[mebaran]

Interesting news about the Dodgers. Apparently Selig and the MLB are taking over the team. Guess that means they are out of the Pujols race....that only leaves the Mets (who are also in financial trouble), the Phillies (who are already set with 1B), and the Cardinals and Cubs. hmmm...

[mebaran]

Just to carry forward, no plays for today. Tonight I will post plays for 4/22

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/22:
Rays -120
Red Sox -110
Dodgers -125
Astros +185

Taking a stroll on the wild side with Figueroa on the hump for the 'stros.

[mebaran]

adding:
LAD/CHC Over 8 -115

Outfield is soggy, but wind is blowing E at 15-20 mph, and Coleman is far from good

[bhssoccer89]

lets get hella runs, hopefully some in the first inning

[mebaran]

lets get hella runs, hopefully some in the first inning

Does somebody have a 1st inning bet in play?

I hope they score early and often just so the game doesn't have a chance of being rain out undered...

[Punter4Life]

I like the Tigers tonight.

[mebaran]

I like the Tigers tonight.

Interesting. I was leaning towards the Chi-Sox actually, but it is a no play for me at this price

[bhssoccer89]

i am doing a small first inning system it works pretty well and it made profit last year

[mebaran]

Today's results: 3-2, +0.80 units
Overall: 52-50-4, +0.44 units

May have a few plays tomorrow pending all pitcher adjustments from the rainouts today

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/23:
White Sox -116
Red Sox -104
Dodgers +113
ATL/SF Over 6 -120

[mebaran]

^ Two of the HOTTEST hitters in the whole league (Ethier, Kemp) up against the Cubs righty Ryan Dempster. Called last night's game between them correctly, and I feel Dodgers are on a huge roll here.

Note: A lot of the time, when the Cubs are playing at home, the price on them is inflated. When in doubt on picking a game involving the Cubs at home, fade the north-siders. If you did this blindly, I wouldn't be surprised if you were + units by the end of the year.

on everyone's plays today.

[mebaran]

Shouldn't really be giving this to all of you, but I'm in a generous mood right now. The following is what you would have made betting against the Cubs every time they were at home for the past 580 Cubs home games:

SU: 304-276 (0.2 rpg)
average line: -148 / +133
on / against: -$9,168 / +$5,600
ROI: -10.4% / +9.1%

Feel free to expand on this if you want.

[bhssoccer89]

everyone knows to fade the cubs because they are such a let down team im sick of it

[mebaran]

everyone knows to fade the cubs because they are such a let down team im sick of it

That, and I feel like there is something else in play. Public teams (Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, etc.) tend to have their home field advantages blown up too large.

[mebaran]

adding:
PHI/SD Under 3.5 1st 5 innings -110

[BeatingBaseball]

I was looking to fade the Dodgers in this series and take Chicago largely because the Cubs wouldn't see Kershaw, they had shown some life coming off losses these first few weeks, they had a day off coming in versus the Dodgers hitting the road playing their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive games without an off day - and also in consideration of the general team turmoil surrounding the Dodgers' ownership situation.

I sure can't say I had it right -lost with the Cubs yesterday on a horrible performance by Coleman and got very lucky with them today with that 5 run 8th after Dempster had blown the early 5-1 lead. But coming off today's comeback win and with the way Zambrano has been throwing of late (esp at Wrigley) I do believe the Cubs get the series tomorrow.

Looking ahead to Monday - I see even greater opportunity to fade LA in the FLA series (esp if they're coming off a loss to Zambrano) where they'll be playing their 18th, 19th and 20th consecutive before finally getting an off day Thursday. I think they'll lose at least 2 of the 3 to what is a very solid Florida club (notwithstanding today's loss to the Rockies).

[mebaran]

I was looking to fade the Dodgers in this series and take Chicago largely because the Cubs wouldn't see Kershaw, they had shown some life coming off losses these first few weeks, they had a day off coming in versus the Dodgers hitting the road playing their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive games without an off day - and also in consideration of the general team turmoil surrounding the Dodgers' ownership situation.

I sure can't say I had it right -lost with the Cubs yesterday on a horrible performance by Coleman and got very lucky with them today with that 5 run 8th after Dempster had blown the early 5-1 lead. But coming off today's comeback win and with the way Zambrano has been throwing of late (esp at Wrigley) I do believe the Cubs get the series tomorrow.

Looking ahead to Monday - I see even greater opportunity to fade LA in the FLA series (esp if they're coming off a loss to Zambrano) where they'll be playing their 18th, 19th and 20th consecutive before finally getting an off day Thursday. I think they'll lose at least 2 of the 3 to what is a very solid Florida club (notwithstanding today's loss to the Rockies).

Yeah, people wonder why I get upset when they claim baseball players don't really need to be in shape...are you kidding? Guys like Ethier, Kemp, the meat and potatoes guys, will maybe get 5 games off a year if healthy. It's unbelievable how conditioned they are. Much respect.

Will take a deeper look at the LAD/FLA series.

[mebaran]

Today's games: 3-2, +0.84 units
Overall: 55-52-4, +1.28 units

Was on the Rockies as well, but play was not posted. Tough loss in the Cubs game, tough loss in the Bulls game, but positive units for the day.

[mebaran]

Plays for Easter Sunday:
Rockies +135
COL/FLA Over 6.5 -125
Padres +175

[mebaran]

Today's results: 1-2, -1.00 units
Overall: 56-54-4, +0.28 units

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/25:
Yankees -187
CHW/NY Over 10 -105
Rangers -155
Athletics +139
ATL/SD Over 6.5 -120

[mebaran]

My model spit out some large favorites as plays for 4/25. Should be interesting.

[mebaran]

Lines are in agreement with every play except the ATL/SD Over 6.5

If anyone is interested in tracking the closing lines in this thread, it would be pretty helpful.

[bhssoccer89]

How does your model not know that Phil humber is going to no hit the yanks

[mebaran]

How does your model not know that Phil humber is going to no hit the yanks

Because my model is not self-aware...yet. Definitely a strange night in baseball.

Yesterday's plays went a depressing 1-4, -4.67 units
Overall: 57-58-4, -4.39 units

May or may not have some plays today, leaning on the side of none because I haven't had any chance to look.

[bhssoccer89]

Haha I posted that in hopes it would be a jinx and the yankees would break out but no such luck

[mebaran]

Haha I posted that in hopes it would be a jinx and the yankees would break out but no such luck

Thanks for playing your part. LOL!

Note: Officially not dispersing any plays for today. Will be back on later tonight to post some plays for overnight lines for the 4/27 games.

[mebaran]

Thanks for playing your part. LOL!

Note: Officially not dispersing any plays for today. Will be back on later tonight to post some plays for overnight lines for the 4/27 games.

Taking one more day off. I was out watching the Bulls and Hawks games and haven't gotten any capping in. I promise I'll have plays for Thursday's games!

[mebaran]

Plays for 4/28:
Royals +145
KC/CLE Under 9 -125 (2 UNITS)
Tigers -1.5 +175

Good luck today everyone

[bhssoccer89]

Fml I took the over by mistake

[bhssoccer89]

Fml I took the over by mistake

[mebaran]

-4.50 units today, taking a break. Will be back for some weekend games when I have some more time to cap them.

Overall: 57-61-4, -8.89 units

OUCHHHH!

[mebaran]

On a good note...both my fantasy baseball teams are smashing faces because of Bautista

[Punter4Life]

-4.50 units today, taking a break. Will be back for some weekend games when I have some more time to cap them.

Overall: 57-61-4, -8.89 units

OUCHHHH!

Hang in there.

On a good note...both my fantasy baseball teams are smashing faces because of Bautista

Good for you!