[Wanna Bet On It?]

I think you're the only person who thinks that.

From Sherdog:

Freddie DeFreitas scores the round 10-9 Le
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Le
Mike Whitman scores the round 10-9 Le

MMAJunkie:

MMAjunkie.comgives it to Le, 10-9.

USA Today:

I'd score round 1 for Cung.

MMA Weekly:

Le still did enough to take it on MMAWeekly’s scorecard.


Pretty much no one gave the first round to Wanderlei. I respect your opinion and all, but you're very wrong here in my, and most's, opinion.

Again, I'm scoring it based on what it *would* be with biased judging & crowd in Brazil not what it *should* be which is a 10-9 Le for his superior striking and control of the vast majority of the round.

The swarming attack by Wanderlei was enough to sway the live in-play odds to be 2:1 in Wanderlei's favour. Those odds don't specifically reflect their scoring of the round, although they may have felt that Wanderlei could've stolen it, but who is winning/losing in the three round fight.

Once Wanderlei started to come on strong at the end of that round, Cung being gassed, and then Wanderlei's pacing early in mid-round two, the fight heavily swung in Wanderlei's favour.

You can't possibly believe that Cung Le was clearly winning the fight up until Wanderlei's TKO at the end of round two. I'm sure the play-by-plays aren't going to back you up on that.

[DublinMeUp]

So does that mean, that 95% of the people that post on here that have not trained striking or grappling or both have no idea what they're talking about. Does that mean that countless successful cappers are profitable purely because of luck and not from watching tape and doing research/analysis on the basis that they don't train and therefore they would never be able to truly grasp what is happening or be able to accurately evaluate fights? I'm honestly just curious if this is what you actually believe, because you repeatedly keep bringing it up. Also if this is true then I guess everyone on here who doesn't train (which is the vast majority) except you are wasting their time doing this.

If someone else want to ask the same questions I would be glad to answer them. Go away.

Hey Defacto,

Hope all is well over the pond,

I'm gonna be the guy to re-ask this question, not because i want to join in on any argument or really get involved at all but purely because I want to here your real opinion on it and would have asked if i wasn't beaten to it. Considering I would be classed as one of the 95% yet i still think it is possible for people to cap profitably without any fight or training experience.

Just a small example would be the fact that i know of and have followed many successful football (soccer) and horse racing cappers that have never played or trained in football seriously or ridden / trained horses.

My opinion is that it all comes down to how intelligent a person is, how they perceive and use certain information and whether they posses a truly analytical mind (many think they do, most don't), oh and how hard they work also. But again that's my opinion only, so I'm interested in hearing it from your perspective.

Cheers mate

[Luca Fury]

Again, I'm scoring it based on what it *would* be with biased judging & crowd in Brazil not what it *should* be which is a 10-9 Le for his superior striking and control of the vast majority of the round.

The swarming attack by Wanderlei was enough to sway the live in-play odds to be 2:1 in Wanderlei's favour. Those odds don't specifically reflect their scoring of the round, although they may have felt that Wanderlei could've stolen it, but who is winning/losing in the three round fight.

Once Wanderlei started to come on strong at the end of that round, Cung being gassed, and then Wanderlei's pacing early in mid-round two, the fight heavily swung in Wanderlei's favour.

You can't possibly believe that Cung Le was clearly winning the fight up until Wanderlei's TKO at the end of round two. I'm sure the play-by-plays aren't going to back you up on that.

The second round was pretty even before the ending flurry. Here's PbP from Sherdog:

Round 2
The pace slows considerably at the start of the second, neither man committing to moving forward. Le takes the reins about 70 seconds in as he begins finding his range with punches and thudding kicks to the body. Midway through the round, Silva circles the outside, waiting to counter, and does find an opening to tag Le with a left. Le begins kicking at the legs of Silva, but stays in the pocket too long and eats a right hand. Silva chases Le down with another combination, then gets backed up by a side-kick. Silva checks a leg kick and backs out of the way as Le feints side-kicks. The Brazilian rushes Le on the fence and puts him in dire straits again with a right high kick, a vicious right hand and follow-up knees to the guts. Le survives on rubber legs and Silva grabs the Thai plum, busting Le’s nose with a knee to the face. Le bounces off the cage and drives forward for a single-leg, and Silva socks him with a few hammerfists before referee Dan Stell steps in for the TKO stoppage. Le’s nose is absolutely destroyed. Wanderlei Silva wins his first fight in 21 months at 4:49 of the second round.


That said, Le would have gone on to lose the fight. However, that's not the point. We know Le doesn't have a very good chin and gasses badly after about 1.5 rounds. The point is he was beating Wanderlei before the finish. Rich doesn't gas, so the second part of the Le fight doesn't mean much for Franklin/Silva 2.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Hey Defacto,

Hope all is well over the pond,

I'm gonna be the guy to re-ask this question, not because i want to join in on any argument or really get involved at all but purely because I want to here your real opinion on it and would have asked if i wasn't beaten to it. Considering I would be classed as one of the 95% yet i still think it is possible for people to cap profitably without any fight or training experience.

Hey Dublin, I have no problem sharing my opinion, especially considering I was the one who made the statement, I just feel that the fosho14 poster has it out for me and was looking to ask loaded questions ect.

I don't disagree with you at all, I just think that winning cappers are not as common as fosho14 was making it appear. Probably somewhere at about 1 in 100, but yet everyone on SBR is a winning capper?

There are only a few documented winners here over any significant period of time. Vaughany and Jesus Christ comes to mind. This does not mean that there aren't others with documented records, or that ones who don't keep records aren't "winning" cappers. But, it would not be logical to assume people are winners for no reason. Especially considering the sportsbooks are still in business.

Just a small example would be the fact that i know of and have followed many successful football (soccer) and horse racing cappers that have never played or trained in football seriously or ridden / trained horses.

If you could tell me the angles the cappers used. It is clearly possible to beat the lines using math alone, or a "system" based on pre existing data. But in this case I posted that video in response to Wannabet who based his "prediction" purely on technical analysis.

IMO, for someone to be able to offer technical analysis, you NEED to have some type of knowledge in regards to what you are talking about. Those types of videos come out because of things like this. You have people who never boxed in their life, never stepped into the gym, telling boxers/trainers/everyone that they are wrong, after having watched fights on TV.

What type of expert knowledge could you get from the same tapes that everyone else has seen? The same knowledge as everyone else. What Rogan says basically. When I watch the breakdowns of grappling in UFC fights by the gracie bros, I'm like shit, I didn't know that, Rogan didn't say that, I really only knew what was going on in that fight on a "superficial" level.

My opinion is that it all comes down to how intelligent a person is, how they perceive and use certain information and whether they posses a truly analytical mind (many think they do, most don't), oh and how hard they work also.

You hit the nail on the head here. I would also add discipline to the list. But really, how common are these people? If someone is highly intelligent and able to perceive things at an advanced level and just "decipher" things even though hey are new to them, they would probably be successful at anything they did.

But for your "average joe" to be able to beat lines being put out by books who have more knowledge, more resources, more money, not to mention the juice advantage? Because they "watched a lot of fights"? let's be realistic here, many of the people who say this don't even grasp basic concepts "handicapping".

[Wanna Bet On It?]

The second round was pretty even before the ending flurry. Here's PbP from Sherdog:

Round 2
The pace slows considerably at the start of the second, neither man committing to moving forward. Le takes the reins about 70 seconds in as he begins finding his range with punches and thudding kicks to the body. Midway through the round, Silva circles the outside, waiting to counter, and does find an opening to tag Le with a left. Le begins kicking at the legs of Silva, but stays in the pocket too long and eats a right hand. Silva chases Le down with another combination, then gets backed up by a side-kick. Silva checks a leg kick and backs out of the way as Le feints side-kicks. The Brazilian rushes Le on the fence and puts him in dire straits again with a right high kick, a vicious right hand and follow-up knees to the guts. Le survives on rubber legs and Silva grabs the Thai plum, busting Le’s nose with a knee to the face. Le bounces off the cage and drives forward for a single-leg, and Silva socks him with a few hammerfists before referee Dan Stell steps in for the TKO stoppage. Le’s nose is absolutely destroyed. Wanderlei Silva wins his first fight in 21 months at 4:49 of the second round.


That said, Le would have gone on to lose the fight. However, that's not the point. We know Le doesn't have a very good chin and gasses badly after about 1.5 rounds. The point is he was beating Wanderlei before the finish. Rich doesn't gas, so the second part of the Le fight doesn't mean much for Franklin/Silva 2.

Rich was gassed between rounds 1 & 2 in the Anderson Silva rematch from the flurry of knees, kicks and a devastating straight right that dropped him moments before the round ended and was saved by the bell. He had nothing for Silva at the beginning of round two. He tends to get trapped in the Thai plumm once he's pressured with strikes, then tries to pull his head backwards while Matt Hume is screaming to lean forwards to reduce the leverage of strikes.

Guess who just TKOed a guy with brilliant transitions from swarming strikes to Thai plumm knees and back to swarming strikes? Guess who's arguably the second best guy in the world at finishing guys with the clinch?

Rich's KB is so overrated. He keeps his hands so low, just asking to get KOed. A guy like Silva can exploit that with his counter hooks timed to Rich's kicks - and Wand has enough power to TKO Rich. While Wanderlei may have porous striking defence himself, it's only ever been a concern against KO artists. Time & time again he survives getting dropped/knocked off balance by guys of Rich's power or less. Seriously, Wanderlei does not feel threatened at all by Rich's power deeper into the fight. Case & point, Wanderlei waves the freaking crowd on with under a minute left in round three while Rich lands a knee on his chin and he keeps walking forwards.

Every single Brazilian that's fought Rich has TKOed him except Wanderlei at the absolute lowest point of his career, having lost by vicious KO to Rampage and getting sent down to MW for the first time in his career. His conditioning was awful for that fight with his old, broken nose and yet he really, really EASILY could have won the decision in that fight if scored in Brazil as it stands. Forget a small error like Wand winning round one on the scorecards until dropping for the guillotine at 0:50 left - these trivial actions change the course of a fight and make people think that Rich is a superior fighter rather than acknowledge that he got an insanely razor thin decision in Germany. The fans booed the decision for Rich, even though on the scorecards Rich probably stole the third round to seal the decision so it's not a scenario where one guy wins two rounds, gets his ass handed to him in the third and it looks like a robbery to the crowd (ex. MM/McCall I when announced). It was controversial to many scoring the fight.

While Wanderlei is still active and fresh in people's minds as a guy who's not the same as he once was, fighting just 6 months ago, Franklin has been out of commission with a serious injury and lost a fight before that against a very mediocre Forrest Griffin. It's as if people don't acknowledge that Rich is not the same guy that beat Tanner, Quarry, Loiseau, etc. People are fading Wandelei when Rich has more question marks in this fight.

Seriously, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. How do people not see how lacking in power Rich is relative to what power is needed to shut Wanderlei off? Wand has never been shown to be prone to TKO-type fighters. Even Rich's biggest claim to fame of a highlight KO, Nate Quarry, was setup by rocking, dropping, swarming, standing up, rocking, dropping, swarming Nate until he finally KOed him a minute later.

The odds are stacked for Wanderlei in the rematch.

[gabe]

You're either gonna bet on one guy who sucks now or another guy who sucks now, so why bet this fight at all? Just sit back and enjoy. Or laugh.

[lucKO]

did some research & I think the oddsmakers have it just about right. There's a much higher chance of wand getting t/ko'd than you are expecting. He even got rocked 2x by cung's spinning backfists- neither were that hard.

Although- If the wand that fought bisping shows up, he'll destroy rich.. but that's a big gamble

[fosho14]

You're either gonna bet on one guy who sucks now or another guy who sucks now, so why bet this fight at all? Just sit back and enjoy. Or laugh.

this ^

Surely there are better opportunities elsewhere no?

[Vaughany]

Obviously you're right, but that fight might not be the best example. From what I remember, that opener wasn't too far off.

Stephens was rocked by an overhand left and clearly lost the first round, barely edged out the second and was losing the third before landing his right hand. It's been awhile, but that's how I remember the third, could be wrong.

I wish I could remember who opened that line.

yeah ur right, I actually bet on Marcus in the end cos he hit +260 or something silly, and was feeling very happy as I thought Marcus was 2 rounds up going in to the third. It was sportsbook who opened it with Stephens as dog.

[DublinMeUp]

@defacto, yeah a lot of that makes sense.. in particular when i think about the main methods used for the football and horse guys, while there are a few who go on connections and/or their own "expertise" there are also a lot that use a systematic approach based on historic data etc.

Wouldn't myself be able to quote figures either but yeah I think we actually agree that a certain number of of people with no fight or training experience can and do cap profitably, your guess is as good as mine on the success rate though.

I suppose the parallel can't really be used as widely as i thought between football/racing and mma.

Its seems like a big grey area all said, some who have experience will be great and capping and breaking down fights while some won't and the same goes for those without the experience. We'll probably never really know which if, if any, "side" has the edge. Its a rather large topic when you really delve into it.

I'm going to continue, at least for now, on the assumption that i can find an edge somewhere , might be a fools errand but maybe not. Once i don't lose my bank in the process I'll be happy whatever way it goes.

Appreciate the reply

[DeFactoCrippler]

@defacto, yeah a lot of that makes sense.. in particular when i think about the main methods used for the football and horse guys, while there are a few who go on connections and/or their own "expertise" there are also a lot that use a systematic approach based on historic data etc.

Wouldn't myself be able to quote figures either but yeah I think we actually agree that a certain number of of people with no fight or training experience can and do cap profitably, your guess is as good as mine on the success rate though.

It's hard to know because not many keep records, and I don't blame them cause it's no in their best interests either way. This is another major advantage the books have, they have the actual market numbers not to mention the leans of the bettors they perceive as "sharp".

I'm obviously speculating here, but when we take Vaughany for example, he is arguably the most respected capper here, and his achievements are generally "revered" by all. I do not think this would be the case if it was a common occurrence.

I suppose the parallel can't really be used as widely as i thought between football/racing and mma.

I think cause MMA is such a new sport, and because of the dangers involved in it, that there huge amounts of "fans" that have no actual experience in the sport.

I cap baseball. If you look at the crowd of a baseball game most males have probably played the game before. I was just a casual player and must have played upwards of 1000 games throughout my youth. Not to mention all the hours spent practicing and drilling fundamentals of the game.

Does this play any major role in my capping? Not really. But at the same time I'm not trying to give detailed 20 minute analysis on something that I know very little about, despite my 1000's of hours playing the game. What if I tried to do that when never having picked up a baseball in my life?

It is the dunning-kreuger effect. Only complete ignorance can breed such confidence. I think the time I spent playing baseball has made me realize I don't know a damn thing compared to the announcers, let alone the "experts".

I think the problem lies in that impassioned MMA fans think that their passion translates to knowledge. Or fans think their passion translates into "special insight".

If you ask anyone here they will all tell you they have "special insight". "Special insight" is just another term for "gut feeling". This is how many of the cappers on SBR operate, which is fine, but a little strange when these same people accuse others of not having "critical analysis skills".

Its seems like a big grey area all said, some who have experience will be great and capping and breaking down fights while some won't and the same goes for those without the experience. We'll probably never really know which if, if any, "side" has the edge. Its a rather large topic when you really delve into it.

I'm going to continue, at least for now, on the assumption that i can find an edge somewhere , might be a fools errand but maybe not. Once i don't lose my bank in the process I'll be happy whatever way it goes.

Appreciate the reply

No problem, I'm not trying to discourage anyone, just paint what I feel is an accurate portrayal of things, imo. I notice how you didn't get upset by my comments, which shows a lot.

There definitely an edge to be found, you can tell people beating MMA because:

- many books ban MMA bettors even after short term wins
- ALL books limit openers to reduce their exposure which really shows a lot
- books constantly drop weak lines that market corrects. The line being discussed in this thread basically flipped which is really unheard of in baseball for example.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

You're either gonna bet on one guy who sucks now or another guy who sucks now, so why bet this fight at all? Just sit back and enjoy. Or laugh.

And yet that has nothing to do with +EV betting. That's already incorporated into the model.

Your chain of logic is simply incorrect. Does that then imply that Rashad Evans, who is the #2 LHW in the world, would by default be a better bet at +400 vs Jones than a "shot" fighter like Wanderlei at +150 against a sucky opponent like Rich? It doesn't matter how much someone has regressed as long as they have X% to win the matchup due to a stylistic advantage and X > than current odds.

More specifically, you need to stratify what area the sucky fighter sucks in. If it was Vitor, Stann or Lombard, I would fade Wanderlei as that plays directly in his area of vulnerability. Yet fading Wanderlei on an every-fight basis hereonin simply because his speed, killer instinct & striking defence have regressed since his PRIDE days is foolish. That needs to be assessed on a matchup-by-matchup basis.

I know a LOT of people have gotten burned lately betting foolishly on and then against Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ +140 vs Leben and got bet down to -200. People didn't acknowledge the stylistic clash of a brawler with power in Leben vs Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ -115 vs Cung and got faded to +191. People didn't acknowledge the resiliency of Wanderlei versus a flashy striker with brilliant spinning back kicks, wheel kicks, spinning back fists, axe kicks, etc. that isn't known to KO a guy with a single strike and tends to fade by having such a high work rate versus a resilient fighter that can weather the storm and then find openings to counter.

The public has gotten slaughtered now twice. Wanderlei opened up -145 vs Rich and has been faded to +150. I'm willing to bet that the public will get slaughtered a third time by betting up Rich.

Rich has few tools to KO Wanderlei. His most powerful strike IMO is his LHK, which arguably stunned Wanderlei in round two despite it being partially blocked. However it's very telegraphed, has never gotten it off cleanly versus anyone, and is vulnerable to a counter overhand right or hook by Wanderlei and Rich knows to tread cautiously so I'm not going to let fear of an unlikely KO strike trump the implied percentages here. Rich threw knees and straight punches which did nothing to rock/hurt Wanderlei. I still have supreme confidence in Wanderlei's resiliency which has never waned. That will be huge in this fight.

[Grabaka]

I agree with you wanna bet. This is a +EV bet but not by that much. It grants a bet on Wandy IMO but it cant be a big one. We have way too many questionmarks and ways that this fight could end.
Anyway....GL to both of us.

[gabe]

And yet that has nothing to do with +EV betting. That's already incorporated into the model.

Your chain of logic is simply incorrect. Does that then imply that Rashad Evans, who is the #2 LHW in the world, would by default be a better bet at +400 vs Jones than a "shot" fighter like Wanderlei at +150 against a sucky opponent like Rich? It doesn't matter how much someone has regressed as long as they have X% to win the matchup due to a stylistic advantage and X > than current odds.

More specifically, you need to stratify what area the sucky fighter sucks in. If it was Vitor, Stann or Lombard, I would fade Wanderlei as that plays directly in his area of vulnerability. Yet fading Wanderlei on an every-fight basis hereonin simply because his speed, killer instinct & striking defence have regressed since his PRIDE days is foolish. That needs to be assessed on a matchup-by-matchup basis.

I know a LOT of people have gotten burned lately betting foolishly on and then against Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ +140 vs Leben and got bet down to -200. People didn't acknowledge the stylistic clash of a brawler with power in Leben vs Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ -115 vs Cung and got faded to +191. People didn't acknowledge the resiliency of Wanderlei versus a flashy striker with brilliant spinning back kicks, wheel kicks, spinning back fists, axe kicks, etc. that isn't known to KO a guy with a single strike and tends to fade by having such a high work rate versus a resilient fighter that can weather the storm and then find openings to counter.

The public has gotten slaughtered now twice. Wanderlei opened up -145 vs Rich and has been faded to +150. I'm willing to bet that the public will get slaughtered a third time by betting up Rich.

Rich has few tools to KO Wanderlei. His most powerful strike IMO is his LHK, which arguably stunned Wanderlei in round two despite it being partially blocked. However it's very telegraphed, has never gotten it off cleanly versus anyone, and is vulnerable to a counter overhand right or hook by Wanderlei and Rich knows to tread cautiously so I'm not going to let fear of an unlikely KO strike trump the implied percentages here. Rich threw knees and straight punches which did nothing to rock/hurt Wanderlei. I still have supreme confidence in Wanderlei's resiliency which has never waned. That will be huge in this fight.

I don't think either of those guys are trustworthy to wager on. If you're gonna bet on anyone, Franklin is probably the way to go, only because he won't accept a fight unless he's sure he could win. Only other people he has said he would fight within the last 12 months were Lil Nog and Tito.

Then Le, now Silva... All easy opponents he's confident he could beat.

BTW- You're saying you're counting on Wanderlei's resiliency when most believe believe he is no longer resilient.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I don't think either of those guys are trustworthy to wager on. If you're gonna bet on anyone, Franklin is probably the way to go, only because he won't accept a fight unless he's sure he could win. Only other people he has said he would fight within the last 12 months were Lil Nog and Tito.

Then Le, now Silva... All easy opponents he's confident he could beat.

BTW- You're saying you're counting on Wanderlei's resiliency when most believe believe he is no longer resilient.

Most people are stupid. I've already proven that twice and look forward to a third time in 10 days. Name me one time where Wanderlei's resiliency has failed him late in his career. Once.

I don't bet on what "most people" believe. I bet on what I believe. My beliefs are sourced from actual footage not circulating myths in the media & message boards.

And LOL @ Franklin only taking fights against people whom he thought he could beat. He thought he could beat Forrest. How did that turn out? He thought he could beat Hendo, Anderson in a rematch, etc. He certainly thinks he can beat Wanderlei; after all, he's narrowly done it once. What he fails to see is the vast difference between that fight and this one. He, more or less, admitted such during his interview with Ariel Helwani. Ariel probed him on his brutal recovery from labral surgery, ring rust, how he's close to retirement, fighting in Brazil in enemy territory, and having to go 5 rounds after training for 3 up until a few weeks ago. Nothing I heard in that interview concerned me in the least about Rich sounding strong in this matchup. Rich might *think* he can beat Wanderlei. I've won online poker tournaments with hundreds of players before. I'm sure I can win again. Doesn't make it so...

[DeFactoCrippler]

Most people are stupid.

This is exactly what I've been trying say all along, you don't seem to get it.

I don't bet on what "most people" believe. I bet on what I believe. My beliefs are sourced from actual footage not circulating myths in the media & message boards.

You mean you bet on what feeling emanates from your tiny little nuts? I think this is what everyone is afraid of, you are creating myths yourself! Here is an equation strait from the Steve Nash Statistical Model that might help out

darts + sportspage > you

[Beelzebubzy]

Kevin Nash

[Vaughany]

haha

[gabe]

So, I guess the play here is Rich Franklin, guys?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

This is exactly what I've been trying say all along, you don't seem to get it.



You mean you bet on what feeling emanates from your tiny little nuts? I think this is what everyone is afraid of, you are creating myths yourself! Here is an equation strait from the Steve Nash Statistical Model that might help out

darts + sportspage > you

Sorry "Steve Nash", my long-term returns have far exceeded that of the average gambler who is no better than throwing darts and, at best, has enough BR management skills to slowly piss away their money to vig.

You can keep questioning, denying and hating on my MMA betting knowledge/success but being able to quadruple a bankroll in <3 years proves otherwise. You seem to take offense to pencil-necked egg-heads who can make (more) money at a discipline than people who eaty/sleepy/trainy MMA. Dat dere is just not fair.

The heavens bless some people with brains. Others with brawn. Rarely both. Brains > brawn even when engaging in brain-related brawn tasks like betting MMA fights.







Deal With It

[DeFactoCrippler]

You can keep questioning, denying and hating on my MMA betting knowledge/success but being able to quadruple a bankroll in <3 years proves otherwise.

Hey bro, you can triple $100 a lot quicker than three years no?

You seem to take offense to pencil-necked egg-heads who can make (more) money at a discipline than people who eaty/sleepy/trainy MMA. Dat dere is just not fair.

Lol, you are a geek, but that doesn't make you intelligent. Just a geek who watches tons of fights. I tried to have an INTELLIGENT convo with you but had to quote about ten of my own posts because you were acting like a child. So I'm back to trolling you.

Deal with it.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Hey bro, you can triple $100 a lot quicker than three years no?



Lol, you are a geek, but that doesn't make you intelligent. Just a geek who watches tons of fights. I tried to have an INTELLIGENT convo with you but had to quote about ten of my own posts because you were acting like a child. So I'm back to trolling you.

Deal with it.

Fair enough. And I'm back to ignoring you. Enjoy!

[DeFactoCrippler]

Fair enough. And I'm back to ignoring you. Enjoy!

Thats cool. My responses to you were more for the enjoyment of others.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

For the record, I wasn't acting like a child. You were acting like a child, criticizing my insight since I happened to mention the similarities of public misconception with KZ in another recent +EV bet and then chose to diminish valid points I made based on evidence with stupid shit like "Wanderlei doesn't have a shot chin because KZ won".

But, whatever, I'm cool with you going back to trolling. Ain't no thang. It'll save me from pissing away hours of time debating nonsense in the long run...

[DeFactoCrippler]

For the record, I wasn't acting like a child. You were acting like a child, criticizing my insight since I happened to mention the similarities of public misconception with KZ in another recent +EV bet and then chose to diminish valid points I made based on evidence with stupid shit like "Wanderlei doesn't have a shot chin because KZ won".

This is what you said.

All I can say is that I don't feel this confident and this contrarian to "conventional wisdom" since everyone was telling me that my critical analysis of Dustin Poirier vs Korean Zombie was completely off and Poirier would outclass KZ everywhere.

What VALID points have you made? Everyone in this thread thinks you're nuts. But you don't care because "You were right about KZ and everybody was wrong".

The fact you cannot see that this is a logical fallacy is why you are stupid. The fact that mention this when your "critical analysis" of Jim Miller and Brookins was so dead wrong it would offset whatever happened in the KZ fight means you are a hypocrite.

I could have brought up your recent history of horrible blunders in the first place in order to try and "win" a "debate", lol, but I guess I'm not intelligent enough to use logical fallacies in my argument like you!

[Kaladarus]

Almost everything is explained in these 3 videos not sure why this has 4 pages.

The only thing you have forgot to take into account is Wanderlei's Pride fights. According to Chael Sonnen the refs had the fix in with the ear pieces. This has yet to be confirmed, but if all of Wanderlei's Pride wins weren't legitimate his record and impressive punching power might not be what we make it out to be.

[Grabaka]

Sonnen is trolling on that one. Nobody would "act" and throw the fights in that devastating fashion. If you get a check to throw the fight...would you make it look more real taking a knee to your nose?

[Luca Fury]

The thing that sucks about this is if Wanna Bet is wrong here, everyone will jump on his back for being 1-3 in his video series picks. Thing is, when you use the strategy he does, you lose a lot. You also win a god amount too, though, and since you're betting underdogs a lot, you still make profit in the end. But since he's only selecting one play per card for the videos, the odds of him having a good record in them aren't great. So, his pick record in these videos will not be a proper representation of his gambling skills.

Hope other people realize this and don't hate on him.

[omalley21]

Great video and analysis. I agree. Spot on about the standups in vitor vs rumble, the judging in stout v tavares, and the energy in the brazilian crowd. Wanderlei is a warrior, very tough to finish.. He's been training to fight his nemesis Vitor in brazil, hes gonna be in great shape. Franklin was saying he shouldnt have taken this fight, his prep was cut short, he was training for the opposite style matchup. Everything points toward Wanderlei.

[Vitooch]

Anthony Johnson seemed completely out of shaped and gassed in that fight from the beginning. He was able to manage a few takedowns, but while on top, he was clearly stalling. The refs were correct for noticing his blatant inactivity and standing them up.

The Stout/Tavares fight was very close. I wouldn't call it anything close to a robbery. The Franklin/Silva fight will probably not be this close. I don't think the judges will give the fight to Silva if Franklin wins rounds convincingly.

[GunShard]

The thing that sucks about this is if Wanna Bet is wrong here, everyone will jump on his back for being 1-3 in his video series picks. Thing is, when you use the strategy he does, you lose a lot. You also win a god amount too, though, and since you're betting underdogs a lot, you still make profit in the end. But since he's only selecting one play per card for the videos, the odds of him having a good record in them aren't great. So, his pick record in these videos will not be a proper representation of his gambling skills.

Hope other people realize this and don't hate on him.

That's why everyone should use the SBR spreadsheet because the net profit at the bottom right can tell if your bets are making profit. A gambler can go 15 wins 20 losses and still make profit as long those bets were on underdogs.

[fosho14]

wanna bet, please keep making videos and ignore the haters dude. Regardless of whether I agree with your thoughts or not it's obviously helpful to get more depth and insight on things in order to make decisions opposed to nothing at all. A lot of people don't seem to get that... the more information the better.

[Vaughany]

Sonnen is trolling on that one. Nobody would "act" and throw the fights in that devastating fashion. If you get a check to throw the fight...would you make it look more real taking a knee to your nose?

One of the things tht SOnnen said that made it less like he was trolling was that it was only ever one of the 2 fighters that were told to go easy on the other. So likes of Cro-Cop had no idea that his opponent had been given X amount of dollars to be a chump in there. So I see what ur saying..why would Wanderlei's opponent take such a devastating beating if they were throwing the fight?

[DeFactoCrippler]

The thing that sucks about this is if Wanna Bet is wrong here, everyone will jump on his back for being 1-3 in his video series picks. Thing is, when you use the strategy he does, you lose a lot. You also win a god amount too, though, and since you're betting underdogs a lot, you still make profit in the end. But since he's only selecting one play per card for the videos, the odds of him having a good record in them aren't great. So, his pick record in these videos will not be a proper representation of his gambling skills.

So in other words you are saying he is a spot better who picks bad "spots", but this isn't an accurate representation of his "gambling skills".

What are "gambling skills" then exactly?

Hope other people realize this and don't hate on him.

People have hated on him since his first video, including myself, and it will probably continue for a number of reasons.

1. Lets be honest, he is kind of a "phaget", lol.

2. He is TOUTING, plain and simple. People hated Brandon Lang and Stu Feiner and this kid is no different. Except they at least were doing it for profit, he is just doing it for attention and so people will say "wow you are such a skilled capper!". Jesus, the kid had three focking props in his last video, pimp cup, wrestler mask glasses, and he sits there and writes a focking script for the thing. Seriously?

3. He has no clue what is talking about. If we "critically analyse" not just the results of his videos, but how he arrives at his conclusions, this would be clear. He has made three videos so far, the first he picked Jim Miller. His "critical analysis" was completely wrong, every word. Honestly, if he had any respect for himself he would have stopped making videos then. He picked Brookins and his analysis was once again dead wrong. But wait, he was on KZ! All he did was trash Poirer's opponents for 20 mins.

It's easy to throw darts and state "points" to support where the dart hits. If he loses this bet, he will be 1-3, a losing spot better, and he will have lost the biggest side bet he has made in his life ($300).

The only reason I say this is because nobody else will. Many here like to gently stroke each others limp dicks between their thumb and forefinger whispering "we are the smart money" while firing off air bets.

If these guys are so ballin, why don't Wannabet and Fosho14 buy those bouncing castles from Gabe and get them out on the water. Get a flotilla going down to costa rica so the two of them can walk right into the office at 5dimes and tell Tony "Look, we will settle for half of what we were going to hit you for this year right now.". They can even pick up Loshak on the way down.

[Vaughany]

The only reason I say this is because nobody else will. Many here like to gently stroke each others limp dicks between their thumb and forefinger whispering "we are the smart money" while firing off air bets.

If these guys are so ballin, why don't Wannabet and Fosho14 buy those bouncing castles from Gabe and get them out on the water. Get a flotilla going down to costa rica so the two of them can walk right into the office at 5dimes and tell Tony "Look, we will settle for half of what we were going to hit you for this year right now.". They can even pick up Loshak on the way down.