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UFC on FOX 3
Date: May 05, 2012
Location: East Rutherford, N.J.
Venue: IZOD Center
Broadcast: FOX and FUEL TV
- Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
- Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck
- Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares
- Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson
- John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss
- John Dodson vs. Darren Uyenoyama
- Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish
- Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola
- Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker
I wonder if they will add a big fight or go with the 3 Diaz/Miller Hendricks/Koscheck and Belcher/Palhares
I thought theyd already said Miller/Diaz is a five rounder so must be main event?
- Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
- Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck
- Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares
- Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson
Main Card
I will take Diaz at +230 or better
Kos, Paul Harris, and Barry to win
I was hoping Forrest/Tito would be on this card. Looks like it won't be.
Diiaz line will only get worse, probly end up at +125 to +150 rangeOriginally Posted by Beelzebubzy
yea it is the main. I wonder if they do 3 fights like the last card on FOX and the rest on Fuel
Ye probably. None of the other fights look like main card material
I hope Hendricks destroys Koscheck.
I really like what Joe and Dana did with this card. Excited to see Palhares back in action.
You dont think Jersey action will help move the line for Miller?
You don't think SoCal action will help move the line for Diaz?
Two Shea but I was thinking since it is in Jersey that these Jersey Shore Situations might throw some extra on Miller but I guess the same can be same for Diaz I guess
That kind of information is useful when betting locally. A lot of locals shade lines against the local team knowing the fan will bet it anyway. Against the right bookie you could make money fading/middling the local teams over and over.
Plus, efficient market theory would tell you that when dumb money pushes the line the wrong way smart money is going to come in and push it back to parity.
If Dana wanted to avoid the boring matches that have cursed FOX cards so far, he should drop Kos/Hendricks from the maincard and move up someone like Dodson.
MAIN CARD (FOX)
- Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller
- Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson
- Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck
- Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV)
- John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss
- John Dodson vs. Darren Uyenoyama
- Johnny Bedford vs. Nick Denis
- Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish
- Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza
- Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola
- Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker
lavar/barry ITD -300 on 5d.
how can this end any way other than one of these guys getting ktfo?
lavar might take barry down and be unable to finish
also...beltran was able to survive 3 rds standing with barry...maybe lavar can do it..?
dont think barry will survive if lavar can land cleanly though
Barry by sub. No joke.
i dont think lavar has ever attempted a takedown. lol. he's never been to a decision. i think theres two possible outcomes: either barry lands continuous low kicks until he dismantles johnson's leg, or, if lavar can land flush, he's knocking out barry.
you will surely get a nice payout on that. might be worth a stab.
Barry could get a boner for him and spend 50% of the fight smiling and hugging?
hahhaa in that scenario, i think the fight ends with lavar getting a sub. probably by ezekial choke.
I don't like much on this card for betting. The Palhares line may be interesting.
I guess Diaz has value at that sort of dog, but then again he always seems undervalued. I can see Miller getting key TDs though and staying out of any subs.
5d opened some more prop lines for diaz/miller, hendricks/koscheck, and barry/johnson
miller at -190 is my play
diaz's cant deal with the scrappy wrestlers that can avoid the sub.
other than the size .. i think miller fits the bill
i'd play miller dec ..but miller can could always surprise with a tricky sub like he pulled on oliveira
if you're leaning miller, i think you have to go miller by decision. nate is one tough SOB.
anyone else liking garza at plus odds?
just bet on him to win a unit this morning.
the line really doesnt effect who should win.
lavar johnson by tko +285 at 5Dimes
gotta be the play if you like lavar to win.
I think pat has 10 times better technical striking then lavar. If he doesn't run unlucky like he did against Kongo pat should easily win.
lavar will have massive height and reach advantage, probably power as well. i still favor barry to win, but this is anyone's fight. anyway, you could always play barry SU and hedge with lavar by TKO.
like Diaz, Kos, & Lavar
as for Barry/Johson, I agree about Barry having the obvious technique advantage but he's all finesse w/ a real lack of killer instinct and just easy to bet against.
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