[NickDiaz209]

Not to be racist or anything but American fighters are just smarter, more defensive fighters who know how to score points. JZ is all flash no substance (typical Brazilian).

Dallas Mavericks = American fighters = smart, technical, strategic.

Miami Heat = Brazilian fighters = all flash no substance, would rather look good and lose than look bad and win. usually can't stop a takedown, usually get tired, not the smartest fighters out there

[sirchadwick1]

You are generalizing/stereotyping like a mofo.

There are plenty of American fighters that don't fight smart and plenty of smart Brazillians that can stop the takedown and are cardio machines. The problem is that 'most' Brazillians don't have a wrestling background and you can't become a great wrestler with great tdd in a short period of time. Hell, some just never can really pick it up.

Wrestling is dominating in MMA and well... most top-level wrestlers just happen to be American.

[terpkeg]

Yeah but this isn't betting on a bunch of +280 dawgs...this is one +280 dawg with one shot to win...if I go with my two friends and we all bet 500 each, we leave with 2k in each of our pockets........

but if he loses

Its one long game of betting. Some days you're up, some days you're down. You can't let your life hang on any one event. Maybe its easier for me because I started off as a poker player. If you see edge you stick the money in, sometimes the variance hurts, but if the edge is there you've gotta hit it.

It is one long game of betting. However, if you are only $40 per play and your going to put $500 on one play, you steal have to deal with the variance. I dont beleive it is as cut and dry as line off by 10%, hammer this. It really depends on your bankroll management, how much risk you can comfortable handeling and the volume you play.

However, I would absolutely max this play if you are close to 100% sure the bet would be honored, because you can just scalp the wager at another local, or ** a realible offshore not taking any bonuses so you can make a withdrawal. Or better yet, leave funds offsure to take advantage of MMA lines in Mexico.

You could be getting +1000 on a coin flip, but if you can ONLY put your LIFE savings on the wager, it may not be te appropriate play for everyone.

[terpkeg]

[quote=MMAbetMASTA;10447237]Hey guys,

I was wondering who you all like in this fight and why...? What's your breakdown?? I find the odds interesting and favorable in some cases. I was suprised that the lines on Griggs/Reem and Wilcox/JZ were so even, and I like Masvidal at +145.

Griggs/Reem - I bet huge on valentijn against sefo (thought he was a steal around -150!). I'll come out and say it that I don't think Vreem is that good. Almost every top tier dude he has fought he lost to (the majority of which he fought back in the day in Japan)... The guy has also lost to people with less than a .500 record. He has some sneaky subs against guys with zero ground game, and does have some solid kickboxing. Yet he is also susceptible to subs, and has proven that his chin is nothing special. Griggs on the other hand seems like a brawler, but he seems competent on the ground enough to avoid subs (although his only loss is a kimura), and has one of the better chins out there. Griggs has BIG power and huge drive, he keeps coming and coming and doesn't give up. I think Griggs is gonna KO Vreem in the first round. I don't think reem has the skills to keep him on the mat in top position, nor do I think his chin will hang in a prolonged stand up battle - where I feel this fight will take place. I think near even odds is nice too, I expected him to be around -160 or higher.

Wilcox/JZ- This is a tough one. A few years ago I would have never bet against JZ no matter who his opponent was. I actually thought his fight with thomspon was a draw, at least on my scorecards. The guy has some of the best jitz off his back and has some potent stand up that includes a variety of powerful strikes. He also has great cardio and decent tds. However, I think his main weakness are powerful wrestlers who can hold their own on the feet. Josh tripped him down a few times, and Kawajiri took him down almost at will. Yet both guys had multiple sub attempts thrown at them, many of them really close. Kawajiri has a similar style to Wilcox. They are both short but huge in frame, and have great wrasslin' with solid top control and powerful shots, and have great overall strenght. The big difference, imo, is the stand up. Kawajiri can bang, but he is not too technical. Wilcox is EVER IMPROVING in his stand up and it looks pretty darn crisp. I also think that wilcox has some of the best tds and top control outside of the big name wrestling contenders at LW. However, I'm wondering if he wants it on the ground, and if he wants to risk a fight on the feet where JZ is certainly no slouch and likely better, considering his diverse aresenal of strikes. Although two of WIlcox's 3 losses are from subs, I think he might actually try and take it to the mat. I could go point by point on how i envision this fight and the possibilities, its truly hard to call. BUt overall I think Wilcox is gonna make a statement this saturday. I think he will show that not only can he strike, but that he can survive an onslaught of sub attempts. I think this fight will take place wherever wilcox wants, which favors him overall. He can keep it on the feet and stay there if he is doing well, and if not, he can take a gamble and get the td and see what he can do from the top. I think that gamble of sitting in JZ's guard might be worth it, especially when he drops that heavy gnp leather that Wilcox is capable of. Lastly, I love the AKA camp and I think they will have a solid gameplan going into this bout... those are some great guys to train with for this fight! I think the odds are correct, yet I'm a bit dissapointed wilcox isn't a small dog. I think wilcox gets a decision and receives recognition he will deserve after this win.

Masvidal / Noons - What I thought wasn't too tough to call is now a tough one... As I am sitting here thinking of what to write I realized its harder than I think. I honestly can't pinpoint noons' tdd. How is it? Because I think that masvidal has a style to get KJ down - if needed. I won't be surprised if Masvidal gets the better of kj on the feet, but I don't think it will happen. I think KJ is too tech and too traditional in a boxing sense to lose a striking match, but I wouldn't rule out jorge on the feet entirely. However, I do think masvidal is good enough on the feet to create opportunities to get it to the mat. He hung with daley on the feet and used it to set up tds (in fact, he did really good against daley on the feet, which says a lot imo)... His base is wrestling, and he will use it if needed, but the question is if it's good enough to get noons down? And will he need to take it there, otherwise winning the striking match? Also, jorge's chin has been suspect, while I know noons can take a shot (minus his loss to crazy, but anyone would have gone down from that hit). Another thing for me, and this is obvsiouly subjective, is that I have never been overtly impressed with noons. He's had close fights against 'b' and 'c' level comp but then again has had solid performances against the best. I think jorge is gonna turn this into a gritty striking match and use some funky stand up to change levels and shoot or clinch up and get a trip or something. I think jorge's sub ability and decent top control can keep kj there, but its hard to say that. KJ seems to rarely stay on the mat, which is something I am either ignoring or not giving enough credit. I just think stylistically this match up favors Jorge because he has more ways to win, and is a proven veteran who has seen it all. I got masvidal by decision and I think +145ish isn't too bad... This will be an interesting fight!

What do you all think? Agree, disagree? where am I wrong / what am I missing, and what is your breakdown???

This was virtually identical to my thought process on Griggs and Wilcox and I played them at -130 and +120, respectively. Only question I have for Masvidal - Noons: Will KJ spend the majority of the fight playing with his hair? Havnt seen recent pictures yet. If not, I think he keeps it up (whether Masvidal obliges or not) and wins a close decision.

[Camdemonium]

[quote=terpkeg;10466953]

Hey guys,

I was wondering who you all like in this fight and why...? What's your breakdown?? I find the odds interesting and favorable in some cases. I was suprised that the lines on Griggs/Reem and Wilcox/JZ were so even, and I like Masvidal at +145.

Griggs/Reem - I bet huge on valentijn against sefo (thought he was a steal around -150!). I'll come out and say it that I don't think Vreem is that good. Almost every top tier dude he has fought he lost to (the majority of which he fought back in the day in Japan)... The guy has also lost to people with less than a .500 record. He has some sneaky subs against guys with zero ground game, and does have some solid kickboxing. Yet he is also susceptible to subs, and has proven that his chin is nothing special. Griggs on the other hand seems like a brawler, but he seems competent on the ground enough to avoid subs (although his only loss is a kimura), and has one of the better chins out there. Griggs has BIG power and huge drive, he keeps coming and coming and doesn't give up. I think Griggs is gonna KO Vreem in the first round. I don't think reem has the skills to keep him on the mat in top position, nor do I think his chin will hang in a prolonged stand up battle - where I feel this fight will take place. I think near even odds is nice too, I expected him to be around -160 or higher.

I think you are right about Griggs having more heart but I'm worried for him if this fight hits the mat. Seems like I remember Lashley controlling him on the ground easily before he gassed. I'm made a small bet on Reem by submission because of that. I think Reem will not stand and trade and instead go for the takedown, get it and look for the sub.

[MMAbetMASTA]

[quote=Camdemonium;10467997]

I think you are right about Griggs having more heart but I'm worried for him if this fight hits the mat. Seems like I remember Lashley controlling him on the ground easily before he gassed. I'm made a small bet on Reem by submission because of that. I think Reem will not stand and trade and instead go for the takedown, get it and look for the sub.

Yea I hear you, big concern of mine. I just don't know that reem is that good with his tds, if he does get one it will likely come from the clinch. I think a prop play with Vreem by sub is legit, if he beats griggs it will be by sub imo. GL man!

[NickDiaz209]

Yea I hear you, big concern of mine. I just don't know that reem is that good with his tds, if he does get one it will likely come from the clinch. I think a prop play with Vreem by sub is legit, if he beats griggs it will be by sub imo. GL man!

hey I just saw your post on sherdog lol..you posted the exact same info...

[Hannibal]

Arguing that masvidal should win because he has more ways to win is stupid. Noons has always only had one way to win. Everyone knows that, yet he still pulls out the victory almost every time.

Still, I don't think this fight is worth my money. Maybe if noonns was closer to even. Or maybe I'll bet the over, as both guýs are notoriously durable.

[rocky mattioli]

[quote=terpkeg;10466953]

Hey guys,

I was wondering who you all like in this fight and why...? What's your breakdown?? I find the odds interesting and favorable in some cases. I was suprised that the lines on Griggs/Reem and Wilcox/JZ were so even, and I like Masvidal at +145.

Griggs/Reem - I bet huge on valentijn against sefo (thought he was a steal around -150!). I'll come out and say it that I don't think Vreem is that good. Almost every top tier dude he has fought he lost to (the majority of which he fought back in the day in Japan)... The guy has also lost to people with less than a .500 record. He has some sneaky subs against guys with zero ground game, and does have some solid kickboxing. Yet he is also susceptible to subs, and has proven that his chin is nothing special. Griggs on the other hand seems like a brawler, but he seems competent on the ground enough to avoid subs (although his only loss is a kimura), and has one of the better chins out there. Griggs has BIG power and huge drive, he keeps coming and coming and doesn't give up. I think Griggs is gonna KO Vreem in the first round. I don't think reem has the skills to keep him on the mat in top position, nor do I think his chin will hang in a prolonged stand up battle - where I feel this fight will take place. I think near even odds is nice too, I expected him to be around -160 or higher.

Wilcox/JZ- This is a tough one. A few years ago I would have never bet against JZ no matter who his opponent was. I actually thought his fight with thomspon was a draw, at least on my scorecards. The guy has some of the best jitz off his back and has some potent stand up that includes a variety of powerful strikes. He also has great cardio and decent tds. However, I think his main weakness are powerful wrestlers who can hold their own on the feet. Josh tripped him down a few times, and Kawajiri took him down almost at will. Yet both guys had multiple sub attempts thrown at them, many of them really close. Kawajiri has a similar style to Wilcox. They are both short but huge in frame, and have great wrasslin' with solid top control and powerful shots, and have great overall strenght. The big difference, imo, is the stand up. Kawajiri can bang, but he is not too technical. Wilcox is EVER IMPROVING in his stand up and it looks pretty darn crisp. I also think that wilcox has some of the best tds and top control outside of the big name wrestling contenders at LW. However, I'm wondering if he wants it on the ground, and if he wants to risk a fight on the feet where JZ is certainly no slouch and likely better, considering his diverse aresenal of strikes. Although two of WIlcox's 3 losses are from subs, I think he might actually try and take it to the mat. I could go point by point on how i envision this fight and the possibilities, its truly hard to call. BUt overall I think Wilcox is gonna make a statement this saturday. I think he will show that not only can he strike, but that he can survive an onslaught of sub attempts. I think this fight will take place wherever wilcox wants, which favors him overall. He can keep it on the feet and stay there if he is doing well, and if not, he can take a gamble and get the td and see what he can do from the top. I think that gamble of sitting in JZ's guard might be worth it, especially when he drops that heavy gnp leather that Wilcox is capable of. Lastly, I love the AKA camp and I think they will have a solid gameplan going into this bout... those are some great guys to train with for this fight! I think the odds are correct, yet I'm a bit dissapointed wilcox isn't a small dog. I think wilcox gets a decision and receives recognition he will deserve after this win.

Masvidal / Noons - What I thought wasn't too tough to call is now a tough one... As I am sitting here thinking of what to write I realized its harder than I think. I honestly can't pinpoint noons' tdd. How is it? Because I think that masvidal has a style to get KJ down - if needed. I won't be surprised if Masvidal gets the better of kj on the feet, but I don't think it will happen. I think KJ is too tech and too traditional in a boxing sense to lose a striking match, but I wouldn't rule out jorge on the feet entirely. However, I do think masvidal is good enough on the feet to create opportunities to get it to the mat. He hung with daley on the feet and used it to set up tds (in fact, he did really good against daley on the feet, which says a lot imo)... His base is wrestling, and he will use it if needed, but the question is if it's good enough to get noons down? And will he need to take it there, otherwise winning the striking match? Also, jorge's chin has been suspect, while I know noons can take a shot (minus his loss to crazy, but anyone would have gone down from that hit). Another thing for me, and this is obvsiouly subjective, is that I have never been overtly impressed with noons. He's had close fights against 'b' and 'c' level comp but then again has had solid performances against the best. I think jorge is gonna turn this into a gritty striking match and use some funky stand up to change levels and shoot or clinch up and get a trip or something. I think jorge's sub ability and decent top control can keep kj there, but its hard to say that. KJ seems to rarely stay on the mat, which is something I am either ignoring or not giving enough credit. I just think stylistically this match up favors Jorge because he has more ways to win, and is a proven veteran who has seen it all. I got masvidal by decision and I think +145ish isn't too bad... This will be an interesting fight!

What do you all think? Agree, disagree? where am I wrong / what am I missing, and what is your breakdown???

This was virtually identical to my thought process on Griggs and Wilcox and I played them at -130 and +120, respectively. Only question I have for Masvidal - Noons: Will KJ spend the majority of the fight playing with his hair? Havnt seen recent pictures yet. If not, I think he keeps it up (whether Masvidal obliges or not) and wins a close decision.

i think that was a pretty damned good write-up that took a little time and effort to prepare.....but i`m still not sure where you stand on masvidal/noons...

appreciate the effort....

[MMAbetMASTA]

[quote=rocky mattioli;10482367]

i think that was a pretty damned good write-up that took a little time and effort to prepare.....but i`m still not sure where you stand on masvidal/noons...

appreciate the effort....

haha, thanks man I appreciate that! I'm quite new on here, but I've read some of your stuff and you got some good insight as well. I tend to overstate and write too much when I type something out, I end up ramblin'. I'm glad you enjoyed though, I hope you did well last night man.

I ended up only putting $50 on jorge (and got him at a shitty +130), wish I would have put more in retrospect (but we all say this in retrospect haha). I couldn't believe that he outclassed noons like that. What a great performance and great fight. Cheers to jorge!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Overall it was a good night, but check this out haha:

As you can see (and I probably shouldn't be copying and posting this here, but I don't think my small ass bookie site would notice this post lol), my account registered wilcox a win haha!!! I'm sure its a glitch and my balance won't reflect that as a win tomorrow, but I hope it stays because it would be much nicer to win $465 than $265.

It sucks too that fight ended as such. I didn't see it, but read a few play by plays and it seems wilcox was winning both the striking and grappling game, albiet a competitive one as JZ was game. I think that fight was gonna tell alot about both men's futures in the sport.

INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54163901
Jun 18 08:00 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[15506] J WILCOX -115
(G CAVALCANTE vrs J WILCOX)

230 / 200

200
WIN
WIN
06/18/2011 01:56 PM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54134780
Jun 18 10:10 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2333] C GRIGGS -135
(C GRIGGS vrs V OVEREEM)

270 / 200

200
WIN
WIN
06/17/2011 12:00 AM INTERNET / -1Ticket #: 54171118
Jun 18 10:50 PM

MU
STRAIGHT BET
[2341] J MASVIDAL +130
(J MASVIDAL vrs KJ NOONS)

50 / 65

65
WIN
WIN
06/18/2011 06:47 PM

*edit also lost $50 on monson... should have listened to some of you and stayed away from it.

[MMAbetMASTA]

hey I just saw your post on sherdog lol..you posted the exact same info...

haha yea, is your user name on sherdog the same?

I just try to get as much feedback and outside perspective / insight as possible, so I post on that forum as well. Yet sherdog seems to mostly be a bunch of shit talking and hating lol, its hard to get thorough feedback or discussion (although I won't lie I was hating and talkings some ish on reem there today, but nothing too bad haha). That dude Vaughany told me about this site on a sherdog post, and I finally signed up here on sbr! Much, much better discussion in here, especially for legit and serious gambling / prediction talk. You guys know your shit here, so its nice, but I still post on sherdog occasionally especially on fights I am particularly nervous about or want more opinions / insight - such as these SF fights!