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looking for the best 1 pm play to lock in.... leaning toward kc/det, but something tells me the tigers bats wake up today.... also considering colo/st louis... that one hit for me last night, pujols makes me wet myself though when he comes up in the bottom half
Wouldn't it be a safe bet to bet that a run will score?Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
nice win stingy... and are you still doing the parlay thread?
1pm games i like stl/col. as far as the det/kc game i can't trust bonderman after last years debacle.
Guess not....congrats
yeah i am leaning toward stl/colo.... just not sure.... there are 4 games that start at 1 pm est we know there is at least 1 scoreless 1st in that slate, just gotta pinpoint it.... i tell you anytime that rockies starter from last night pitches this is a good bet.... he goes right at hitters and tries to get them out in 1 -2 pitches... worked out good....
chino, i might pick up the parlay thread again, but thing is in MLB top favs lose daily, it worked out great in hoops and football, but my feeling is it is real tough to win in MLB with ML parlays, but as the season goes on, i might pick that back up.... i am just pretty suped at how scoreless firsts are hitting so far
stingy,
what book are you getting that kinda juice??
I was looking at Colorado myself. I looked at Jimenez's stats from last year and he gave up a run in the 1st inning 8 times in 15 games. Over 50% chance he'll give up a run. I'm staying away from this one.
good look cashmoney, i will back off that one....
i am at the greek kfcd....
i guess i will go with
.5 * kc/det at -120
.5 * wash/philly at +100
cashmoney where are you getting those 1st inning stats?
nah scratch detroit....
renteria is too hot in the 1 hole so far
wow.... griffey might have just messed up my 2 unit morning
yup.... man that was a cheap off the end of the bat cue shot double by griffey.... oh well onto the next play
stingyrivers are you tracking any pitchers past 1st inning performance to cap this? if so where are you getting the stats? thanks.
that is what i would like to do, and will start working on as well as tracking....
pitchers 1st inning history
teams 1st inning history
1st 3 batters in lineup vs. starting pitching history
and weather
those 4 factors i think are huge for this
as well as homeplate umpire probably plays a big role too
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Just type in the pitcher's name, look up his career splits and you can see how many starts he's had against the team.
Stingyrivers I think you should factor in team defense as well. You can easily make a weighted formula once you find the stats.
definitely olgc... that definitely showed up with the phillies today....
so far 2-2 on the day and dead even in units....
will be on the 230 game
mil/cubs scoreless 1st at +105
Did you check Soriano's career numbers against Bush? I could be wrong but I think he really kills him and so does Aramis Ramirez.
Good luck on your plays.
looks like a good call on the rockies/cards chino
shoulda went with that one instead of nats/phils
whoops pujols just hit the wall with 2 outs.... i am rooting for the third out for ya
bases loaded just get out of it jimenez
wow... i might actually go with runs in the first inning with the cubs game even though it is against the trend of the thread...
Bush has pitched 103 first innings in his career and given up 81 runs, that's a lot...
can't really say it's 80% because he might have only given up a run in 50 percent of those innings, but when he gives up first inning runs he gives up like 4 or 5, you know what i mean
nice hit with that cards game chino, all that counts is the result.... nice win
breaking down the next game.... all appearances are that it seems like a risky no run first prop
Not worried about Dempster but Bush on the other hand. Then again my system doesn't seem like much of a system right now.
Bush 3 starts against the Cubs last year...runs in the 1st every game. He's either due or history can repeat itself. How are you guys leaning on this 1?
yesterday they went down 123, 123 with the exception of the first pitch of the game that was launched for a first pitch homer.... could be a dicey one, but i hate rooting for a first inning run, as it just has this natural feel for me that it is the lesser likely event to occur.... don't know, better play for this one to just play the cubs at +120 as it is hard to see them get sswept to open to the season to division rival
whoops.. cubs are at -138
i think i might just roll with the cubs to win, and then definitely will be on a scoreless first in the Houston/sd game at 330
my leaning is to bet on a run scored in the first in the cubs game.... hard to see both those pitchers getting out of the first without some baserunners on
the cubs have been cold in the first couple innings these two games tho.
yeah you know what.... screw it, caution in following, but i am gonna go with my gut, and the spirit of this thread and go with a scoreless inning in the cubs game at +105.... put this theory to the test i guess....
1* mil/cubs scoreless 1st
there you go stingy gl
i'm leaning towards taking it rather than not playing it
watching pregame... cold and windy in wrigley and they said wind is blowing stright into homeplate.... should keep balls in the park
ok let's do this.... 123 123 would be very very nice start to the afternoon going into tonight
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