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2006 Preview - Cleveland Indians
2005 Record: 93-69, 2nd in AL Central
There’s reason for optimism in Cleveland. The Dolan’s, GM Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge have done a solid job getting the Indians back into postseason contention ahead of schedule. The team is coming off a solid '05 effort that saw them challenge Chicago for the ALC and fall just shy of the wildcard. With a solid core of established major leaguers 28 or younger, they look like a force to reckon with for this season and beyond. So why would I pick them to slide back a notch or three in the win column this time, you ask?
The reason is they overachieved in 2005, improving by 13 dubya’s from 2004 when they surged up 12 from 2003. You can expect that movement from a team like the Mets who added several top o’ the line free agents the past two winters or a team with 2-3 players back from injury. Neither describes the Indians who are building from within or benefiting now from the youth they smartly traded for.
If a few young pitchers continue to reach new heights, the Indians could certainly ‘overachieve’ again. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee give them a couple of nice lefties for the rotation. Sabathia has been consistent statistically and could be primed for the same breakout Lee enjoyed in ’05. Lee’s 18 wins last year were due in part to him lopping more than 1.5 off his ERA. But Lee also received the most run support of any Indians pitcher. With the same support in 2004 when he won 14 with a 5.43 ERA, Lee could’ve totaled 18 victories.
Jake Westbrook has been inconsistent and never lived up to his potential. Seeing him round out could be crucial to Cleveland hanging with the White Sox. The Indians signed vets Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson during the winter to orundout the order. Byrd has not put together consecutive healthy seasons, so that’s a concern at his age. Johnson is no spring chicken either, but at least he came more cheaply than had Cleveland kept Scott Elarton, and Johnson should pitch as well if not better.
If any of those arms fail or fall to the DL this season, a good bet since it’s extremely rare for an MLB club to go a season relying on just five starters, the Indians have some youngsters to turn to. Jeremy Sowers, a lefty in the mode of Glavine or Moyer, might be the first called up. Rarely tickles 90 on the gun, but is incredibly consistent with a wide assortment of pitches. Fausto Carmona also has progressed through the system well and could get the call. Adam Miller is less likely for this year but could be a force in the rotation by 2007.
Fully recovered from his 2003 elbow surgery, Bob Wickman turned in a remarkable 2005 campaign as Cleveland’s closer. With a career high 45 saves, 2.47 ERA and an eye-popping .094 RISP average against him, it’s difficult to imagine him repeating those stats in 2006. If Guillermo Mota was 100% he’d be the 8th-inning arm without question. But he’ll have to prove he is back to form in spring. Rafael Betancourt and Fernando Cabrera are relatively unknown, but they could become the primary setup arms if Mota falters. Scott Sauerbeck, who should be fully recovered from his 2004 shoulder surgery, will get the call against tough lefty swingers. Middle relief is up in the air with veterans Danny Graves and Steve Karsay trying to resurrect their careers on the reservation. If just one of them can it will be a blessing. Jason Davis, out of options now and never reaching his hype, could be a critical piece in Cleveland’s 2006 puzzle either by pitching well or being dealt.
There is a lot to like about the offense. Victor Martinez is a stud behind the plate, rebounding from an awful start to finish 2005 with a .305 average and 20 HR. His HR and RBI totals were down from ’05, but he should poke 25 long flies and drive in close to 100 this campaign. His backup job is a battle between veteran Einar Diaz --- who the club once dealt for Travis Hafner --- and Boston castoff Kelly Shoppach.
Hafner is again the DH, resting occasionally opposite the top southpaws. He’s good for 30+ dongs and 100 RBI. He’s also good for nothing in the field.
Jhonny Peralta and Ronnie Belliard give Cleveland adequate defense and better-than-average pop from the SS-2B slots. Peralta really broke loose last season, his first full go in the bigs, and at 23 should have even better seasons to come. The infield corners are a concern with Aaron Boone at third and Ben Broussard at first. Slow starts from either or both would and should mean quick promotions for Andy Marte and Ryan Garko. Lou Merloni and Ramon Vazquez are the primary infield backups.
Leading the outfield is Grady Sizemore in center. The 23-yr-old has 30-30 potential and should be a fixture in Cleveland’s outfield for the next decade. Jason Michaels came over from Philly in an off season deal and should finally get his first chance to play everyday in the majors just in time to celebrate his 30th birthday this May. He doesn’t hit for power and he won’t beat many in a foot race. But he does get on base with regularity. Casey Blake is back in right where he shifted from third last season. Maybe the defensive move caused his offense to sputter and, if he plays another 140+ games, Blake should contribute more than the 58 RBI he did in 2005. Todd Hollandsworth is the top candidate for the #4 outfield role entering spring, but keep an eye out for Jason Dubois and Franklyn Gutierrez, plus promising Brad Snyder on the horizon.
Key Performer(s): Sabathia, Lee and Westbrook. If the Tribe expects to hang with the ChiSox, the rotation’s front end has to get the job done.
Camp Question(s): Sorting the bullpen out behind Wickman and giving young first and third basemen a long hard look.
My Play: Wahoo fans won’t like my projection of 90 wins after the Indians won 93 last year. But if I went by what fans wanted to see every MLB team would have 100-win projections. The o/u line at Pinnacle is currently 90½ and the few pitching concerns have me leaning under.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
