the MMA market is not even close to razor sharp yet...so you can't be afraid to just take the damn "gift horse" prices when it's there...
look at Burkman +230 last night and Shamalev over +200 a few weeks ago...and both Bader and Texeira lines were strongly undervalued in Rampage's last two fights, as was Machida against Hendo
to a much larger extent than major team sports...the MMA market is casual-fan driven, so "crowd psychology" perception can take prices further "off centre" and keep them there longer, cuz there's much less big, syndicated sharp money acting as a counter-weight
as an example...
even after Rampage broke the scale at weigh-in, his price didn't soften...so the bargain on Bader persisted...might have looked like a trap...but it wasn't...in an immature market like MMA, imperfections can and do exist, persist, and even intensify...that is great for us
if you are reasonably objective (aka. sharp) it's great that the MMA market is far from efficient...don't expect it to be, for quite a while yet...these are the golden days of MMA betting...without big organized sharp pools of cash to whittle down any shifts in value before you have a chance to even log into your book
for a major team-sport...if it looks to good to be true...it probably is...the market has lots of opportunistic sharp-money actively scavenging edges constantly...so the expression "the market has already discounted that" generally holds
but this is MMA...and VERY often the market price is surprisingly off-centre...presenting large gifts on one side
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So if it looks like dozens and dozens of points of value may be there on DeFries...they very well may be...cuz MMA--bless it's soul--is FAR from razor-sharp...
(and fading the Blackzillians--with the obvious exception of Rumble--is a nice additional +EV touch)