[BeatingBaseball]

TB - FF, ML, AltRL 1/2

Yeah, the Rangers have tremendous momentum - the Rays no longer figure to win the series - but at plus money and their backs to the wall - the best road club in baseball is the play today.

Garza may be iffy - but this is his 5th post season start. He has experienced and won big games in October - and if he doesn't have it today he won't be out there long.

Colby Lewis is making his 1st post season start. He is not Halladay or Lincecum. His curve and change are less than big league average. He has two plus pitches - FB, SL. He is great vs RHers with his SL - but is vulnerable to LHers. You can be sure Joe Maddon will be stacking leftys in his lineup today (read Matt Joyce). The Rays will be looking to lay off the SL - hit the FB and any mistakes. Lewis is a fly ball pitcher. Rangers Ballpark is HR friendly. The Rays were the highest scoring road club of 2010 (52 more road runs than any other club).

Expect a Game 4.

[zeusky]

Yep, I expect Rays to take this one. GL!!

[BeatingBaseball]

Yep, I expect Rays to take this one. GL!!

Garza was up to it - Rays came through for us - even though Lewis also pitched well and got the FF money.

Now we need one for today.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF – FF, ML, RL ½

The series that should have been as good as over is now anything but.

Friday night’s loss was really a shocker – a tough one for both the Giants and my bankroll to swallow. They'll now have to pass a huge test today - and do it against a Braves club that has to be sky high and has been almost unbeatable at home.

Can the Giants bounce back as a team? I say yes – something special about this bunch - I think they have the character, stones and leadership (Bochy) to overcome the situation.

As usual - most of it will come down to the pitching - two quality starters today who couldn’t be more polar opposites.

Hudson is a RH ground ball machine who pitches to contact (like Lowe) and walks very few.

Sanchez is a LH, high K and high BB, fly ball pitcher who - when he’s on - has the stuff of aces.

The biggest question is - will Sanchez be on? He’s been great in September – much better than Hudson – but if he does not have his command it will be evident early and I’ll be wishing all bets were off.

The Giants have a very RH lineup – Aubrey Huff is about the only threat form the left side. That would seem great for Hudson – but the Giants RHers (esp Sandoval) hit RHers very well – Posey hits them and so does Burrell.

The best thing I see in the matchups - a big edge for a LH fly ball pitcher like Sanchez - is that all the Braves power threats are LHers (Heyward, McCann, Ankiel). I like that a lot.

Beyond Sanchez being wild - my other big concern here is that Cox has so many good arms in the pen that he can play matchup in any situation he needs to from the 6th inning on. Getting the big hit may be a challenge once again.

Should be a great game - Let's hope that a lot of those infield grounders are hit toward Braves’ 2nd baseman Conrad – I’m sure Hudson hopes they are not - Cox is taking big chances with him out there defensively – maybe he gets burned by it today.

[BeatingBaseball]

We cash FF and ML.

Haven't written a more prescient sentence all year than the last sentence of the analysis. You can't hide a guy at 2nd in the big leagues - the ball will always find him. Forget that he can hit - I'll take the guy at 2nd who makes the plays.

Great game. Sanchez was fantastic. Didn't cover the RL 1/2 play - but the series bet is looking healthy once again.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF - FF, ML, RL 1/2

Of all the baseball games today – this has to be the best one to bet on.

SF has a free shot. I think they’ll cash it.

The Giants are coming off a big wet kiss from the baseball gods in for what will forever be known in Atlanta as “The Brooks Conrad Game.” The visitors' clubhouse has to be loose with confidence while the home side is on suicide watch. SF also knows they have Timmy Leprechuan teed up for a home game Wednesday if they have to play it. The Braves know it as well. The team dynamics could not be more Giants.

Although Lowe has been great and figures to be no less so on 3 days, I have to go with all that Giants’ team momentum - and Bumgarner. Although he’s only 21 yrs old with no playoff experience - he pitched great in September (just like their Big Three did) and beat out Zito for the 4th ball in this series.

In the Giants’ rotation Bumgarner is the plain vanilla. He’s primarily FB, SL (about 60%, 25%) and mixes in some CVs, CHs. Although his #1 is not all that impressive by today’s standards (90 or barely over) - he spots it effectively. Although his SL is not super nasty like Sanchez and he won’t have as big an edge vs Heyward, McCann and Ankiel - he’s still left handed. You can’t say he’s really a high strikeout pitcher - but in September his punchouts/9 improved greatly at 1 per inning. He also does not walk many guys. As to ground ball/fly ball pitcher - he’s not predominantly either one - but he manages to keeps it in the park. He gives up hits - but seems to make the pitches with men on base. As long as he is locating he is effective - and that’s what he’s been doing. And with an off day Tuesday, Bochy has a lot of freedom to use the pen if needed (insert comments here).

For Bobby Cox - he has the ultimate flexibility in use of the pen tonight - but I hope it doesn't come to a game of bullpen matchups - I'm looking for the Giants to break out - a statement game that will send a message to the Phils and their cocky fans.

At +1.31 the win expectation is .4329. Winning this play 44/100 makes money. Wish we could play it 100 times.

[BeatingBaseball]

So far so good. We're 3-0 on ML winners (all dogs) since we started this thread on Saturday and even called the shot on the Brooks Conrad debacle to boot (pun intended).

For Tuesday: TEX - FF, ML, RL 1/2

The TB Rays are an excellent baseball team - better than the Rangers. And normally, I'd say a visiting club’s chances of beating them at The Trop 3 times in a 5 game series would approximate those of Charles Manson at his next parole hearing.

That said - if I could pick any pitcher in MLB to give the ball to for a “win or go home” game - Roy Halladay would be my second choice. Cliff Lee would be my first.

Nolan Ryan & Co. did not bring Lee to the Rangers to face the Orioles in July. They acquired him specifically to pitch this game. With Lee on the mound - I have to take the Rangers – simple as that.

David Price is a great young pitcher - but he makes mistakes (see Cruz, Molina bombs gm 1). He is not the stone cold killer that Lee is. If one of the two is going to leave a cookie in the middle of the plate in a situation in a huge game like this – it won’t be Dr. Lee. And it will be game over.

Joe Maddon, who wins the managerial matchup hands down, did everything he could to mess with Lee’s rhythm in the first game and nothing worked. He had his hitters asking for time, stepping out and trying every trick in the book - but once Lee got out of that first inning he owned them. Surely Uncle Joe will try to do it again - he may even come up with something new. Don’t be surprised if there’s a problem with the lights or the sprinklers go off while Lee is out there tonight. But whatever happens - expect the same result. Lee outpitched Price in Gm 1 and he will do it again.

Outside of the starting pitching - the Rays win most of the matchups - but the two starting pitchers is what matters most.

The other guy that matters a lot in a game like this is the one calling the balls and strikes. Jeff Kellogg was at 1st in Gm 4 so unless Tim Welke changes his crew rotation (unlikely but he has the right to do it) Kellogg will be behind the plate. I’m sure both Lee and Price could name some blue they’d rather have back there (read Hirschbeck, Bell, Miller, Runge) - but they also could have done a lot worse (read Hunter Wendelstedt or C.B. Bucknor). Kellogg’s plate jobs have averaged 6.2 BBs, 13.9 Ks and 8.8 runs per game – not a big K zone but not too bad either. His totals have been slightly to the OV at 17-15-2, esp when the total is low like this (5-3-2 against totals 8 or less). And his last 4 went 3-0-1 to the OV. But Kellogg has a pretty consistent zone - the main thing. They both should be able to adjust and deal with it (esp Lee).

There have been some great games already this post season - but this may be the best yet.

I say the Rangers get their first post season series win and that the long ball will be key.

[J-Ro11]

hey, thanks for the write-up.

ill throw ya some points after the v

[J-Ro11]

beating baseball

[BeatingBaseball]

beating baseball

Thanks for the points, J-Ro. Hope you got a good piece of that score.

[BeatingBaseball]

Post season selections on this thread - all underdogs so far - have gone 4-0 vs the money line.

Today’s pick is another dog -

TEX Gm 1 – FF, ML, RL ½

TEX – Series Play


Yes - the Yankees are the Yankees.
Yes – NY demolished the Twins in 3 straight with 3 RL covers.
And yes – NY caught a break when the Rays/Rangers went 5 games and took Lee off Gm 1.
But - there is also something special about a club that goes 3-0 on the road as post season dogs.
Also – NY and TEX split 4-4 in 8 games this year – but the home team was 7-1.
Also - have to like the Rangers being just 2 days off a historic win. Yanks might have sat too long after sweep.



CJ Wilson
Wilson has 16 W’s - but in his 34 starts the Rangers have 25 W’s – TEX has gone 25-9 in Wilson’s 2010 starts including the playoff win over the Rays. They also went 6-3 in his 9 starts as an underdog. In the Division Series vs the Rays he went 6.1 innings and gave up 2 hits - they haven’t scored off him yet.

Wilson very tough on LH hitters – he Ks a ton of them with his cutter and SL - gets a lot of ground balls on his 2 seamer. He is behind in the count more than Lee is - but in his win over the Rays he was like Lee in that he got stronger as the game went on. Making him a starter was one of the great calls of the year by Washington and Maddux (and a ballsy one) - easy to forget that the season started with Feldman and Harden, not Lee and Wilson, at the top of their roation. (Molina was not the catcher either – another great move).


CC Sabathia
Is it just me or what? Everyone keeps saying Sabathia is so dominant – he logged 6 innings vs Twins - he gave up 4 runs. He looked like he was having trouble keeping his SL down - he was going to his CV rather than his SL to get the LHers out. Personally - I think the big man may be heading for a rough one. Plus Gerry Davis is behind the plate tonight - Davis has the tightest K zone of the ALCS umpires. Brian Gorman - who I think will have Pettitte/Lee in Gm 3 - is by far the most pitcher friendly of the bunch. Davis tonight will of course be a challenge for Wilson as well. Expect some BBs tonight - either that or the pitchers' will have to take some chances in the middle of the plate (where the long balls are).


Mariano Rivera
This man has been the greatest of all time – but if the remarks on Sabathia are not blasphemy enough for Yankee fans – these will be. I doubt any announcers will say it on the air – but Mariano’s age is beginning to show – it happens to everybody. He is no longer a 9Ks/9inn kind of closer – he’s more like a 6 per 9. They are actually hitting the ball on him. You could almost say he now pitches to contact - although so far it is still weak contact. For the first time - he may be vulnerable in October – and if the Rangers do get him it will be the end of an era and would really turn the tables psychologically.


Lee in 3 & 5 vs 1& 7
There would certainly have been an edge for the Rangers in Lee going 1 & 5. If he won a game 1 over Sabathia there would no question be a psychological leg up in the series - if he won both 1 & 5 it would have forced the Yanks to win the LCS on the road in a game 6 or 7 at Arlington – and probably the biggest advantage of Lee in 1 & 5 would have been that you could use him out of the pen in a potential game 7. (If you want to see a crazy idea re regaining this edge – see *Crazy Idea* below).

But I don't think Lee going 3 & 5 is all that big - yes the Rangers have their #2 vs the Yankees #1 here in Gm 1 – but the main thing remains the main thing – to win the pennant the Rangers have to win 2 games which Lee does not start. That would be true if Lee pitched Gms 1 & 5 or if he pitches Gms 3 & 7.


Rangers Trending Long Term
When the 2010 season opened - the Angels were favored to repeat as AL West champs –
but the Texas Rangers came out on top.

When Cliff Lee went on the market in July – the Yankees were favored win the auction -
but the Texas Rangers came out on top.

When the ALDS opened in Tampa Bay - the Rays were favored to win it –
but the Rangers came out on top.

As the ALCS opens Friday – the Yankees are favored to win it –
but… Do you sense a trend here?

When it comes to trends and sports betting - it’s generally more profitable to participate than to anticipate.
I’m picking the Rangers to come out on top.


*Crazy Idea*
I’m sure Ron Washington would never do this – but he and Dr. Lee could really go down in history if he did.
Consider - flipping the Lee out of the pen in gm 7 script - pitching him if necessary for an inning of relief tonight in Gm 1.

I can guarantee you that today is a throwing day for Lee anyway – he would normally be scheduled for a bullpen session today since it’s the middle day of 5 days rest - he pitched Tuesday and will pitch game 3 Monday – today is the middle day – it would make no difference physically – and it would be just like pitching out of the pen in a game 7 where he’d also be pitching on 2 days off a start.

The reason to do it - I think this particular Gm 1 is just as important as a game 7 – esp given the game 2 matchup. I hope the Rangers realize just how important tonight's game is. I’m not saying Colby Lewis is not good – he pitched very well in the loss to TB – but the performance of Phil Hughes vs the Twins was scary good. Hughes is a potential Cy Young winner in the near future - and he may have come of age in that game. If the Rangers lose Gm 1 they are in very big trouble - even Lee can’t save them unless they reach game 7. If they drop game 1 - he might get out there only once in the series.

If the Rangers actually do the Crazy Idea they would have to skip Lee's bullpen session early - and the Yanks and Broadcasters should have a lead on it by game time.

Would also be nice to see Kinsler move up in the lineup for this Series - Kinsler is seeing it and hitting it while Michael Young seems to be struggling with pitches away.

[OTL]

Also – NY and TEX split 4-4 in 8 games this year – but the home team was 7-1.

I see the professional journalists bring this up in every analysis of this series too, but it's irrelevant IMO. What they fail to mention is that the late season series sweep of the Yankees likely only occured because Pettite and A-Rod were still on the DL, and the Yanks were resting a lot of their other starters in preparation for the playoffs/intentionally losing to avoid a first round clash with Cliff Lee. Discount that last series and the Yanks swept Texas 4-0.

[BeatingBaseball]

I certainly see your point. You can discount it if you wish.

We can discount a lot of things (sometimes at our peril) - but it's still the record.

GL - Hope it's a great series. Hope even more that the Rangers cash.

[isg2010]

BB - can you help a rookie out.

What does the FF & 1/2 mean in your pick?

[BeatingBaseball]

BB - can you help a rookie out.

What does the FF & 1/2 mean in your pick?

isg -

FF = a First Five Innings wager.

1/2 = a play at 1/2 the standard amount (1/2 the amount wagered on the other two plays).

When you bet an equivalent amount on a dog for FF and ML - even a split of the two plays makes money - so you have two shots at the money - one with your starter and one (hopefully) vs their bullpen. Once you get the FF in - you essentially have a free shot - you no longer have the bet YOU have to win out there - you have the bet THE HOUSE has to win out there - you're going to make money across the two plays - it's only a question of how much.

The RL plays are valuable as bonus money on a dog - or to mitigate the price on a favorite.

GL to you.

[BeatingBaseball]

That one left a mark - even though we got the FF money.

In playoff baseball - you have got to be able to get the last 6 outs - and they're a lot harder to get.

That is exactly why I posted the *Crazy Idea* - which doesn't seem so crazy at the moment.

[BeatingBaseball]

One of the most amazing things about baseball is how during the regular season a team can hide a weakness and get away with even a major deficiency for weeks on end - but when the games get big - esp in the playoffs - it will be exposed almost every time. If you have any kind of leak in the boat it's guaranteed to be exposed in a playoff game like last night. And one of the main things that has to be air tight is the the 8th/9th inning bullpen and the handling thereof.

Wilson was great - deserved to win - handled Davis' tight strike zone far better than CC did. I'm sure Washington went first to Darren O because he was the only one out there with playoff expereince - but Oliver fires from the side across his body and across the plate - Gerry Davis behind the plate is very tough on a guy like that - you're better off with more vertical movement through the zone - a guy who throws high 3/4 or over the top. The last thing you want are BBs in that spot. Holland would have been a better choice. Felt sorry for Oliver. He's a solid pro and he must feel awful.

Also - everyone knows that Michael Young is not the best pair of hands at 3rd - and even though that ball was scorched - a lot of 3rd basemen come up with it - plus although he had 2 hits they were both on mistakes in and over - he isn't handling anything away - esp vs Mariano in the 9th when it really mattered.

So close - so frustrating - so many chances to add runs and end it. The Yankees are good - but they were very lucky as well (how about Thames' shattered bat hit off Holland).

It's going to be very tough for the Rangers now. Maybe impossible.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF - FF, ML, RevRL 1/2

When you take +1.52 - your break even % is less than 40%. If you can win 4 of 10 you make money.

When you can get a Tim Lincecum pitching for what is at least the 2nd best club in the NL at that price - it's an easy call - you take him. You take him no matter who he is facing.

Halladay and the Phils may well win this game - but anyone who takes them is making a bad percentage play.

[BeatingBaseball]

We cash both the FF and the ML - missing only the bonus money on the RL.


Cody Ross, Pat Burrell had the big swings - Lincecum made the big pitches and got the big outs when he had to.


Post season selections on this thread - all dogs so far - have now gone 5-1 vs the ML.

Our only ML loser has been the Rangers' blown 5-0 Gm 1 lead as a result of the Yankees' infamous 5 run 8th.


Game Note - for anyone who thinks that analyzing umpires is over rated or not that important – it’s not, and it is. The betting total on last night’s game was 6 (in some places 5 ½) due to the extraordinary starting pitching matchup Halladay/Lincecum – but it was the diminutive strike zone of NLCS crew chief/plate umpire Derryl Cousins that really made the difference in the OVER getting the money at 4-3. Burrell’s RBI double in the 6th was the most obvious fallout – Halladay had him struck out on the prior pitch if he was pitching to the average MLB umpire’s K zone – Halladay/Lincecum also gave up 4 jacks on pitches just a little closer to the hitters’ happy zone than these two guys normally throw – plus Cousins also made it very tough on Wilson to get the game closed. Always a good idea to know who is calling balls and strikes before you make a play.

[j_dunn2]

what are your thoughts tonight BB ? PHI RL looks good at +145 (local) wondering what your thoughts are on the game. Sanchez runs plenty of 3-ball counts and if the Phillies hitters are patient and score early on, i dont know if hell make it past the 6th. He is definitely a strikeout pitcher though, and the Philadelphia lineup is very prone to Ks.

[BeatingBaseball]

what are your thoughts tonight BB ? PHI RL looks good at +145 (local) wondering what your thoughts are on the game. Sanchez runs plenty of 3-ball counts and if the Phillies hitters are patient and score early on, i dont know if hell make it past the 6th. He is definitely a strikeout pitcher though, and the Philadelphia lineup is very prone to Ks.

If I were going to bet the Phils - I would surely take at least some of it on the RL (if not all). I see no value whatsoever in the Phils on the ML here.

Personally - as you'll see in the next post - I think the real value is in taking SF once again at +1.46 - +1.50 -taking two shots at the game FF and ML.

I agree that Sanchez is a bit of wild card - much more so than Oswalt - but he's been fantastic of late. When he has command he can be almost unhittable - plus even when he allows baserunners his stuff often gets him out of it. I also like the Giants' bullpen at this price if that's what it comes down to.

Good Luck and enjoy another great game - not a lot of baseball left.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF – FF, ML, RL ½

Another extremely live dog at a fantastic price with Sanchez and the Giants taking +1.50.

Those laying -1.60 have to win at .615 to break even - our break even is .400.

Team Dynamics
Giants already have the 1-1 opening split that they hit the road to get.
All the pressure is on the Phils here - tonight a free shot for SF – they cashed their last one (ATL GM 4).
Have to love the Giants’ team dy after beating Roy Halladay.

Sanchez
Always worries you some with his high BB rate (4.47/9) and fly ball rate (over 43%) – esp vs a team that can run like the Phils and in a HR friendly park like this one – but he’s a super high quality LHer when he’s on. He’s been just great in Sept and Oct. – keeping his FB away and getting guys with his nasty breaking stuff.

You can always find some contrary stats – but I believe the Phils lineup is a little vulnerable to quality LH pitching. - vs RH starters the Phils were a .605 club (69-45) in the regular season – vs LH starters they were went .583 (28-20). Also - despite dominating the Reds in the NLDS - the Phils scored 0 runs w/ 7 Ks vs all Reds LHers in 6 innings over the 3 games. (Maybe Dusty should have started Travis Wood). Physics is physics – and elemental baseball physics says it’s harder to see and hit a ball moving away from you than in on you. Sanchez’ breaking stuff really moves big time – and it will be moving away from a lot of key hitters tonight (read Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez). Stuff moving away is also a lot more forgiving re location. If you miss with a ball moving in - it's either moving right toward the barrel of the bat - or it's moving in so far that you can end up with a HBP.

Oswalt
No mystery here – 5 pitch pitcher - he works ahead in counts - pounds his two tailing FBs (2 seamer and sinker) to the RHers – mixes it up more vs LHers w/ CV, SL – and throwing more CHs as he gets older - getting more ground balls.

He did leave a few up and over to the Reds – Brandon Phillips jacked one - Votto just missed another one and fouled it off.

Lineups
Everyone knocks Giants offense – but…
Giants – not the Phils – hit the most HRs in the NL in Sept.
Giants – not the Phils – have hit the most HRs in the NL in Oct.
Giants hitting only .220 in playoffs so far – but Phils hitting .216
2010 Playoffs – w/ 2 out RISP – SF .278, PHIL .167


It seems today that the Phillies fans on SBR are not quite so cocky.

By tomorrow they might be even less so.

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday was the first time a post season game on this thread lost all 3 plays.

Hats off to Oswalt – he was too much for the Giants’ lineup last night - and better handled a pretty inconsistent K zone.

Cody Ross certainly did his part to give us a shot at the First Five play – but Sanchez was not at his best and could not overcome the liability of Mike Fontenot at 3rd – the curse of the Ex-Cubs strikes again.

We are now 5-2 vs the money line on 7 post season selections – all underdogs.

[BeatingBaseball]

No dog play tonight – laying the price for Dr. Lee:

TEX – FF, ML, RL ½

If the King of Cool on the mound is not reason enough in and of itself –

Gm 2 was monumental in terms of team psychology. The stone cold killer Yankees of old would have ended it in that one. This Yankee club did not. Gm 2 had all the signs of a coming of age game for the Rangers. They now know they can beat the Yankees - and so does NY.

The guys in this TEX lineup have very strong career numbers vs LHers in general and Pettitte in particular.

NY has been somewhat vulnerable to LH starters all year. They were 3-9 vs LHers in September – only 4 games over (.534) vs the average LHer on the season overall. Granderson, for example, is certainly hitting leftys a lot better since his swing adjustments in August – but this is Cliff Lee.

Love the Rangers’ aggressive base running (read Elvis Andrus). With Pettitte out there the Rangers will of course have to be careful around 1st base since Angel Hernandez will never call the illegal balk move (he and Joe West save that for Mark Buehrle) – but that won’t stop TEX from stealing 3rd on Posada - or running on the outfield arms.

Only hope Jim Reynolds has a better night behind the plate than the schmuck in the Giants-Phils game last night.

[BeatingBaseball]

Dr. Lee and the Rangers sweep all 3 plays - FirstFive, ML and a nice +1.50 on RL.

Value Play of The Day is now 6-2 vs the ML - Cliff Lee was the first chalk wager - all others were dogs.

You know the visiting pitcher is pretty good when the home crowd's loudest roar comes on a 2-out walk bottom 4.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF Giants and Matt Cain +money at home today present another tremendous post season value -

SF – FF, ML, RevRL ½

Crunch time for SF – 1st of 3 at home – need at least 2 Ws. Even off a bad Gm 2 at Philly I think this club is up to the challenge.

Giants have the right guy on the mound for a swing game – Cain as big a big game pitcher as you’ll find in NL - as good as any in the game in the 2nd half.

Cain a 4 pitch pitcher - FB, CH, CV, SL - his FB a 4 seamer that has great life to it - it explodes and tails - he gets a lot of pop ups on it - much like Lincecum in that regard - but Cain has greater command of everything consistently. He’ll be ahead in the count more than Tim L. Cain's CH also tails, just like his FB.

Cain's out pitches to LHers are FB, CH - both moving away from them. He doesn't have much down movement on the SL – short, sideways like a cutter - not nasty enough to jam them - so he's very careful with it to LHers. He doesn't even throw his CV or SL to LHers for strikes - just shows them out of the zone early in the count once in a while to give them something to think about. Gets most LHers with the FB early and the CH w/ 2 strikes and in situations.

For RHers he's especially tough - 3 out pitches to go to - he gets them on the FB early in the count - and with the CV and SL late. He saves the breaking balls for late in the count.

Of some concern is the long layoff – Cain has not pitched in 10 days – longest of his career. But Hamels also on a long one – last pitched Oct. 10 when he shut out the Reds.

Must admit Hamels has been pitching great – he’s added a cutter – plus the presence and example of Halladay and Oswalt seem to have toughened him up – he used to be a soft/pretty boy/finesse pitcher – but he’s been more mature and stronger – throwing a little harder. That said - I think the Giants will hit him today. Hopefully Rowand goes in place of Torres in CF – 4 Ks in the leadoff spot vs Oswalt should sit him down. Hopefully Sandoval is at 3rd (Fontenot sits). Would be nice if Uribe could go at SS – but more likely Renteria – Edgar still not 100% from biceps tear but I like his stroke at the plate vs a guy like Hamels. But the guy who is really smokin’ and gets great looks at Hamels is of course Cody Ross – doubt Hamels will want any part of his bat – look for Ross to get a couple of free passes today.

Ted Barrett behind the plate should give both pitchers a fair game – respected ump – consistent and not too big or small on the K zone.

Rollins is key to the Phils lineup – hope Gm 2 didn’t get him going.

I think a lot of people who have not seen Matt Cain are about to be impressed.

[BeatingBaseball]

We once again sweep all 3 plays - First Five, Money Line and a BIG +$ Reverse Run Line.

Cain was dealin' - shuts out the Phils on 2 hits over 7 innings - out pitches the favored Hamels.

Bottom 4 - Edgar's opposite field stroke to right - Hamels loses Burrell on a BB - can't pitch around Cody Ross - crack - we had all we would need for Cain.

We passed on the late game beause we have the TEX +1.55 series play sitting here in good shape - and because A.J. Burnett, Tommy Hunter and Angel Hernandez behind the plate are all hard to trust with money.

We have now presented 9 Value Plays of The Day - 8 of them dogs - they've gone 7-2 against the Money Line - Not Bad

[BeatingBaseball]

TEX/NYY Gm 5 – First Five UNDER 4

This is our first total play of the post season.

Many are expecting this to be a somewhat high scoring game basis the trend. The OVER is 3-0-1 in this series.
Totals in games between these two clubs have gone OVER in 6 of L8 overall and OVER in 6 of L9 in NY.
We are fading the trend – expecting some small ball - believe both teams will be playing this one tight early.

Why small ball, low scoring and tight?
Really big games featuring quality starters tend to be played tight early.
This is the first post season elimination game the Yankees have faced since 2007.
This is the first potential World Series qualifying game in Rangers’ history.
No question CC has been shaky in both playoff starts – but today he's on his normal 4 days.
Sabathia in 2010 day games held opposing hitters to a .191 ave.
Josh Hamilton in 2010 hit .384 in night games/.286 in day games (98 pts less).
The Yankees lineup simply struggles with quality LH starters – Wilson is that.
Wilson has allowed 3 runs in 13.1 post season inn – esp tough on LHers.
Also A-Rod - a RHer - is 1 for 16 vs Wilson - was 0 for 3 vs Wilson in Gm. 1
Wally Bell behind the plate is an esp pitcher friendly umpire (strike zone).

The primary downside concern - beside either pitcher coming out wild - is the negative effect of Texeira's absence defensively. Yanks can not replace his great defense at 1st base. (The defensive concern on the other side is always Michael Young at 3rd.)

[BeatingBaseball]

No dice on the First Five UNDER.

CC and Wally Bell did their part - but CJ Wilson nowhere near as good as in Gm 1 - leadoff BBs are killers.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF - FF, ML, RL 1/2

A good spot for young Bumgarner – Up 2 games to 1 - a somewhat lower pressure, free shot game for SF.
Bumgarner won ALDS clincher in ATL in similar situation w/ Tim L to follow if needed.

A must game for the Phils – they stay with Blanton - not as good a fit for their situation.
Girardi stayed with A.J. last night down 2-1 in games – did not get away with it - Charlie hoping he does tonight.

Giants lineup at home and confident – Phillies lineup pressing with 0 runs on only 3 hits yesterday.
Phils in power failure - have 3 jacks for the entire post season – Cody Ross alone has 3 in this series.

[BeatingBaseball]

Even though we cashed the ML on the SF side - can't say we had a good day - we dropped the First Five on Polanco's 2-out, 2-strike, 2 run double top 5 - just 1 strike away from a payout and recovery of our busted TEX/NYY total earlier in the day. Also failed to pick up the bonus SF/RL money.

Still, however, a great post season so far with our sides going 8-2 vs ML overall.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF - FF, ML, RL 1/2

No one has ever made a living fading Roy Halladay - but no choice at this price but to go with the immediate team dynamic of the home club.

Either one of these guys is of course capable on any given night of shutting down any lineup in the history of baseball - but the Giants have been our most profitable horse the entire 2nd half.

Part of why a handicapper plugs away all season - through the dog days of August and through the stretch drives - is to identify the team or teams that are something special in terms of pitching, leadership and character. It became clear to me a few months ago that Bochy's 2010 Giants were a special bunch. Esp with Cain and Tim L on the hill - but also behind Sanchez and Bumgarner - these Giants were largely responsible for the recovery of much of the fortune I threw away fading the Baltimore Orioles in the 2nd half. So there's no turning back now.

Hope we have a great game.

[aleem15]

Think the Giants get it done tonight at home...Definitely do not want to go back to Philly.

[BeatingBaseball]

Think the Giants get it done tonight at home...Definitely do not want to go back to Philly.

From your post to the baseball gods' ears, my friend.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF goes down across the board in one of the most frustrating games of the season.

No crying in baseball - but when you get a 2-0 lead on Roy Halladay the hardest part is done - esp when the Phils have been struggling to score – you have max momentum - you’re at home - and you have Tim L on the mound. Then you give it all away with a series of mistakes in that horrendous Top 3 - and put Halladay in the driver’s seat. Tough loss to say the least.