Despite his solid 3.16 ERA and the fact he's on the plus side in the Units Won column this season, Colorado's Aaron Cook is a hurler to fade in the future with the Rockies simply a shell of their former selves. On the other side of that coin, San Francisco's Jonathan Sanchez sports an ERA nearly a run higher than Cook's, yet is one to put on your follow list with the lefty +8.2 units in the black.
That didn’t take long. Earlier this week, I recommended Jarrod Washburn of the Seattle Mariners as the prime fade candidate in the American League, and Joe Saunders of the Los Angeles Angels as the value pitcher most worth following on the junior circuit.
Washburn and the M’s lost that night to the Halos. On Tuesday, Saunders allowed one Seattle run in seven innings. The Angels went on to sweep the three-game series.
It won’t always be that easy for Saunders; the M’s have the worst on-base percentage in the majors at .306. But until the betting public gets to know his name and face, the Angels should remain a value pick whenever he’s on the mound.
Now we move to the National League, where the winds of change continue to reshape the league. The Milwaukee Brewers have won nine of 10, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks and dropping the Snakes to 12-20 since the end of April. This is a volatile betting market just waiting to be exploited. Here are my top fade/follow candidates to help you get there.
Fade
Aaron Cook, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have hit hard times after last year’s storybook run to the playoffs. Anyone in the starting rotation not named Aaron Cook has been brutal. That’s ominous, although not as ominous as Colorado’s 10-9 loss to the Cubs last week at Wrigley Field.
Cook gave up seven runs in 6.1 innings of work that day; his ERA is still sitting pretty at 3.16, but his unusually high 76.4 percent of runners stranded is a red flag. So is his 4.13 xFIP. Cook has hoarded 5.71 units in profit up to this point, leading Colorado to nine wins in 13 starts. The under is 8-1 when the Rockies win and 0-4 when they lose.
Follow
Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants: Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez has been the talk of the majors with a 1.32 ERA and 8.44 units of profit. Sanchez has been toiling in obscurity for the post-Bonds Giants, and the fireballing southpaw’s numbers aren’t as impressive: 4.08 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 36 walks allowed in 68.1 innings.
But Sanchez is one of the most coveted pitching prospects in the game; he was ranked No. 2 by Baseball America last year. The Giants have won nine of his 12 starts for 8.2 units of profit, and they’re going to win more behind Sanchez and his big-time fastball.
Weekend series to watch...
Cardinals at Astros
Game 1: Friday, 8:05 p.m. Eastern
STL: Braden Looper
HOU: Brian Moehler
Game 2: Saturday, 7:05 p.m.
STL: Adam Wainwright
HOU: Shawn Chacon
The Astros come into this series at 31-30 after losing seven of their last eight games. Two of those were at the new Busch Stadium, as Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse picked up the wins for St. Louis. Houston started the season with low expectations at 40-1 to win the World Series; make that 50-1 as of last week. The Cards have improved from 22-1 to 20-1 by keeping pace with the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is three games behind the Cubs at 36-26, going 12-6 since May 17.
Friday’s opener is Houston’s best chance of pouncing on the Cardinals. The visitors are coming off a doubleheader in D.C., with the second game going into the 10th before the Washington Nationals escaped with a 10-9 win to salvage a split. The Cards used five relievers in each contest.
Houston lost 4-3 to the Pirates at PNC Park on Thursday, but only needed one inning each from Chris Sampson and Doug Brocail. The MLB betting odds have the Astros as -115 faves in Game 1 with a total of 9½ runs.
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National League pitchers to fade or follow
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