[BeatingBaseball]

TEX - FF, ML, RevRL 1/2

Rangers figured they would need 2 wins from one of their pitchers to win this ALCS - but who would have guessed that pitcher could be Colbly Lewis – not Cliff Lee.

Both pitchers are wild cards - but a lot less pressure on Lewis.

Although Rangers only 15-19 in Lewis' starts overall in 2010 - he's been on a roll in his last 7 starts giving up no more than 2 runs in any of them. He'll again be on a short leash - he usually doesn't pitch deep in games -hasn’t seen the 7th in more than a month – yet he got it done in a huge Gm 2.

The Yanks looked more like themselves in the last one - but have still been outscored 32-18 in this series - and out hit .316 to .217.

[BeatingBaseball]

TEX sweeps all plays – First Five, ML and a very lucrative +1.65 RevRL.

The 3 play sweep more than makes up for Thursday’s setback on the Giants.

Value Play of The Day post season selections on this thread are now 9-3 overall on sides vs the ML.

Our Favs have gone 2-0. Our dogs have gone 7-3. Our Totals 0-1.


We also get the money on our TEX series play from Oct. 15 (post #11).


Those of you following this for free have either missed the money by not tailing - or have demonstrated a complete absence of social grace in not expressing some small level of appreciation - one or the other.

You have to be impressed with the performance of the Rangers in this ALCS - especially after the devastating loss of Game 1. The Rangers' lineup is going to be a challenge for either NL pitching staff to handle.

[BeatingBaseball]

Decided not to give this one away.

Good Luck to All.

[figue]

why dont today ??

[BeatingBaseball]

SF to win 2010 World Series – ML at +1.23

Since events like the World Series and Super Bowl draw the interest of many more casual bettors who don’t bet sports day to day - it’s probably a good idea to clearly define what the above Value Play selection means.

The selection of the SF Giants as the Value Play to win the 2010 World Series does not represent an opinion that SF is going to win the World Series.

The selection of the SF Giants as the Value Play to win the 2010 World Series represents an opinion that SF has a better chance of doing so than the 45.045% chance that +1.23 implies.

It means that taking the Giants +1.23 in this Series has +EV (Positive Expected Value) - that if this Series were played 100 times – it is my opinion that the Giants would win 46 times or more – making it a profitable play long term. Unfortunately, of course, they’re only going to play it once.

Positive EV is what professional gamblers use to make their living. It’s not as much about individual outcomes (beyond our control) as about squeezing maximum value out of every opportunity.

That said - let’s look at some handicapping fundamentals – what makes a team a value (+EV) against the line? A team is a value when, on balance, the elements in its favor are underappreciated and underpriced by the market and/or the factors in favor of the opposition are fully priced or overpriced by the market.

Hundreds of such factors were considered in making this selection, not the least of which were:

As always in a 7 game series – the depth of the pitching staff is critical – the Giants have it in Spades.
The 2010 SF pitching staff had the best ERA in the game at 3.36. 2nd Half staff WHIP 1.18.
SF bullpen is truly extraordinary - gave up 0 runs in Sept. – far superior to TEX pen.
The SF staff just successfully shut down the vaunted Phils lineup – they handle potent lineups very well.
SF won NLCS vs heavily favored Phils w/o the home field advantage they enjoy in this Series.
It’s easier for the NL club to plug in a DH in the AL park than it is for the AL club to hide a guy on defense.
The sight of Vlad Guerrero in RF with a glove should scare any Rangers fan to death.
With as many as 4 games at AT&T the ball will surely find Guerrero (remembering Brooks Conrad).
Brian Wilson was the major league saves leader – Wilson is the better closer here.
Bochy is one of the sharpest matchup managers in the game – Bochy the better mgr. here.
SF made 73 errors during the 2010 regular season – TEX made 105.
Although Cliff Lee is properly favored over anyone anywhere – Lincecum can also shut down any lineup.
The #s 2,3,4 matchups all go to SF – Cain, Sanchez, Baumgarner > Wilson, Lewis, Hunter.
The Rangers lineup is powerful – but there are some underappreciated factors in the lineup comparison.
TEX hit 162 HRs regular season – SF surprisingly hit the exact same number – 162 - 1 per game.
TEX hit 72 Hrs in the 2nd Half – SF hit 8 more – 80 - surprised?
The HRs comparison is even greater since a lot of fly balls knocked down at AT&T that would be HRs in Rangers Park.
And it’s not just HR equivalence – 2nd Half slugging percentages for both clubs were also identical at .411
TEX has been great on road post season – but were still a losing club on the road in 2010 regular season at 39-42.
SF was a winning 2010 regular season road club at 43-38.
Cliff Lee is a huge weapon – but not a secret one at this point - he’s fully priced in this time.
When you beat the NY Yankees – some of the Yankee public premium attaches to you.

Finally, the 162 game regular season schedule always reveals a lot –

When you put the jeweler’s loop to the 2010 NL regular season – you see that lineups don’t beat SF. You beat SF by pitching with them inning after inning, game after game.

The club that SF had the most trouble with during the regular season was the team with the next best staff ERA in the NL – San Diego. It was not a SD formidable lineup - but great pitching - that won them 12 of 18 against the Giants. Yet in the end SD was still overtaken by the Giants.

Besides SD, the only other club to have a winning record vs SF was ATL (4-3 vs SF). ATL also pitches – ATL had the next best staff ERA in the NL after SF and SD. And the 4th best staff ERA in the NL – STL - also played SF tough at 3-3.

SF closer Brian Wilson made an insightful comment when he said that the winner of their games is not the team that scores the most - but the team that gives up the least. He’s right.

Looking at the 2010 AL regular season – OAKL had the best staff ERA in the AL but no lineup whatsoever – OAKL played TEX very tough at 9-10.

TB, with the 2nd best staff ERA in the AL, did lose the ALDS to TEX - but TB beat them 4 games to 2 in the regular season series.

MINN, one of 5 AL teams with a staff ERA under 4.00, won 7 of 10 vs TEX.

BALT, a team that pitched the lights out after the break, was 6-4 vs TEX.

The conclusion here is that the TEX lineup, like any lineup, can be vulnerable to teams that pitch.

SF can pitch.


Should be a great series. If C. Lee doesn't win at least 2 - I think the Giants win - and they may win anyway.

[pimike]

Outstanding Information! !!!

[richporter]

much appreciated dude.. been lurking this whole time you are the man for this info. who do you like tonight?

[pimike]

much appreciated dude.. been lurking this whole time you are the man for this info. who do you like tonight?

I will hit u up tomorrow!

[BeatingBaseball]

Thank you, gentlemen.

May we finish a profitable baseball season in style.

[isg2010]

Do you expect a play on tonight's game?

[pimike]

Giants! ##$$!!!

[BeatingBaseball]

Major League pitching coaches have 3 words of advice they use all the time: "trust your defense."

Pitching coaches don't want their guys trying to do "too much." They know from long experience that it is the surest path to failure on a baseball field. Trying to do "too much" is a trap that hitters fall into all the time - but it happens to pitchers too - and it is just as lethal.

When talented young arms come to the big leagues they generally have a history of great success at lower levels and one of the things they have to learn to appreciate is that in the Bigs they don't have to do it all themselves - that they now have the greatest defensive players in the world behind them. It normally doesn't take long for the young pitchers to realize what their coach is talking about. As they gain a little experience in the Bigs they see the incredible plays made behind them - they come to appreciate them - and they soon come to expect them.

Top tier veteran pichers like Cliff Lee understand this element of Major League ball very well. They trust their defense. And know how to use it to their advantage. They know they don't have to strike out every hitter. They don't try to do "too much." But I believe Lee's outing last night was an exception. I think he did exactly that.

I've seen a lot of Cliff Lee. I know how he works. And I don't believe he trusted at least one element of his defense at all last night. He tried to do "too much" - and it took away half his game.

Lee is a guy who uses both sides of the plate - that's one of the things that make him great. A pitcher that only uses one side of the plate (and their are many) - no matter how good his stuff is - will eventually be hit and hit hard by big league hitters.

The Giants have a RH lineup with key guys who either have natural "other way" strokes (like Edga Reneria) or who are very adept at taking a middle-away pitch from a LH pitcher to RF (like Buster Posey). With Guerrero in RF last night the idea of driving some balls in that direction was a pretty good one (for SF). Lee understood this as well - and the way to counter that idea is to pitch the RHers inside. Watching the game, Lee very clearly did so. He did so all night - and it was his downfall. He even hit one of those RHers (Torres) with an inside pitch - something Lee almost never does.

In pitching all the RHers middle-in, Lee gave up the use of the outside part of the plate - for Lee the outside corner is like free money - it's a huge part of his game - even more so with an umpire like Hirschbeck behind the plate. But last night there was one downside to throwing out there - if the ball is hit - it's going toward Guerrero. I think for Lee that risk changed his game. He fell into the trap. He didn't trust his defense - so he tried to do too much. As we saw, he got hit and hit hard as the Rhers zoned in on pitch after pitch that was middle-in.

What makes baseball a great game is all the subtle connections and synergies of its dynamics - how everything is connected to something else and how one seemingly minor change will affect other things on the field and in the mind. It is a game where any single minor change or adjustment has the potential to cascade into a very major influence on a play - a game - and sometimes the outcome of a World Series. I believe we saw a great example of that last night.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

hey man thanks for all you do....

[BeatingBaseball]

hey man thanks for all you do....

Thank you for that - I appreciate it. Best of Luck to you.

[bornselling]

TB - FF, ML, AltRL 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

TB - FF, ML, AltRL 1/2

If you are talking about that play from back on Oct. 9th - we won that one with Garza.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF – FF, ML, RL ½

It’s great to have an ace that is just about invincible - but the downside is that when that ace gets beat in a big series it can have a dramatic effect on team psychology and dynamics - on both sides.

The Rangers are saying they turn the page on big losses very well - and they’ve proved it’s true.
They got away with blowing gm 1 of the ALCS - made a fantastic comeback in gm 2 and in the series.

But remember it was not Lee who pitched gm 1 there - they still had Lee in the wings.
There’s a big difference here – the ace was beaten – the ace is not in the hole this time.
Phil Hughes let them off the hook after gm 1 vs Yanks - I don’t think Matt Cain will.

Cain was our most profitable pitcher of the entire 2nd Half - I had a lot to say about him in the post of Oct. 19th here.
In his 2 post season starts Cain has gone 13 2/3 inn and allowed one run.
In his last start Cain gave up 0 runs to Philly in the critical gm 3 of the NLCS – 7 innings/2 hits
I thought he was the right guy to have out there in a swing game like that one.
Also think he’s a great guy to have out there for a potential kill shot game like this one.


There’s a lot of pressure on CJ Wilson here - the biggest game for the Rangers since that ALCS gm 2.
And this one's on the road. I'm not sure Wilson is the guy for it.
Sam Holbrook will have the plate - definitely a more hitter friendly ump than Hirschbeck or Bill Miller.
The only smaller Kzone than Holbrook's on this W.S crew is Jeff Kellogg's.
Walks could very well be a factor tonight. CJ Wilson walks guys. Matt Cain does not.

Also – a smokin’ bat to keep an eye on - Freddy Sanchez is 13 for 25 in last 6 games.

After 1 game our Series analysis is looking pretty good –
The HR Thing – TEX had 0 HRs last night – SF hit the only one.
The Errors Thing – TEX made 4 of them
The Guerrero Thing – he made 2 of them
The Shut Down Superman Thing – ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton was 0 for 4 last night.

If the Giants get this one it could well be a short series.

[pimike]

Good luck tonight. Cain is unpredictable.

[soxwin]

cain has been nails in all but one start since september started. Solid at home. W/out Vladdy in the line up he won't pitch to Hamilton. and go after the righties.

good luck tonight

[tullamore21]

what do you think, is this gonna be an Over game too?

[BeatingBaseball]

cain has been nails in all but one start since september started. Solid at home. W/out Vladdy in the line up he won't pitch to Hamilton. and go after the righties.

good luck tonight

Exactly right in my opinion - and Cain can really be tough on RH hitters with his FB setting set up his breaking stuff.

[BeatingBaseball]

what do you think, is this gonna be an Over game too?

Personally, I don't bet a lot of totals - but 7 seems about right to me - kind of a crap shoot - don't see any value in laying a price on it one way or the other.

[figue]

ANOTHER GOOD CALL

[BeatingBaseball]

Thanks, figue.

Hope you got a piece of that score.

[BeatingBaseball]

We cash all 3 plays on Gm 2 – First Five, ML and a beautifully curvaceous +1.80 Run Line.

The money was in good hands with Matt Cain - after 3 post season starts - over 21 innings - the next earned run he gives up will be the first.

It was the 3rd shutout of the post season for the SF pitching staff – the 2nd for Cain – and the first time TEX was shut out in the 2010 playoffs.

After 2 gms - SF is hitting .314 – TEX, who was supposed to have “too much hitting” for SF, is at .227.

The day that the wagering public ever figures out that Big League baseball, esp in September and October, is all about pitching, pitching and more pitching – it’s going to become a lot harder to make money betting it. But we may be safe for a while - apparently there are even some players yet to figure it out - Nelson Cruz’ post game comment was, “We’re not playing the same, I don’t know what it is. I wish I could tell you. The way we’re playing, it’s different. It’s not us.” Cain had just ended Cruz’ 12 game playoff hitting streak – along with the 12 game streak of Elvis Andrus. Keep betting those big lineups, baseball fans.

Value Play of The Day post season selections on this thread are now 10-3 overall on sides vs the ML.

Our Favs have gone 3-0. Our dogs have gone 7-3. Our Totals 0-1.

And if history is any indication - our series play is also in good shape. The last 7 teams that took a 2-0 lead in the W.S. ended up World Champs – also 13/L14 and 40/L51. Our +1.23 would now cost us -3.00.

[zephyr]

Great stuff here BB.

[figue]

BB do you like tomorrow sf +130 ??

[BeatingBaseball]

Great stuff here BB.

Thanks, zephyr - welcome aboard - will do our best to keep it going/finish strong.

Still looking at Gm 3, figue - will have a selection on it tomorrow.

Good Luck to All

[pats3peat]

very nice

[BeatingBaseball]

Appreciate the points you sent over on post #52 - just noticed it this a.m.

You are a gentleman and a scholar - Best of Luck

[BeatingBaseball]

SF – FF, ML, RevRL ½

Also – Gm 3 UNDER 8.5

With our Series play in great shape there is some inclination on the gambling side of the equation to hedge it with a play on TEX – but on the baseball side of things the price on Colbly Lewis today is simply too high (or as NY gubernatorial candidate Jimmy McMillan would say, “The price is TOO DAMN high.”)

The Price
At -1.58 the implied win expectation and break even percentage on Lewis is over 61%.
Taking +1.48 on Sanchez the win expectation and break even is only .404.
Taking equivalent money 5 inn and game - we have 2 shots at profitablity - Sanchez/Lewis or the SF pen.

Team Situational Records Regular Season
No question TEX was an excellent home club during the regular season at 51-30.
51-30 is almost .630 – but that was against the average opponent.
SF was a very good road club, however - at 43-38 – that’s over .530 – today we only need .404.
SF just beat the two LH starters – the #1 & #2 guys – and now face a RHer - the #3.
SF was better vs RH starters than LH starters this year – 68-50 (.576) vs RH, 24-20 (.545) vs LH.
SF was also a strong dog play this yr at 32-34 (almost .485) and have been great dogs post season.

Team Dynamics and Momentum
Could not be more Giants here.
SF off 3 huge Ws - beat Phils in Philly for NLCS then outscored TEX 20-7 in next two.
TEX under all the pressure – must win or face 4 elimination games – went to SF to get 1 game and failed – Ace was beaten - #2 was beaten – hitting has been shut down – 0 Hrs in SF after bombs in every post season game vs TB and Yanks – bullpen imploded – manager taking heat – and your fans are now expecting to lose the Series before they even get to the ballpark for the first home game - wow! – one of the worst trips all time – even the Hindenberg only had one thing go wrong (that unfortunate problem with the fire right at the end).

The Starters
Sanchez is always a nervous choice. The question is always “will he be on?” He has a high walk rate (96 walks on the year – no pitcher in the game had more) – and he’s a fly ball pitcher – neither of those elements plays well at HR friendly Rangers Park. That said, he also has fantastic LH stuff - in some games can be unhittable (literally – he threw a no-no last yr) – he’s a high K rate pitcher – one of the best super nasty SL’s in the game – gets him out of a lot of situations (.149 with 2 men on or bases loaded). He’s very confident and cocky when he’s dealin’ - but can also be emotional (he’s from Puerto Rico – I’m just sayin’) - and he can have problems when things go wrong (remembering Fontenot’s bad play at 3rd vs Philly and Sanchez’ inability to pitch thru it).

Sanchez has had 3 post season outings – all on the road (a plus here) – 2 great ones but off a terrible last one vs Philly where he only got 6 outs. His best outing was his first vs ATL when he pitched into the 8th w/ 11Ks (the Brooks Conrad game).

When Sanchez is on he gets a lot of swings on the 4 seamer – but he needs to be very careful with it tonight. The TEX lineup hits LHers well – esp FBs - CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte will attest to that - Hamilton hit bombs off both in the ALCS. Sanchez needs to stay out of hitter’s counts – esp to Hamilton and vs the RHers. Hopefully he’ll “Slop” Hamilton – all breakers –– he’ll get swinging Ks on breakers – might walk him but that’s OK – no FBs for strikes - and can’t leave anything up – Hamilton loves the ball up. He also needs to keep the FB (and everything) away from Michael Young – no mistakes.

One of the best things about Sanchez is if he doesn’t have it you know it early – and Bochy will go to his pen fast – SF actually won Sanchez’ bad 2 inning outing vs Phils 3-2 because Bochy had the quick hook and the SF pen is tremendous. The bullpen is the most glaring mismatch between the two clubs in this series – it’s the equivalent of a pit bull vs a poodle. The TEX bullpen has put up an 18.56 ERA in the Series as Derek Holland did his best Rick Ankiel impression.

Colby Lewis is the anti-Sanchez. His curve and change are less than big league average - he has only two plus pitches - FB, SL – but he’s been working ahead in counts and having great success – esp vs RHers with his cutter and with his SL down and away – that’s his out pitch to RHers. SF should be looking to lay off the SL - hit the FB - and any mistakes.

Along with Wilson, Lewis seems to have benefited from the the Cliff Lee effect - getting better/stronger as the game progresses. He’s been going deeper into each game and has had more Ks in each post season start. He won the 2 huge games vs the Yanks (I would have given him the ALCS MVP over Hamilton) – but I also think he’s been pitching over his skis. I think he is vulnerable to LHers. He’s also - like Sanachez - a fly ball pitcher. We might see a long ball or two – maybe Aubrey Huff or Sandoval – Huff is chasing balls up but lethal on anything down/in and The Kung Fu Panda is a FB killer. Torres should also get good looks and swings at Lewis.

The Umpire
Bill Miller is one of the most pitcher friendly umps in the game – right up there with John Hirschbeck. Miller should help both pitchers – but I think Sanchez will benefit more from the hitters swinging the bat.

The Managers
Not to disparage Ron Washington but - like many other managers would be – he’s overmatched here. Bochy may be the best “in game” manager in the business. He’s like Bobby Fischer at Reykjavik – 4 steps down the board - always prepared for any eventuality and ahead of the other guy (See Nate Schierholtz Gm 2 catch in the RF gap just 3 hitters into his defensive deployment in a 1 run game in the 7th).

The Total
Don’t play a lot of totals – but when I do it is usually predicated to a great degree on the plate umpire – this one is no exception. I’m UNDER 8.5 here due to Miller – I think he’ll help Sanchez – plus 21 of Lewis’ 32 starts have gone UNDER the total.

If you have read all this - you are now ready to have Tim McCarver talk to you as if you have never seen a baseball game before.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

always poke in and see what you're on.... love your contributions, on the other side tonight. i'll lay the juice on texas to avoid going down 3-0

[BeatingBaseball]

always poke in and see what you're on.... love your contributions, on the other side tonight. i'll lay the juice on texas to avoid going down 3-0

Congrats, ShowMe. A huge win for the Rangers. Hope you did well on your call.

Glad to cash the UNDER - Sanchez definitely not at his best - but the side still came down to one swing of the bat. One strike away from getting out of that Bottom 2 - but after barely getting a piece of two of those hard SLers Moreland put a great swing on the third one that caught a little too much of the plate.

Lewis hung a few early - but Huff, Burrell and Sanchez missed 'em. Hamilton didn't miss his, however.

Sure makes Game 4 a lot more interesting.

[BeatingBaseball]

Rookie Mitch Moreland’s 2-out, 2-strike 3-run jack Bottom 2 from the #9 spot took all of our Side money.

We did cash the Total with the 4-2 final easily UNDER the 8.5 as Bill Miller's generous K-zone cooled the scoring.

Value Play of The Day post season selections are now 10-4 overall on Sides vs the ML.

Our Favs have gone 3-0. Our Dogs have gone 7-4. Our Totals now 1-1.

Colby Lewis continues to have one hell of a post season – again handling the RH hitters inning after inning using basically only 2 effective pitches. He thru some hangers but other than Cody Ross' HR the RHers missed them - the only other extra base hits came from SF left side hitters Huff and Torres - just not enough of them.

[BeatingBaseball]

SF – FF, ML, RL ½

Burrell sits – a plus for SF over last night – improves Giants both offensively and defensively.

Madison Bumgarner is simply better than Tommy Hunter:

K’s per 9 – Bumgarner gets it 6.97 to 4.78
BB per 9 - Bumgarner gets it 2.11 to 2.32
HR per 9 - Bumgarner gets it 0.89 to 1.48
Inn per Start - Bumgarner gets it 6.17 to 5.82

Hunter has not seen the 5th in either of his 2 playoff starts.
TB, NYY hit Hunter at .333 and Cano jacked him.
ATL, PHIL hit Bumgarner at .263 in 12 innings overall.

Question - Who pitches the 6th, 7th, 8th for Rangers? – and is he (are they) worth -1.49?

Our break even percentage is less than 42% on this ML (at +1.39).