fall. He cant continue this "war hero"-style forever. Condit may not be the one to dethrone him, but his time will soon be over. Im on Condit though, so good luck.

[JIBBBY]

Condit is extremely hard to knock out cold.. He's like Nate and Nick Diaz in a sense where he gets rocked once in a blue moon but never goes unconscious.. Ruthless Robbie did stop Captain America look alike Rory Mac though which is very hard to do..

Still it's very hard to imagine Robbie Lawler KO'ing Condit and or pounding him out on the ground like he did to RM in this Gif below.. Rory quit after the nose busted where I don't think Condit would.. Condit is an angry fighter that never quits unless he blows out a knee..

[JIBBBY]

One way to stop Carlos Condit though is to attack those weak reconstructed knees.. Lawler isn't a big leg kicker though..

What is funny about this knee injury is that most people don't know the knee Condit blew out was not the one Woodley kicked.. Watch which knee he grabs in this gif.. Can't give Tyron Woodley the pure credit for that KO kick IMO...

[Sanity Check]

One way to stop Carlos Condit though is to attack those weak reconstructed knees.. Lawler isn't a big leg kicker though..

What is funny about this knee injury is that most people don't know the knee Condit blew out was not the one Woodley kicked.. Watch which knee he grabs in this gif.. Can't give Tyron Woodley the pure credit for that KO kick IMO...

Condit looked injured in that fight before the fight even began.

That was the worst he has ever looked in the cage.

[bjpenn85]

Condit is probably going to stick and move, fight is going to be boring i believe. Just note what he says at the end of this clip - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC3OscCIgaw