Originally posted on 08/21/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
1) Start thinking in terms of percentages. Play around with this a bit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/

If you type in a betting line, it'll convert it to a bunch of other things, including "implied probability". Basically, "implied probability" is the percentage chance of winning that a line represents. Your plays need to win at least a little bit more often than this number in order for them to be profitable. I'll give you an example.

A -300 line is a 3-1 favourite, meaning that they are expected to win 3 out of 4 times (3-1), or 75% (3/4 = 75%). If you expect this line to win more often than 75%, you have a bet. If you expect it to win as often or less often, it's a no-play. That's really all there is to it, there's no method as far as game selection. Just find spots where you think you have an edge, and bet accordingly.

If you bet this -300 line and you think it wins 80% of the time (we'll assume that you're right for this example), it's still going to lose 20% of the time. However, on average, every time you make this bet, you're going to turn a profit. This is what's called "expected value", or "EV".

Remember how I got on your ass about the "bet on who's going to win and ignore the odds" comment? I'll explain why.

Let's take a look at two lines. The first is TJ Dillashaw over Barao at +700 (in the first fight), the second is Bisping over Le -300. Now, hypothetically, let's say that you believe Dillashaw wins just 30% of the time, and that Bisping wins 70% of the time.

For the Dillashaw bet, 30% of the time you're going to win a +700 bet and get 7x your stake back, and 70% of the time you're going to lose your stake. For the Bisping fight, 70% of the time you're going to make 1/3rd of your stake, 30% of the time you're going to lose your stake. If you repeat these two bets 100 times (as we tend to, since there are a lot of cards), you'll make massive profit on average from the Dillashaw bet, and lose consistently on average from the Bisping bet.

I'll get to your other points in another post. Let me know if you want me to expand on anything or if there's anything I didn't explain well.
I need time to digest all this.. Thanks for sharing MD and I will get back to this thread after fully comprehending it all..