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ufc 136 4 u
AARON SIMPSON -- This could be Fight of the Night. (though, unlikely, given the main card) Most likely outcome is A-Train taking a decision. That's what my money would be on. A-Train straight + Decision prop.
STIPE MIOCIC -- My main worry here is Stipe's conditioning. Beltran's got a good chin with good conditioning and could go three rounds, no sweat, but if Stipe hasn't put him away by round 3, he himself might be put away in the third... I am just going to hope he is aware of his opponents conditioning + durability and has prepared himself properly for this bout. I don't see Stipe getting knocked out early in the fight. Had this not been his first UFC bout, I would have 100% guaranteed a win here... Even with the question marks, I see this as a great play. The fact that he has never faced a known opponent has people thinking he might not be able to handle UFC caliber heavyweights. The line isn't out yet, but I am really hoping he is an underdog. If he comes out an underdog or small favorite, I am hitting it big. I feel really good about Stipe winning this fight. He's got too much Croatian pride to lose his first fight in the UFC, especially when he is undefeated. Good play here, guys. Really hoping he's a dog, like Stanislav Nedkov at UFC 134. That was a similar play, except Stipe is more skilled than Nedkov, so I like my chances a little more here.
JEREMY STEPHENS -- I think Anthony Pettis has a better chance of winning this fight, as I initially felt he would when the fight was announced... but the juice on Pettis is just not worth it... and the odds on Stephens are way too good to pass up. Stephens has a really good chance at winning, and the return being offered for those chances are worth at least a small bet. Pettis' chances of losing are too high to risk the juice on him. I would say Pettis has a 60% shot and Stephens, 40%-- +250 with a 40% chance sounds good to me. That's how I'm rationalizing this one.
DEMIAN MAIA -- Maia is going to take a win here. This is a lock. I feel like he won his fight against Mark Munoz, even though he didn't get the decision. And I had my money on Munoz, so I was really happy with what I thought was a bad decision. Jorge Santiago is coming off a loss to Brian Stann, blames it on "octagon jitters." Brian Stann is a great fighter and Santiago was able to stand up with him for nearly two whole rounds. He should put up a challenge for Maia, but Maia will figure out a way to out-strike him and possibly put him away with a submission. Line isn't out on this fight yet, I am hoping the juice isn't above -250. I don't expect it to be above -200. Fingers crossed.
NAM PHAN -- Both of these guys are fighting for their careers here, I think. Not sure if Garcia would be cut, though I think he will, but Phan likely would...unless they get another Fight of the Night, I guess... I wasn't impressed with Phan against Mike Brown. I had him picked to win as a dog in that fight, and all I got was a loss for my L column. Here, I am, taking him again, against a guy who stole a decision from him. Phan should be smart going into this fight. He's Asian, so I expect him to do all his homework before it. He should be planning to put the pressure on Garcia to tire him out. He should be working on wrestling and ground and pound, as that is where he could have an advantage over Garcia. He can beat him with his striking alone, but he should be working on maximizing in other areas to guarantee a decision, if not KO or submit. I believe he will be looking for the knockout and a submission. I predict Nam Phan wins with submission, most likely a rear naked choke.
MELVIN GUILLARD -- Is he really worth -300? I feel like getting Joe Lauzon, a submission expert, at +270 would be a STEAL, especially against a guy whose biggest weakness are submissions... Lauzon's chances of submitting Guillard are pretty good... Lauzon via Submission would be a pretty good side bet to have... Unlike the Pettis vs Stephens fight, I have a little too much confidence in Guillard to bite into the + money being offered on Lauzon, even though Lauzon is one of my favorite lightweights. I can't shake the feeling that Guillard is going to take this one, likely with a KO in the first round. If not the first, then the second. This really is his fight to lose, and he should be too smart to get caught in a submission, although I would NEVER count Joe Lauzon out of catching anyone with a submission. I'm taking Guillard here, but surely not going big on him.
KENNY FLORIAN -- I will not count out Kenny Florian. He is way too determined and a very skilled fighter. If anybody can take out Aldo, it is him. At these odds, this is not a bad play. I haven't hit it yet, hoping it gets to +300.
GRAY MAYNARD -- His time. He's going to be smarter than he was in the last fight. I expect his conditioning to be better, going into the championship rounds. He's too determined. I hope he doesn't look for the knockout too eagerly, could get caught that way. He should be going for lots and lots of takedowns. If he shows up ready to fight smart, he will win this fight.
I wanted to bet on Brian Stann, but I am just going to sit back and enjoy that one.
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Originally Posted by gabe
