1. #1
    FrozenMAN
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    The Florida Marlins Season Project: Year 2

    Welcome back to another MLB season and a thread devoted to the Florida Marlins. Last year’s thread turned out to be quite a fun one and we had a lot of insight from various people including The Lock, Karmiforum, and Bread (before he was booted). Hopefully people found the thread useful last year and at least got some insight into the games, I know I had a great time because the Fish are MY TEAM, and I live and die with them.

    As was the case last year, I don’t try to force plays daily so 162 Marlin only plays is highly unlikely but if something catches my eye then so be it. Last year we ended up betting only 85 games, but we had quite solid season and we hit both of our futures plays:

    Marlins Only: 49-35-1 (57.6%) +21.499 units
    MLB Overall: 78-58-2 +47.040 Units

    Hopefully this year will be just as profitable not only on the Fish but on all of MLB. So with that recap, let’s dive into a 2010 season preview:

    Off-Season Recap:
    After an incredible start last year, we quickly faded and went on a horrific 25 games stretch which turned out to be the main reason we missed the playoffs even with that late run we made. The end of the 6 year cycle, WS Champs in ’97 and ’03, led to owner Jeffrey Loria voicing his displeasure and his demand for a playoff berth in 2010. I can not possibly disagree with this statement given we have all the talent we need and anything other than a season that extends into October and September is a waste.

    In the off-season we lost a few guys, Jeremy Hermida who went to play second fiddle in the outfield in Boston, and Kiko Calero. Hermida ok, he never lived up to what I and everyone else expected, NL ROY and a dominant presence in RF. Calero though was a tough guy to lose after a tremendous season where he was one of the most reliable set up men in the league. With those losses we did gain a few players, mainly agreeing to bring back Dan Uggla and Cody Ross, both giving us that pop in the heart of the lineup which we lived on last year. We also bring in a new pitching coach, Randy St. Claire, who left Washington after doing several good things but didn’t get the results on the field. I really like this hire because Mark Wiley had his chance with the young arms of Andrew Miller, Chris Volstad, Rick Vanden Hurk and Annibal Sanchez but simply could not get any more results from them. St. Claire loves watching video and has already seen strides of improvement with all of them. We also recently gained Nate Robertson from the Tigers for Jay Voss, who was still a few years away. Robertson is a decent signing and hopefully he can give that extra veteran presence that the young arms like Miller and Vanden Hurk need. All in all, I would have liked to have added a few extra arms in the pen because that is still a point in question.

    Season Preview
    Position Players:
    As noted, last season was a disappointment and things are looking sky high for the Fish in 2010. Mr. Everything, Hanley Ramirez leads this crew and is coming off a Batting Title and wants more. There’s not much to say about this stud, but he should have another monster season and look for his fielding to improve once again this year. Rounding out the infield we have Uggla at 2B, Cantu mostly likely at 3B and Gaby Sanchez at 1B, after he won a heated spring battle with Logan Morrison. Morrison will be with the team though and offer a big left-handed bat off the bench. The duo of Paul Baker and Ronnie Paulino will share the duties behind the plate, though Baker is the number 1. I think these two guys are some of the most underrated catchers in the game and both have great bats and know how to call a game. The outfield consists of ROY Chris Coghlan in left, Cameron Maybin in center and Cody Ross in right. Though not flashy in names, all three are very reliable defensively and bring both speed and some reliable contact hitting with some pop to the lineup.

    Starting Pitchers:
    The staff is led by Josh Johnson, who just took home a pretty contract and is wrapped up for a long time. He had a GREAT season last year and could have won 20 games if a couple late leads had not been blown by the pen. He is the work horse of this team and has had several great showings this spring, where opposing hitters have commented that “ He looks effortless and at times almost unhittable.” Ricky Nolasco had quite a tumultuous 2009 season, starting 2-6 with an ERA of 9.07 before getting sent to the minors to retool and gain his confidence back in his second and third pitches. Upon his return, Ricky had a tremendous season, going 11-3, dropping his ERA to 5.06 and almost had a perfecto in one game and had 5 games with 10+ K’s, while before the demotion he had not exceeded 6. Behind these horses we have Annibal who has looked great in the spring and hopes to return to his 2008 form. The fourth spot goes to Chris Volstad and we’re rounded out by Nate Robertson, who together hope to get on the right track early because there are several capable arms to come in and replace them if needed.

    Bullpen:
    The pen is led by closer Leo Nunez, who showed some signs of brilliance last year while also showing times of concern. If he can eliminate the gopher ball and simply stop playing with hitters and just go after them, he will have a very surprising season. Brian Sanches is a great set-up man and will be expected to be just as reliable as he was last year, 4-2, ERA: 2.56 in 56 innings, with Calero gone. A young arm I like is Cristhian
    Martinez, who have lights out stuff but have been inconsistent at times but hopefully his time in the minors has solved those problems.

    Overall, the 2010 Florida Marlins are pretty much the same as the 2009 Fish but they come with another year of experience and a deeper burn to feel that rush of playoff baseball. Holding back my diehard views, I SERIOUSLY see this team competing to win the NL East, though almost every preview book as them in 3rd and 4th, which I don’t know how they get that. Loria is dedicated to wining this year and with the new stadium on the horizon, I truly believe that if moves are needed to be made, the GM Larry Beinfest, easily one of the best in all of sports, will get the job done and bring in some big names.

    As I mentioned, I hope this thread is a good source of information and offers some winners so let’s get to it.

    GOOD LUCK IN 2010 and GO FISH!!!!

  2. #2
    FrozenMAN
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    Three season long proposition bets that have caught my eyes for many of the reasons mentioned above and such include:

    Florida Marlins Over 80.5 Wins (-115 @ Bet Jamaica)
    Risk 5.750 units to win 5.000 units
    -I seriously can’t see how this team would finish under .500 unless the plane crashed on a road trip, plus -115 is a steal, it’s -135 at Bodog.


    Ricky Nolasco Total Season Wins OVER 14 Wins (-115 @ Bodog)
    Risk 2.600 units to win 2.261 units
    -After that tremendous return last season and what he’s done this preseason I expect Ricky to win at least 15 games and wouldn’t be shocked if he shoots past that and competes for the CY.


    Josh Johnson Total Season Wins OVER 15 Wins (-110 @ Bodog)
    Risk 2.600 units to win 2.364 units
    -See Nolasco.


    Hanley Ramirez Total RBIs OVER 95.5 (-130 @ Bodog)
    Risk 2.800 units to win 2.154 units

    -With Coghlan usually on base and Maybin starting to become more patient at the plate, Hanley at #3 should come up with a lot of men on base, plus for this team to win he MUST produce.

    I might add to that Total wins and get it to even 11.5 units in the next few days.

  3. #3
    aajreyno
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    tremendous information fellas! Thank you

  4. #4
    Coming Back!
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    Hey FrozenMan, good job last year. I'm a diehard Yankees fan, not a frontrunner like most. I loved them in the late 80s and early 90s when they suxed and the Mets owned NY. I actually went to game 5 in Philly last year and game 6 at Yankee Stadium. Anyway, I had a really rough time betting on baseball last year. And taking the Yankees is usually not profitable because there is always way to much juice.
    So, I'm thinking of adopting the Marlins as my gambling team and riding them this year. I like the Rays a lot too. But, I think there is more value in the Fish. Little concerned w/ middle relief, but that's a crapshoot for most teams. And Ross might start on DL.

  5. #5
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coming Back! View Post
    Hey FrozenMan, good job last year. I'm a diehard Yankees fan, not a frontrunner like most. I loved them in the late 80s and early 90s when they suxed and the Mets owned NY. I actually went to game 5 in Philly last year and game 6 at Yankee Stadium. Anyway, I had a really rough time betting on baseball last year. And taking the Yankees is usually not profitable because there is always way to much juice.
    So, I'm thinking of adopting the Marlins as my gambling team and riding them this year. I like the Rays a lot too. But, I think there is more value in the Fish. Little concerned w/ middle relief, but that's a crapshoot for most teams. And Ross might start on DL.
    lol i hear ya dude, -400+ ML and -180+ RL LOLOLOLOL not worth it

    i figure i know a lot and really follow the fish so i might as well focus my betting on them. last year was 1st time actually bet them alot because the year before i was just in a team specific contest and only bet them here and there....

    yeah the biggets question with this team is the pen, but i think we can get it figured out, or atleast i hope.....the one big plus is that with robertson as our #5 that opens up miller/vanden hurk and west to come back up and move into the pen if need be as well as serve as spot starters....

    and i saw cody just landed on the DL most likely and if he's absent, bonifacio will most likely play till his return. ross really wants to play and have a monster season after going to arbitration and really taking advantage of a great 09 campaign, i think his salary almost 5x lol

    GL dude

  6. #6
    Stealinhome
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    Sounds fun

  7. #7
    xyzky
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    Enjoyed your information last year, good luck this year!

  8. #8
    freeVICK
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    uggla is a joke. I'm almost certain he closes his eyes and swing as hard as he can when batting.... he gets lucky about 30 times throughout the season

  9. #9
    FrozenMAN
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    yeah he's feast or famine but HOPEFULLY he learned to simply make contact and manufacture runs instead of just the long ball this year as cantu did due to his wrist injury...we'll see...he's still ****ed up since that AS collapse, that ruined the rest of his season that year...

  10. #10
    BillAccpetor
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    Yes the fish project is back!

  11. #11
    HustleGetPaid
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    Will definitely be following this thread!!! Marlins fan along with the Rays, best of luck and let's make some bank!!!

  12. #12
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillAccpetor View Post
    Yes the fish project is back!
    LOL, you're a fan eh???

    very nice sir

  13. #13
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by HustleGetPaid View Post
    Will definitely be following this thread!!! Marlins fan along with the Rays, best of luck and let's make some bank!!!
    marlins fan ok, rays though....lol, good luck to you too, hopefully we can have a good year both on the field and with the betting slips

  14. #14
    FrozenMAN
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    wow nate robertson 7 innings, 2 hits, 6 ks and 1 earned run, WOW if we can get nate to pitch like that consistently this year as our #5 WATCH OUT!!!

  15. #15
    TheCommish
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    Good luck to you and the fish

  16. #16
    rochestertitans
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    finally another marlin fan

  17. #17
    FrozenMAN
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    OPENING DAY 2010, IT'S FINALLY HERE, SO LET'S GET IT STARTED!!

    April 5, 2010
    Florida Marlins ML +107 (Bet Jamaica)
    Risk 2.050 units to win 2.194 units LOSS


    Looking at the slate of games on Monday, one of the most intriguing Opening Day matchups takes place at 1pm at Citi Field at 1pm. In a battle of aces and 2010 CY Young hopefuls, Josh Johnson leads the Florida Marlins against Johan Santana and the New York Mets. Johnson gets his first Opening Day Start and is psyched and I expect big things from him all season, especially after signing that monster contract, 4 years, $39 million. It should be noted that in the spring though, he hasn’t faired that well finishing 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA, though after starting bad, his last few starts have been improved though the gopher ball has gotten him in trouble. In his young career, JJ has always turned it on when the Mets are sitting in the other dugout; he’s 7-0 all-time. Last year he was 3-0 with a 2.09 ERA in 4 starts last year. In those 4 games he logged 28 innings (1 was a complete game 2-1 W), gave up 28 hits but has 22 K’s to go with only 3 walks.

    On the other side, Johan Santana gets the ball for what marks his 5th career Opening Day start; he’s currently 3-1 with a 4.07 ERA. IN his career, he has faced the Marlins 7 different times and has compiled a 5-1 record to go with a 1.68 ERA when facing the Fish. Johan always gives the Fish trouble with his pitches because we are usually antsy at the plate and fall behind in the count instead of taking some pitches to get a better look at him and waiting for our pitches. This is a major problem with Cameron Maybin, but hopefully the AAA ball and Spring Training has ironed that out and left him with more plate patience.

    In terms of the roster, the Fish have everyone suited up as expected with the only big exception being reliever Brian Sanches. Sanches injured himself in the final game of the Spring versus AA Jacksonville as he was warming up in the 7th. He’s been placed on the 15 DL with a sore hamstring and joins utility man Brett Carrol who’s on the DL as well. Hopefully this is not going to be a season long problem with Sanches because he was one of the most reliable set-up men we had last year, which I discussed in a previous post. Cody Ross will be in the lineup and starting in Left after questions that he’d be sent to the DL with a sore right leg, but after playing well in a game in Jupiter on Saturday he’s good to go. Also look for Ronnie Paulino to get the nod behind the plate, while John Baker can serve as a pinch hitter if needed.

    Hopefully we can get a nice start from JJ tomorrow and jump out early on Johan and pick up a nice Opening Day Marlins Victory for both the team and underdog bettors.
    Last edited by FrozenMAN; 04-05-10 at 02:23 PM.

  18. #18
    watertight
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    gl this year frozen, fish can contend if they put it all together.

  19. #19
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by watertight View Post
    gl this year frozen, fish can contend if they put it all together.
    2 words: Pitching Staff

    we get what we want from the staff and the pen then WATCH OUT...if not then......AYE PAPI!

  20. #20
    TheLock
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    love love love OVER 80.5 wins FrozenMan


    OVER on FLA season win total has been the closest thing to free $$$ the past 4 years.


    Good luck this year.


    Like I said last year, I think you could have an even better year if you fade the Fish once in a while based on your knowledge of them. The advantageous part of knowing your team inside and out is knowing the right time to fade them.


    Have an awesome year and I'm very pumped that bases are back.

  21. #21
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by rochestertitans View Post
    finally another marlin fan


    I'm a sick Marlins fan as well rochester.


    Consistently one of the most underrated teams in MLB (plus I live in Ft Laud)

  22. #22
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    love love love OVER 80.5 wins FrozenMan


    OVER on FLA season win total has been the closest thing to free $$$ the past 4 years.


    Good luck this year.


    Like I said last year, I think you could have an even better year if you fade the Fish once in a while based on your knowledge of them. The advantageous part of knowing your team inside and out is knowing the right time to fade them.


    Have an awesome year and I'm very pumped that bases are back.
    yeah i try to dude, i mainly wait until i see stuff i like pushes me towards the fish cause i rarely like betting against them, like last year when we shitted it up took like 2.5 weeks off.

    simply based on last year, it seems like when im strong fir them it pans out pretty decently and when your against them strong thats turns out pretty good, TOGETHER we can win 100+ games i think if we look at one another lol

    also, STOP PICKING AGINAST THEM, we could win 100+ for real then lol

    GOOD LUCK DUDE!

  23. #23
    Ace_of_Spades
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    Prefer the under in this game, though it sits at 7. Would have preferred the hook as 4-3 is not an uncommon score in baseball. I put the chance of this going over the total to the bullpens, more the Marlins, but a pitchers dual is expected imo.

  24. #24
    TheLock
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    JJ struggled a bit this spring and a struggling pitching staff will be the theme of all FLA losses this year.


    If there is one giant weakness in FLA this year, it's pitching. After JJ and Nolasco, it gets really scary.


    Our lineup is very sexy though especially when Baker is starting.

  25. #25
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    JJ struggled a bit this spring and a struggling pitching staff will be the theme of all FLA losses this year.


    If there is one giant weakness in FLA this year, it's pitching. After JJ and Nolasco, it gets really scary.


    Our lineup is very sexy though especially when Baker is starting.
    eh i dont know....the staff i beleive in. i love jj/ricky up front, they will combine for 32+ wins im calling. annibal is finally gonna revert back to what he was and be that solid #3 though they did just move him to 5th for robertson, who i like in that pickup. he was brillant in that start he got in his fish debut. again volstad is a question makr mainly cause of that ****in gopher ball but i truly believe that gettin wiley outta there and bringing in randy st. claire is going to be HUGE! i expect all of the starts to bring in ATLEAST 8+ wins.

    the pen though, i'm with you on that one lock, especially if sanches and his hammy injury is one of those that lingers ALL YEAR. i think leo can get the job done but simply must trust his pitches more. is pinto comes in once this year and blows it i'm going to ****in flip though cause we saw that ATLEAST 5 times last year and each time i went literally ****in nuts and wanted to call hugo and tell him to come pick up his shit player and bnig him back to venezuela.

    loria WANTS TO WIN BAD this year and i think if we're in it near the deadline then some big names will be coming to South Florida.

    you got any games planned yet to attend lock?? i'm gettin 2/3 games when they come up and play the white sox and then if im around with work load up on that season ending series in milwaukee. i wana come to FLA and see em but i dont know, maybe a weekend trip

  26. #26
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace_of_Spades View Post
    Prefer the under in this game, though it sits at 7. Would have preferred the hook as 4-3 is not an uncommon score in baseball. I put the chance of this going over the total to the bullpens, more the Marlins, but a pitchers dual is expected imo.

    are you going to put up and back up those mets claims you made earlier and we said we'd bet?

    150 point bet who has more wins fish or mets?

  27. #27
    TheLock
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    I have tickets for Opening Day and May 5th vs Lincecum

  28. #28
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    I have tickets for Opening Day and May 5th vs Lincecum
    sick, as soon as i can buy opening day tixs for the new stadium im locking em in LOL

    stadium is coming along nicely, have you driven past it at all?

  29. #29
    Ace_of_Spades
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    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenMAN View Post
    are you going to put up and back up those mets claims you made earlier and we said we'd bet?

    150 point bet who has more wins fish or mets?
    Yeppers!

  30. #30
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace_of_Spades View Post
    Yeppers!
    you sure? we'll do it on the honor system at the end of the year ok? and if the loser does not have the 150 points at the end of the season then they must pay the winner 7pts a day until it's paid off ok?

  31. #31
    Ace_of_Spades
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    Ok.

  32. #32
    FrozenMAN
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    aye....JJ's mishap in bottom of the 1st was untimely, and continues his problems with gophers balls...hopefully he'll get it cleared away, he did have some nice jams he worked out of with bases loaded on 2 times and 1 out. bats were AWFUL today, left way too many men on and paulino and maybin were just killers of any momentum...looks like maybin w 3ks didnt learn jack shit and will be sent down within 2 weeks if it continues.....

    good thing it was bet using a freeplay but still a loss is a loss and unwanted, hopefully we can rebound tomororow with nolasco, who should go off as a slight favorite im thinking

  33. #33
    mitote
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    I love this time of year. All the fans think their team will win it all no matter how mediocre they are. Tough start for the fishes today. Unlike the start they had last year that almost made their entire season.

  34. #34
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by mitote View Post
    I love this time of year. All the fans think their team will win it all no matter how mediocre they are. Tough start for the fishes today. Unlike the start they had last year that almost made their entire season.

  35. #35
    kmarinouofm
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    glad to see this up and running again.. hope all is well homie.. stop by my MLB underdog thread when u have time..

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