I agree with Crippler, Gabe & Sac...Rampage had only a FORMER-elite CURRENTLY-poorly-motivated payday-whore of a "puncher's chance"...he'd only win in a tiny handful of the hundred-hypothetical-universes (whether that be 5 or 10 makes an APPARENTLY large difference between +2000ish and +1000ish...but in fact it was a such a tiny enough % to mean that there was a huge value bulge on Tex)
Gabe had it right...Rampage only wins in those few simulations where Tex happens to walk into one of his hopeful haymakers
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to add further context, I had Hendo as having a much better puncher's chance to beat Machida, and Wanderlai as well to beat Stann
...these were real live dogs...Rampage just SEEMED like one...and therein lay the "value-bubble that wouldn't pop" or the "gift horse" price that people mistook as a "trap" and avoided