[terpkeg]

Im going to start a running thread for my plays they run from 1 to 5 units. Ive probably made 6 or 7 five unit plays the past 2 years.

Werdum over Silva 1.5u/1u -150 Bodog

Silva's standup is mediocre at best and I beleive Werdum has a good chin. I had trouble finding many of Werdum's old fights as they are all owed by Zuffa and I dont have UFC on demand anymore, but if I recall correctly, he has always shown and ability to recover from knock downs. The Dos Santos uppercut would have ko'd an OX. Silva's standup is mediocre at best. He seems to drop his nahds alot, his footwork is not great and he seems on the slow side. Werdum has trained alot of standup the past several years and has improved.

And as for the grappling, Werdum is the better grappler.

The ways I see Silva winning this fight are 1) he keeps distance and uses reach to outpoint Werdum in dull stand up fight. When Werdum closes distance, he cannot get the trip takedown.

2) Silva winds up in top control and I have under estimated his ground game and he keeps Werdum on back using size to smother and limit Werdums offensive bjj.

But more likely, I think Werdum holds his owns on feet and as fight goes on Silva's cardio goes. By third, Werdum is taking fight to ground with trips and throws and domintates Silva from the tiop, ending fight in tko or sub.

I think Werdum should be in the -225 - -275 range.


Rockhold over Taylor 1u/1.6u +160 Bodog

Taylor is powerful, has great wrestling and good top control. He was on a nice 7 fight win streak before being controlled by Heiron. Rockhold has looked great under in Strikeforce and I think he is an up and comer with much potential. He has fast hands, power and has decent bjj.

I think the fight comes down to whether Rockhold can stay off of his back. The reason I am giving him the nod is because he trains at AKA and has the luxtury of working with Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck everyday.

Rockhold is the more explosive fighter and has more ways to win the fight. I would not be suprised if Taylor grinded out a decision, but I see value. I would think this fight would be a pick em.

[illmatick]

, solid plays, i might be on both of them as well

[terpkeg]

Bisping over Kang 1.5u/1.7u +110 5Dimes - I got +135 while back, but +110 still good. Kang has never stepped up in big fights. I think Bisping just let his nerves get to him at UFC 100. But here, he will be comfortble. He has better stand up imo and noone has ever inflicted any damage against him on the ground. Evans and Hamill coiuld not keep him down and neither will Kang. Bisping should be the fav -150 - -200 imo.

Couture over Vera 2/1.7 -117 Bookmaker - Give me father time at almost a pick . Vera has not looked elite in about 2+ years (since the layoff.) Whereas, Couture brings it with the best every time out. If Couture can press Lesnar against the cage and dump him (cage grab kept him up), he will close the distance and maul the shit out of Vera. Vera's stand up couldnt keep werdum from taking fight to ground and I think Couture has his way here. I am waiting for Couture to hit a wall, but despite losses to Lesner and Nog he only proved to me that he can still fight with elite guys.

Pearson over Riley .5/.7 +175 Bookmaker - This just seems high to me. Riley is well rounded and I respect his overall game. I had him fairly large against Nelson, but Pearson has better wretling than Nelson and better standup imo. I may make this play larger with more research, but seemed like a good idea to take a piece now.

[terpkeg]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Hathaway over Taylor 1.5u/.9u. -170 Bodog[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]
Taylor has good stand up. He dropped Davis and i thought he beat Lytle with strikes. But Hathaway took Ricky Story down and out grappled him, so i dont see why he cant do the same to Taylor. Taylor couldnt stop the takedown against Kelly and from what i have seen of the two, Hathaway is much more explosive. I wouldnt be suprised to see him finish Taylor from the top. [/COLOR]

Gurgerty over Etim +325 Bodog 1u/3.3u

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Etim -500/+325 on Bodog. Seems high to me. I havnt had a chance to re-watch their fights this week, but from my recollection, I was expecting -220 range.

I put 1 unit on +325 believing i can bet back at close to no lose when 5d and bookmaker put their lines out.

Etim has excellent stand up and has been able to pull of some sub's. But he has also left himself open. Further, he was taken down by both Cobb and Buscholtz. And, although neither of them capitilized, Gurgerty has been a threat to end fights with his bjj in the ufc. Really just think line is too high. Gurgerty has a 5-0 amatuer muy thai record, and has been training with Vera since he was in high school, so hopefully he can survive on feet long enough to get fight to mat.[/COLOR]

[terpkeg]

Darabedyan over McCollough 1u/1.5u +150 Bookmaker –
Waited all day for these lines and the +265 moved on me within minutes and i missed it. But will still take +150 as i cant see Razor Rob being favored over a young well-rounded prospect. Darabedyan has a black belt in judo, karate and takwondo. He also has amatuer boxing and muy thai experience. Although fight footage on him is limited, he appears to be well rounded. This is more of a play against Razor Rob as he has looked terrible since his KO loss to Varner. Although he was injured (broken hand) against Hicks, I am not sure when that happened and was hesitent from the opening bell. He did not look good against Alexander either and was thouroughly out struck by Corronne. I am not sure if he has lost a step or has lost some motivation, or both, but he does not appear to be the threat he once was.

Hoped to get Gamburyan as a +150 or higher, but probably no play at current line.

Lean on MTB as well as he is much stronger and has never been ko'd.

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LC Davis over Diego Nunez 1u/1.4 +140 Bookmaker
Davis kind of has had a fall from grace lately, going from one of the favorites to win the WVR feathorweight gp to an underdog against Nunez who frequents the WEC undercards. Nunes is a muy thai and bbj fighter, but he will want to keep this fight standing.
Davis has had success in the pst taking fighters down and pounding them with top control and i think there is a better chance that he succeeds here.
The reason Davis looked like shit against Omigawa is because he could not take him down. I dont think he should be the underdog as he gets this fight to the ground in atleast 2 of the 3 rounds and stays active enought o get dec nod.

[terpkeg]

Brown/Aldo to win FON .5u/1.4u +275 Bookmaker
McCollough/Darabedyan to win FON .5u/2.1u +425 Bookmaker

I really think there is a good chance one of these takes fight of night. This is also a little insurance against my Darabedyan play because i think for McCollough to win the fight he is going to have to come out more explosive and active than he was last time out, and he has show the ability to take punishment. If a war on the feet enues, then there is a good chance for FON imo.

With Brown v. Aldo, Brown has never been ko'd, and Aldo is very explosive. Both of their recent fights have been very exciting, if Aldo can avoid being smothered by Brown on the ground and can get his striking going at all, there is a good chance this will take it. Basically, if this fight goes into the championship rounds, it is going to take a very, very strong perfomance by two othre compititors to keep the bonus checks out of their hands.

[terpkeg]

Real short on time but wanted to throw these out there

Sirtopoulous over Dent 3u/.9u -340 bodog - lines moved real quick, was -280. But should be -500. 90% sirtopoulos wins this fight imo.

Cane over Lil Nog 1u/1.5u +155 bodog - close to even skill sets here. lil nog better ground game but think line too high

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Ortiz/Griffin to go Distance 2u/1.1u -185 5dimes

Only way i see this fight ending early is by injury or Griffin gets stopped by tko from gnp. Griffin never finishes anyone with his hands. Ortiz bjj is underrated. That, coupled with fact he has very good control makes me hard to see Griffin sub. Ortiz is coming off long layoff and Griffin is more well rounded than he was 3,5 years ago and i think he will do a better job keeping this one standing. Standing i dont think anyone will be finished. I see 2 rounds to 1 decision for Griffin, but think this bet has better value.

[terpkeg]

Following up on the UFC 106 plays....

Added another 1u to
Sotiropoulos over Dent 4u/1.2u -340 bodog

JAson Dent looks like he should be at 145 to me. He seems soft and does not have the power to get a ko on the feet barring a fluke. He has made a career of off subbing people. Dent was ebing severly outstruck by Cameron Dollar last time out before cathcing him in an anacanda. I see almost no way he subs G Sotir. Sotir survived almost a full round with Aoki tied up around his legs. Sotir standup looked decent last time out. He hurt Roop on the feet. Throughout his UFC career he has had no problem taking people down. IMO he will over power Dent, take him down, soften him up and finish him with strikes or a sub in the first.

Cane over Lil Nog 1u/1.5u +155 bodog
You can still get +140 at Bodog. I figured Lil Nog has an advantage on the ground bc i have seen him utilize it against steller comp, but, Cane is also a BBJ black belt. Nog seems to have no problem standing with people and I would not be suprised if this fight turns into a boxing/muy thai fight. Despite Nog being a member of the Braz Natl Boxing team, I think Cane, although maybe not as technical may be more dangerous. This is really anyone fight to me. Cane has shown good cardio and a solid chin in his fights with Soko and Cantwell. This fight is a pick imo and if the line moves enough, I may take my free money and enjoy.

[terpkeg]

Mir over Congo 1.5u/1u -155 5dimes

Until Congo can show me that his game has progressed beyond having excellent kickboxing, I will feel comfortable betting against him at this line. We all know Mir has an excellent ground game, but if you can take anything out of his last two performances is that his stand up has improved dramatically. While this does not mean he should stand and bang with Congo, I do believe he can present enough of a challenge on the feet to make Congo work. When this happens, I fully expect Congo to lose discipline and wind up being taken down from the clinch. Unlike Lesnar, Congo will not have the suffocating top control to neutralize Mir's guard and offensive BBJ. I like this play for 1u from -175- 200

[terpkeg]

Alexander over Slice 1u/.6u -162 Bookmaker -
Missed the opener -115 which would have ben hit for 2 units.

With both fighters showing no propensity to go to ground, prolly will play out on the feet. Kimbo may want to shoot and look for some ground and pound and use his size advantage, but takedowns and td defense do not come over night, and I think both fighters revert to their stand up roots.

With that said, this is a match up of Kimbo's boxing vs. Alexander's muy thai. Alexander seems to have more well versed and dangerous stand up, he utilizes leg kicks and knees very effectively. Both men have been ko'd recently, Alexander by Irvin and Silva and Kinbo by Petrizelli's jab, so this is a high variance fight.

Kimbo says the weight cut was very tough on him and I hinestly think he has lost some confidence. Alexander should have better movement and should win this fight 70% of the time, making -162 a sold play.

[terpkeg]

Alexander -160 open at bodog, adding another .5u before moves

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Wallace over Stann .5u/.6u +115 Bodog
Wallace, Rodney – 9-0
5’9 light heavyweight
Has boxing backround, 4-1 as pro, seems to kep hands low and throw no kicks, but footage limited. Had been training with Tim Kennedy but Kennedy moving.
Has has shown nice bjj in fights
Good athlete, 3 time state h.s. wrestling champ, played D11 football
Coming off of nice tourney victory on 9/5/09 in Aruba. Fights were two 5 minute rounds and he defeated Antwain Britt (collegiate wrestling stand out) by armbar in finals. Would assume good cardio. Defeated IFL vet Aaron Stark by kimura in semi who has fought UFC vets, picked up wins of Alex Shoenauer and Andy Reese.

Stann, Brian
6’1 powerful striker with serious ko power, good athlete, played D1 football at Navy – is training camps at Jackson MMA.
Should have nice reach advantage, technical boxer, doesn’t throw many leg kicks
Has been hurt on feet by Cantwell in 2nd fight. Third fight very slow, Stann won standup, nobody threatened. Cantwell was -300 after Stann be -300 in 2nd fight.
Soszynski took Stann down at will, ended in first with a kimura +145

If Soszynski can dump Stann easily, Wallace should be able to. Think he can hurt him with elbows on the ground. Not sure about chin. But guy looks strong and seems to have a powerful right. Not sure how standup will go, but no need to test it for Wallace.
I think Wallace should be slight fav so a little value here.

[terpkeg]

UFC 108

Condit over Daley 2u/1.4u -145 Bookmaker

Condit is a 6'1 well rounded fighter with decent muy thai and very good BJJ and Judo throws. He has a good chin and can take punishment. He is battle tested and proves to be very resilient late in fights.

Daley is a 5'9 Brit with excellent fst, powerful hands. His career has been marred be a failure to advance in takedown defense and ground game. His td defense has looked better in recent fights, but still not good enough.

IMO Condit should be around -240. Nick Thompson's decision win over Daley should be a blue print of where to start for COndit. Use your reach to keep Daley at bay. WHen he is close enough to unleash his power, work for the takedown where. Once on his back, Daley is basically a fish out of water.

If Condit didnt have such a good chin and propensity to recover from heavy shots, I think this line would be more accurate. But, even if he gets dropped, I think he can recover.

[terpkeg]

RTD 10-3 +8.9u

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Nelson over Schaub 1u/.4u -250 Bookmaker
I think line bottomed out at -243, so will take now.

Roy Nelson – Black Belt in Bjj under Renzo Gracie, great ground game, good cardio. Stand up is lacking, get hit a lot, top control is excellent. Very patient


In all 3 TUF fights he got out struck imo. But can take a punch and does have power and of his own. (Wren outstruck him until he gassed hard)
On ground, is all about patiently working to dominant position then pounding.

Schaub Brendan – 6’6’ Former AFL football player who trains with Trevor Whittman in Colo with Carwin and Marquardt. Share camps with Jackson MMA. Won Golden Gloves in colorado and has purple belt in bjj. Got taken down at will in first minute of second fight v. johnny curtis (who was all american wrestler with no stand up)

In all three fights on show Rogers, Madsen and Davis, he was taken down almost at will. Escaped mount against Rogers and Daivs. Two nice ko’s and an anacanda on Rogers.

Here, Schaub will not be able to escape mount. If fight goes down, Nelson will slowly work his game and succeed, but anytime fight goes up, Nelson in danger of getting ko'd. This is a similiar situation to the Arlovski fight last year, excpet Schaub is not Arlovski and seems much more suseptable to takedown. Would think Nelson could manage to implement his game 75% of time at a minimum so playing the -300 is a push, but may want to start with 1u at -250, 1.5u at -225 if it gets there.

[terpkeg]

Guess i jumped the gun on Nelson, added another 1u at -215 bookmaker for total:
Nelson over Schaub 2u/.9u

[terpkeg]

This is really suprising to me NElson now at -173 addin abother 1u for .6u

Just dont think Schaub can keep this fight up enough to pull out the win here. Yea, he escaped mount against Rogers and Big baby. Two guys with a total of 5 professional fights. Big baby has been training BJJ for TWO years. Nelson has dedicated a majority of his life to it.

Nelson can get hurt on the feet, but I think he has the chin to take enough to impliment his game plan.

RTD 10-3 +8.9u

Pending plays:
Nelson over Schaub 3u/1.5u
Alexander over Kimbo 1.5u/.9u (dont recommend play at current number)
Wallace over Stann .5u/.6u

UFC 107
Mir over Kongo 1.5u/1u

UFC 108
Condit over Daley 2u/1.4u (better number available, but would keep at 2u until Condit gets into +, which he shouldnt imo)

[Bread]

Go Schaub

[terpkeg]

Adding:
Linhares over Palhares 1u/2.6u +260 - Linahres BJJ almost negates Palhares. Linhares stand up even looks a little better imo, but that is not saying much. He does have power in right, but Palhares has good chin. I see decision fight with Palhares only about 60% on top.

Struve over Buentello 1u/.6u -190 missed -125 open here, but think Struve length is going to give buentello, who like to stayy on outside, alot of problems. If Buentello gets inside, I dont see him having the power to devestate Struve like Dos Santos did. And if fight hits ground, huge advantage for Struve.

Hendricks over Funch 2u/.5u -365 - Funch is purple belt in BJJ, from fights I saw, didnt seem to bring too much to table as a striker. Hendricks very powerful with hands. All american wrestler, serios prospect here and I think he takes care of business pushing 90% of time.

Fitch over Pierce 2u/.6u -350 - Pierce will try to beat a much better and more seasoned version of himself. Fitch is almost impossible to finish and Pierce loves to take down and smother people. He will not be able to implement his game on Fitch, one of thie divisions biggest and best wrestlers.

All lines bookmaker

[terpkeg]

RTD 11-5 +8.4u

Pending
Mir over Kongo 1.5u/1u -155
Linhares over Palhares 1u/2.6u
Struve over Buentello 1u/.6u
Hendricks over Funch 2u/.5u -365
Fitch over Pierce 2u/.6u -350

Condit/Daley is off due to Condit injury which is nice b/c i took a bad line.

[terpkeg]

Kind of annoying that as I am putting Struve play in at -170, Bookmaker changes line on me to -190, I accept bet anyway even though that was almost out of the range i wanted. Then one minute later, I refresh lines and they move it back to
-174.

[illmatick]

any links to some film on funch?

[terpkeg]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6sec...eature=related

this is all i can find at the moment, not very good quality. there is another one floating around out there, i will post it when i find it again.

it's hard for me to see how funch wins this fight as he seems to use his bjj to set up finishes. with hendricks being one of the most accomplshed wrestlers in the ufc, i just dont see him giving up top control. hendricks has had much success grappling in the past few years as well.

[terpkeg]

Really suprised that the Linhares/Palhares odds are not closer. Palhares doesnt finish anyone with strikes, and Linhares is a very accomplished grappler himself. I think this will be a close fight.

[terpkeg]

Also adding another 1u on Struve at -120 on Bodog. Really took a bad line on that one.

Close to making a play on Belcher as well. Hoping for a +120. Belcher biggest weakness imo is his takedown defense. Gouviea does not have very good takedowns and is easily drawn into slugfests. Gouviea's cardio has been pourous throught his career and i can see him getting finished late in this fight. Also, he wont have a size advantage over Belcher who is a big MW.

[Bread]

I like Struve as a fighter a lot. GL Terp

[terpkeg]

[quote=terpkeg;2720416]RTD 11-5 +8.4u

Pending
Mir over Kongo 1.5u/1u -155
Linhares over Palhares 1u/2.6u
Struve over Buentello 1u/.6u
Hendricks over Funch 2u/.5u -365
Fitch over Pierce 2u/.6u -350

quote]

added Struve 1u for total 2u/1.4u
added Fitch 2u for total 4u/1.1u - Really just think Pierce is very over matched. Larson layed -550 against him and I think the outcome there was more indicative of Larson's preperation and skill of late than Pierce. Pierce cannot outwrestle Fitch and beside having a punchers chance, he is not bringing much to the table here. Fitch is hard to finish and i catually set this line at -700, not sure why i didnt hit it harder to begin with. In my haste to get plays in before line moves I make mistakes sometimes, need to work on that.

[terpkeg]

4-1 +3u
RTD 14-4 +11.9u

Really thought Struve would finish Buentello if he took his back like that. MAde things a little more intereseting.

[terpkeg]

Strikeforce 12/19
Smith over Le +300 Bodog 1u/3u - Le is a winner. He has won at every level of compitition he has applied himself to, that is what makes me hesitent here. But, there are also many questions surrounding him. How will the layoff effect him? When will age catch up? Is his head where it should be? What will happen when he gets pushed late? Smith is hard to finish and hits harder than anyone Le has faced. The longer this fight lasts the more of a chance Smith can hurt Le. I think Le will beat him up with an array of strikes early, but he wont be able to finish him and i would say 30-35% of time Smith can get the finish making +300 too high.

Would have loved to hit King Mo at -245, but i think -415 is on the fringe of no play.

UFC 109
Coleman over Couture +310 Bookmaker 1u/3.1u - Couture looks like age is catching up with him. He doesnt seem as strong and his reactions seem a step slower. He wont be able to outwrestle Coleman and while he should still hold an advantage on the feet +310 seems too high for me.

[terpkeg]

RTD 15-4 +14.9u
I think I hit Smith-Le right on. Le wins that fight more often than not, but Smith is one tough SOB.

Adding UFC 109
Marquardt over Sonnen -280 Available everywhere 3u/1.1u
Im not sold on Sonnen despite his domination of Okami. He has always been suseptible to submissions. He is not too far removed from giving Filho a gimme armbar in a fight he was dominating. Maia had not problem putting him away early and Dan Miller almost choked him out early. Don't see how Sonnen wins this fight. Marquardt has been dropped in his UFC career, Silva and Leites come tommind, but I dont think Sonnen packs the power to KO him. I think Marquardt is the 2nd best MW in the UFC right now and think this line should be north of
-450. Marquardt can out grapple Sonnen and win by sub, or overwhelm on feet.

Also pending
Coleman over Couture 1u/3.1u

[Bread]

We hit that Smith fight good. What a win!

[terpkeg]

We hit that Smith fight good. What a win!

[terpkeg]

Dynamite 2009
Izumi over Shibata +130 Bookmaker 2u/2.6u
Izumi is a former Olympic Silver medal and while he looked a little soft in his MMA debut, he should have no problem taking care of Shibata, a former Pro Wreslting star who is used by FEG for for name recoginition. To give Shibata credit he does have big heart and is improving but his striking is undisiplined and lacks the power to take out Izumi. Izumi in his debut lost actually looked technical and disipline onthe feet against a pro kick boxer. I think he can win the battle standing, but most likely will follow the lead of much smaller fighters Jason Miller and Akiyama and take Shibata down and control him before ending in submission or strikes. Their is plenty of unknowns for Izumi holding this play to 2u, but I still cant believe he is an underdog