1. 03-29-13 05:47 PM #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber Guard View Post
    Meaning, as much as the commentators wanted to slab on Rickels nuts for his "bottom game", Awad could take him down and find no danger in his guard....even though he was valued as some dude with power in his hands. Someone here said he was a glorified TKO prop. I don't need to say everything understandable do I? Catch a drift.

    You seem to miss-read posts a lot. BEFORE THE WILD EXCHANGE I HAD AWAD WINNING THE 2nd, AND THE WHOLE FIGHT. Obviously once he was dropped on his face that changes. Lets not be retarded.
    meng you mis read me nikka. I said SBRFORUM not rubberguard. See others are claiming he won the 2nd. I cant catch a drift because this all just text meng.
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  2. 03-29-13 05:49 PM #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rubber Guard View Post
    To sum it up and the whole reason we are talking about this is because you said "why did people like Awad?" Seemed like he was the better fighter for most all of the fight...and he could be had at decent dog odds. Doesn't seem like the proper thing to ask after almost a 2 to 1 favorite had to have a wild KO comeback.
    well I dont score lay and pray very high. I dont know but that is Rickels MO. Almost all his fights look like that. Awad did grapple. I thought that he was too dumb to even try that.

    But lets not kid ourselves. When two low level bums in bellator fight. And both have KO power but one has a chin and the other ate shit against Nam Phan. I know who Im backing.
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  3. 03-29-13 05:50 PM #108
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  4. 03-29-13 06:11 PM #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Nunya: % of time Awad wins the second round.


    You're acting like his KO there is inevitable, and the forum is acting like its a wild fluke. Awad at closing prices was clearly the right side.
    Thank you for acting sensible, its why I stated, I would make this bet again.
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  5. 03-29-13 06:31 PM #110
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    % of time Awad wins the second round. is really bullshit. this isnt blackjack. That round is never going to happen again in that exact same way. It's the wrong way to think about fighting.
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  6. 03-29-13 06:32 PM #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sacrelicious View Post
    Thank you for acting sensible, its why I stated, I would make this bet again.
    what does that even mean? Whats the point of saying this? That round and fight is a one time thing. It's not like flipping a coin 100 times.

    I dont give a shit about closers either in a bullshit market like this. For f-cks sakes no one is running a computer model on bellator bums.

    Beating a ineffienct market because it's inefficient than citing "efficient" closers as the reason for a "right" side is bordering retardation.
    Last edited by sideloaded; 03-29-13 at 06:37 PM.
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  7. 03-29-13 06:48 PM #112
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    my homie sider spittin knowledge on yous foooz
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  8. 03-29-13 06:58 PM #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    % of time Awad wins the second round. is really bullshit. this isnt blackjack. That round is never going to happen again in that exact same way. It's the wrong way to think about fighting.
    Just when I thought you were getting smarter. . .

    Why wasn't Mir a -1000000 favorite going into his rematch with Lesnar?
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  9. 03-29-13 07:05 PM #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Just when I thought you were getting smarter. . .

    Why wasn't Mir a -1000000 favorite going into his rematch with Lesnar?

    Keep pretending beating closers in bellator means f-ck all
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  10. 03-29-13 08:33 PM #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    You're acting like his KO there is inevitable, and the forum is acting like its a wild fluke. Awad at closing prices was clearly the right side.


    Sider is not right.
    There you go....i have little time right now so at least ill throw a gunshard post.
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  11. 03-29-13 08:53 PM #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    Keep pretending beating closers in bellator means f-ck all
    When I'm wrong, I try to change the subject too.
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  12. 03-29-13 09:44 PM #117
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    I miss seeing my head on a dog in V's avatar and seeing myself take a dump in Nunya's
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  13. 03-29-13 09:46 PM #118
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    Wait, I thought you were going to sue me for that?
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  14. 03-29-13 10:05 PM #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Wait, I thought you were going to sue me for that?
    lol what? i hardly ever acknowledged it

    oh yeah, i think i remember sayin it had caused a lot of emotional damage and i was seeking an attorney or something lmao but clearly joking

    also joking about missing it- could care less either way
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  15. 03-30-13 03:31 AM #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    When I'm wrong, I try to change the subject too.
    He's wrong, but so are you.

    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    You're acting like his KO there is inevitable, and the forum is acting like its a wild fluke. Awad at closing prices was clearly the right side.
    How the fight did go has little bearing on how the fight can go, given a large number of repetitions. Saying Awad was the right side because of how the fight went in one such instance is incorrect.
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  16. 03-30-13 03:53 AM #121
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    Oh no! What is this place? Now the right side was Rickels?

    LOL
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  17. 03-30-13 06:46 AM #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    When I'm wrong, I try to change the subject too.
    i have no idea what you are talking about. My point fits perfect with reality. A fight and round happens one time. Acting like these fights can be reproduced over and over like a coin flip or black jack is dumb.

    Frank Mir being -1000000000000000000 i have no idea what you are talking about. Instead of being a smart ass just explain your point.

    putting a % on various outcomes before the fight is the only way to cap fights. But once the fight has happened. It's over. They're is no going back and saying well the coin just landed on heads this time. Next time it could be tails. There will never be a next time and never will. Talking about that shit is wasting everyones time. Even if the rematch all the variables will be changed forever.
    Last edited by sideloaded; 03-30-13 at 06:53 AM.
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  18. 03-30-13 06:50 AM #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grabaka View Post
    Oh no! What is this place? Now the right side was Rickels?

    LOL
    I don't think anyone said that the right side was Rickels. But claiming Awad was the right side because he won the first round and was winning the second until the end is also silly.

    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    Frank Mir being -1000000000000000000 i have no idea what you are talking about. Instead of being a smart ass just explain your point.
    He's referring to the fact that Mir smoked Lesnar in their first fight. His logic being that if there's only one way the fight can go, then surely Mir is 100% likely to win the second fight. Obviously there are other factors (Brock's improvement, for example), but I believe that's the point he's trying to make.
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  19. 03-30-13 06:51 AM #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    He's wrong, but so are you.



    How the fight did go has little bearing on how the fight can go, given a large number of repetitions. Saying Awad was the right side because of how the fight went in one such instance is incorrect.
    Please all you smarts asses who are saying im wrong. Quit hit and running or posting -10000000 frank mir riddles. Spill the beans, what am I deathly wrong about here? Or else im blowing off this thread because it's wasting my time.
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  20. 03-30-13 06:52 AM #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I don't think anyone said that the right side was Rickels. But claiming Awad was the right side because he won the first round and was winning the second until the end is also silly.



    He's referring to the fact that Mir smoked Lesnar in their first fight. His logic being that if there's only one way the fight can go, then surely Mir is 100% likely to win the second fight. Obviously there are other factors (Brock's improvement, for example), but I believe that's the point he's trying to make.
    and I completely agree. In fact that is my point. Once the first fight was over, it's over. The second fight is completely different. That example is what im saying. Maybe I just wasn't clear enough.

    I understand %'s but once a fight has played out. You have all your answers. The closer doesn't matter, The fight happened. You really cant say something was a fluke or the guy who lost was the right side after the fight. Now under different circumstances you can say that the guy who lost still has a better shot at winning. But it's still a brand new occurrence. At that point you are not playing with the same deck of cards or flipping the same coin.

    It's why full kelly would work perfectly flipping a weighted coin but would probably cause you to go broke betting sports.

    I've made the mistake too. I no longer think rousey any other result +280 was a good bet. Why? because it lost and I will never be able to make that same exact bet again. It's just wasting time thinking losing bets were the "right" side or "good" bets. Now Rousey may be over valued and that bet will be worth a lot more in the future in different circumstances, but that doesn't go back and change what happened in that first round. Rousey won and the bet was a loser on that night with those circumstances.

    But that is just me. I find it easier and fitting more with my world view that no bet that lost is the right side.
    Last edited by sideloaded; 03-30-13 at 07:22 AM.
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  21. 03-30-13 09:04 AM #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    I don't think anyone said that the right side was Rickels. But claiming Awad was the right side because he won the first round and was winning the second until the end is also silly.
    It's not about saying Awad was the right side because he won the first round, it's claiming he was the right side because we now have new information. The fight did not play out as most would've suspected it to, we had imperfect information the first time around.
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  22. 03-30-13 09:10 AM #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    and I completely agree. In fact that is my point. Once the first fight was over, it's over. The second fight is completely different. That example is what im saying. Maybe I just wasn't clear enough.

    I understand %'s but once a fight has played out. You have all your answers. The closer doesn't matter, The fight happened. You really cant say something was a fluke or the guy who lost was the right side after the fight. Now under different circumstances you can say that the guy who lost still has a better shot at winning. But it's still a brand new occurrence. At that point you are not playing with the same deck of cards or flipping the same coin.

    It's why full kelly would work perfectly flipping a weighted coin but would probably cause you to go broke betting sports.

    I've made the mistake too. I no longer think rousey any other result +280 was a good bet. Why? because it lost and I will never be able to make that same exact bet again. It's just wasting time thinking losing bets were the "right" side or "good" bets. Now Rousey may be over valued and that bet will be worth a lot more in the future in different circumstances, but that doesn't go back and change what happened in that first round. Rousey won and the bet was a loser on that night with those circumstances.

    But that is just me. I find it easier and fitting more with my world view that no bet that lost is the right side.
    I think you're trolling, but I'll bite.

    Rehashing right side/wrong side after a fight doesn't win us our money back, and rarely provides us insight into a rematch (since they rarely occur), but what it can do is provide a framework to understand mistakes we're making in our own capping.

    I'm sure Gabe considers his Carlo Prater over Erick Silva to be the right side, but it clearly wasn't.

    There is considerably more variance in sports than any of you seem to understand.
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  23. 03-30-13 10:05 AM #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    It's not about saying Awad was the right side because he won the first round, it's claiming he was the right side because we now have new information. The fight did not play out as most would've suspected it to, we had imperfect information the first time around.
    The funny thing is that, after it was said that Awad is a glorified KO prop, it was clear that Awad lacked the power to consistently finish Rickels, and Rickels was blasting Awad on the feet. Classic striker vs grappler matchup, but not as most thought.

    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I think you're trolling, but I'll bite. There is considerably more variance in sports than any of you seem to understand.
    As someone who has no problem 'capping fighters as 95%+ favourites, I may fall into this group. I'll defend to my dying breath that Nate Diaz had less than a 2% chance to beat Ben Henderson though.
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  24. 03-30-13 10:23 AM #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    He's wrong, but so are you.
    The same way I was wrong about Game Theory, DublinUp?
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  25. 03-30-13 10:31 AM #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    The same way I was wrong about Game Theory, DublinUp?
    When I'm wrong, I try to change the subject too.



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  26. 03-30-13 10:34 AM #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    As someone who has no problem 'capping fighters as 95%+ favourites, I may fall into this group. I'll defend to my dying breath that Nate Diaz had less than a 2% chance to beat Ben Henderson though.
    I'll make you a prop bet. You pick 20 fighters who are 95% or greater favorites in your mind, I'll take even money that at least one of them loses.

    Obviously, you can't take the bet because you'll always get a better price than that, but my point is these >95% favorites are much rarer than you think.
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  27. 03-30-13 10:35 AM #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by MD View Post
    When I'm wrong, I try to change the subject too.
    We're trapped in a vortex.
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  28. 03-30-13 10:40 AM #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I'll make you a prop bet. You pick 20 fighters who are 95% or greater favorites in your mind, I'll take even money that at least one of them loses.

    Obviously, you can't take the bet because you'll always get a better price than that, but my point is these >95% favorites are much rarer than you think.
    My 'capping may be too loose, I've always felt that it's a possibility, but when I objectively analyse certain fights, I simply can't imagine certain fighters losing more than 2-5% of the time. It's rare that I estimate a fighter's chances to be that high, however. I like to think I'm generally pretty on point when I'm that confident in a play. I didn't even think Lyoto was a 90% favourite over Hendo, and that was one of my biggest plays of the year so far.

    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    We're trapped in a vortex.
    The same way I was wrong about Game Theory, DublinUp?
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  29. 03-30-13 12:01 PM #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I think you're trolling, but I'll bite.
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  30. 03-30-13 12:25 PM #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I think you're trolling, but I'll bite.

    Rehashing right side/wrong side after a fight doesn't win us our money back, and rarely provides us insight into a rematch (since they rarely occur), but what it can do is provide a framework to understand mistakes we're making in our own capping.

    I'm sure Gabe considers his Carlo Prater over Erick Silva to be the right side, but it clearly wasn't.

    There is considerably more variance in sports than any of you seem to understand.
    I felt either Mike Massenzio or Carlo Prater were going to get a flukey win and bust a lot of parlays that night. I decided that Prater had the better chance of making that happen, so I laid some good money down on him. Did I get lucky? Yes. Was I right? Also, yes. Was playing the near +500 dog off (mostly) gut-feeling the right play? Alllllso, yes. Expected it to be a parlay buster and it surely was.

    Other parlay busting plays I've hit off the top of my head: Tito over Bader, KZ over Hominick, Lauzon over Guillard (had Guillard picked in that one but ended up betting Lauzon 'cos I couldn't pass on the value)

    Only really big juice MMA bet I recall losing: Barboza vs Varner (had him in a few parlays, minor loss.)
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  31. 03-30-13 12:28 PM #136
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    uh what about the ALL time great Daniel Sarafian??
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  32. 03-30-13 12:32 PM #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    uh what about the ALL time great Daniel Sarafian??
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  33. 03-30-13 01:43 PM #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    uh what about the ALL time great Daniel Sarafian??
    Oh yeah, because there was so much juice on him.

    lol there are no wmma fights being discussed here, wtf u doin in this thread
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  34. 03-30-13 01:48 PM #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Oh yeah, because there was so much juice on him.

    lol there are no wmma fights being discussed here, wtf u doin in this thread
    god dammit that cut so deep, you know were to hurt me gabe


    sider house rules is signing off
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  35. 03-30-13 08:49 PM #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by sideloaded View Post
    god dammit that cut so deep, you know were to hurt me gabe


    sider house rules is signing off
    just kidding brehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh juno 143
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