I’m posted a rant on my tennis thread bc caught some flack for not posting a play I personally played. I just want to post it here bc this applies to baseball and all sports just as much as tennis. And given that baseball is mainly money lines this example in particular is very relevant to betting baseball
Also just a heads up I played Samsanova +220 vs Sablenka. Caught some rude comments bc I didn’t post it but here’s the thing for anyone newer at this game. I played Samsanova +220 (Vs Sablenka) at bet365. I then got caught up at work with some craziness. And wasn’t able to put the play up until several hours later. At that point Samsanova was the +180 at best. I didnt post it bc at this price it was a no play or very small play at very best. My point is if you take this at all serious and want to make money you have to practice money management and getting the best line.
for example let’s say Samsanova plays Sablenka 3 times. I bet Samsanova everytime at +220 odds each time. I post it but someone else gets +180 each time. Samsanova wins once and loses the other 2 times
At +220 odds for 100$ bettor
match 1: Samsanova win +220$
match 2: samsanova loss -100$
match 3: samsanova loss -100$
net profit for this guy +20$
samsanova at +180 odds
match 1: samsanova win +180$
match 2: samsanova loss -100$
match 3: samsanova loss -100$
net profit for this guy MINUS 20$!
This might be academic for most people here but getting good numbers is more (or just as) important as finding winners. I just show the above example to show that two people can bet the same exact plays with the same exact amount dollars per play and one guy is a winning bettor while the other is a losing bettor just from line shopping and getting the best number. This is actually one of the reasons I can’t see paying for picks or big time touts. If you are paying for picks and these large groups are moving the numbers before you can get to them then it’s worthless. Even if the tout is winning supplying a winning strategy - if you aren’t getting the same numbers the picks are relatively worthless most of the time.
JUST A RANT mainly to the responses I got on Twitter for not posting samsanova even though the line had moved.
SO MANY NEW PEOPLE IN THIS INDUSTRY ON TWITTER AND EVERY OTHER PLATFORM. IF YOU ARE FOLLOWING SOMEONES ADVICE MAKE SURE THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING BC I PROMISE 99% of these people have no clue what they are talking about and most of them are leading people to lose money. Apparently No one on Twitter ever loses despite only playing 7 leg parlays and always taking the worst of number.
Wednesday baseball
Angels/orioles over 8.5 (-115) (0.7u)
Braves f5/full game -115 (1u)
Royals f5 -115 (0.6u)
Braves team total over 5.5 (0.5u)
Rockies +190 (0.5u)
Brewers/pirates under 8.5 (0.8u)
Baseball will be fewer and further between as I find this time of year tougher and trying to adjust from dumping off extra units down the stretch. Been a good year thus far and want to not try to force. Spending a lot of time capping football so less time for baseball.
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