I am strongly considering one bet for the course of the season, and would really like feedback on this question....
the common prop bet of run scored in the 1st inning v. no run 1st
i have been winning with this bet by betting no run 1st.... just hit again with the royals/tigers 1st inning today....
here is the thing about this bet, intuitively i would say that scoreless first innings happen more often than not, yet the juice on this bet is usually weighted on the side of betting runs will be scored in the first.... example today:
Tigers/Royals will there be runs scored in the first inning?
Yes -125
No -105
I have been winning with this wager by betting no run 1st in select games..... i am guessing that the juice is weighted towards the yes side because people generally like to bet on offense and scores to happen more so than betting no scores will happen in sports, but i am guessing on that, historically maybe runs in the first occur more often than scoreless firsts, but that just doesn't seem like it could be true....
so in all that rambling, i guess my question to the intelligent cappers here is, does this wager have a real profit potential??
consider that i strongly feel this bet is so strange that the lines are probably pretty soft on it with several overlays in the course of a season....
I really would love feedback on this, and thanks ahead of time....
I am a ML Parlay system type of guy, but am quickly learning that is not a good approach in MLB as -200 favs lose daily, thus i am considering making my system in baseball for the whole season first inning bets, by chosing select games where scoreless firsts are extremely likely by using a screening process that includes such factors as pitching matchups, teams with high percentage of scoreless firsts playing each other, weather and climate, as well as all other contributing factors to scoring early in a ballgame....
based on the feedback from the forum, and how this starts to pan out in the ballparks, this will become my daily thread for the season as opposed to a ML Parlay thread, and likely will be my system for the entire system....
hoping for lots of thoughtful feedback on this one guys, thanks in advance and i hope you all cash on today's tickets