[MMAbetMASTA]

Hard to envision Big Country losing to Mirko.

Not really, I can see it happening.

Hopefully people have realized by now that country's striking is a bit overrated. Yes he KO'd schaub all quick and blasted struve, but I am still not sold on it. It ain't bad, but I wouldn't call it good. He has a punchers chance in this fight - which is a big chance against a glass chin like mirko.

However, as long as mirko keeps this technical and doesn't get sucked into a slugging contest where country is close enough to land that big one, then he should win this. I can't think of many instances where country used a combo, he rarely follows up with his punches... a strategy of landing the one big punch, overhand after overhand, is a technical striker's dream. Mirko isn't the same striker he used to be, but he is light years ahead of country. If he keeps it technical, and keeps it rather boring unfortunately, then he can pepper his way to a ud. If he keeps it fundamental he should have no problem out striking country.

I am not worried the least bit about country's ground game / tds. Yes he is a jitz artist at base, but we rarely see it and his tds are quite ugly - mirko has stuffed shots and popped back up from guys who have way better wrestling and athleticism. I will be biting my words and will feel like an idiot if country does get a sub or grinds to a ud, but I find this very unlikely... this fight plays out on the feet which ultimately favors mirko, and favors him a lot imo...

In my breakdown in my head, this is a favorable style for mirko. He has all the tools to beat country and obviously his biggest enemy is his chin - which I hope he does everything to protect. Being that this is supposedly his last fight win / lose, I am a bit scared that he might go in there to put on a show, brawl / slug it out / technicality goes out the window, and he ends up layed out on the canvas again. Once again, my biggest concern with mirko, is well - mirko! The guy seems like he's lost his mental edge. So who knows which mirko will show up. This is what's keeping me from making a nice dog play on him. Still making some sort of str8 play with him, just not going crazy and will probably back it up with nelson by ko.

[TheCalculator]

I agree with your assessment. That's why I think
This fight has some of the better props in my opinion:

Them going distance +120 (it will go distance unless Mirko get KTFO by NOT being technical).
NOT Mirko before bell -1160 (good to boost some parlays).

[Nick The Greek]

CroCop died with PRIDE. The guy we've been watching the last 4 years is Mirko Filipovic and he sucks. He's just in it for the paychecks at this point and has been for a while now. Unless Nelson marks out in there like Pat Barry's dumbass did, he's not going to lose this fight. It could be a very boring decision since Mirko literally just goes out there and circles around, but Nelson definitely gets the W.

[NunyaBidness]

Probably won't let you parlay two guys to win the same fight..

But if they're both locks, they're both gonna win!

[TheCalculator]

Nelson getting W by decision could lead to a very good night for me.

Also going for Siver-Cerrone decision.

And put a bit of cake on Mitrione by decision (strong value there).
Plus Mitrione straight up in a few parlays.

[Kaladarus]

I'm liking this card. Lots of great props out there already and I'm sure there will be several good plays once all odds are released.

[bogbat]

I think with regard to mirko's surprising odds, that he is the best upset dog on the card. I think calling nelson a lock is foolish (especially paying that juicy price) and I won't be the least bit surprised if mirko wins an easy sparring, I mean, striking match Either way gl if you go with country. Hioki is my biggest lock. He will sub roop in the first round imo... Roop's sub defense is not that great and hioki is just nasty with his grappling. If diaz / penn turns into a 5 rounder, which I give about 1% of happening, then I will really like Mr. Diaz and will probably make a nice play on him. In a 3 rounder, I think bj gives us a boring 1st and 2nd laying in diaz' guard, then diaz wins a boxing match in the 3rd as bj's strenght and gas dwindles, and diaz loses a ud that most people think he should have won. Also like scotty J depending on where his line is at, but wouldn't call him a lock by any means.

Do you think Hioki have any trouble getting the fight to the ground? Roop looked great last fight and Hioki may get the octagon jitters.

[TheCalculator]

On paper Hioki should take this easily. In reality?

Do you think Hioki have any trouble getting the fight to the ground? Roop looked great last fight and Hioki may get the octagon jitters.

[bogbat]

On paper Hioki should take this easily. In reality?

He should, but we never know for sure how these Japanese fighters will perform when they come state side for the first time and if Roop can keep the fight on the feet it could be competitive.

[proposition joe]

He should, but we never know for sure how these Japanese fighters will perform when they come state side for the first time and if Roop can keep the fight on the feet it could be competitive.

I am LOVING Roop here. Length and striking will win this one. Hioki is brilliant on the ground, but his takedowns and striking can very well fail him here.

[TheCalculator]

Next level of props just opened up on 5d. Including subs/TKOs, going to round 2, etc...

[sirchadwick1]

I am LOVING Roop here. Length and striking will win this one. Hioki is brilliant on the ground, but his takedowns and striking can very well fail him here.

Small play on Roop here as well... I tend to fade Asian fighters entering the UFC even though Hioki is probably not the best one to go against. I made the mistake of putting down early on Roop at +175 though. I'll probably add a bit more at his current line.

[proposition joe]

Small play on Roop here as well... I tend to fade Asian fighters entering the UFC even though Hioki is probably not the best one to go against. I made the mistake of putting down early on Roop at +175 though. I'll probably add a bit more at his current line.

That's odd that the lines have changed in that direction on your book. I bought in at Roop +295 a few weeks ago and now he's down to +245..

[sirchadwick1]

It was on 5d. I put down on Roop within 20 minutes of the line opening. I think he opened at +150.

[Vaughany]

Roop was gonna always end up at at least +250. He's under-rated and many see Hioki as being a top 3 FW

[MMAbetMASTA]

Do you think Hioki have any trouble getting the fight to the ground? Roop looked great last fight and Hioki may get the octagon jitters.

I'll admit that the japanese debuts do have me worried a bit. However, I think hioki has a strong mentality and fight iq. I think he knows he might be the last legit japanese fighter to make a possible run at a title. therefore I see him being very mentally sound for this fight, or at least I'm banking on it because I'll admit this is def my biggest concern. With getting roop to the ground, it is also a concern, but I wouldn't call hioki's hands bad by any means. And roop's hands (and no offense to roop) but rather his overall game just has never impresseed. I was pleased to see him get the huge upset over the fluke and that ko of zombie was epic. Yet it just doesn't sell me. If roop does win, I'll be very impressed and give him my upmost respect.

Yet I honestly think hioki is better everywhere this fight goes, I won't be suprised if he outstrikes roop. Hioki might have trouble going in trying to take it down asap, but I think as the fight wheres on and he mixes in some stand up, he has the skill to change levels or close the distance with strikes to utilize his great throws/trips in the clinch. I'm going to probably just make the ITD play on 5 dimes, its at +115. They don't have hioki by sub up, and Vauhnny predicts it to be around +150, which I agree with and therefore I will probably just go ITD. I'll likely hedge that with something else to back it up, but don't know what yet.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I am LOVING Roop here. Length and striking will win this one. Hioki is brilliant on the ground, but his takedowns and striking can very well fail him here.

The thing is though I am not sold on his striking. His technique does not impress me - he's slow, doesn't have the greatest defense, and doesn't have raw power. KOing a head charging, undisciplined zombie and out working a jitz artist who clearly has HUGE holes in his stand up game does not sell me on roop's striking as being better than hioki's or a serious style threat. Getting ktfo out by hominick and having close matches in most your other fights against B and C level comp is hard for me to bet on, or rather, not bet against. Hioki's stand up has looked sharper every fight, and he really impressed me against sandro and clearly outstruck him as the fight progressed. Hioki imo has fought vastly superior comp and is just plain better everywhere. I'll eat my words and bow down to you all if I"m wrong, but I really can't see roop winning. Much respect to roop and all of you if the upset hits, and either way GL!

[proposition joe]

The thing is though I am not sold on his striking. His technique does not impress me - he's slow, doesn't have the greatest defense, and doesn't have raw power. KOing a head charging, undisciplined zombie and out working a jitz artist who clearly has HUGE holes in his stand up game does not sell me on roop's striking as being better than hioki's or a serious style threat. Getting ktfo out by hominick and having close matches in most your other fights against B and C level comp is hard for me to bet on, or rather, not bet against. Hioki's stand up has looked sharper every fight, and he really impressed me against sandro and clearly outstruck him as the fight progressed. Hioki imo has fought vastly superior comp and is just plain better everywhere. I'll eat my words and bow down to you all if I"m wrong, but I really can't see roop winning. Much respect to roop and all of you if the upset hits, and either way GL!

I see your point. Roop's striking isn't aesthetic (minus the Zombie KO) but it seems to be effective. I do agree that Hioki's striking has improved but that's only because it was so bad in his early fights. It blows my mind when people claim that he outstruck Hominick in their second fight (I think it was the second that I'm thinking of). I would easily consider Grispi a better striker than Hatsu. Grispi's problem is mental though, so it's hard to really compare that. Anyways, good luck to you as well man, you very well may prove to me correct as I wouldn't be shocked if Hioki steamrolls Roop.

[TheCalculator]

My biggest worry with any new asian fighter is: Are the yakuza going to pay him to lose? Is jet lag and jitters going to fawn him?

[TheCalculator]

Tavares is the underdog.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-spo...-jacoby/winner

[NunyaBidness]

Tavares is the underdog.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-spo...-jacoby/winner

I don't think a $65 market with 50 cent lines is very useful in determining anything at this point.

[illmatick]

I would easily consider Grispi a better striker than Hatsu.

.

[jacktheknife]

Easy money this card I guess, current locks in this thread:
Vera
Nelson
Cerrone
Jorgensen
Curran
Mitrione
Nijem

Wonder why 5d won't let me parlay them all. They must be afraid of the locks!

Whoopsers.

I'd shave Mitrione and Nijem as well (seriously, Mitrione?) and I'm afraid we're gonna have to make with the J-fade on Hioki, which is too bad, because if he loses, Japan is done for real.

If you're looking for parley material, throw Alexis Villa in there.

[Vaughany]

Tavares is the underdog.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-spo...-jacoby/winner

That's only on betfair though, doesn't mean he'll be the dog on other sites. Betfair is an exchange so you'll see random odds and it doesn't mean you'll be able to get what is stated on oddschecker

[Vaughany]

I'll admit that the japanese debuts do have me worried a bit. However, I think hioki has a strong mentality and fight iq. I think he knows he might be the last legit japanese fighter to make a possible run at a title. therefore I see him being very mentally sound for this fight, or at least I'm banking on it because I'll admit this is def my biggest concern. With getting roop to the ground, it is also a concern, but I wouldn't call hioki's hands bad by any means. And roop's hands (and no offense to roop) but rather his overall game just has never impresseed. I was pleased to see him get the huge upset over the fluke and that ko of zombie was epic. Yet it just doesn't sell me. If roop does win, I'll be very impressed and give him my upmost respect.

Yet I honestly think hioki is better everywhere this fight goes, I won't be suprised if he outstrikes roop. Hioki might have trouble going in trying to take it down asap, but I think as the fight wheres on and he mixes in some stand up, he has the skill to change levels or close the distance with strikes to utilize his great throws/trips in the clinch. I'm going to probably just make the ITD play on 5 dimes, its at +115. They don't have hioki by sub up, and Vauhnny predicts it to be around +150, which I agree with and therefore I will probably just go ITD. I'll likely hedge that with something else to back it up, but don't know what yet.

Hioki by sub came out yesterday or day before - is +150. Im going to wait and take Hioki Sub of Night at +400 or better. I dont envisage many submission finishes on this card - BJ/Diaz should neutralise eachother, Mitrione/Kongo will likely be a TKO or decision, I'm not sure Nelson has the wrestling to take Cro-Cop down and submit him - will probably go to decision or Nelson TKO, Jacoby/Tavares will probably be a stand-up brawl.

[Vaughany]

And Grispi's stand-up is very rudimentary!

[TheCalculator]

That's only on betfair though, doesn't mean he'll be the dog on other sites. Betfair is an exchange so you'll see random odds and it doesn't mean you'll be able to get what is stated on oddschecker

Ok -- so I just discovered BetFair last night. Let me get this straight...

People go on Betfair and put up whatever odds they want? And you can accept them? Is that the deal? And I can put up any odd I want and people can accept them?

[Vaughany]

Ok -- so I just discovered BetFair last night. Let me get this straight...

People go on Betfair and put up whatever odds they want? And you can accept them? Is that the deal? And I can put up any odd I want and people can accept them?

As far as Im aware that's how it works. I've never looked in to it too much but probly should as u can probably get some steals on their.

[bjpenn85]

I havent either looked much into it. But there is a guy a friends friend that play there a whole lot. And he has something like 50.000dollars on account. I dont know over how many years but he just play on lines from what i have heard. although the rumor suggest that he is quite intelligent the knowledge some of us have here when it comes to predict or envision odds should be apply-able to that market, hopefully.

[proposition joe]

.

I should rephrase that. Grispi has the potential to be a much better striker than Hioki. At times, I confuse the two. Grispi's problem is that he fights like a BITCH, but his talent is undeniable, and his athletic ability could really cause problems for a lot of featherweights on the feet. His defensive posturing isn't really that bad, he just doesn't like being hit. I guess I just see flashes of him being a much better striker than he consistently is and idealize his talents in my head.

[NunyaBidness]

Ok -- so I just discovered BetFair last night. Let me get this straight...

People go on Betfair and put up whatever odds they want? And you can accept them? Is that the deal? And I can put up any odd I want and people can accept them?

Yes, it's a betting exchange. If I had access to it, 90% of my bankroll would be there. Matchbook used to be open to the US, and that was amazing, and I think Betfair has bigger markets. If you have time to watch news, line moves, babysit positions you can make a good deal of money. 1 cent lines on major sports.

[DDT]

Big Country is a sure thing....as much as I loathe the guy

[NunyaBidness]

I havent either looked much into it. But there is a guy a friends friend that play there a whole lot. And he has something like 50.000dollars on account. I dont know over how many years but he just play on lines from what i have heard. although the rumor suggest that he is quite intelligent the knowledge some of us have here when it comes to predict or envision odds should be apply-able to that market, hopefully.

Yeah, I don't know how similar betfair is to matchbook, but matchbook would even pay you commission if your bets were accepted (0.2%). So you see Penn/Diaz at -115/-115 at bookmaker say, and you think its a true coinflip, you post -110/-110 and you're getting +110.2/+110.2. Make adjustments as lines move, don't put yourself in an arbable position (unless you're opinionated on one side, make yourself arbable by 3 cents and your position will get eaten up quick).

[Vaughany]

Well I know that Betfair take a percentage of your winnings as commission

[NunyaBidness]

Well I know that Betfair take a percentage of your winnings as commission

Always? At matchbook, they took 1% if you accepted the offer, gave .2% if you made the offer. As an attempt to increase the size of the markets. It may have backfired, as people started offering better prices rather than accepting anyone's bets.