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MR OCTOBERS 2022 Season Long MLB Props/Futures/Plays
Just wanted to get my thread for this year up. This and Tennis are by far my strongest sports and have been for years dating back. I will post all my plays here throughout the weekend as my preseason card is pretty much finalized. Hope to have everything up by Sunday night or earlier! Good luck all you MLB bettors! Lets win some money again this year!
here are the last couple years final results. Hope to replicate!
Season win totals/props +4.7u✅
2020 season 173-160 +17.596u✅
playoffs 22-26 -7.788u❌
playoffs -10.788u❌ Rough playoffs
2020 season & playoff total +11.508u✅✅✅
FINAL SEASON TALLY 2021:
MLB Season 203-185 +5.658u✅
Props season record 4-1 +2.771u✅
season props/win totals:10-7 +17.14u✅✅
MLB Playoff record: 17-15 +3.545u✅
World series series bets: 1-1 +3.5u✅
mvp bets: +6u✅
Props: -2.30u❌
2021 Grand total: +36.341u✅
Alright guys! Ill just do a quick run down of where im at on each team and my favorite bet for each team if i have any. I will do a comprehensive list at the end. My win totals have been very profitable over the years and a lot of well respected bettors will tell you that they are not worth hanging your money up for 6th months etc. I disagree with this whole heartedly as i believe they are the most profitable betting vehicle that exists bc the elimination of short term variance. The baseball season is so long therefore it allows water to find its level. Hot starts or cold starts should still even out by years end.
As always some key strategies when attacking win totals.
1) Shop for the best number
2) those juiced half wins aren't usually worth it as a half win is worth about only 7 cents of juice. Therefore an over 70.5 -105 compared to an over 69.5 at -125 you would be better off just taking the over 70.5.
3) identify team as seller or buyers come all star break. Some teams have already shown their hand per say as sellers for example. The Reds and Athletics. therefore expect more of the same.
4) identify division strength and interleague schedule.
5) Depth matters! Baseball is filled with injuries and given the long season depth will play a major factor in determining a crucial amount of wins!
6) as always practice good money management and NEVER bet more than you are willing to lose. Even if its recreational! The idea is to win and make money! I know some really good bettors out there but don't profit long term bc they have no sense or care for money management! trust me this is just as important if not more so than picking winners and capping well!
Enough Rambling lets get into the juggernaut of the AL EAST!
Baltimore Orioles. I don't have a ton to say about this team and didn't target much in terms of playing them anywhere really. They have some young promise and some interesting players like John Means and Cedric Mullins who will both be valuable to your fantasy leagues. I actually show a little value on the Orioles Win total over 62.5 (i have them projected about 64.4 wins) but im not touching it due to the strength of the rest of the division as there are zero other bad teams in this division. Would i be surprised if they somehow still pass the win total due to a so called war of attrition from the rest of the division. Not really but im still not getting involved.
What i did target here was a player prop i was seeing quite some value in. And contrary to most of my player prop bets ( I usually try to find unders) This one is an Over. John Means Over 7.5 Win (-125). And despite not usually being able to get this much down on a prop they took 2 units! This is just a slight pivot (from the win total) with a prop that has plenty more value imo. Means has solid underlying metrics and the left field fence move will surely help his Homerun numbers. He carried a 3.62 ERA despite allowing an alarming homerun rate. I expect some positvie regression in terms of Home run rate meaning he shouldn't allow as many this year.
Give me John Means over 7.5 Wins as a better bet than the Orioles win total as i can't see them getting over the 62.5 if he doesn't win at least 8 games. And on the other side if they go under 62.5 wins i can still see him winning 8 games or more as i have him projected closer to 10 wins which gives us a ton of value. Injury is always a risk going over on season long props but the value here outweighs the risk.
Lean over 62.5 wins but no confidence and wouldnt play it
Fantasy targets: Cedric Mullins, John Means, deeper leagues Mountcastle/Mancini, dynasty or deep keeper leagues Grayson Rodriguez
Play: John Means Over 7.5 Wins (-125). (2u)
Boston Red Sox.
A lot of buzz here this offseason with how this team preformed last year and made the addition of Trevor Story which will surely boost this potent offense even more. Devers and Dalbec are exciting youngsters as well mixed in with a lot of veteran offensive talent in JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts and company. So the offense should be great and fantasy wise i would definitely target plenty of these guys (devers in particular)
But despite the public buzz im on the other side of this team. Both the starting pitching and the bullpen just arent there for me. Sale and Eovaldi being the 1/2 punch just isnt enough for me. These guys can both be really good obviously but they aren't getting any younger and they also have heavy injury risk. Behind them you have the likes of Tanner Houck, Pivetta, Wacha, Rich hill. In a weaker division the offense might be able to overcome this lack of pitching but the Jays, Rays, and Yankees all have enough offense to keep up here. Now if things go right for them sure they could surpass the win total but i have them projected 83.5ish and ill stick to that with a think pitching staff.
Shop around still seeing a 87.5 out there in a very tough division! Also took as much as i could on Chris Sale under 9.5 wins as more of an injury and just selling on him in general.
Play: Boston Red Sox under 87.5 (3u)
Play: Chris Sale under 9.5 wins (-115) (1u)
Last edited by Mr0ctober; 04-04-22 at 09:38 AM.
Tampa Rays:
I was hoping the market would give me a much better number on the Rays as i was planning to go over. The projection systems never seem to like this team and with the buzz of the Jays and Yanks and Red sox. I thought we might get some low hanging fruit as i have them projected at 90.7 wins. Best im seeing is an 88.5 but its juiced and again given the injury to Baz i just can't get behind it despite loving most everything about this team. Maybe we get a slower start and can find some good division odds mid year. But for now i just see nothing outside of targeting Wander Franco or Arozenrena for fantasy and i did take a smaller flyer on Wander Franco at 25/1 for MVP.
Play: Nothing (do lean to the over but laying off here)
New York Yankees:
Once a resident of New York- Yankees baseball is incredible! love them or hate them they are what people think of in terms of the history of baseball! I actually think we are finding some good value on this team here in terms of the division prices. Yankees are listed at +200 and better at some shops. Perhaps we are giving the Jays too much credit in this division? I am seeing an over 91.5 (-115). I lean to the over but again this division is so freaking hard to determine because of how tough it should play. We could easily see the division winner winning their division but going under their win total.
Cole is still an elite talent despite his elevated ERA numbers. He struggled some last year for him but he carried a 2.95 FIP last year in the 2nd half of the season therefore i think he is back to his anchoring way this year! Severino seems to be trending in the right direction and if we can get a 1-2 punch of prime Cole, Severino this team becomes Dan-ger-ous
All that being said if you are a PECOTA truth-er per say they love the Yankees as they project them to have 98.7 wins.. The rest of the Market and myself included has them closer to 93 wins.
I haven't laid a dime on this team and probably won't but i have a stronger lean to the over and if you like them over. You might as well throw some money on their divisional odds at a nice +220 price or better!
Fantasy wise: Target Gerrit Cole if he slides a touch due to last years numbers. Severino a nice late round addition to your fantasy pitching staff!
Blue Jays:
I can sit here and ramble about how all the kids on the team are another year older or the offseason additions. If you want to know they surely will be much improved compared to last year! The team looks to be right up there with the Dodgers in terms of the best team in the bigs this year. But PECOTA who i have much respect for has them at 91.7 wins and to be honest that scares me a little. Im higher on them as i have them at 94 wins for the year per my projections.
They did lose Cy Young Winner Robbie Ray but Jose Berrios really excelled here last year and if he can make another step forward. He could be right in the same boat as Robbie Ray last year. and Gausman, Kikuchi, Ryu and Manoha should be able to carry the water with the offense that sets foot on the diamond everyday!
Pythag wins last year had them at 99 wins while they actually won 91 games. Showing they underperformed by quite a wide margin last year.
As i mentioned with the Yankees it wouldnt surpise me is the division winner goes under the Win total therefore ill lay off the over 92.5 and swim with the rest of the country in taking the Jays to win the AL East at +195 (shop around)
Fantasy outlook: obviously can look at most any of these guys in the lineup, Jose Berrios
Fantasy sleeper: Jordan Romano. Might be a nice closer thats slipping under the radar in your drafts despite being on a high win team that should provide plenty of opportunities!
Play: Jays to win the AL East +195 (1.5u)
Gonna put the whole AL Central in one here as a lot of this stuff correlates with each other.
I am high on the Twins this year as i think they could steal the division giving good health luck. I missed the best numbers on the Twins at over 78.5 as its up to 81.5 most places. I would still play that over as i think they can surpass the .500 mark. I like the addition of Correa. but i really like the starting staff more than most. The deceptive Joe Ryan & Bailey Ober are two breakout candidates this year imo. add that with a very solid pickup in Sonny Gray and a Dylan bundy who has shown some promise. we could have a very sneaky contender.
And since i'm higher on the twins and little lower on the White Sox (although i still think they win the division just don't see any value in the price). A lot of these bets will correlate while some serve as a somewhat hedge hoping we can middle kinda deal.
Indians are likely sellers but this organization seems to just manufacture incredible pitching. and since i am a little lower on the White sox than the market and way lower on the tigers i will take a smaller preseason 1u play here with them on the over.
The Tigers are the team where i just am not buying like the rest of the MLB betting community. Sure they have plenty of talent but i don't love the free swinging Baez signing. Eduardo Rodriguez will be a nice addition and Mize and Skubal definitley have the ability but i dont buy into this bullpen at all and i don't love the lineup. Therefore they are one of my most favorite win totals of the year! I do like Akil Baddoo as a fantasy target in the later deep rounds!
Plays:
Twins Over 81.5 Wins (-105) (2u)
White Sox Under 92.5 Wins (1u)
Tigers Under 80.5 Wins (-115) (4u)
White Sox to win the Central -220 (2u)
Twins to win the Central +600 (1u)
Cleveland Guardians Over 76.5 Wins +100 (1u)
AL West:
If anyone remembers last year i loved the Astros in fact i cashed some of the biggest bets of my life on them over their win total, to make playoffs and to win the Division! But who cares that was last year and in this business you are only as good as your next bet.
This year i'm a little down on the Astros compared to last year and thats partly because of their roster (which i actually still like for the most part) and partly because I think ths division has gotten much much tougher.
I don't usually always fade the public bc lets be honest the public isn't always wrong by any means. But ill start with the Seattle Mariners who about 20 mins ago just announced that Julio Rodriguez has made the opening day roster. I would rush to your sportsbooks and look for the best number you can find on Julio Rodriguez to win Rookie or th Year in the AL. As for the rest of the team i don't like the Mariners like everyone else does. I think last year was somewhat of a luckbox season and i don't think they repeat anything close. Despite some exciting young talent i have the MAriners projected at 79.5 wins. Well under the 84.5 win total that im currently seeing.
Rangers:
I dont love the pitching here but i am excited to see what Jon Gray can do outside of Coors (despite his impressive numbers at Coors) and i do love the addition of Corey Seagar and Marcus Siemen. The win total is extremely low here and since i lower on the Astros and Mariners that means i have to be higher on someone. Well the Rangers are one of the teams and i think they can get upper 70s in terms of wins. Found a rangers over 73.5 at even money and hit it!
One of the reasons i like the Rangers over is because the Athletics have already shown that they are in rebuild mode and punting on the 2022 season. Look you are going to hear don't take the under on Billy Bean at such a low total. And while that is a decent angle i don't buy it. There are still a couple under 70.5s out there but move fast because the totals seem to be falling rapidly. w/o too much to say i think this team could be one of the worst in all of the Majors and may lose 100 games.!
The Angels seem to be everyones darling every year and never seems to pan out. The Trout/Ohtani combo are exciting no doubt but it takes more than a couple guys to win a division or a playoff series. If you think a Rendon, Syndergarrd revival happens this year than you may want to take a look at the win total over or the divisional odds. As for me i just don't see enough pitching depth here nor have enough organizational trust here to get behind this team. I have them right at about 84 wins and given the market is 84.5 im right in line. I'm actually looking to fade some mike trout player props as well as i think hes far from what he once was and seems to struggle to stay healthy. Im staying away completely but will have some Ohtani MVP and Cy young futures because he is the most exciting player in baseball and who doesn't want to root for that.
I saved the Astros for last. Part of me feels like i owe them a division bet for cashing so much for us last year but the Win Total seems too high and like i said i don't love Verlander and McCullers injury has me worried about this team. If things go south this team could blow it up and look to restart given that they didn't have much interest in resigning Correa to keep the band together. I did take some under 92.5 for 1u but i wouldn't be surprised if i grab a mid season divisional price if we can get a + money depending on health and other factors.
PLAYS:
Mariners Under 84.5 (5u)
Athletics Under 70.5 (5u)
Rangers Over 73.5 +100 (3u)
Astros under 92.5 Wins (1u)
Julio Rodriguez AL Rookie of the Year +750 (1u)
NL West:
Dodgers everything. I wont go on about how good they are. Its a team i cannot see losing this division. If we get another Giants magical season then just tip our hats.
Dodgers to win the NL West -210 (5u)
Padres are exciting. Who knows how long tatis is out. I like Joe Musgrove as his swing and miss stuff is off the charts. Teh addition of Manea is something i love as well but as far as a win total i cannot get involved given too many questions. And with no Tatis i don't love this lineup all that much. Nothing here.
The Giants are an organization that just seems to do so many things right. It seems magical at times how they win games but someone once said something like - luck doesn't last forever - and if it does then it might not be luck- The Giants are just an organization i just don't want to put my money up against long term. The staff looks to be solid given they can maintain some good health. and in that ballpark that is enough to win any game. I have them projected low 80s in terms of wins and the number 84.5 is showing value on the under but i have decided to lay off and just root for my very large Dodgers divisional future here.
The Rockies are interesting. A lot of well respected opinions of friends seem to be drastically different here. Some really like the over while the others really like the under. Im siding with the under. I think this team is just in a division that will play tough and i think their home record comes back to average this year. Give me the under 69.5 at even money. If i lose on the Rockies under again this year its nothing more than the tip of a hat.
Part of the reason im on the Rockies is because im on the Dbacks over. This is one where i look at the roster as an avid baseball fan and i don't like it at all. I don't like Mad Bum at all and am a Zach Davies hater as well. They do have some promise in Gallen, Merril Kelly and Luke Weaver though perhaps and if Mad Bum can contribute some they might fare better than thought. The lineup might be a little better than people think as well. perhaps Varsho, Smith, and Beer can make enough of an impact to get this win total over. I don't like putting my money on an over here but my numbers project this team closer to 71 wins. So with 64.5 out there i have to play it. Terrible teams lose 100 games. I think the Dbacks are bad but they arent terrible perhaps we get a 68-94 type record here.
Plays:
Dodgers to win the NL West -200 (5u)
Rockies under 69.5 +100 (1.5u)
Diamondbacks Over 64.5 Wins -115 (4u)
NL Central:
If you Remember we got the Brewers last year at a nice +400 price to win the division. A line that seemed totally out of whack. Perhaps the Brewers don't carry enough flash to the odds makers. I don't know what it is but i think this team is far and away the best team in the division. In fact i have them projected at nearly 91 wins. Nearly 12 games better than the Cardinals. Yet the Divisional price is at Brewers -135. Perhaps the Cardinals can ad lib enough pitching wise to compete with the Brewers. After all the Cardinals do always seem to compete no matter the circumstance.
Play:
Brewers OVer 88.5 Wins (2u)
Cardinals Under 85.5 Wins (4u)
Brewers to win NL Central -135 (5u)
The Rest of the division is in rebuild mode. Pirates will be awful, Reds have shown they are punting on the season but they do have some interesting young talent, and the Cubs may win a few games but not enough to compete with the Brewers.
Lean to the Reds over 74.5 but i just do not trust this organization as they seem so very poorly ran.
Lean to the Pirates over as well.
But these plays all correlate with the Cardinals under. So instead i will hope the Pirates, Reds and Cubs just play the Cardinals tough all year.
Last but not least NL East.
Full disclaimer i am an Atlanta Braves fan. But i try not to be biased with my picks.
Everyone saying how big the Freddie Freeman loss is. And dont get me wrong it is a huge loss. But Matt Olson is now in town. Is he Freddie Freeman - no he isnt - Is he Freddie Freeman 5 years ago - he might be - Olson a little more pop - a little less average type hitter. but he plays a great first base and production wise subtracting Freeman while adding Olson - you arent losing as much as you think.
Im not sure how the World Series Champions are undervalued here but they are. Brought in the likes of Colin Mchugh and Kenley Jansen to bolster an already stud bullpen. Charlie Morton, Mad Max Fried, and Low heart rate Ian Anderson we still have a pretty stud rotation here. Ynoa and Kyle Wright will likely step forward and who knows if Mike Soroka can help this team with a late season push?!
They get Acuna back sooner rather than later and Ozuna is back off domestic violence charges (like it or not he can hit though). This lineup is loaded with some extreme pitching potential and a lockdown bullpen. I feel like its a Broken record that everyone loves the Mets or Phillies yet come september we see the Braves at the top. I think its no different this year. Braves to win the NL East and Braves over the win total!
In fairness i do like what the Mets have done and but so much rides on the health of an aging Max Scherzer and a healthy Degrom. For the sake of the MLB i hope Degrom can get a healthy year - as a braves fan hes a joy to watch and one of my favorite guys to watch throw a baseball ever. Hes mesmerizing and i will have some Cy Young futures on him given the chance that he does put together a pretty full season.
I wont play the Mets under but i do lean that way.
Instead i will take the Baby Fish Over 75.5 Wins. I think this team is a sleeper to compete for the division and i think they surpass 80 wins. I have them projected at 81 wins and can easily see a .500 ball club here. The pitching prospects this team has is the best in baseball. This will sound funny but if you are a fan of pitching the Marlins are must see TV. Alcantara, Rogers, Lopez, Hernandez, and with how Luzardo has looked in the spring this team is going to surprise the common MLB fans.
Offensively we see some nice additions as well. Joey Wendell, Jacob Stallings, Jesus Sanchez, Jorge Soler, Avasail Garcia are all very solid non house hold name additions! Give me the Fish Over 75.5 as one of my favorite win totals of the year even in a loaded division!
The nationals i don't have much to say about them. The pitching depth just isn't there, i don't like the bullpen, and the lineup despite featuring Juan Soto & Nelson Cruz just doesnt appeal to me. Juan Soto at bats are must see TV but thats about it when it comes to this team. I can see them selling as well as this is heading for a full on rebuild that wont be around Juan Soto.
Plays:
Braves to win the NL East +140 (2u)
Braves over 90.5 (2u)
Marlins Over 75.5 Wins (-115) (5u)
Recap for the ones that do not want to hear the reasonings! I trust my win totals & Divisional futures bets more than anything. As for the player props i would tread more lightly. But i did play all the ones listed over the last couple weeks. Best of luck please read the bottom notes if you plan on tailing! thanks!
Win Totals:
Boston Red Sox under 87.5 (3u)
Twins Over 81.5 Wins (-105) (2u)
White Sox Under 92.5 Wins (1u)
Tigers Under 80.5 Wins (-115) (4u)
White Sox to win the Central -220 (2u)
Twins to win the Central +600 (1u)
Cleveland Guardians Over 76.5 Wins +100 (1u)
Mariners Under 84.5 (5u)
Athletics Under 70.5 (5u)
Rangers Over 73.5 +100 (3u)
Astros under 92.5 Wins (1u)
Rockies under 69.5 +100 (1.5u)
Diamondbacks Over 64.5 Wins -115 (4u)
Brewers OVer 88.5 Wins (2u)
Cardinals Under 85.5 Wins (4u)
Braves over 90.5 (2u)
Marlins Over 75.5 Wins (-115) (5u)
Divisional props:
Play: Jays to win the AL East +195 (1.5u)
Dodgers to win the NL West -200 (5u)
Brewers to win NL Central -135 (5u)
Braves to win the NL East +140 (2u)
Player Props:
John Means Over 7.5 Wins (-125) (2u)
Chris Sale under 9.5 wins (-115) (1u)
Julio Rodriguez AL Rookie of the Year +750 (1u)
Mike Trout under .299 average (+100) (1u)
Anthony Rendon under 89.5 RBIs (-115) (0.5u)
Rendon Under 25.5 Homers (-115) (0.5u)
Flaherty Under 10.5 Wins (-125) (1u)
Sonny Gray Over 9.5 Wins (-115) (1u)
Hunter Renfroe under 85.5 Runs scored (-115) (1u)
Trevor Rogers over 9 wins (-115) (1.5u)
Alcantara Over 10.5 Wins (-110) (1u)
Trea Turner over 29.5 Sbs (-115) (1u)
Jazz Chisholm over 23.5 SBs (-115) (1u)
Ohtani OVer 90.5 Runs Scores (-125) (1.5u)
Greinke under 9.5 Wins (-105 ) (1u)
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 10 wins -115 (1.5u)
Eloy Jimenez Under 33.5 Homers (-115) (1u)
Dylan Cease under 220.5 Ks (-115) (1u)
Kenley Jansen Under 32.5 saves (-115) (1u)
COUPLE NOTES:
1) i am way less confident in the player props but am showing plenty of value on all of them. But haven't ever dove into props this much so this is less backtested. In other words im much more confident in the win totals and Divisional Futures.
2). If you plan on tailing all or most of these DO NOT tie up too much bankroll if you plan on betting every day during the regular season. You have to adjust unit sizes accordingly. MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE KEY FACTOR TO TURNING LONG TERM PROFITS!
3) Disclaimer: I have been very profitable for 13 of the last 15 years. I have ha one really terrible year, the other year was a losing year but not awful. Then there have been some huge years and some solid years profit wise. All of this does not mean i will surely again this year. I will definitely try as always and hope to continue but nothing is certain. Thats why i preach money management.. There will be bad swings and good swings. Do not over bet early in the year or try to press when things are going bad. trust the process- track your plays- and have fun. If your flipping out over the result of one game you clearly bet too much. Do not bet to the point where you are not enjoying your days or get so caught up in the result of a single game or an individual week where it is harming your quality of life! MONEY MANAGEMENT & have fun!
Alright enough rambling good luck all! looking forward to opening day! cheers all.
Added two win totals:
Angels over 83.5 wins -110 (2u)
Pirates under 65.5 wins -115 (3u)
What is your Twitter account?
I had to set up another account and can’t find yours.
Thanks
@betweenchalk is the Twitter handle.
OPENING DAY!!!!
Braves -168 (1u)
Dbacks +121 (0.8u)
Astros +108 (1u)
Nationals +107 (0.8u)
Already played ATL, MIL Division Winners, adding TOR+200. BOL MrO.Originally Posted by Mr0ctober
thanks BOA12. I will say a very smart friend of mine is on the Yankees as his favorite win total/divisional future. It’s someone I don’t like being against but here we are best of luck to you as well!
Braves -168 (1u) ❌ I’m considering this a bad beat bc of the amount of bloop singles the reds were able to achieve. While the Braves had tons of missiles that seem to be right at someone. -1.68u❌
Dbacks +121 (0.8u)✅ +0.97u
Astros +108 (1u)✅ +1.08u
Nationals +107 (0.8u)❌ -0.8u
2022 regular season 2-2 -0.43u❌
4/8:
Marlins +115 First 5 (1u)
Orioles +150 First 5 (1u)
Mariners under 4.5 First 5 (-125) (1u)
Tigers Full Game +125 (1u)
Best of luck guys may have some adds later. Just want to see the later game lineups!
October, love the hard work -- Get 'em this season!!
Thanks guys couple Adds:
Braves -180 (1u)
Braves/Reds Under 4.5 (+100) (1u)
Rangers +140 F5 (1u)
Dbacks +115 (1u)
forgot one!
Braves -1.5 runs (+110) (0.5u)
Marlins +115 First 5 (1u)❌
Orioles +150 First 5 (1u)❌
Mariners under 4.5 First 5 (-125) (1u)✅
Tigers Full Game +125 (1u)✅
Braves -180 (1u)✅
Braves/Reds Under 4.5 (+100) (1u)❌
Rangers +140 F5 (1u) UNREAL PUSH
Dbacks +115 F5 (1u)❌
Braves -1.5 runs (+110) (0.5u)❌ unreal loss
3-5 day -1.25u❌
2022 regular season 5-7 -1.68u❌
4/9:
Cardinals -161 (1u)
Padres -158 (1u)
Tribe/Royals under 4.5 F5 (1u)
Yankees/Sox over 9 (-117) (1u)
Twins -135 (1.5u)
White Sox/Tigers under 4.5 F5 (1.3u)
4/10:Marlins f5 under 4 (1u)Indians under 5 f5 (1u)Twins -132 (1.5u)
4/11:
tribe -102 (1u)
Jays +108 (1u)
Brewers -150 (1.5u)
Rangers -127 (1u)
Tigers F5 +107 (0.7u)
BOL this season!
I'll be a frequent visitor here.
Trust me on this:
Knowing the Brewers (I live in their home state, Wisconsin), they're likely to embark on one of their familiar UNDERish streaks - good pitching, not enough scoring. I recall a spell during which the Brewers went 17-3 to the UNDER in 20 consecutive games.
thanks man!
and yep sure looks like it here early this year on brewers.. woof
not going to lie I hate how large this card is early in the year but showing value and my mind lines up with all of them angle wise. Best of luck.
4/12:
royals +150 f5 (0.5u)
royals +145 (0.5u)
Tigers -105 first 5 (1u)
Reds/Tribe under 4.5 (-125) (1u)
Tribe -105 (1u)
Seattle first 5 +100 (1u)
Cubs/pirates over 8.5 (-115) (1u)
Jays +110 (1u)
Angels/Fish under 5 f5 (+105) (1u)
Astros -150 (1u)
Phillies/Mets under 4.5 first 5 +100 (1u)
Added a prop I see valuable.Bieber under 2.5 total earned runs (-130) (1u)
part of this is his pitch count should still be in effect like we saw last time.
Accounting:
4/9:
Cardinals -161 (1u)✅ +1u
Padres -158 (1u)✅ +1u
Tribe/Royals under 4.5 F5 (1u)✅ +1u
Yankees/Sox over 9 (-117) (1u)❌ -1.17u
Twins -135 (1.5u)❌ -2.025u
White Sox/Tigers under 4.5 F5 (1.3u)✅ +1.3u
4-2 day +0.575u✅
4/10:
Marlins f5 under 4 (1u)❌
Indians under 5 f5 (1u)'❌
Twins -132 (1.5u)✅
1-2 -0.7u❌
4/11:
tribe -102 (1u)✅ +1u
Jays +108 (1u)✅ +1.08u
Brewers -150 (1.5u)❌ -2.25u
Rangers -127 (1u)❌ -1.27u
Tigers F5 +107 (0.7u) PUSH
2-2 -1.44u❌
4/12:
royals +150 f5 (0.5u)❌ Royals only goes down as 1 loss since split unit -1u
royals +145 (0.5u)❌
Tigers -105 first 5 (1u)✅ +1u
Reds/Tribe under 4.5 (-125) (1u)✅ +1u
Tribe -105 (1u)✅ +1u
Seattle first 5 +100 (1u) PUSHHH
Cubs/pirates over 8.5 (-115) (1u)❌ -1.15u
Jays +110 (1u)❌ -1u
Angels/Fish under 5 f5 (+105) (1u)✅ +1.05u
Astros -150 (1u)✅ +1u
Phillies/Mets under 4.5 first 5 +100 (1u)✅ +1u
6-3 +2.9u✅
2022 regular season 18-16 -0.345u❌
2022 regular season 18-16 -0.345u❌
Props 0-1 -1.3u❌
4/13:Tribe/Reds under 5 f5 (-120) (1u)
Parlay:Braves/Dodgers +128 (1u)
Dbacks/Astros under 4.5 f5 -105 (1u)
Phillies/Mets under 4.5 f5 (-125) (0.8u)
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