[sirchadwick1]

Chiesa has come through for me twice as a dog so far... but I think I'll put the brakes on here. That is unless he hits around +250.

Oliveira at anything better than -200 seems solid.

[Vitooch]

Very pangry I didn't pull the trigger when Oliveira was -165...I'm afraid he will stay in that -200 range. I still may play him but alot more hesitant.

[Beelzebubzy]

1.5u Al -220
1u Aloe Vera -200
.5 Schilling EV

[Vaughany]

Surprised he had so much trouble taking Pichel down....will have to rewatch fight

Pichel is big and strong, Cofer doesnt seem very strong, and a lot of guys in those fights made bad decisions...although mostly guys on Cruz's team who didnt listen to instructions

[MMAbetMASTA]

IDK, personally got a few things in mind. What were u thinking of slamming masta?

What are YOU thinking???

haha, nothing special I'm just playing around...Wish I had a big play I've been wanting one since my big loss from palhares (unfortunately didn't put more faith / stacked more on teixeira last week), so I honestly don't plan to slam anything...

Was hoping jury was gonna be lower (I think this is someone who I'm sure a few of us had an eye on, and were also prob hoping for a lower line considering his lackluster performance in the show), but even at -250 ish its a little enticing... I think he is better than saunders anywhere this fight goes, complete advantages all over saunders entire game imo (some might argue that saunders has better kickboxing but I am not too impressed, but I could be underestimating it due to the little I've seen of saunders outside of tuf). But if jury gets at -300 or larger I def won't be playing him. Yet at under -300 I think a guy who I feel is better everywhere is a worthy play... Saunders backers why you like him over jury???

Its no secret that people are liking AL... I know I do and will prob pay the juice on him when he opens on my book (assuming he doesn't get too high up), but yea like jury I think he has chiesa beat almost everywhere outside of jitz... And I don't think chisea's sloppy tds will get it down unless al wants it to or al gasses ( it seems two of chisea's opponents did gas therefore giving him the ability to get it down to the mat and keep it there, coming back from behind to win the fights..). I don't think al will gas, I think he'll bust up chisea on the feet for the first round and most of 2nd, then maybe go for some tds / clinch wars once they are both a little more tired and wet. I just can't see chisea winning unless a freak submission from a gassed al, which I really can't see happening. Al looked strong against jury even in the 3rd round and I think he'll stay strong against chisea... Chiesa's striking is hideous yet somehow he lands!!! AL seems like an intelligent striker so I really think he's gonna bust him up on the feet and toss him aside in the clinch to keep it upright... However, this season of tuf has shwon the dogs come through and it does have me scared to pay so much for AL, chisea has continuously upset... I'm a superstitious guy and people will knock me for it, but chiesa's father's death and uncanny motivation afterwards has had something to due with his success imo and something like that should not be underestimated imo... Overall I'm hoping chisea's trends of upsetting and come from behinds ends on Friday, and I think it does.

Like Vitoch said I think we'll get to see crushiank shine against tickle (sucks we didn't get to see much of him because I've read some really good things about daron). I just don't thinkm I can pay that price on a guy who I haven't really seen much of nor know much about.

As V and others have said cofer at +300 is tasty, I agree +300 is ridiculous... Def has some value and prob worth a small upset play.


Was liking Albert, but like V said that price was a little high, was hoping it'd be a little lower... Gotta do research on perez and break that one down, Albert's done nothing but impress for me, even in his losses. Seems like a very well rounded and big ass athletic dude for bw too (although I can't tell if he gassed against menjivar or just really got tangleed up like that with ivan on his back...). But its kind of a golden rule of mine to not pay juice on a guy who is facing someone I have never seen fight before nor never heard of before (that has burned me bad in the past).

Having trouble breaking aloe vera / brooks down, but def like aloe vera from my initial thoughts, people who got the opener are stoked, I prob won't pull the trigger at anything above -200..

lol so yea no major big play or anything, sorry. If anything I have some uncertainty in every play I am interested in and prob won't be 'slaming' any of them.

Curious what you all think of these matches??? appreciate the insight as always!!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

haha fair enough...

[MMAbetMASTA]

Jackson guy who beat Paul McVeigh by decision in his last fight...predominantly a striker. Kong Watson and Leonard Garcia have been biggin him up a lot saying he's one of the toughest guys in the gym. I think he may have issue with the weight-cut on short notice, will be interesting to see the weigh-in. I liked Albert but not sure at those odds

Interesting thanks man, sounds like he has potential... prob a no play for me then, was liking albert but like you said bit pricey...

[Vitooch]

Would also like to hear some thoughts on Marcello/Sicilia...Sicilia is very heavy handed, but as we saw against Saunders, throws technique completely out the window once he is tagged, and tends to gas and fade...Marcello, on the other hand, is much more technical, and patient, but his wrestling is lacking. Marcello should have no trouble schooling Sicilia if the fight goes to the ground, but will it?

[Vitooch]

Lines were released on Bookmaker...Cruick is -200, Marcello is +135, Perez is +175, and Saunders is +245

[Vitooch]

One more fight...I like Larsen at dog odds against Proctor...I don't see why Proctor should be so heavily favored here...I though he looked awful against James Vick. While Larsen didn't look so great against Chiesa either, both guys seem evenly matched. Might even give the wrestling advantage to Larsen. I think his sub defense may be good enough to cruise to a decision victory.

[Vaughany]

What are YOU thinking???

haha, nothing special I'm just playing around...Wish I had a big play I've been wanting one since my big loss from palhares (unfortunately didn't put more faith / stacked more on teixeira last week), so I honestly don't plan to slam anything...

Was hoping jury was gonna be lower (I think this is someone who I'm sure a few of us had an eye on, and were also prob hoping for a lower line considering his lackluster performance in the show), but even at -250 ish its a little enticing... I think he is better than saunders anywhere this fight goes, complete advantages all over saunders entire game imo (some might argue that saunders has better kickboxing but I am not too impressed, but I could be underestimating it due to the little I've seen of saunders outside of tuf). But if jury gets at -300 or larger I def won't be playing him. Yet at under -300 I think a guy who I feel is better everywhere is a worthy play... Saunders backers why you like him over jury???

Its no secret that people are liking AL... I know I do and will prob pay the juice on him when he opens on my book (assuming he doesn't get too high up), but yea like jury I think he has chiesa beat almost everywhere outside of jitz... And I don't think chisea's sloppy tds will get it down unless al wants it to or al gasses ( it seems two of chisea's opponents did gas therefore giving him the ability to get it down to the mat and keep it there, coming back from behind to win the fights..). I don't think al will gas, I think he'll bust up chisea on the feet for the first round and most of 2nd, then maybe go for some tds / clinch wars once they are both a little more tired and wet. I just can't see chisea winning unless a freak submission from a gassed al, which I really can't see happening. Al looked strong against jury even in the 3rd round and I think he'll stay strong against chisea... Chiesa's striking is hideous yet somehow he lands!!! AL seems like an intelligent striker so I really think he's gonna bust him up on the feet and toss him aside in the clinch to keep it upright... However, this season of tuf has shwon the dogs come through and it does have me scared to pay so much for AL, chisea has continuously upset... I'm a superstitious guy and people will knock me for it, but chiesa's father's death and uncanny motivation afterwards has had something to due with his success imo and something like that should not be underestimated imo... Overall I'm hoping chisea's trends of upsetting and come from behinds ends on Friday, and I think it does.

Like Vitoch said I think we'll get to see crushiank shine against tickle (sucks we didn't get to see much of him because I've read some really good things about daron). I just don't thinkm I can pay that price on a guy who I haven't really seen much of nor know much about.

As V and others have said cofer at +300 is tasty, I agree +300 is ridiculous... Def has some value and prob worth a small upset play.


Was liking Albert, but like V said that price was a little high, was hoping it'd be a little lower... Gotta do research on perez and break that one down, Albert's done nothing but impress for me, even in his losses. Seems like a very well rounded and big ass athletic dude for bw too (although I can't tell if he gassed against menjivar or just really got tangleed up like that with ivan on his back...). But its kind of a golden rule of mine to not pay juice on a guy who is facing someone I have never seen fight before nor never heard of before (that has burned me bad in the past).

Having trouble breaking aloe vera / brooks down, but def like aloe vera from my initial thoughts, people who got the opener are stoked, I prob won't pull the trigger at anything above -200..

lol so yea no major big play or anything, sorry. If anything I have some uncertainty in every play I am interested in and prob won't be 'slaming' any of them.

Curious what you all think of these matches??? appreciate the insight as always!!!

Albert talks about gassing out in interview on ufc.com. Says he blew his wad trying to finish Menjivar with barage of punches and knees then his arms just went. And he made what he refers to as a major error by jumping for the guillotine...something he tells all his teammates to never do as it's success rate is so low and u are more than likely just giving up position

[MMAbetMASTA]

Albert talks about gassing out in interview on ufc.com. Says he blew his wad trying to finish Menjivar with barage of punches and knees then his arms just went. And he made what he refers to as a major error by jumping for the guillotine...something he tells all his teammates to never do as it's success rate is so low and u are more than likely just giving up position

ah right on thanks, yea that's what I figured he just gassed after that huge barrage... So you still don't like him though at those odds??

Also, I remember you were really high on jury's prospects and prob out of anyone on here have done the most research on him... What you thinking about him over saunders / how you break that down... ??? Considering the hype he had both this season and teh other season, and not coming through, I would think he's especially hungry and motivated to make a statement and show he belongs..

[PunisherIND]

betmasta, gave you two fake chips for the informative post.

[fosho14]

Also, I remember you were really high on jury's prospects and prob out of anyone on here have done the most research on him... What you thinking about him over saunders / how you break that down... ??? Considering the hype he had both this season and teh other season, and not coming through, I would think he's especially hungry and motivated to make a statement and show he belongs..

Jury is better everywhere IMO, and I think that is reflected in the line

[fosho14]

Masta, I do agree with you that in theory aiquinta should take this but I'm definitely not nearly as confident as you are. First of all we have no idea how big the gap is between chiseas wrestling and aiquintas. It's been frustrating for me to continually watch chisea look like shit, but somehow pull off these victories but that's what happens when your one dimensional and good at that one speciality. Chisea has excellent ground control wrestling/grappling and if the fight goes down there I would still favor chisea over aiquinta. I know you don't think that aiquinta will stuff all his takedowns but for argument sake, what are your thoughts if the fight does happen to hit the mat. Do you see Iaquinta popping back up immediately? Hell of a lot of question marks for -275 no?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Jury wilts as the fight goes deeper. He was pathetically gunshy against Iaquinta in the third round of their fight.

In contrast, Saunders is a survivor and loves a dogfight. Saunders will be tough to finish so, if he can survive Myle's early onslaught, he may be able to wear Myles out and steal the latter two rounds. He's a live dog IMO.

[fosho14]

Jury wilts as the fight goes deeper. He was pathetically gunshy against Iaquinta in the third round of their fight.

In contrast, Saunders is a survivor and loves a dogfight. Saunders will be tough to finish so, if he can survive Myle's early onslaught, he may be able to wear Myles out and steal the latter two rounds. He's a live dog IMO.

well your getting nice value if you feel it will turn out that way. I do agree with you in the sense that Saunders doesn't tire easily which is dangerous. GL.

[gabe]

Saunders has more heart than Jury ever will. If it comes down to heart, Saunders takes it 10 out of 10 times.

[Vitooch]

Jury pissed me off more than any fighter has when he lost to Iaquinta. He threw one leg kick in the sudden death round and then thanked god as if he won the fight, when he reality he faded and showed a lack of heart and toughness. As talented and as much potential I think Jury has, I'm afraid he will get outworked again. With that being said, Al is far more skilled than Saunders.

[The HOFF]

The thing with this show is that there hasn't been anytime for the fighters to join a camp and improve in between the end of the show and the finale. With all the other finale shows, fighters would be completely different by the show. There were always huge upsets. I think these fighters are going to be the same as they showed while on the show and the upsets should be minimal.

[NunyaBidness]

The thing with this show is that there hasn't been anytime for the fighters to join a camp and improve in between the end of the show and the finale. With all the other finale shows, fighters would be completely different by the show. There were always huge upsets. I think these fighters are going to be the same as they showed while on the show and the upsets should be minimal.

Agree with this for the most part. Fighters who didn't make it out of round 1 may have advantages over fighters who've seen more mileage in the past few weeks.

[TheCalculator]

Couple of other factors:

Fighters who "lost" -- may have more drive and determination to PROVE themselves. The biggest thing in those TUF finale's is the skill trending. A lot of these guys are literally making LEAPS and bounds of improvements in their skills on a weekly basis.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Would also like to hear some thoughts on Marcello/Sicilia...Sicilia is very heavy handed, but as we saw against Saunders, throws technique completely out the window once he is tagged, and tends to gas and fade...Marcello, on the other hand, is much more technical, and patient, but his wrestling is lacking. Marcello should have no trouble schooling Sicilia if the fight goes to the ground, but will it?

If sam's conditioning is anything like it was against saunders I think he will be in trouble if he doens't put marcello away in the 1st.. Plus, I actually give marcello a slight edge on the feet with regard to technique, so if sam's slow in the 2nd and 3rd it might not have to go to the ground and marcello could perhaps out point him there. But yea sam is toast if it hits the mat with macello on top... Hard fight to pay -200 on imo.. But in the end I think sam will come out strong and clobber marcello for a 1st round stoppage.

[MMAbetMASTA]

betmasta, gave you two fake chips for the informative post.

cool man, thanks!!

I asked this in another thread and didn't get a response, but what do the points mean??? I try to give them but sbr says I can't give my points away, how come I can't give any out?? Also, everyday my points keep going up, but I can't find out who gives them to me or why they rise every day. Lastly, what do they mean / do you get a prize if you reach a certain amount or something???

[Vaughany]

cool man, thanks!!

I asked this in another thread and didn't get a response, but what do the points mean??? I try to give them but sbr says I can't give my points away, how come I can't give any out?? Also, everyday my points keep going up, but I can't find out who gives them to me or why they rise every day. Lastly, what do they mean / do you get a prize if you reach a certain amount or something???

U get points for like 1st post of the day and stuff so not always people giving u points. U can buy pizza tokens and other stuff in the sbr store like tshirts, hats, freeplays on sportbet etc... But pretty pointless if ur not a "pro" tho

[MMAbetMASTA]

Masta, I do agree with you that in theory aiquinta should take this but I'm definitely not nearly as confident as you are. First of all we have no idea how big the gap is between chiseas wrestling and aiquintas. It's been frustrating for me to continually watch chisea look like shit, but somehow pull off these victories but that's what happens when your one dimensional and good at that one speciality. Chisea has excellent ground control wrestling/grappling and if the fight goes down there I would still favor chisea over aiquinta. I know you don't think that aiquinta will stuff all his takedowns but for argument sake, what are your thoughts if the fight does happen to hit the mat. Do you see Iaquinta popping back up immediately? Hell of a lot of question marks for -275 no?

I hear you man, like an idiot I thought the -300 opener on my site was good and that his line would only get worse, but he's now at -275 on my book so I'm already slapping myself for paying for a juicer line when it looks like it will drop a little more by tomorrow.

Chiesa is the best wrestler Al's faced, but his technique doesn't look good imo (both his wrestling and especially his stand up). I'm not a wrestling expert so perhaps big day or someone can join in, but do you all agree that with regard to fundamentals chiesa's wrestling technique, his set ups for shots and clinches, etc, all look a lil sloppy?? Its proven effective, but imo it worked out against guys who have zero grappling background, guys who gassed, and guys who had dumb ass fight iq (lawrence)... AL has some wrestling background I believe and from what I know is compotent on the ground, but chooses to stand thus far because he knows he's more effective than his opponents there. I think this is the case here and I think he can defend chiesa. At least I REALLY hope he is otherwise I'll be really pissed at myself for paying a juicy ass line on a guy who couldn't defend what I see as mediocre tds... Yet if it does get on the ground with chiesa on top then I will give him credit where its due - like you said he does have VERY good sub grappling ability and control, very flowing, very natural and very strong. Yet its all about getting to that position and I'm banking AL doesn't let chiesa get it there.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Agree with this for the most part. Fighters who didn't make it out of round 1 may have advantages over fighters who've seen more mileage in the past few weeks.

The thing with this show is that there hasn't been anytime for the fighters to join a camp and improve in between the end of the show and the finale. With all the other finale shows, fighters would be completely different by the show. There were always huge upsets. I think these fighters are going to be the same as they showed while on the show and the upsets should be minimal.

These are REALLY good points and shouldn't be taken lightly... There is a big difference in this season compared to the past ones... we really have a good idea how these fighters will look and while there has been a trend of upsets, I think the lines are right (at least for a couple matches) and that we won't see any surprises from the dogs... Fighters who have had time off / got eliminated early, especially fighters with potential and hype (cushiank / jury), I thnk these guys are gonna look better than ever. Could be completely wrong with all of this, but these guys bring up some good points that are probably being overlooked by most people...

[MMAbetMASTA]

U get points for like 1st post of the day and stuff so not always people giving u points. U can buy pizza tokens and other stuff in the sbr store like tshirts, hats, freeplays on sportbet etc... But pretty pointless if ur not a "pro" tho

ahhh, I see that's what I figured... lol so they don't mean shit is what you're saying... That would be cool if they gave out gift certificates to places to eat or electronics or cool prizes like that, I'd take them very seriously if that were the case.

And what does it mean to be a pro? I should probably know since I've been on here about a year, but still I don't know the benefits. It costs money too right?

[Vaughany]

ahhh, I see that's what I figured... lol so they don't mean shit is what you're saying... That would be cool if they gave out gift certificates to places to eat or electronics or cool prizes like that, I'd take them very seriously if that were the case.

And what does it mean to be a pro? I should probably know since I've been on here about a year, but still I don't know the benefits. It costs money too right?

Didnt cost me money, just had to deposit $200 or something in to sportbet which Id obviously done anyway. Tht was over a year ago tho so dont know the deal now. You can get pizza vouchers for dominoes or something and stuff which I think most use points for. I use them to get free $70 in sportbet. Have a look in the store... http://store.sportsbookreview.com/categories/43-electronics/
http://store.sportsbookreview.com/categories/44-gift-cards
http://store.sportsbookreview.com/prices/low-750/high-1000/ you've got at least 1600 points by looks of it so could get a couple free $70 in bookmake or sportbet if u wer pro

[PunisherIND]

Didnt cost me money, just had to deposit $200 or something in to sportbet which Id obviously done anyway. Tht was over a year ago tho so dont know the deal now. You can get pizza vouchers for dominoes or something and stuff which I think most use points for. I use them to get free $70 in sportbet. Have a look in the store... http://store.sportsbookreview.com/categories/43-electronics/
http://store.sportsbookreview.com/categories/44-gift-cards
http://store.sportsbookreview.com/prices/low-750/high-1000/ you've got at least 1600 points by looks of it so could get a couple free $70 in bookmake or sportbet if u wer pro

unfortunately you cant become a pro by depositing $200 in a sponsored book anymore (at least not for US residents). currently you have to spend $200 on a fantasy sports website / pro handicapper subscription / line serve subscription / sports ticket purchase, or spend $2750 on amazon.

but yea, the points are pretty worthless if ur not pro, which im not either -- i just give em away as a token of appreciation.

[Vaughany]

ah right, there u go then!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Ahh, very interesting... There are some legit prizes up in there and can't complain about free play money! I'll prob join up next time I start a mainstream online account, prob with bm... Thanks for the info!!

[Vitooch]

Does anyone know if books accept the $100 ********** gift card from the SBR store as a form of deposit?

[Grabaka]

TUF FINALE Risk: 1110
300 on Ellenberger @ -200
182 on Cruickshank @ -182
178 on Albert @ -178
150 on Brookins @ +161
100 on Saunders @ +275
100 on Cofer @ +275
50 on Marcelo @ +150
50 on Ellenberger ITD @ +137

[NunyaBidness]

Does anyone know if books accept the $100 ********** gift card from the SBR store as a form of deposit?

If the asterisks cover up the word pizzahut, I doubt it.