[MD]

I just try and pick a winner in every fight Ron and envision on how that fight might go that's it. Draw your own conclusions please..

Ron I'm gonna keep it real and I hope ya don't get upset.. I'm just being honest ok and going off memory..

I remember when I first came onto this forum you were one of the hottest gamblers for an event or 2 and I even gave you props at the time. (RON'S ON FIRE). Remember I posted that? I'm sure you do with the popcorn... I've never said that too anyone since... That was a sick run!!!!

I knew though that you were just an "emotional" streaky gambler when you said "I don't know what it is but when I train or work out I win bets".. Dime a dozen of those Ron.. I've seen them come and go and even end up in GA..

Sure enough shortly after the hot winning streak you started to lose regularly. I was paying attention too.. That's not a knock on you Ron but that's not gonna get it done over the long haul.. CONSISTENCY IS KEY in gambling!!! Read, read, and read more on fighters and their recent fights.. More info the better..

Alot of my posts and picks I intentionally defer to article reads first that I don't write. I just happen to agree with some of the write ups and I post them up and then expand on that.. Usually works out for me and that writer...

I crunch alot of info and data to arrive at my pics always.. I don't throw darts at a board sport because of favorable odds....
I hope you turn it around.. I like ya Ronny good luck in the future.....

More JIBBBY goodness. All bold and other formatting is from the original post.

[illmatick]

I don't like seeing people hawk on his private shit like that.That's what it is.

[MD]

I don't like seeing people hawk on his private shit like that.That's what it is.

I agree with you 100%. It's a public forum, so by necessity we're harsh, but that's how we keep (some) of the filth out. Being harsh, or even being a c-nt on an internet forum are completely different to posting some guy's personal information. This is literally a guy who (no offence to JIBBBY) could have some sort of mental condition, claiming to live in a 3mil$ mansion while being an MMA writer who knows nothing about MMA. I wouldn't want to have it on my soul that I took advantage of a guy who really doesn't understand what he's doing here. The internet isn't this guy's forte.

[MD]

Also, now that I've figured out who you are, you're instant top 3 SBR posters in my book.

Keep up the struggle my friend.

[Vaughany]

I agree, but here's the thing; I tried to help JIBBBY multiple times, but the guy just came over the top with insults. Did the exact same thing to other people in this very thread.

Guy is too defensive for his own good.



Wait, you couldn't be... What's your Twitter handle?

???

[MD]

???

I realized that I know illmatick (from his writing style), but didn't realize he was on SBR. Weird, since I've seen him post quite a bit. Heard he even wrote for SBR, if I'm not mistaken.

Happy surprise, honestly. That makes a lot of sense.

[Vaughany]

yeah Brian Mendez on the MMA previews on the site.

Ill was one of the main guy when I first joined back in the day along with eccocide and brooks

[Educ8d Degener8]

I didn't think Illy's identity was a secret...

[MD]

yeah Brian Mendez on the MMA previews on the site

Didn't know he was a writer, thought he was just a cool dude.

Now I understand his beef with Rocko a lot better.

I didn't think Illy's identity was a secret...

I knew who illmatick was, even knew his name, just didn't know he was this​ guy. Also, he's before my time. Barely posted since I've been here.

[marzwoody]

Haven't been there, we keep taking trips to see what places we can handle living in that would fit our situation.

Central America is a no go, the humidity just ain't no good.

Most of Western Europe would work except its hard to get in, which I don't understand, because everyone I've ever talked to while in England complains about all the immigrants who leach off the system.

Where i live north england its like 99% white people. and less black people = less crime. FACT.

[PunisherIND]

Where i live north england its like 99% white people. and less black people = less crime. FACT.

wow

[PaperTrail07]

You act as if it takes intelligence to live in a 3M dollar "mansion"....

[NunyaBidness]

You act as if it takes intelligence to live in a 3M dollar "mansion"....

There is certainly a correlation.

[NunyaBidness]

Public healthcare is good even though it generally gets criticized heavily. Mixed public/private system, government rebate if you have private healthcare. Most people don't consider what we've got in light of whats offered elsewhere, even when compared with other developed countries. Private is world class, as is public but its also known for long waiting lines, obviously more relevant for anything elective.

Immigration could be a problem depending on your situation. Most of the people that i know having problems are recent graduates and Europeans looking for working visas. You're best bet would be to apply for permanent residency, not sure how that works but could have a few conditions. A lot of guys I studied with eventually got permanent residency but don't know much about specifics. If you do end up considering it, do research on what healthcare you are eligible for under permanent residency vs other options.

Cattle-class return tickets to LA are not cheap, about 2k each or more around Christmas. Probably exclusionary if you're planning on going back 4 times a year.

Thanks for the info, I'll look more into it.

A lot of places have options to buy into the system in some ways, which is what I'll probably have to do. Nicaragua you have to put 40k into a reforestation project, Costa Rica you have to invest 30k into a bank, Croatia you need to hire two locals, etc, lots of things like that.

[Vaughany]

Where i live north england its like 99% white people. and less black people = less crime. FACT.

Haha

[Vaughany]

Thanks for the info, I'll look more into it.

A lot of places have options to buy into the system in some ways, which is what I'll probably have to do. Nicaragua you have to put 40k into a reforestation project, Costa Rica you have to invest 30k into a bank, Croatia you need to hire two locals, etc, lots of things like that.

Prostitutes count as hiring? (Just checki for a friend)

[NunyaBidness]

I'll let you know in March!

[Vaughany]

[Beelzebubzy]

Where i live north england its like 99% white people. and less black people = less crime. FACT.

This forum might have reached a new low.

[JIBBBY]

I agree, but here's the thing; I tried to help JIBBBY multiple times, but the guy just came over the top with insults. Did the exact same thing to other people in this very thread.

Ok MD help me.. I'm not defensive... Seriously.... I will listen to what ever you have to say and pay full attention with an open and humble mind..

This is my current system of play for MMA betting.... It's been VERY successful for me and consistent over the past 2 years.. Not lying ...

1) Capping - I cap each MMA fight to start off an event to arrive at straight win picks first. (witnessed on every event thread). I then consider value and then place.. I consider O/U round bets and props as I go after that.. I see trends, tendencies with fighters, strengths and weaknesses and apply that to betting. I've done really well with this over 2 years of play now.. How do I need help with that?

2) Structuring and balance - I defer to 2 and 3 team parlay bets mostly when the odds reach over -250 on strong plays that I think will win (this includes straight bets, O/U round bets and even Props). I structure parlay bets evenly and accordingly to protect bank roll. I understand bet structuring, bet balancing, protecting bank roll, and I consider each very carefully when placing... This has worked out pretty well for me over the last 2 years now How do I need help with that, how can I improve?

3) Prop bets - I first look for value and favorable odds with all.. I write them down and consider each for max value.. Envision how a fight should play out, a fighters strengths and weakness, trends and I will then play that prop accordingly to the ODDS being offered up if it makes sense.. Much like you guys do... I've played props for maybe 3 events now.. Broke even or maybe won a few bucks doing this.. I feel confident though in the future.. How can I improve with that, how can I learn?

* Intangibles - As you guys know I'm a firm believer in luck and or good fortune so to speak.... What goes around comes around.. This ties in with mental confidence, positive thinking, sharing, helping, giving to get in gambling so to speak.. I try to be generous, I try and be nice to others, I try and share in my personal life always, give to charities, look to help others whom are less fortunate.. This makes me feel good about myself, makes me like who I am, and in turn I think that helps with my overall gambling "LUCK" as crazy as that sounds.. I'm VERY lucky with the intangibles and always have been.. I've spoken about this before on this forum and got laughed at.. I can only speak for myself - Flip side - If I'm negative, selfish, angry, upset, the intangibles and good fortune will not swing in my favor... This has been going on for many many years... This is where streaky win play happens.... Running the table..

Fortune play - I play every (solid) fight pick, O/U round bet (solid) in a parlay bet for 5 bucks.. I do this every event.. Could end up being a 8-14 team parlay that can pay out 5-10 grand... I've hit that before.. Happens maybe once a year for me.. I contribute that to smart play and divine luck... A combination of the 2....

Now tell me what help do you think I need to learn with betting MMA and how I can improve my play?????? I'm fully open to suggestions? What am I missing?

[NunyaBidness]

* Intangibles - As you guys know I'm a firm believer in luck and or good fortune so to speak....

Stop doing that.

The hot hand theory was disproved a long time ago.

[PunisherIND]

1) Capping - I cap each MMA fight to start off an event to arrive at straight win picks first. (witnessed on every event thread). I then consider value and then place..

didn't you say that odds don't matter?

[MD]

Ok MD help me.. I'm not defensive... Seriously.... I will listen to what ever you have to say and pay full attention with an open and humble mind..

This is my current system of play for MMA betting.... It's been VERY successful for me and consistent over the past 2 years.. Not lying ...

1) I cap each MMA fight to start off an event to arrive at straight win picks first. (witnessed on every event thread). I do really well with that.. I consider O/U round bets and props as I go.. Trends, tendencies with fighters, strengths and weaknesses... How do I need help with that?

2) I differ to 2 team parlay bets mostly when the odds reach over -250 on strong plays that I think will win (this includes straight bets, O/U round bets and even Props). I structure parlay bets evenly and accordingly to protect bank roll. I understand bet structuring, bet balancing, protecting bank roll, and I consider each very carefully when placing... This has worked out pretty well for me over the last 2 years now How do I need help with that, how can I improve?

3) Prop bets - I first look for value and favorable odds with all.. I write them down and consider each for max value.. Envision how a fight should play out, a fighters strengths and weakness, trends and I will then play that prop accordingly to the ODDS being offered up if it makes sense.. Much like you guys do... I've played props for maybe 3 events now.. Broke even or maybe won a few bucks doing this.. I feel confident though in the future.. How can I improve with that, how can I learn?

* Intangibles - As you guys know I'm a firm believer in luck and or good fortune so to speak.... What goes around comes around.. This ties in with mental confidence, positive thinking, sharing, helping, giving to get in gambling so to speak.. I try to be generous, I try and be nice to others, I try and share in my personal life always, give to charities, look to help others whom are less fortunate then me always.. This makes me feel good about myself, makes me like who I am, and in turn I think that helps with my overall gambling "LUCK" as crazy as that sounds.. I'm VERY lucky with the intangibles and always have been.. I've spoken about this before on this forum and got laughed at.. I can only speak for myself - Flip side - If I'm negative, selfish, angry, upset, the intangibles and good fortune will not swing in my favor... This has been going on for many many years... This is where streaky win play happens.... Running the table..

Fortune play - I play ever solid fight pick, O/U round bet (solid) in a parlay bet for 5 bucks.. I do this every event.. Could end up being a 10-14 team parlay that pays out 5-10 grand... I have hit that before.. Happens maybe once a year for me.. I contribute that to smart play and divine luck... A combination of the 2....

Now tell me what help do you think I need to learn with betting MMA, how can I improve my play?????? I'm fully open to suggestions?

Ok I'm now listing to HELP... MD or anyone? If I can improve my gambling techniques I will be open to that.. I will thank for the help that improved my play.. I am willing to learn and improve always... MD????

1) Start thinking in terms of percentages. Play around with this a bit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/

If you type in a betting line, it'll convert it to a bunch of other things, including "implied probability". Basically, "implied probability" is the percentage chance of winning that a line represents. Your plays need to win at least a little bit more often than this number in order for them to be profitable. I'll give you an example.

A -300 line is a 3-1 favourite, meaning that they are expected to win 3 out of 4 times (3-1), or 75% (3/4 = 75%). If you expect this line to win more often than 75%, you have a bet. If you expect it to win as often or less often, it's a no-play. That's really all there is to it, there's no method as far as game selection. Just find spots where you think you have an edge, and bet accordingly.

If you bet this -300 line and you think it wins 80% of the time (we'll assume that you're right for this example), it's still going to lose 20% of the time. However, on average, every time you make this bet, you're going to turn a profit. This is what's called "expected value", or "EV".

Remember how I got on your ass about the "bet on who's going to win and ignore the odds" comment? I'll explain why.

Let's take a look at two lines. The first is TJ Dillashaw over Barao at +700 (in the first fight), the second is Bisping over Le -300. Now, hypothetically, let's say that you believe Dillashaw wins just 30% of the time, and that Bisping wins 70% of the time.

For the Dillashaw bet, 30% of the time you're going to win a +700 bet and get 7x your stake back, and 70% of the time you're going to lose your stake. For the Bisping fight, 70% of the time you're going to make 1/3rd of your stake, 30% of the time you're going to lose your stake. If you repeat these two bets 100 times (as we tend to, since there are a lot of cards), you'll make massive profit on average from the Dillashaw bet, and lose consistently on average from the Bisping bet.

I'll get to your other points in another post. Let me know if you want me to expand on anything or if there's anything I didn't explain well.

[JIBBBY]

1) Start thinking in terms of percentages. Play around with this a bit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/

If you type in a betting line, it'll convert it to a bunch of other things, including "implied probability". Basically, "implied probability" is the percentage chance of winning that a line represents. Your plays need to win at least a little bit more often than this number in order for them to be profitable. I'll give you an example.

A -300 line is a 3-1 favourite, meaning that they are expected to win 3 out of 4 times (3-1), or 75% (3/4 = 75%). If you expect this line to win more often than 75%, you have a bet. If you expect it to win as often or less often, it's a no-play. That's really all there is to it, there's no method as far as game selection. Just find spots where you think you have an edge, and bet accordingly.

If you bet this -300 line and you think it wins 80% of the time (we'll assume that you're right for this example), it's still going to lose 20% of the time. However, on average, every time you make this bet, you're going to turn a profit. This is what's called "expected value", or "EV".

Remember how I got on your ass about the "bet on who's going to win and ignore the odds" comment? I'll explain why.

Let's take a look at two lines. The first is TJ Dillashaw over Barao at +700 (in the first fight), the second is Bisping over Le -300. Now, hypothetically, let's say that you believe Dillashaw wins just 30% of the time, and that Bisping wins 70% of the time.

For the Dillashaw bet, 30% of the time you're going to win a +700 bet and get 7x your stake back, and 70% of the time you're going to lose your stake. For the Bisping fight, 70% of the time you're going to make 1/3rd of your stake, 30% of the time you're going to lose your stake. If you repeat these two bets 100 times (as we tend to, since there are a lot of cards), you'll make massive profit on average from the Dillashaw bet, and lose consistently on average from the Bisping bet.

I'll get to your other points in another post. Let me know if you want me to expand on anything or if there's anything I didn't explain well.

I need time to digest all this.. Thanks for sharing MD and I will get back to this thread after fully comprehending it all..

[marzwoody]

^ Thats really interesting MD good stuff.

[PaperTrail07]

Jibbby you must be forgetting MD is the god of betting... not a UFC card he has not capped correctly...lol jk.....

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I agree with you 100%. It's a public forum, so by necessity we're harsh, but that's how we keep (some) of the filth out. Being harsh, or even being a c-nt on an internet forum are completely different to posting some guy's personal information. This is literally a guy who (no offence to JIBBBY) could have some sort of mental condition, claiming to live in a 3mil$ mansion while being an MMA writer who knows nothing about MMA. I wouldn't want to have it on my soul that I took advantage of a guy who really doesn't understand what he's doing here. The internet isn't this guy's forte.

What?! When did he post that?

[PaperTrail07]

All that is just nonsense (obv not totally but your confusing the guy) just manage your $$ correctly and unless your chasing billions essentially martingale your $ back ..... that +EV for ya?

[FightFightFight]

1) Start thinking in terms of percentages. Play around with this a bit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/

If you type in a betting line, it'll convert it to a bunch of other things, including "implied probability". Basically, "implied probability" is the percentage chance of winning that a line represents. Your plays need to win at least a little bit more often than this number in order for them to be profitable. I'll give you an example.

A -300 line is a 3-1 favourite, meaning that they are expected to win 3 out of 4 times (3-1), or 75% (3/4 = 75%). If you expect this line to win more often than 75%, you have a bet. If you expect it to win as often or less often, it's a no-play. That's really all there is to it, there's no method as far as game selection. Just find spots where you think you have an edge, and bet accordingly.

If you bet this -300 line and you think it wins 80% of the time (we'll assume that you're right for this example), it's still going to lose 20% of the time. However, on average, every time you make this bet, you're going to turn a profit. This is what's called "expected value", or "EV".

Remember how I got on your ass about the "bet on who's going to win and ignore the odds" comment? I'll explain why.

Let's take a look at two lines. The first is TJ Dillashaw over Barao at +700 (in the first fight), the second is Bisping over Le -300. Now, hypothetically, let's say that you believe Dillashaw wins just 30% of the time, and that Bisping wins 70% of the time.

For the Dillashaw bet, 30% of the time you're going to win a +700 bet and get 7x your stake back, and 70% of the time you're going to lose your stake. For the Bisping fight, 70% of the time you're going to make 1/3rd of your stake, 30% of the time you're going to lose your stake. If you repeat these two bets 100 times (as we tend to, since there are a lot of cards), you'll make massive profit on average from the Dillashaw bet, and lose consistently on average from the Bisping bet.

I'll get to your other points in another post. Let me know if you want me to expand on anything or if there's anything I didn't explain well.

Wow. MD is a great guy. Very constructive. I forget everything that happened before this post.

[FightFightFight]

Oh wait. Getting back to work now. I forgot what I was doing. Or golf scoreboards. One or the other.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree --Very Cool of MD to take the time to explain that- Other probably took note as well

[PaperTrail07]

is there a difference

Oh wait. Getting back to work now. I forgot what I was doing. Or golf scoreboards. One or the other.

[FightFightFight]

Todd -3, Rory +3.

[JIBBBY]

All that is just nonsense (obv not totally but your confusing the guy) just manage your $$ correctly and unless your chasing billions essentially martingale your $ back ..... that +EV for ya?

I here ya..

I'm not confused Papertrail, I can think in mathematical terms but it does take me longer to fully comprehend and digest the terminology being used.. It's mostly the terminology being used that slows me down and not the numbers, percentages, theories and equations...

Here's the thing with what's going on here.. I spend most of my time reading current circulating articles and gathering up real info. on the fighters and their upcoming fights, watching vids on last fights, gathering current training camp info, Injury report info. etc.. It's part of my day job that fits in perfectly with the gambling.. I then need to spend more time after all that figuring out betting lines, what action to play, smart and effective bet structuring, etc.. It's become almost more then a FULL time job for me especially now that I've incorporated prop betting.. There's literally like 100 prop bets to consider with every event... I also cap MLB every morning.. That's a whole different beast..

To do more then I'm doing now may just take away from my system in place that already works for me.. I'm afraid of that, I'm afraid to tweak what already works so to speak.... So I agree with ya Papertrail...

MD - This is the only reason why I've resisted so hard and for so long in the past trying not to incorporate more, like mathematics, equations, percentages, gambling strategies, computer programs, that all you pro gamblers use.. It just doesn't interest me that much..

I use simple terms and methods in my posts and I know this frustrates MD, Nunya and many other pro's reading in.. I get that and apologize peps.. I use sherdog links regularly (the ketchup) They call my system of play Level 1 thinking.. Ok fine.. No problem..

HEY, but I will be taking the time to comprehend and completely understand what MD said... The link he posted up too.. He spent the time to write it, and I will spend the time to learn and comprehend it.. I appreciate that!!!

I can't promise I'm gonna incorporate any of it though even though it makes sense..

[MD]

MD - This is the only reason why I've resisted so hard and for so long in the past trying not to incorporate more, like mathematics, equations, percentages, gambling strategies, computer programs, that all you pro gamblers use.. It just doesn't interest me that much..

I use simple terms and methods in my posts and I know this frustrates MD, Nunya and many other pro's reading in.. I get that and apologize peps.. I use sherdog links regularly (the ketchup) They call my system of play Level 1 thinking.. Ok fine.. No problem..

HEY, but I will be taking the time to comprehend and completely understand what MD said... The link he posted up too.. He spent the time to write it, and I will spend the time to learn and comprehend it.. I appreciate that!!!

I can't promise I'm gonna incorporate any of it though even though it makes sense..

It's not so much about equations or formulas. There's surprisingly little of that (for MMA). You just have to understand a few key concepts, primarily "expected value" and why your expected results are more important than your actual results.

This is a classic example that gets thrown around a lot, but imagine that I flipped a coin (a fair coin, it'll flip 50/50 heads or tails), and then told you that if it comes up heads, I'll give you $50, and if it comes up tails, you have to give me $40. It's really obvious how great a spot this is, but you'll still lose 50% of the time, and after ten flips, you could easily be down money. Regardless, this is a situation in which we can see, mathematically, that this bet is profitable for you and you should make it as many times as possible with appropriate bet sizing.