i decided to test this out and see how it compares to the ABC martingle system jm uses.
you have a line with four numbers on it. for every bet you make, you take the first and last number of the line, and add them together for your bet amount.
if the bet wins, you cross off the first and last numbers on the line
if the bet doesn't win, you add the amount lost on the end of the line
the objective of course is to cross off all the numbers on the line so you will profit. and then you start a new line.
also in this system you always bet to risk and not to win.
jm has two unofficial plays tonight on the astros and orioles. both games will be going on at the same time so there will be two lines.
not many people are actually betting on these since they're unofficial. and the ones who are, are betting small. so i will start out with the number 5 on the first lines.
line 1: 5 5 5 5 bet 10 dollars on the orioles run line. i have them at -130.
line 2: 5 5 5 5 bet 10 dollars on the astros run line. i have them at -200.
now since -200 odds are so high, you wouldn't profit much. so personally, i will be deviating from the jm system a little.
i will split my 10 dollar bet on the astros in half. i'll bet 5 dollars on the runline to win $2.50. and i'll bet the other 5 dollars on the moneyline (+113) to win $5.65.
so if the astros win straight up, i'll profit more. but should they only lose by 1, at least it wont be a total loss.
the idea is to bet a certain percentage of your bet on the moneyline. and a higher percentage on the runline to where if the team lost by 1, you would walk away clean. but since 5 dollars is the minimum bet, we can't do that here.
i will post the updated lines tonight after the games.
Nice work here hope you ll update the stat's and see how it goes through the season
And thanks for explaining me the system in private chat i fully understand it now and like it alot more than the martiangle system
btw what i do is i ignore the plays that have odds -180 or above. I'm just not comfortable betting a huge amount of money to win a little :P No team in my oppinion is worth -150 or above.
well with odds -150 or above your would break your bet amount in two portions.
for example, tonight the astros runline was -200. and the moneyline was +113. let's say your bet amount was 20 dollars.
if you just bet 20 dollars on the runline, you would only make 10 dollars with -200. not that great.
but if you get an odds calculator you can do the math and bet a small percentage of that 20 dollars on the moneyline as well
so what you do here is bet $6.66 (of your 20 dollars) on the astro's moneyline (+113) to win $7.53.
then you would bet the remaining $13.34 of that 20 dollars on the astro's runline (-200) to win $6.67
now if the astros win the game, you win both bets there and profit $14.20. which is better than 10 dollars.
if the astros lost by 1 run though, you would lose the $6.66 on the moneyline, but win the runline bet and profit $6.67
well that would be a win in jm's system so your bank would stay the same with no harm done. and you move on to the next team.
this would also work with heavy moneyline favorites like the cubs series. you just do the same thing using the -1.5 runline. this way you don't have to risk a lot to win something on these jm plays
well only the orioles could f... up a wet dream. and that appears to be what they did this afternoon. only needed 1 more out to cover in the 8th, and they put in a reliever that basically pitched underhanded to the jays.
so again we add the total loss to the end of the line
line 1: 5 5 5 5 10 15 (lost 10 dollars on bet A, and 15 dollars on bet B)
keep in mind that a regular JM player would be down a lot more that 25 dollars at this point. and tomorrow's C bet will only be 20 dollars adding the first and last number together on the line.
so we will not profit in this jm unofficial series. but whatever is left on this line after tomorrow's game will be carried over into the next jm series.
things may look dark now with 2 C bets tomorrow. but keep in mind these plays are unofficial, and we are probably betting on the worst 2 teams in baseball lol. with official plays that meet the rpi, the lines would rarley get this long EVER. but this gives a perfect example of how the labouchere system protects your bank on slumping teams in the jm system.
in post #8 it shows how much money we are down and how much we are risking on the C bets
now here is the situation a martingle player would be in with these 2 series.
orioles:
A bet: risked $13.00 to win $10.00
B bet: risked $28.75 to win $23.00
current bank: -$41.75
approximent C bet: will risk $64.69 to win 51.75 (all this for the initial 10 dollar profit)
astros:
A bet: risked $20.00 to win $10.00
B bet: risked $42.00 to win $30.00
current bank: -$62.00
approximent C bet: will risk $100.72 to win $72.00 (for 10 dollar profit)
both combined:
current bank: -$103.75
C bets: will risk about $165.31 just to make 20 dollars on both plays
if both C bets lose:
martingle bank: -$269.06
laboucher bank: -$90.00
so you can see that the labouchere system will only lose about 1/3 of what the martingle would on an averagle C loss.
I have always been interested in doing this type of money management system but could never really grasp it! I will try and keep up myself and follow this thread!
glad to see that a few people are interested. i really hope this ends up being as profitable as jm's abc. i don't know about the rest of you, but i got sick of losing those C bets, wiping out all of my winnings from before.
you're right jose. the official plays would almost always win on the A or B bet. so the line wouldn't really grow too much.
i think on the unofficial plays i will start skipping the A bet, and if it doesn't win i will bet B and C if needed. this will reduce the losses on the lines.
as for the nba/nfl, i don't buy any points. i just go by the spread on wagerline or one of those sites. the team usually covers anyway. but if they only cover for jm's 3 pts and not me, i will stop that series and go to the next.
I assume you're going to carry this line over to the next jm bet. So, at what point do you cross out the line and consider it won? Do you keep going until there's no numbers left on the line? For instance, you would bet 25 on the next bet. Assuming you win, then you'd bet 20 on the next one. If you win, then 15 on the next one. Do you keep going like this until you've made the final $10 bet?
that is correct. you keep playing the same line until all the numbers are crossed out. after that happens, your bank will be up. you are still chasing your losses, just not doubling every time. this way it's not just 3 strikes and you're out by betting ABC martingle. the only downside is that it will take longer than 1 game to win back your debt and profit. it may take up to 2 weeks or longer to cross out your line. but if you were to lose a martingle C bet, it would take the rest of the season to recover.
Okay, so what about when you start a series, and the line is 5 5 5 5, so your first bet is $10, and you win, which would cross out the 1st and last number, but it still leaves you with 5 5 in the middle; are you supposed to be again, or you cross the line out as being finished? And if you do cross it out, in future lines, where you lose, and you have to add on to your line, why do you bet the final 5 5 in the middle, when you crossed out the line as finished if you won the first bet?
you could cross off the whole line if you prefer, since there is no debt and you made profit. i've just always seen this done with 4 numbers. the idea is to win enough money using your line of 5's. so that after you cross out 2-3 lines, you will have enough profit to start raising your bet amount on your new lines.
lets say i have 4 lines
5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5
if i successfully get them all crossed out, i have made a pretty decent profit in my bank. now instead of starting another line with 5, i will raise the numbers.
6 6 6 6 (starting bet $12) or 10 10 10 10 (starting bet $20)
it all depends on how aggressive/conservative you are with your bank
So after you have successfully crossed out 4 lines you can increase your bet to $6! I can't wait to start this system! Thanks for explaining this system in more detail!
since the red sox seem like the more dominant matchup to win, i will put them on line 1, which has the largest debt
line 1: 5 5 5 5 10 15 20
A bet on red sox friday 7:05 ET: bet 25 dollars
the odds for the red sox moneyline will be too high. betting odds -150 or higher in this system will not help you profit. so i will be splitting my bet in two. depending on the odds, i will bet a certain amount (of the 25 bucks) on the runline, to get a better payoff if the red sox can win by at least 2 runs. seems very possible against the o's lol. but in case they only win by 1 run, i will bet enough on the moneyline to where the whole bet will push, and i can walk away clean. but i will have to wait for the odds to come out tomorrow. and of course if the red sox lose the game straight up, we move on to bet B.
line 2: x 5 5 5 10 x
A bet on mets friday 7:10 ET: bet 15 dollars
not sure about this one either. the mets look like slight favorites now, but i will wait to see what kind of runline they get tomorrow. more than likely i will be betting the moneyline anyway.
i will post tomorrow afternoon with the exact bets and odds.
2-0 tonight! what a concept. bet against the orioles lol.
bank: -$25.30
record: 3-5
line 1: 5 5 5 10 15 (won A bet on red sox)
next A bet will be 20 dollars
line 2: 5 5 (won A bet on mets)
next A bet will be 10 dollars
so both of these series are considered over. the diamondbacks have an unofficial series going against the rockies. if their A bet fails, i might play the B tomorrow.
you are right he does suck. but these betting strategies are probably older than he is lol. they have been working for 30+ years. it's all about how you manage your $
i forgot to mention if you want to buy the 3 pts you can. you just wont make as much profit. if you look at past seasons, the road team usually covers without buying pts.
the lakers have been at +2.5 most of today. i bought a 1/2 pt because according to wagerline, they were +3 at one point. that's how i play the nba system. i just buy up to whatever the best spread has been since the line opened. it usually only requires buying 1/2 or 1 pt at the most.
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