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Griggs/Reem, Wilcox/JZ, Masvidal/Noons
Hey guys,
I was wondering who you all like in this fight and why...? What's your breakdown?? I find the odds interesting and favorable in some cases. I was suprised that the lines on Griggs/Reem and Wilcox/JZ were so even, and I like Masvidal at +145.
Griggs/Reem - I bet huge on valentijn against sefo (thought he was a steal around -150!). I'll come out and say it that I don't think Vreem is that good. Almost every top tier dude he has fought he lost to (the majority of which he fought back in the day in Japan)... The guy has also lost to people with less than a .500 record. He has some sneaky subs against guys with zero ground game, and does have some solid kickboxing. Yet he is also susceptible to subs, and has proven that his chin is nothing special. Griggs on the other hand seems like a brawler, but he seems competent on the ground enough to avoid subs (although his only loss is a kimura), and has one of the better chins out there. Griggs has BIG power and huge drive, he keeps coming and coming and doesn't give up. I think Griggs is gonna KO Vreem in the first round. I don't think reem has the skills to keep him on the mat in top position, nor do I think his chin will hang in a prolonged stand up battle - where I feel this fight will take place. I think near even odds is nice too, I expected him to be around -160 or higher.
Wilcox/JZ- This is a tough one. A few years ago I would have never bet against JZ no matter who his opponent was. I actually thought his fight with thomspon was a draw, at least on my scorecards. The guy has some of the best jitz off his back and has some potent stand up that includes a variety of powerful strikes. He also has great cardio and decent tds. However, I think his main weakness are powerful wrestlers who can hold their own on the feet. Josh tripped him down a few times, and Kawajiri took him down almost at will. Yet both guys had multiple sub attempts thrown at them, many of them really close. Kawajiri has a similar style to Wilcox. They are both short but huge in frame, and have great wrasslin' with solid top control and powerful shots, and have great overall strenght. The big difference, imo, is the stand up. Kawajiri can bang, but he is not too technical. Wilcox is EVER IMPROVING in his stand up and it looks pretty darn crisp. I also think that wilcox has some of the best tds and top control outside of the big name wrestling contenders at LW. However, I'm wondering if he wants it on the ground, and if he wants to risk a fight on the feet where JZ is certainly no slouch and likely better, considering his diverse aresenal of strikes. Although two of WIlcox's 3 losses are from subs, I think he might actually try and take it to the mat. I could go point by point on how i envision this fight and the possibilities, its truly hard to call. BUt overall I think Wilcox is gonna make a statement this saturday. I think he will show that not only can he strike, but that he can survive an onslaught of sub attempts. I think this fight will take place wherever wilcox wants, which favors him overall. He can keep it on the feet and stay there if he is doing well, and if not, he can take a gamble and get the td and see what he can do from the top. I think that gamble of sitting in JZ's guard might be worth it, especially when he drops that heavy gnp leather that Wilcox is capable of. Lastly, I love the AKA camp and I think they will have a solid gameplan going into this bout... those are some great guys to train with for this fight! I think the odds are correct, yet I'm a bit dissapointed wilcox isn't a small dog. I think wilcox gets a decision and receives recognition he will deserve after this win.
Masvidal / Noons - What I thought wasn't too tough to call is now a tough one... As I am sitting here thinking of what to write I realized its harder than I think. I honestly can't pinpoint noons' tdd. How is it? Because I think that masvidal has a style to get KJ down - if needed. I won't be surprised if Masvidal gets the better of kj on the feet, but I don't think it will happen. I think KJ is too tech and too traditional in a boxing sense to lose a striking match, but I wouldn't rule out jorge on the feet entirely. However, I do think masvidal is good enough on the feet to create opportunities to get it to the mat. He hung with daley on the feet and used it to set up tds (in fact, he did really good against daley on the feet, which says a lot imo)... His base is wrestling, and he will use it if needed, but the question is if it's good enough to get noons down? And will he need to take it there, otherwise winning the striking match? Also, jorge's chin has been suspect, while I know noons can take a shot (minus his loss to crazy, but anyone would have gone down from that hit). Another thing for me, and this is obvsiouly subjective, is that I have never been overtly impressed with noons. He's had close fights against 'b' and 'c' level comp but then again has had solid performances against the best. I think jorge is gonna turn this into a gritty striking match and use some funky stand up to change levels and shoot or clinch up and get a trip or something. I think jorge's sub ability and decent top control can keep kj there, but its hard to say that. KJ seems to rarely stay on the mat, which is something I am either ignoring or not giving enough credit. I just think stylistically this match up favors Jorge because he has more ways to win, and is a proven veteran who has seen it all. I got masvidal by decision and I think +145ish isn't too bad... This will be an interesting fight!
What do you all think? Agree, disagree? where am I wrong / what am I missing, and what is your breakdown???
Do you like plays on any of these fights?
I know these match ups are really hard to call and close odds-wise for a reason, so some of you might be thinking there are better fights to pick and might be wondering 'wtf is this guy thinkin!'... there are easier fights to call, I just don't like the odds on most of them.
Lastly, I'm thinking about putting an upset on Monson at +270... I think cormier is still green and will make a mistake for the snowman to capitalize on....
Anyways, I haven't made any plays yet... like an idiot I can never decide and usually wait till the last minute and pay more for unfavorable odds... I'd like to hear what you all think!
Any other plays you guys like on this card? Str8 bets (my bookie doesn't have prop bets)?
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE FIGHTS, I CAN'T WAIT!!!
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Originally Posted by Jordan23
i had bonnar over coleman...
