[PunisherIND]

where the F are the prop lines???

[danso]

I see that 5dimes has props up for Ellenberger/Kampman fight.
They have Ellenberger ITD @ +107. And also offer Not Ellenberger TKO/KO @+100.

Looks like an easy arb, but I'm guessing the bets would get cancelled if made?

[NunyaBidness]

I see that 5dimes has props up for Ellenberger/Kampman fight.
They have Ellenberger ITD @ +107. And also offer Not Ellenberger TKO/KO @+100.

Looks like an easy arb, but I'm guessing the bets would get cancelled if made?

Who cares about the cheeseburger money. One of these props is mispriced, or at least one of them is MORE mispriced. Decide which one it is and pound it.

[gabe]

Who cares about the cheeseburger money. One of these props is mispriced, or at least one of them is MORE mispriced. Decide which one it is and pound it.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Yea fuk that CHEESEBURGER money. You need to get that ASSBURGERS money, son.

[DublinMeUp]

I see that 5dimes has props up for Ellenberger/Kampman fight.
They have Ellenberger ITD @ +107. And also offer Not Ellenberger TKO/KO @+100.

Looks like an easy arb, but I'm guessing the bets would get cancelled if made?

Ellenberger ITD drifted to +121

[illmatick]

Decent breakdowns from Danny boy Downes.

Justin Lawrence vs John Cofer

The main card kicks off with a bout between Justin “The American Kid” Lawrence and John Cofer. The number one pick overall, Lawrence was an early favorite to win the whole thing. In addition to hubris, Lawrence has tremendous power in his hands that earned him two first round knockouts before losing to Michael Chiesa. John Cofer has a wrestling pedigree that earned him a ticket into the house, but it couldn’t get him past Vinc Pichel in episode seven. His last “official” fight took place in October at something called “Masquerade Fight Party” which interestingly enough was also what I lobbied the St. Ignatius College Prep Student Council to make the theme of our senior prom.

Lawrence likes to throw big, single shots that look for the knockout every time. This strategy usually spells doom for someone facing a wrestler, but it shouldn’t come into play in this fight. Cofer slowly marches forward in his standup, which is exactly what an aggressive striker like Lawrence wants. The American Kid finishes this one in the first.

Max Holloway vs Pat Schilling

We drop down a weight class for a featherweight contest as Max Holloway takes on “Thrilling” Pat Schilling. Both had rough introductions to the UFC, losing via first round submission. The 20 year old Holloway held his own against Dustin Poirier (well at least for two minutes...) before getting caught in a triangle armbar while Schilling fell victim to a first round rear naked choke from Daniel Pineda.

Both fighters haven’t really given us much to see in their early careers. Our best bet is to look at their past resumés. Schilling has finished all his opponents in his victories, but those opponents have a combined record of 14-31. Basically this one boils down to the fact that Holloway will be too explosive for Schilling to handle and this one ends with a TKO in the second round. On the bright side, Schilling still has his full time job at Best Buy to go back to, so I’m sure he has a pretty sweet home theater to watch future UFC events.

Jonathan Brookins vs Charles Oliveira

We stay in the featherweight division as The Ultimate Fighter season 12 winner Jonathan Brookins faces the always exciting Charles Oliveira. Brookins rebounded from his loss to Erik Koch in November nicely with a first round knockout of Vagner Rocha in February. Oliveira is coming off a first round submission win over Eric Wisely. He accomplished the feat with the rarely seen calf cutter, which is also the number one piece of farm equipment on veal farms.

Known for his wrestling, Brookins’ takedown ability has not been impressive in previous fights against Koch and Michael Johnson. What he has been able to do, though, is grind opponents and control them on the fence. It doesn’t always make for the most exciting fights, but it’s still been effective. This tactic continues as Brookins will be able to control Oliveira’s explosiveness and take this one by unanimous decision. Sure it won’t be terribly exciting, but life could be worse. You could be confined in a small room, fed until you’re plump and soft and rarely move or get physical activity. Now that I think about it, veal has a lot in common with a few kids in my freshman dorm...

Michael Chiesa vs Al Iaquinta

That brings us to The Ultimate Fighter Finale, as Michael “Maverick” Chiesa looks to get that six-figure UFC contract by taking on Serra-Longo Fight Team product Al Iaquinta. Chiesa brought some actual reality to reality TV after losing his father in the second episode. Al Iaquinta didn’t have that level of emotion (or any for that matter) on the show. He’s what Robocop would have looked/sounded like if the movie was set in Long Island.

Chiesa has been the surprise of the season. He’s a durable fighter that has had a couple come from behind victories on his way to the finals. His strength is on the ground, where he can utilize solid submission skills. Iaquinta is a heavy handed striker that can mix both the punches and kicks in his repertoire. The difference here is strength. Not only does Iaquinta hit harder, but I think he’s too big and strong for Chiesa to get him to the ground. Iaquinta will tag Chiesa, who has shown a solid chin, but all that will crash in the third as Iaquinta becomes the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Live. When asked what it feels like to win the competition, I anticipate him saying something like, “it’s pretty cool.”

Jake Ellenberger vs Martin Kampmann

We now come to the main event of the evening, as Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger looks to grab a number one contender spot as he squares off against Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann. Both fighters are coming off victories, but in less than impressive fashion. After taking the first two rounds convincingly, Ellenberger gassed in the third and barely scraped by Diego Sanchez at UFC on Fuel TV in February. Martin Kampmann was behind on many expert score sheets (including yours truly’s) before locking in a late guillotine on Thiago Alves.

Kampmann’s plan here should be to stay on the outside and soften Ellenberger up with kicks and punches, then take him into the later rounds and see if his conditioning has improved. Unfortunately for him I don’t see that happening. Looking back on “The Hitman’s” last three fights, his defense has been extremely porous as of late. That means he’s been getting hit a lot. I see this fight going to the second round, where Kampmann will crowd his range, get clipped with a big uppercut and then get finished on the ground. Then, in the post fight interview, Ellenberger will cement his shot against the Condit/GSP winner by yelling this.


That wraps up another edition of the Downes Side. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @dannyboydownes and check out my blog here. Also, be sure to leave questions, comments, and queries here on the page and I might even respond (lucky you).

[DeFactoCrippler]

^^^ didntread.jpg

Everyone on SBR knows fighters dont know shit about breaking down fights.

[FreddDS]

^^^ didntread.jpg

Everyone on SBR knows fighters dont know shit about breaking down fights.

I guess you never read or heard about any of Danny Downes predictions then. He's actually really good, and has even nailed it on the head, with full cards in the past. He definitely knows what he's talking about, and brings a great insight about each fight in my opinion.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I guess you never read or heard about any of Danny Downes predictions then. He's actually really good, and has even nailed it on the head, with full cards in the past. He definitely knows what he's talking about, and brings a great insight about each fight in my opinion.

I was being sarcastic because people on SBR said fighters know nothing about analysing fights.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I was being sarcastic because people on SBR said fighters know nothing about analysing fights.

ahhhhhhhh shut up and get ya fuckinnn' shine box.... spit shine tommy...

[DeFactoCrippler]

ahhhhhhhh shut up and get ya fuckinnn' shine box.... spit shine tommy...

He make em look like fokin MIRRORS

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Wow. Danny Downes has pretty eloquent & well thought out predictions. Most fighters are terribly biased/clouded in their judgment (Brazilians backing fellow countrymen, wrestlers picking wrestlers, strikers picking strikers, etc.) but I guess because Danny sucks at every discipline, he doesn't discriminate. The dude does have heart... and brains (Purdue alum IIRC).

I could see him going 5/5.

[illmatick]

but I guess because Danny sucks at every discipline, he doesn't discriminate.

I've been a fan of Danny ever since he cashed a nice +250 ticket for me against his fellow scrub, Tiequan Zhang.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Wow. Danny Downes has pretty eloquent & well thought out predictions. Most fighters are terribly biased/clouded in their judgment (Brazilians backing fellow countrymen, wrestlers picking wrestlers, strikers picking strikers, etc.) but I guess because Danny sucks at every discipline, he doesn't discriminate. The dude does have heart... and brains (Purdue alum IIRC).

I could see him going 5/5.

Wait a minute, are you saying Bigday is BIASED!!1!1!

But on a serious note you have to understand that when questioned what is a fighter supposed to say when asked about his friend or partner. "Yeah I trained with the guy and he has no foking shot".

So don't look to the pick itself but technical analysis and things like that. Also, I personally ignore anything a brazilian has to say as a general rule.

[Tyslice]

here is my breakdown MMA fight breakdowns and commentary

as far as bets go i would parlay:
Heat +2.5
Ellenberger -200
Jury -325
Holloway -110

$20 to win $122.98

[Oblivian]

Wow. Danny Downes has pretty eloquent & well thought out predictions. Most fighters are terribly biased/clouded in their judgment (Brazilians backing fellow countrymen, wrestlers picking wrestlers, strikers picking strikers, etc.) but I guess because Danny sucks at every discipline, he doesn't discriminate. The dude does have heart... and brains (Purdue alum IIRC).

I could see him going 5/5.

Marquette University actually. He was in a fake major too. "International Affairs and Germans". If he went to Purdue, I'd likely have fought him at a bar.

[gabe]

Marquette University actually. He was in a fake major too. "International Affairs and Germans". If he went to Purdue, I'd likely have fought him at a bar.

you pick on the little guys?

[Beelzebubzy]

1.5u Al -220
1u Aloe Vera -200
.5 Schilling EV

out on Schilling due to alot of people swaying my opinion
Lose .1u on Schilling if he loses.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Ticket#:70426062 Jun 01 10:20 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 30 05:52 PM	MU	STRAIGHT BET [24310] A IAQUINTA -300 (M CHIESA vrs A IAQUINTA)	300 / 100
Ticket#:70426499 Jun 01 10:20 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 30 05:59 PM	MU	STRAIGHT BET [24310] A IAQUINTA -300 (M CHIESA vrs A IAQUINTA)	150 / 50

Ticket#:70424472 Jun 01 09:05 PM

INTERNET / -1

May 30 05:15 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24321] J COFER +280 (J COFER vrs J LAWRENCE)

25 / 70

Ticket#:70474562 Jun 01 06:30 PM

INTERNET / -1

Jun 01 12:00 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24341] E PEREZ +180 (E PEREZ vrs J ALBERT)

50 / 90

-------------------------------------

Unfortunately I was a dumb ass and predicted the wrong line movement for AL, when -300 opened on my book I thought it was good and that his line would only get worse, did not expect chiesa to get so much action. Really gonna regret it if I lose because that is about a bill I could have saved had I waited for this play!!!

Initially I was liking albert, but after researching that fight its a lot closer than I think the line reflects. I think Albert is the rightful favorite, but I wouldn't put him above -145, therefore I saw good value in Perez as I'm hoping it will be close.

Think I might add brookins if one of my dogs come through, and if AL comes through I might risk those winnings on a SU for ellenberger.

GL today everyone

[MMAbetMASTA]

Yea fuk that CHEESEBURGER money. You need to get that ASSBURGERS money, son.

"I hate yo black skin... I hate the back of Forrest Whitaker's neck, and I hate that black bastard Wesley Snipes.. And I hate whoopi Goldberg's lips, cuz they black too!!!"

haha that movie has so many good one liners...

[MMAbetMASTA]

Michael Chiesa vs Al Iaquinta

That brings us to The Ultimate Fighter Finale, as Michael “Maverick” Chiesa looks to get that six-figure UFC contract by taking on Serra-Longo Fight Team product Al Iaquinta. Chiesa brought some actual reality to reality TV after losing his father in the second episode. Al Iaquinta didn’t have that level of emotion (or any for that matter) on the show. He’s what Robocop would have looked/sounded like if the movie was set in Long Island.

Chiesa has been the surprise of the season. He’s a durable fighter that has had a couple come from behind victories on his way to the finals. His strength is on the ground, where he can utilize solid submission skills. Iaquinta is a heavy handed striker that can mix both the punches and kicks in his repertoire. The difference here is strength. Not only does Iaquinta hit harder, but I think he’s too big and strong for Chiesa to get him to the ground. Iaquinta will tag Chiesa, who has shown a solid chin, but all that will crash in the third as Iaquinta becomes the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Live. When asked what it feels like to win the competition, I anticipate him saying something like, “it’s pretty cool.”

HAHAHAAAAAAAA... that's so true...

[Oblivian]

you pick on the little guys?

At that point in time, I probably only weighed around 165 lbs as a sloppy drunk. I don't think I was picking on anyone, but I was damn good at making an ass out of myself and getting into fights.

[Beelzebubzy]

Props up.

[PunisherIND]

Props up.

yessir!

[The HOFF]

So the SBR sportsbook has lowered the MMA wagering to 100 points? What a joke. Who's the a-hole that raped the book for thousands of points and did this to everyone else? I think we can all safely assume it's Vaughany.

[NunyaBidness]

So the SBR sportsbook has lowered the MMA wagering to 100 points? What a joke. Who's the a-hole that raped the book for thousands of points and did this to everyone else? I think we can all safely assume it's Vaughany.

I think its 100 on what they think is the undercard and 250 on the main.

[Educ8d Degener8]

1.00u Iaquinta -265 / Not Brookins ITD -530
0.25u Kampmann by split or maj dec +1945
0.25u Iaquinta -265 / Holloway -125 / Cruickshank -185 / Ellenberger ITD +109
0.13u Cofer by dec +625

GL ladies.

[spargament]

So the SBR sportsbook has lowered the MMA wagering to 100 points? What a joke. Who's the a-hole that raped the book for thousands of points and did this to everyone else? I think we can all safely assume it's Vaughany.

Most likely.

I mean it's not a surprise considering we haven't ever been able to parlay these.

[Vitooch]

Anyone know when the prelims start?

EDIT: nvm, 630

[Crassus]

^^^ didntread.jpg

Everyone on SBR knows fighters dont know shit about breaking down fights.

[Vitooch]

Lots of late action on Tickle...getting worried

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Only betas worry about late action. Alphas double down.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Only betas worry about late action. Alphas double down.

ALPHAS move the line. The line doesn't move against them.

[Vaughany]

So the SBR sportsbook has lowered the MMA wagering to 100 points? What a joke. Who's the a-hole that raped the book for thousands of points and did this to everyone else? I think we can all safely assume it's Vaughany.

haha I actually haven't used the sbr sportsbook in months, at least for mma anyway! Think it's jus the new dude being overly cautious about their precious virtual points!