1. #1
    Mr0ctober
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    Mr Octoberís 2021 Season Long Thread.

    Iíve posted on here the last few years will have a small write up on each team. I have recently got down on some win totals and will try to get the previews up extra early. This year will be a little bit different in terms of fantasy, win totals, etc. we have a new baseball. Which changing the ball is nothing new.. anyone who watches this religiously like I do knows we have had different baseballs from the regular season compared to the post season the last two years.. people are worried how much it will change the game.. I think the ball will be a factor early in capping the games/win totals. But we should be able to get a gauge pretty early and wonít matter that much in the long run from a capping perspective. Iím not posting the next two things to gloat or show off. Iím simply posting the 2019 and 2020 records to show that Iíve been profitable. Everything I post I play on here and tweeter itís documented. I take this seriously.. thatís not saying Iím the best there is out there. In fact Iím far far from it.. but I have been profitable most of the seasons the last 10 years. I have had some monster years.. some small years and one losing year. that being said as always nothing is for sure. The game is always changing and variance always plays a role. You get years those extra innings go your way more often and not and years they donít itís part of it in every sport.

    The last part of this I will post is this. The line and price determines who I play. I often get questions like You really think the Marlins will win tonight? After I post a Marlins +240 play. My answer is actually no I do not think they will win tonight. But that really isnít the point. My point is I think the Marlins have a 36% chance to win tonight and the line of +240 is telling me they only have a 29.4% chance to win. There for the +240 line is suggesting Iím going to be +ev or profitable in the long run.

    here are my records from 2019
    MLB 2019 Recap:
    MLB Regular Season 303-320 +9.79u
    Win totals: 13 wins and 4 losses for +11.55 units

    Divisional Futures for 2019 3-2 +6.65 units

    Playoff Record 17-21 -1.310u


    Grand Total of +26.68 units for the year!

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-plays-p6.html


    and HERE IS 2020
    +4.7u✅ On season futures and win totals



    Season win totals/props +4.7u✅
    2020 season 173-160 +17.596u✅

    playoffs 22-26 -7.788u❌
    rays series loss -3u❌

    playoffs -10.788u❌ Rough playoffs still great season

    2020 season & playoff total +11.508u✅✅✅
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...thread-p7.html


    previews up soon! Good luck this year guys letís hope we get the full 162 this year!

  2. #2
    Mr0ctober
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    This year instead of individual team previews i will preview the divisions as a whole because win totals correlate. Meaning if I am higher on a couple teams in one division im most likely lower on a couple other teams in that same division. Before i get into the previews here is what i consider for drawing up my season long win totals/futures etc.

    1: The previous years results (run differential/Pythag wins/Expected wins vs actual wins/record in extra inning games/etc)
    2: offseason additions+any injuries that existed in previous season
    3: Strength of the rest of the division.
    4: Will this individual team likely be buyers or sellers come the all star break.
    5: the interleague cross over game schedule. (something i think is in fact usually not accounted for enough)

    those 5 things among some other stuff is the bulk of it. this season will be a little different as i do not have much of a sample size to go on from last year. Also, Im not just an advanced stats person as i watch a ton of baseball and use a lot of "art" per say in my capping. Alright enough rambling.

    NL East:

    Ill start with the New York Mets. Win total: Over/Under 89.5. there are some higher numbers out there so always shop around. The Mets new owner has burst on the scene in a hurry and you can already tell he's looking to change the culture and the franchise and he doesn't plan on waiting around. Im very high on this team this year and considering that i am a massive Braves fan it pains me to say that. I wont go super in depth this year. but i will point out some things about this team that i like. The mets finished 26 and 34 in last years abbreviated season and had a -22 run differential. Pretty disappointing for them. They went just 12-17 at home last year which is something to note as you expect them to be much better this year. Everyone knows about the addition of the super star Lindor. And that is definitely something to be excited about. But i like the more under the radar editions that this team made. They bring in Carlos Carrasco and Tijuan Walker. Carrasco is as good as anyone in terms of swing and miss stuff when he is right. If he can learn to get a little deeper into the games that would be a massive boost for this team. either way he is a huge addition in my opinion. Walker is another under the radar addition. Hes a proven pitcher that has shown he can eat up 150+ innings in a year and do it with a sub 4 ERA. Add those two with Degrom and a healthy Syndergaard this team could have a top notch staff.

    The second under the radar additions is what i really love that the Mets did. They bring in Trevor May a very solid proven reliever which is exactly what the mets need. They also bring in Aaron Loup a short inning lefty from the Rays but don't be fooled--his numbers vs right handed hitters were outstanding last year. If 2020 Aaron Loup is a preview of 2021 Aaron Loup the Mets pen just got a whole lot better in a hurry. Betances and Diaz are kind of wildcards. Betances is electric when right and Diaz really put together a nice year last year after a disaster 2019. Add all that with Seth Lugo and Gsellman who i expect to provide some nice innings the Mets pitching as a whole will be a strong suit for this team.

    The Addition of James McCann behind the dish will be a big for this team as well. A veteran catcher that will handle the staff and supply a nice boost to the lineup as well. If McNeil and Alonso stay healthy with the addition of Lindor i think this team can easily surpass their win total of 89.5. I would not at all be shocked to see this team win one of (if not the) toughest division top to bottom in baseball. Give me the over 89.5 wins -112 for 2 units despite playing in a loaded division and a cross over interleague with the loaded AL East. The Mets will not be sellers and we could definitely see additions from this team down the road from the front office!

  3. #3
    Mr0ctober
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    Next Up Atlanta Braves.

    I try not to be biased here but i will admit I am a longtime Braves fan. Win total Over/Under 92.5. As much as i love this team i just don't think i can get involved here one way or another. My initial reaction was lean to the under as I do have some concerns here. I'm worried just how long it will take Mike Soroka to get back to 100%. An achilles is an awful injury and i need to see he is 100% back to believe it. Max Fried carried a 4.05 xFIP last year suggesting he was able to pitch maybe a little above his head when in trouble etc. So my gut reaction is that he will come back down to earth this year at least a little bit. And i am in the same boat with Ian Anderson. He was absolutely incredible last year and looked at times like the best pitcher in all of baseball. Can that continue? As a braves fan i sure hope but i still need a bigger sample size. Don't get me wrong i love the kid but i just need to see more before i anointing him as a top arm in the league. They bring in an old brave in Charlie Morton who is proven but is getting older and Drew Smyly is definitely a nice addition if he could ever find a way to stay healthy. Braves have some good pieces in the bullpen here but again some of these guys will need to prove to me that they for real and the names of Luke Jackson, Josh Tomlin, and Sean Newcomb scare me and not in a good way.

    Braves return pretty much the same lineup as last year now that they have re-upped on Ozuna. The offense is loaded and if Pache can prove he is what the braves think he is then sky is the limit for this team offensively.

    With all that being said I lean under on the win total. But i follow this team religiously and watching this team fight when they are down and seeing the vibe of all these young kids led by a manager in Snitker that they love and 3b coach in Ron Washington i just cant suggest playing under here. It reminds me of a little league team that just believes that they are never out of it and as soon as they get a little momentum the other team is hanging on for dear life. And because of the ceiling of this team and the vibe this team seems to have im looking away here. This will be a no play for me. I think this team could win 87 games and also think they could win 97 games. so i see no value in the number. a pass for me. I do think this will be a fun race down the stretch between Atlanta, New York, and possibly the Nationals. a little hint for where i am going next.

  4. #4
    Mr0ctober
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    Washington Nationals. Win total over/under 83.5

    This team seems to have been forgotten. Its almost like they didnt win the world series two years ago. I have heard tons of chatter about the Mets and the Braves all offseason but not a peep about the team from DC. Last i checked this team still has Max Scherzer, Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. the rotation is thin after that but if this team gets in the postseason those three guys could carry them right through. Brad Hand, Will Harris, and Daniel Hudson will anchor the bullpen.

    Offensively is where i love this team. We have forgotten just how good Trea Turner is. They add Josh Bell who hit 37 homers and drove in 116 in 2019. They add schwarber as well who will provide this lineup with some extra pop. And OH. BY. THE. WAY. they have Juan Soto who might just be the best hitter in baseball. Yes i said it Mike Trout fans- come at me. I also think its not out of the question that we see this team add a big name (Kris Bryant- where are you at?)) If this team stays healthy i think they easily surpass the 84.5 wins. They have to play a few games above .500 baseball with a core of Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Trea Turner, Josh Bell, Kyle Shcwarber, and Juan Soto. If i lose here i will tip my hat but this is one of my favorite win totals of the year even in a division with the Braves and the Mets. If you wanted to take a shot that thisteam wins the division at +650 or betteri think you have some nice value here. I just think the possibility of this division being a log jam is there and there are not going to be easy wins here so if luck and health are on the nationals side they easily are capable of winning the NL East. Nationals Over 83.5 Wins at -110 for 4 Units for me.

  5. #5
    Mr0ctober
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    Philadelphia Phillies Over/under 81.5 wins.

    Ill cut right to the point i do not like this team at all. Nola at the top is nice but beyond that we are just relying on no depth in the starting pitching and a lot of questions. I like Wheeler but hes more of a 3/4 starter than a number 2. Matt Moore (once a big time prospect) is a big unknown. and then you have chase anderson/zach eflin/velasquez on the back end. I just do not think this staff is strong enough to get over the 81.5 wins. As i said before if you are higher on some teams in a certain division then you most likely are lower on other teams in that same division. This is a prime example. This division is loaded. I am high on the Mets and Nationals. and the Braves are loaded. The Phillies staff is the worst in the division in my opinion. That includes the Marlins. I just look all over this Phillies team and see mediocre. I see this as a .500 team but that is in a noraml division. Not this division. Im not unloading on this under because i do like some pieces of this team and do see scenarios where maybe they get over. But there are several more paths to the under in my opinion. I love Alec Bohm the rookie 3B (id keep an eye on him if you play fantasy baseball). PLAY: Phillies under 81.5 wins (-112) 1 unit.

  6. #6
    Mr0ctober
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    Miami Marlins Win total over/under 71.5

    This team made the playoffs in the 2020 shortened season and knocked out the cubs in surprising fashion (for most). They did it behind a strong staff that includes Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, and Sixto Sanchez. Sanchez is some kind of talented. Despite most of these players not being recognized by a common MLB fan these guys round out a very very young solid staff that will only get better. I wont go into much detail as i have the Marlins at 71 wins. So this is a no play. That being said i would not be surprised at all if this team finishes ahead of the Phillies. The division is loaded and i just don't think there are enough wins to go around. Keep an eye on this team in the years to come however but i don't think this is the year.

    Recap NL East Plays:
    Nationals Over 83.5 Wins -110 (4 units)
    Mets Over 89.5 Wins -112 (2 units)
    Phillies under 81.5 Wins (-112) (1 unit)

    Division Future:
    Mets to win the NL East +155 (1 unit)

  7. #7
    Mr0ctober
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    NL Central:

    Milwaukee Brewers win total Over/Under 82.5

    With the Cardinals being the love of the NL Central with the addition of Arenado i figured i would start with who i think wins the Central. This won't be a popular take and the Cardinals probably have the best chance to win the division. But this is a price point play with a team that will pitch and defend above average. I found the Brewers at +400 to win the NL Central. I find it somewhat funny that i have seen the Cincinnati Reds win total at 80.5 but +300 to win the division while at that same book the Brewers win total 82.5 and +400 to win the central. Just doesn't add up. The Brewers probably arent getting the respect they deserve because the lack of big name players. Lets not be fooled though. Crobin Burnes xFIP last year 2.99, Brandon Woodruff xFIP last year 3.28, Adrian Houser xFip 4.10 with a 24.2% homer rate on fly balls. Im suggesting that he was somewhat unlucky. Now factor in Brent Suter, Devin Williams, Josh Hader and even freddy peralta. My point is we get a very underrated starting staff with a loaded bullpen.

    Now lets take a look who will be playing defense behind these electric arms. the outfield defense will be nothing short of outstanding. Yelich, Lo Cain, and Jackie Bradley Jr. If you hit the ball in the air you better hope it leaves because otherwise its going to be an out. And i love the addition of Kolton Wong at 2b. This guy is another underrated player due to his lack of production at times at the plate. But his defense is beyond outstanding. If Hiura and Arcia can play to their potential this team is going to be very tough to beat on a nightly basis. Lets not forget they still have Yelich who won the MVP not too long ago. They are going to run out a good starting pitcher most nights, play outstanding defense, and shorten the game with that electric bullpen. And if this team does get in the playoffs i doubt anyone will be chomping at the bit to play them.

    Despite no one talking about this team i think they have a very good shot at surpassing the Win total of 82.5 and winning the least talented division in baseball. Personally, i haven't yet played the Brewers over win total as i usually try to target more unders than overs but i have played the Brewers +400 to win the NL Central. After all it might only take 85 wins to win this division when its all said and done and i think the Brewers are more than capable of that.

    Play: Brewers to win the NL Central +400 (0.5 units)
    Play: Brewers over 82.5 Wins (0.5 units)

  8. #8
    Mr0ctober
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    St. Louis Cardinals:

    Over/Under 87.5 wins

    If you read my above preview on the Brewers then you can guess where i am headed here. Look this organization is and has been tremendous for years on end. They always seem to do more with less. And they somehow grabbed Arenado for next to nothing really. They robbed Colorado and then sold everything back to the Rockies but without having to actually give any of it back. But even with the addition of Arenado i do not love this offense or this team at all really. The pitching is Flaherty, Mikolas, and Wainwright. Not sure we can count on Wainwright as he continues to age. I just do not see enough depth in this staff or the bullpen. I love the corner infielders in Goldy and Arenado but i just think we are overvaluing them too much here.

    My Personal Projection for this Cardinals team is 82 Wins. And that incorporates the fact that they will be playing in a rather bad division. Here is the kicker if you think my projection is low PECOTA has them at 80.7 wins, and Fangraphs at 81.3 wins.

    I do not love fading this team based on how much respect i have for this organization but quite frankly i think the win total of 87.5 is just far too high. As a matter of fact i think the Cardinals could win the Central and stay under the win total.

    Ill trust my numbers here but i do not love it. And despite the big projection difference i will only play it for normal unit.

    Play: Cardinals Under 87.5 Wins (-115) (1 unit)

  9. #9
    Mr0ctober
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    Cincinnati Reds

    Win total over/under 80.5

    I won't go into last year too much. The offense was beyond horrible but the starting pitching carried them to a so called playoff birth in the shortened season. The loss of Bauer will most certainly hurt them in a monumental way. But personally I am not as down on the Reds as most are. for one they will benefit from a overall weak division. and 2 they still carry enough starting pitching that will allow them to compete in the division. Sonny Gray was incredible last year and Luis Castillo has the potential to pitch above the clouds. Those two make up a solid one/two punch. But here is where my optimism comes in. Tyler Mahle is a solid 3rd option if he can continue to improve. Im very high on his overall stuff although his xfip 4.59 suggests that his solid 2020 was a little worse than his actual ERA of 3.59. The other part of the pitching puzzle is Michael Lorenzen. Its been suggested he will move to a starting role. He like Mahle is super talented but the question is will he put it all together. I wont ramble on the Reds season depends on the Mahle-Lorenzen wildcards. If they are good they can easily surpass the win total and maybe contend with the division. If they are bad things could go south in a hurry.

    I wont go into the offense. but you have to expect some positive regression for this lineup. I can't see them being as bad as last year with all the proven veterans they run out on a daily basis. Them adding a shortstop would have been a big help but they obviously didnt want to pursue anyone and save the cash.

    There were rumors of them selling everyone the past couple months. It looks like that plan is dead (for now) but it does suggest that if things go south early we could see them punt on the year! Just an extra scenario where the under could end up cashing.

    For that reason, I will mark this as a no play but i actually do lean to the Reds over 80.5 or 81 if you are stressed for some season long action on this team.

  10. #10
    Mr0ctober
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    It seems i have ran out of time thanks to crazy work schedule. I have went through all the teams and have tons of notes but takes too much time to get it all together. i will just post my season long picks

    MLB 2021 Season Long Win Totals/Division Winners/Props ETC:

    Win Totals:
    Astros Over 86.5 (-112) (to win 5u)
    Cubs under 79.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u)
    Orioles Under 64.5 Wins -115 (to win 4u)
    Pirates Over 58.5 Wins +100 (to win 4u)
    White Sox under 91.5 wins -112 (to win 1u)
    Giants over 73.5 wins -110 (to win 1u)
    Mets Over 89.5 Wins -130 (to win 1u)
    Phillies Under 81.5 Wins -112 (to win 1u)
    Red Sox over 80.5 -112 (to win 1u)
    Rockies Under 40% or 64.5 wins (+102) (risk 4u)
    Rangers Under 43.5% or 70.5 wins -130 (to win 3u)
    Nationals Over 51.5% or 87.5 wins -108 (to win 4u)

    To make playoffs:
    Yes- Houston Astros -112 (to win 3u)

    Divison Winners:
    Houston Astros +150 AL West (risk 3u)
    Brewers +400 (risk 1u)
    Mets +155 (risk 1u)
    Royals +4800 rogue number with local (would suggest taking some at 40/1 or better) (risk 0.5u)

  11. #11
    mjsuax13
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    Good stuff. Good luck! Have followed you on Twitter and in these threads the last couple years. Letís get Ďem!

  12. #12
    Mr0ctober
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    Just a quick disclaimer: I have had good success the last several years. But that does not mean this season will be the same.. I take this seriously and I want people to win with me. The more people I have in my circle I can obtain some extra information and a lot of people that I communicate with have different favorite teams.. that is very valuable as it is impossible to follow all teams with extreme detail like a diehard fan would.. so feel free to jump in comment let me know if you think I’m missing something or have some intel. Anything is welcome. Even criticism! Just don’t trash me after a bad day or bad week.. the mlb season is beyond a grind there will be horrible days where you have 4 bullpens blow 4 different games in the same day etc. the key to that is understanding money management and being able to deal with the loss without chasing or losing your cool. My goal is to finish the season +units. I post on here but do have adds so feel free to follow my tweeter @betweenchalk. For fast access to picks. Do not wager with money you do not have or cannot stand to lose. Decide your unit size and follow along. It doesn’t matter if your unit is 10$ or 1k. That really means nothing. People that bet more per unit doesn’t mean their plays are better etc.. I’ve been in Sportsbooks where the people betting the most have no clue what they are doing. Amounts do not matter In my opinion. Remember we need unit size to be small percentage of bankroll. We need to be able to stand some bad runs etc. alright enough rambling!

    4/1:
    Reds/Cardinals under 3.5 first 5 (+100) (1u)
    White Sox/Angels under 4.5 (-120) (1u)
    Braves +115 (1u)
    Parlay: Dodgers/Padres (+103) (1.5u)
    Tampa/Miami Under 4 First 5 (-115) (1u)
    Giants -114 (1u)

    as always favorites are to win the units posted, underdogs are risk the amount posted. Example giants -114 (1u) means I’m risking 1.14u to win 1u. And Braves +115 (1u) means I’m risking 1u to win 1.15u

  13. #13
    acehole
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    good luck this season

  14. #14
    Mr0ctober
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    Thanks guys! Best of luck to You too!

  15. #15
    Mr0ctober
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    As I mentioned earlier about losing your head... if you had the twins or Braves today or both yikes. Or even the dodgers. Errors galore, bad bounces, runners making outs on homers it’s been some kind of day. If you suffered some bad loses don’t lose your head it’s day one. Don’t try to hit a 9 run homer ever. Chip away keep the line moving. And don’t let bad results ruin your process! And if you benefited from the twins meltdown or the bounce over the braves third basemen or bellinger passing turner and seager errors. Then store that away and remember it next time you take a bad beat. Cheers guys long way to go. Tomorrow’s card in the morning! Let’s get the Giants and white Sox under first 5 home tonight!

  16. #16
    Mr0ctober
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    4/1:
    Reds/Cardinals under 3.5 first 5 (+100) (1u) LOSS -1u
    White Sox/Angels under 4.5 (-120) (1u) LOSS -1.2u
    Braves +115 (1u) LOSS -1u
    Parlay: Dodgers/Padres (+103) (1.5u) LOSS -1.5u
    Tampa/Miami Under 4 First 5 (-115) (1u) Win +1u
    Giants -114 (1u) Loss -1.14u

    1-5 day -4.84u.
    Lets hope that isnt a sign of how this season will go. goodness that was brutal!

  17. #17
    Mr0ctober
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    4/2:

    Will have adds later.

    Houston/Oakland under 4.5 F5 (+100) (0.5u)
    Houston/Oakland under 8.5 (-113) (0.5u)

  18. #18
    Mr0ctober
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    More adds to come:

    dodgers f5 money line/Gonzaga 1h money line parlay: (-137) (0.5u)
    dodgers -0.5 F5 (-150) (0.5u)

  19. #19
    Mr0ctober
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    4/2:

    Houston/Oakland under 4.5 F5 (+100) (0.5u)
    Houston/Oakland under 8.5 (-113) (0.5u)
    dodgers f5 money line/Gonzaga 1h money line parlay: (-137) (0.5u)
    dodgers -0.5 F5 (-150) (0.5u)
    Marlins -104 (1u)
    Angels over 8.5 (-113) (1u)

  20. #20
    Mr0ctober
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    Add last one:

    dodgers -242 (1u). Line came back down have to add it. If it loses tip my hat to Rockies.

  21. #21
    Mr0ctober
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    Houston/Oakland under 4.5 F5 (+100) (0.5u)❌ -0.5u
    Houston/Oakland under 8.5 (-113) (0.5u)❌ -0.565u
    dodgers f5 money line/Gonzaga 1h money line parlay: (-137) (0.5u) pending
    dodgers -0.5 F5 (-150) (0.5u)✅ +0.5
    Marlins -104 (1u)❌ brutal loss -1.04u
    Angels over 8.5 (-113) (1u)✅ +1u
    dodgers -242 (1u)✅ +1u

    3-2 night +0.395u✅

    Regular season record 2021 4-7 -4.445u❌

    pending is the 4/2 dodgers/zags first half (-137) (0.5u)

    4/3 card up later.

  22. #22
    Mr0ctober
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    4/3

    Marlins -103 (1u)
    twins/brewers under 4 (-120) (1u)
    Giants -120 (1u)

  23. #23
    Mr0ctober
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    4/2 dodgers/zags first half (-137) (0.5u)✅

    4/3

    Marlins -103 (1u)✅
    twins/brewers under 4 (-120) (1u)✅
    Giants -120 (1u)❌

    2-1 +1.3u✅
    Regular season record 2021 6-8 -3.145u❌

  24. #24
    Mr0ctober
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    4/4

    ML Parlay: F5 Yanks/F5 Cubs +136 (1u)
    Tigers F5 +0.5 (-125) (1u)
    Braves -115 (1u)
    Dodgers -210 (1u)
    Dbacks F5 +175 (0.5u)
    Dbacks +183 (0.5u)

  25. #25
    Mr0ctober
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    4/4

    ML Parlay: F5 Yanks/F5 Cubs +136 (1u) Loss -1u
    Tigers F5 +0.5 (-125) (1u) Win +1u
    Braves -115 (1u) Loss -1.15u
    Dodgers -210 (1u) Win +1u
    Dbacks F5 +175 (0.5u) Win +0.875u
    Dbacks +183 (0.5u) Win +0.915u

    3-2 Day +1.64u

    Regular season record 2021 9-10 -1.505u

  26. #26
    Mr0ctober
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    4/5:Giants F5 +125 (1u)

    White Sox -120 (1u)

  27. #27
    Mr0ctober
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    Recap:4/5:

    Giants F5 +125 (1u)✅ +1.25u
    White Sox -120 (1u)✅ +1u

    2021 MLB Record: 11-10 +0.745u✅#DraftKings #fanduel #mlbpicks #mlb #GamblingTwiitter #sportsbettingadvice

  28. #28
    Mr0ctober
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    4/6
    Brewers +100
    rangers +116
    Dodgers/As over 8 (-120)

    All 1u

    #DraftKings #fanduel #betmgm #vegas #casino #sportsbettingadvice #GamblingTwitter #MLB #MLBPicks

  29. #29
    Mr0ctober
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    4/6
    Brewers +100✅
    rangers +116✅
    Dodgers/As over 8 (-120)❌

    2-1 day +0.96u✅

    2021 MLB Record: 13-11 +1.705✅

    All 1u

  30. #30
    Mr0ctober
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    4/8 MLB:

    Mariners/Twins under 4.5 F5 (-118) (1u)
    Royals/White Sox under 4.5 (-114) (1u)

    #DraftKings #fanduel #sportsbook #circa #vegas #betmgm #GamblingTwitter #mlbpicks #MLB #bettingtips #bettingtwitter #SportsBiz #sportscards #sportscenter

  31. #31
    Mr0ctober
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    4/9 early adds:
    Reds -122 (1.5u)
    Yankees -126 (1u)
    Nationals +254 (0.5u)
    Last edited by Mr0ctober; 04-08-21 at 10:59 PM.
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  32. #32
    Mr0ctober
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    Going to try and run down some random thoughts after every week going into the weekend.


    1/ The Reds have been mighty fine to start the year. I mentioned positive regression for the offense we have certainly seen that here in the early going. Obviously it’s a small sample size but more than the offense the most encouraging thing about the reds we have seen is the bullpen. They don’t have a lights out closer but the combination of Garrett, Sims, Perez, Antone, Doolittle has been very impressive. Would actually take a look at the division price if you can find a +350 or better. And as Far as the weekend this looks to be a play on team tomorrow with Tyler Mahle on the mound vs a suspect Dbacks team in a ballpark and staff that likely isn’t going to slow this offense down.

    2/ Astros have looked mighty fine in just about every aspect of the game. Very encouraging for some monster season long investments we have made in them. Granted small sample size. But Alvarez knees look good. The staff looks great and Odorizzi and Valdez have yet to make an appearance. Very encouraging start for the team in Houston

    3/ Pittsburgh. I was higher on the Pirates than most and they have been competitive but most of my optimism is gone since the injury to KeBryan Hayes. Still I haven’t totally given up we are only a week in.

    4/ Miami has been horrible offensively but keep an eye on this team first 5 unders. They have the starting to hold teams in check and if this week wasn’t an outlier for this offense then we might be in for several low scoring first 5s.

    5/ Oakland. I was predicting a step back but wow this team looks like the worst in baseball. Or maybe the Astros are just that good. Odds are the Athletics will find some momentum sooner rather than later but. The fashion that this team has lost in this first week is very concerning.

    6/ Orioles are a top the AL East but don’t get too excited. Still expect this team to be in the cellar before the all star break. But Means put together a couple very fine starts and they stole one in extras vs the Yankees. But they have a negative run differential and this division still looks to be the Yankees to lose. Maybe we get another week of the same and can find the Yankees -150 to win the division. I actually would think about adding anything under -200 for the Yankees but I’ll stand for now. No reason to lock up anymore money at those kind of odds.

    7/Nationals lost a couple games that could have gone either way to the Braves. And the dodgers look to be insanely good as we all predicted. This might be a fine weekend to catch the nationals at some good prices. Feel like the Nationals will get a win out in LA.

    8/ Indians pitching has looked pretty solid. But the offense has struggled to score runs. Much like the Marlins this might be a first 5 under machine. And I’m seeing a -190 tomorrow with Pleasac on the hill. I like Pleasac but -190 with this offense feels like value on the other side.

    obviously I have a lot more research to do but just wanted to mention some quick thoughts here early on. This is a super small sample size and doesn’t mean much. But it’s stuff to keep eyes on. Good luck this weekend friends. Enjoy the weather and baseball!
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  33. #33
    Mr0ctober
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    Late add 4/9
    Braves -125 (1U)

  34. #34
    Mr0ctober
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    4/9 recap
    Reds -122 (1.5u)✅ +1.5u
    Yankees -126 (1u)❌ -1.26u
    Nationals +254 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u
    Braves -125 (1u) ✅ +1u

    2-2 day +0.74u✅

    2021 MLB Record: 15-13 +2.445u✅

  35. #35
    Mr0ctober
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    I hate posting live plays bc it’s so hard for people to follow but have to do it here

    .Live Mets -155 (1u)

    degrom looks sharp. Yes they are down a run but we might have the whole rest of the game to score 2 runs here for the Mets. Best of luck

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