[Carseller4]

Hey guys,

Just to bring everyone up to date:

In another thread, blackbe was collecting points to put towards charity donations. I offered, assuming Thad agreed, that I would match up to 1000 points donated. Pretty sweet that people hit the target.

As I said in that thread to Thad, I'm going to consider it an additional loan, that will be paid back after the main one is complete. It won't count towards this contest. Considering it's for charity, and not really me getting new points, I think that's fair. Let me know if you guys don't agree though.

No problems here. Awesome gesture!

[mattmc419]

No problems here. Awesome gesture!

Sweet!

I never realized how much father points go for charity donations. $170 to charity for 1000 points; not even a $50 gift card for the same amount.

[secretstash]

awesome gesture matt

be sure to tell this story in my drs without borders give back thread .. this is a surefire winner

-stash

[mattmc419]

awesome gesture matt

be sure to tell this story in my drs without borders give back thread .. this is a surefire winner

-stash

Thanks man!

I'll definitely post it in there too. I figured that, along with the 1000 points, it would encourage other people to donate too since they knew it would be matched.

[ThaddeusB]

In case it wasn't obvious to everyone, lines are closed until the team contest situation is resolved. Since CS is in line for a big prize, it'll make a big difference if he pays out his usual 25% or some other number.

[secretstash]

thad can we get a line on over/under amount of debt carseller pays within 72hrs of the freeplays being awarded?


maybe even have like a 250 or less -150 line and then different increments like 500+ (+100) / 750 + (+150)/ 2000+(+600) /Pay debt off in full (+2000).. lol have no idea what fair lines would be.

might be fun to bet on

-stash

[ThaddeusB]

thad can we get a line on over/under amount of debt carseller pays within 72hrs of the freeplays being awarded?


maybe even have like a 250 or less -150 line and then different increments like 500+ (+100) / 750 + (+150)/ 2000+(+600) /Pay debt off in full (+2000).. lol have no idea what fair lines would be.

might be fun to bet on

-stash

Yes, once we know how much he gets I will do that.

[Carseller4]

update

pinchy 3195
CS4 3452 (currently in line for 5,000 point FP in Team Contest!)
matt 3928

[zsr]

Cs are you gonna do the 3 team parlay strategy to guarantee big profit? Either way good luck

[Carseller4]

Cs are you gonna do the 3 team parlay strategy to guarantee big profit? Either way good luck

Yes when the time comes, I'm going to get with matt, and stash to make sure I do it correctly...supposedly a 75% payout!

[ThaddeusB]

Yes when the time comes, I'm going to get with matt, and stash to make sure I do it correctly...supposedly a 75% payout!

It's more like 65% if you are doing 3 team parlays at SBR odds.

[mattmc419]

It's more like 65% if you are doing 3 team parlays at SBR odds.

Looks like it's 72.5% for a 3-teamer in the SBR book, compared to the usual 74.5% (2% reduction)

A 4-teamer hedge gives 76.8% normally, but the huge juice in the SBR book makes it only 62.5% (crazy 14.3% reduction)

[ThaddeusB]

Looks like it's 72.5% for a 3-teamer in the SBR book, compared to the usual 74.5% (2% reduction)

A 4-teamer hedge gives 76.8% normally, but the huge juice in the SBR book makes it only 62.5% (crazy 14.3% reduction)

Must be the 4 teamer I was thinking of then. I use ML underdogs for my FPs, so I wasn't aware of the exact #s.

[zsr]

Matt, is the 3 team parlay thing just you play every possible outcome of the 3 teams? Never thought of doing that but on actual money sites 75 percent cash bonus basically, sounds pretty good lol.

[mattmc419]

Matt, is the 3 team parlay thing just you play every possible outcome of the 3 teams? Never thought of doing that but on actual money sites 75 percent cash bonus basically, sounds pretty good lol.

Yeah, there's 8 possible combinations, so just bet 1/8th of your freeplay on each one.

I've never tried it on a real book, because a couple people have told me that they look down on it. I also rarely have a real FP though, so I haven't taken the time to investigate whether it's allowed or not.

Also, as I said in the last post, the 4-teamer strategy returns 76.8%, so about 2.3% better than 3-teamers. There's 16 combinations though, so it's up to you if it's worth the extra time.

If you need it, I can send you a chart that helps make sure you place each combination without duplication easier.

[Carseller4]

Got it figured out.

8....3 team parlays....3 teams every combination.

5000 divided by 8 is 625

Winning payout would be 3723

568 to payoff stash (and get out of his lousy loan restrictions) would leave balance at 3155

2 300 point contributions to charity (600 points) would leave balance 2555

2055 points to thad getting my balance to him down to 827

That still would leave me with 500 points!

[mattmc419]

Winning payout would be 3625, so 98 less than your calculations. Still a lot though.

Or put it all on the Lions to win the superbowl, and you'll never need another loan again

[ThaddeusB]

Winning payout would be 3625, so 98 less than your calculations. Still a lot though.

Or put it all on the Lions to win the superbowl, and you'll never need another loan again

Like Carseller could ever dream of being patient enough to wait 2 months for a payoff.

[mattmc419]

Like Carseller could ever dream of being patient enough to wait 2 months for a payoff.

lmao guess I didn't think that one out, did I?

[Optional]

Yeah, there's 8 possible combinations, so just bet 1/8th of your freeplay on each one.

I've never tried it on a real book, because a couple people have told me that they look down on it. I also rarely have a real FP though, so I haven't taken the time to investigate whether it's allowed or not.

Also, as I said in the last post, the 4-teamer strategy returns 76.8%, so about 2.3% better than 3-teamers. There's 16 combinations though, so it's up to you if it's worth the extra time.

If you need it, I can send you a chart that helps make sure you place each combination without duplication easier.

Doesn't this work a little better with big dogs on one side? Like hockey puck lines?

I 'think' using -250/+220, or thereabouts, lines you end up with something like a 33% chance of 60%, 33% chance of 90% and 33% chance of 120%.

You sound like you know what you're doing with this... would you mind checking that out?

[mattmc419]

Doesn't this work a little better with big dogs on one side? Like hockey puck lines?

I 'think' using -250/+220, or thereabouts, lines you end up with something like a 33% chance of 60%, 33% chance of 90% and 33% chance of 120%.

You sound like you know what you're doing with this... would you mind checking that out?

Yeah, I'll run the numbers on that. It seems to me, though, that you'd be placing the best odds of winning the -250/-250/-250 combination, which would be under a 22% return. Of course, you'd have a chance to win the +220/+220/+220 combination, which would return 397%.

Everything else would be within that range, so it's taking a risk and introducing variance.

Here's a breakdown:

-250 team has an implied probability of 71.43% to win. Denote as Option "1"
+220 team has an implied probability of 31.25% to win. Denote as Option "2"

Possible combinations:
1,1,1 (36.4%)
1,2,1 (15.9%)
1,1,2 (15.9%)
1,2,2 (7.0%)
2,1,1 (15.9%)
2,2,1 (7.0%)
2,1,2 (7.0%)
2,2,2 (3.0%)

Since the odds are equal for all 3 teams in this example, a lot of those above possibilities have the same chance to win and the same payouts, and can be set equal to each other:

1,1,1 (1/8 ways) = A = 36.4%
1,1,2 (3/8 ways) = B = 47.7%
2,2,1 (3/8 ways) = C = 21.0%
2,2,2 (1/8 ways) = D = 3.0%

A: 36.4% chance to win a 21.8% return
B: 47.7% chance to win a 65.9% return
C: 21.0% chance to win a 166.7% return
D: 3.0% chance to win a 397.1% return

So,

0.364(21.8)+0.477(65.9)+.21(166.7)+0.03( 397.1) = 86.28%

The implied probabilities seem a little off, since they add up to over 100% (lol), but you'd have a rough expected value of a little under 86.28%.

Remember it's introducing variance though, so that's just an expected outcome over time. But you're right, in the long run it'll probably be better than the -110/-110/-110 option.

Not sure how often you'll find 3 lines exactly like that though, and it's a lot of analysis to do.

[Optional]

Thanks Matt. A little more risky than I thought. But the gambler in me likes the idea of 63.6% chance of doing better than -110 lines.

Probably not a good risk for Carseller though, unless he wants to split his FP up and try and do this maybe 8 times. But that does sound like a lot of work.

[ThaddeusB]

The return from a FP comes from the +number combined with the market juice. So, for example you could bet +500 FP and -600 cash and get a good return:

100 pt FP on +500
430 "cash" on -600

If FP wins you get 500-430=70
If cash wins you get 430/6=71.6
=~71% return

In practice, you can actually do a lot better than that if you hedge with real cash when the SBR money line is a good price. So maybe you get +500 and -550:

100 pt FP on +500
$29.75 cash (=425 points at 7¢/pt) on -550

If FP wins you get 500-425=75
If cash wins you get 425/5=77.3
=~76% return

The higher the +number and/or the lower the market juice the better return you get. (You can also parlay two ML dogs at different time slots and hedge twice, etc.) The best return I've seen was something like 97% on a +2000 one place/-2000 elsewhere type situation (that was cash to cash, as SBR doesn't allow lines >+1000).

Thaddeus

[ThaddeusB]

thad can we get a line on over/under amount of debt carseller pays within 72hrs of the freeplays being awarded?


maybe even have like a 250 or less -150 line and then different increments like 500+ (+100) / 750 + (+150)/ 2000+(+600) /Pay debt off in full (+2000).. lol have no idea what fair lines would be.

might be fun to bet on

-stash

OK, we know Carseller is getting 2400 point FP. It should be awarded Wednesday or so, so line will be points paid between Wednesday and Sunday. Note ofr purpose of this bet, a donation to Doctors Without Borders will count as payout.

over 301 -250
under 301 +220

over 500 -160
under 500 +140

over 750 -110
under 750 -110

over 1000 +150
under 1000 -175

over 1500 +300
under 1500 -350

Max bet is 100/to win 100 per line.

Have fun,
Thaddeus

[mattmc419]

Under 1000 is free money. He has to send 600 of his 1740 to charity, so that only leaves 140 left to gamble with.

[ThaddeusB]

Under 1000 is free money. He has to send 600 of his 1740 to charity, so that only leaves 140 left to gamble with.

"Note for purpose of this bet, a donation to Doctors Without Borders will count as payout."

So, I'm actually saying there is a fairly significant chance he won't even make the 2 donations and that on average I'm only expecting 150 to go to lenders after Doctors is paid.

Thaddeus

[mattmc419]

"Note for purpose of this bet, a donation to Doctors Without Borders will count as payout."

So, I'm actually saying there is a fairly significant chance he won't even make the 2 donations and that on average I'm only expecting 150 to go to lenders after Doctors is paid.

Thaddeus

oh haha, lets pin my lack of reading on the Lions being 1 yd from missing the playoffs earlier too then

If he doesn't make the 2 donations, I'm definitely going to jump on the angry bandwagon.

[mattmc419]

Alright, probably a -EV bet, but I'm going to trust that he won't screw the charity over twice in a few day span.

over 301 (-250) - Risk 250 to win 100

[Carseller4]

short version of what I posted in the other thread...

One thing is certain...I WILL make a 300 points donation to the Dr.'s.

Probably going to appeal stash's penalty...I am laying out my case right now.

Another certain thing is I will pay off stash completely...his penalties are not worth it. After that I'm concentrating on paying off thad like a laser beam.

[secretstash]

im assuming I can bet on credit thad? (I have a +450 credit balance with u anyway )

-stash

[secretstash]

how can u appeal my penalty?

the voting public already said u owe the pts.. not to mention the choice is mine to begin with.

sorry man but u definitely owe me the 250 pt penalty at this pt.

-stash

[secretstash]

3 major times u broke the rules and should therefore have the penalty enacted.

1. U stole 500pts from thad = effectively gambling with pts = a loan.. 250 pt penalty

2. U stole 300 pts from me and from a charity and gambled = a loan = 250 pt penalty.

3. u either A. didnt wager yismans fp or u did and then u lost the winnings in casino = major failure = gambling = 250pt penalty.

basically there is a 99.98 chance u owe me 250pt penalty at this pt.. so just pay it and pay some to charity and be done with it.

its that simple.

-stash

[Carseller4]

3 major times u broke the rules and should therefore have the penalty enacted.

1. U stole 500pts from thad = effectively gambling with pts = a loan.. 250 pt penalty

2. U stole 300 pts from me and from a charity and gambled = a loan = 250 pt penalty.

3. u either A. didnt wager yismans fp or u did and then u lost the winnings in casino = major failure = gambling = 250pt penalty.

basically there is a 99.98 chance u owe me 250pt penalty at this pt.. so just pay it and pay some to charity and be done with it.

its that simple.

-stash

This ensures I will only be able to donate once to charity. I am considering paying the penalty of 250 points but only after I have paid the main loan in full, and there is no other penalties involved on the penalty payment. You get your 250 point penalty, and I become penalty free. I could go with something like this.

[mattmc419]

Penalty or no penalty, the deal was that you would make up for gambling the charity points by making a 2nd donation.

sorry I have to suggest this, but it is what it is:

Stash, the point of your contest was to get money to Dr's. (guess I'm changing my vote to yes, because it was only a no if he willingly made both donations)

Go ahead and invoke the first penalty if you want.

You still have 2 'pending' penalties that could be given as well. Personally, I suggest giving a 2nd one if he doesn't make the 2nd payment to charity that he promised, and then just donate it yourself.

With 1740 points, there's nothing that should "ensure" he can only donate once.

[ThaddeusB]

Alright, probably a -EV bet, but I'm going to trust that he won't screw the charity over twice in a few day span.

over 301 (-250) - Risk 250 to win 100

Good luck. I too assume he'll make at least one 300 point donation, that's why the line is 301.