Originally posted on 06/13/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
You're either gonna bet on one guy who sucks now or another guy who sucks now, so why bet this fight at all? Just sit back and enjoy. Or laugh.
And yet that has nothing to do with +EV betting. That's already incorporated into the model.

Your chain of logic is simply incorrect. Does that then imply that Rashad Evans, who is the #2 LHW in the world, would by default be a better bet at +400 vs Jones than a "shot" fighter like Wanderlei at +150 against a sucky opponent like Rich? It doesn't matter how much someone has regressed as long as they have X% to win the matchup due to a stylistic advantage and X > than current odds.

More specifically, you need to stratify what area the sucky fighter sucks in. If it was Vitor, Stann or Lombard, I would fade Wanderlei as that plays directly in his area of vulnerability. Yet fading Wanderlei on an every-fight basis hereonin simply because his speed, killer instinct & striking defence have regressed since his PRIDE days is foolish. That needs to be assessed on a matchup-by-matchup basis.

I know a LOT of people have gotten burned lately betting foolishly on and then against Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ +140 vs Leben and got bet down to -200. People didn't acknowledge the stylistic clash of a brawler with power in Leben vs Wanderlei.

Wanderlei opened up @ -115 vs Cung and got faded to +191. People didn't acknowledge the resiliency of Wanderlei versus a flashy striker with brilliant spinning back kicks, wheel kicks, spinning back fists, axe kicks, etc. that isn't known to KO a guy with a single strike and tends to fade by having such a high work rate versus a resilient fighter that can weather the storm and then find openings to counter.

The public has gotten slaughtered now twice. Wanderlei opened up -145 vs Rich and has been faded to +150. I'm willing to bet that the public will get slaughtered a third time by betting up Rich.

Rich has few tools to KO Wanderlei. His most powerful strike IMO is his LHK, which arguably stunned Wanderlei in round two despite it being partially blocked. However it's very telegraphed, has never gotten it off cleanly versus anyone, and is vulnerable to a counter overhand right or hook by Wanderlei and Rich knows to tread cautiously so I'm not going to let fear of an unlikely KO strike trump the implied percentages here. Rich threw knees and straight punches which did nothing to rock/hurt Wanderlei. I still have supreme confidence in Wanderlei's resiliency which has never waned. That will be huge in this fight.