[doubledime]

Gl DD!

[barryt]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Sunday:

Wash/Atl over 8-120
Mia/LAD over (no line yet)
Col/Reds over 9.5
Bost/Oak over 7.5 -115

Good luck

Just curious. Are u playing Mia/Lad no matter the line? (And also , Col/reds no matter the odd?)

[jeffchitown]

I honestly think today will be going over for most games weather conditions pretty good at most parks and not the greatest lineup of pitchers today.

[doubledime]

Just curious. Are u playing Mia/Lad no matter the line? (And also , Col/reds no matter the odd?)

Mia/LAD is a play no matter what the line since these are Reliever Plays, based solely on the relief staff and no other factor. Therefore, the line is not a metric for handicapping the Reliever Plays. FYI, the Mia/LAD opened at 8.5.

Col/Reds is still 9.5 at most books. If you can only get 10, I would find some other "outs" so you can shop around.

[doubledime]

I honestly think today will be going over for most games weather conditions pretty good at most parks and not the greatest lineup of pitchers today.

I hope you're right. It certainly is nice weather in your town today.

[nfl_huskers]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 52-38

Regular Plays:

Yesterday 0
YTD: 0-7

Good luck with this system DD! It's a good complement to an UNDER system I'm playing.

I decided to crunch some numbers using SDQL to see if I could come close to your results and get a better idea of how the system would have possibly performed prior to 2016. This analysis doesn't account for grabbing the best lines and your more thorough analysis of the starting pitchers and bullpens. This analysis also focuses entirely on the OVER.

I came up with this query: ((p:SIP<5 and pp:SIP<7 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<7 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6)) and season and STDSERA>3.5

Basically, it looks at the last three games for a team and analyzes instances where the starting pitcher pitched less than 5,6, or 7 innings. The most profitable "innings pitched" combinations for the OVER in 2016 are the three in this query. I also added a filter for the starting pitcher having a season-to-date ERA of larger than 3.5 in the current game, which could indicate the bullpen would be needed. Again, this was the best-case ERA to use for the OVER in 2016. There are definitely better pitcher stats than ERA, but again, just trying to get a quick idea of past performance.

Results: Definitely shows the success for the OVER that happened in 2016 and the current success in 2017. Based on the previous years, it was definitely due for a turnaround. This query doesn't show profits for the OVER in any season from 2004-2015.

Anyway, just something to consider if those query parameters are even remotely close to how this system picks OVER plays.

[nfl_huskers]

Sorry for the lack of results in my previous post. An image I attached came across with a bunch of junk text. Will post the actually query results shortly. Didn't want to have all that garbage text cluttering the thread.

[nfl_huskers]

Here are the query results.

Season Games Record (Over) $OVER
2004 431 208-202-21 (50.7%) ($1,420)
2005 333 156-151-26 (50.8%) ($980)
2006 489 221-238-29 (48.1%) ($3,825)
2007 463 208-225-29 (48.0%) ($3,810)
2008 440 200-221-18 (47.5%) ($4,490)
2009 410 195-197-17 (49.7%) ($2,025)
2010 296 139-149-08 (48.3%) ($2,320)
2011 286 128-144-13 (47.1%) ($2,930)
2012 442 205-212-23 (49.2%) ($2,405)
2013 290 110-170-09 (39.3%) ($7,555)
2014 287 119-153-13 (43.8%) ($4,555)
2015 419 204-200-14 (50.5%) ($1,708)
2016 597 305-257-32 (54.3%) $2,332
2017 122 065-052-05 (55.6%) $826

[Click_Clack]

Bos/Oak at 8.5

[doubledime]

Good luck with this system DD! It's a good complement to an UNDER system I'm playing.

I decided to crunch some numbers using SDQL to see if I could come close to your results and get a better idea of how the system would have possibly performed prior to 2016. This analysis doesn't account for grabbing the best lines and your more thorough analysis of the starting pitchers and bullpens. This analysis also focuses entirely on the OVER.

I came up with this query: ((p:SIP<5 and pp:SIP<7 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<7 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6) or (p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6)) and season and STDSERA>3.5

Basically, it looks at the last three games for a team and analyzes instances where the starting pitcher pitched less than 5,6, or 7 innings. The most profitable "innings pitched" combinations for the OVER in 2016 are the three in this query. I also added a filter for the starting pitcher having a season-to-date ERA of larger than 3.5 in the current game, which could indicate the bullpen would be needed. Again, this was the best-case ERA to use for the OVER in 2016. There are definitely better pitcher stats than ERA, but again, just trying to get a quick idea of past performance.

Results: Definitely shows the success for the OVER that happened in 2016 and the current success in 2017. Based on the previous years, it was definitely due for a turnaround. This query doesn't show profits for the OVER in any season from 2004-2015.

Anyway, just something to consider if those query parameters are even remotely close to how this system picks OVER plays.

I have to admit, I do not know that much about SDQL but would like to learn more about it and how to use it.

If you ever come across anything that can improve the winning % of these plays, feel free to post your findings.

[doubledime]

Bos/Oak at 8.5

Fortunately, it did not matter.

[nfl_huskers]

I have to admit, I do not know that much about SDQL but would like to learn more about it and how to use it.

If you ever come across anything that can improve the winning % of these plays, feel free to post your findings.

Will do. It looks like many of your picks already focus on higher totals, so maybe this is old news, but it looks like the best results come from games where the total is at least 9. ROI falls off sharply for totals under 9. Also, when analyzing the three previous games, best results come when all three previous starters didn't complete six innings. ROI starts falling off if any of those three previous starters completed six innings or more.

p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6 and total>=9 and season

Number of plays gets reduced significantly though. 2016 results would have been 94-55-14 (63.1%) with that filtering, which is an ROI of 19.2% and 34 units profit on 163 games. This year would be 19-13-1, which is an ROI of 13.8%, and a similar winning percentage to your current results.

That's using the SDQL database's lines. You probably could have done better based on the lines I've seen in this thread.
Good luck the rest of this season. The system looks to be continuing with last year's positive momentum.

[DU46]

Another great day, thanks DD!

[juicername]

Will do. It looks like many of your picks already focus on higher totals, so maybe this is old news, but it looks like the best results come from games where the total is at least 9. ROI falls off sharply for totals under 9. Also, when analyzing the three previous games, best results come when all three previous starters didn't complete six innings. ROI starts falling off if any of those three previous starters completed six innings or more.

p:SIP<6 and pp:SIP<6 and ppp:SIP<6 and total>=9 and season

Number of plays gets reduced significantly though. 2016 results would have been 94-55-14 (63.1%) with that filtering, which is an ROI of 19.2% and 34 units profit on 163 games. This year would be 19-13-1, which is an ROI of 13.8%, and a similar winning percentage to your current results.

That's using the SDQL database's lines. You probably could have done better based on the lines I've seen in this thread.
Good luck the rest of this season. The system looks to be continuing with last year's positive momentum.

Thanks for posting the queries, I've been using more simplified "reliever angle" queries for some time, but will probably use the one you posted plus the over 9 filter going forward. I believe DD's system uses relieve pitches thrown, but it should correlate fairly well with innings pitched for obvious reasons.

[doubledime]

Thanks for posting the queries, I've been using more simplified "reliever angle" queries for some time, but will probably use the one you posted plus the over 9 filter going forward. I believe DD's system uses relieve pitches thrown, but it should correlate fairly well with innings pitched for obvious reasons.

I look at the following before I post any Reliever Play:

1. How many pitches the relievers have thrown the last 1 day and and last 3 days.
2. How many relievers were used the last 1 day and 3 days.
3. The rating of the closers.
4. The average pitch count of the starters. (This should be an indication of when the relievers will be entering the game.)
5. ERA of Bullpen

Note: Last year when I started the Reliever Plays, I was using innings pitched by relievers, but morphed over to number of pitches since it seems to be a better indicator.

I encourage anyone that has any other filters that are helping the winning %, to post their findings.

DD

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 3-1
YTD: 55-39

Regular Plays:

Yesterday 0
YTD: 0-7

[Catchn_Picks]

I look at the following before I post any Reliever Play:

1. How many pitches the relievers have thrown the last 1 day and and last 3 days.
2. How many relievers were used the last 1 day and 3 days.
3. The rating of the closers.
4. The average pitch count of the starters. (This should be an indication of when the relievers will be entering the game.)

Note: Last year when I started the Reliever Plays, I was using innings pitched by relievers, but morphed over to number of pitches since it seems to be a better indicator.

I encourage anyone that has any other filters that are helping the winning %, to post their findings.

DD

Thank you for posting this DD. It is generous to discuss the level of complexity behind the picks. BOL always and GLTA!

[doubledime]

Another great day, thanks DD!

Thanks DU

[doubledime]

Thank you for posting this DD. It is generous to discuss the level of complexity behind the picks. BOL always and GLTA!

That's what this forum should be about, helping all win!!

[doubledime]

A while back, someone asked if there was any correlation between relievers and win/loss outcome. I have been looking at it for a couple of weeks and during that short time, there seems that that may be possible. I stress may! The good news is that this system produces a lot of dogs (occasionally a big fave) since it is NOT based on the starters.

I also have been tracking the VMI (Visual Memory Index) of teams, and that is showing promise over the last week. If you google this you can read more about it. I have had some contact with the developer of it, and IMO it's really a different approach.

Both are very small sample times, so I am hesitant to post these, but I will, so we can all track them together.

Keep in mind, I am not good at picking sides with traditional handicapping methods. I know my limitations. However, these two systems look at it from a different perspective, so I thought I would pursue it further.

Please do not blinding play these, just yet!!!!!

I will be rounding the lines up/down to the nearest 5 for easier calculating and posting the results the next day

Reliever Sides:

Phili
Balt
LAA
Det
Clev

VMI Sides:

W Sox

Good luck

[SAX27]

Thanks DD, always enjoyed your Reliever Plays!! Any plays for tonight?

[doubledime]

Thanks DD, always enjoyed your Reliever Plays!! Any plays for tonight?

Almost forgot to post. Thanks

[doubledime]

The Reliever Play for Monday:

KC/NYY over 8

Good luck

[PokeyAristocrat]

Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!

[Robin Shot]

he's the best capper this site has ever had. troll proof and a gentleman.

Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!

[doubledime]

Always helping others to make money and gain knowledge. You the real MVP, DD!

Thanks Pokey

[doubledime]

he's the best capper this site has ever had. troll proof and a gentleman.

Thanks Robin

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 55-40

Regular Plays:

Yesterday 0
YTD: 0-7

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Well, the Reliever Sides did not go so well yesterday

1-4 -3.5 units

VMI:

0-1 -1 unit

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

The Reliever Plays for Tuesday:

Min/Balt over 9
LAA.TB over 8.5

Reliever Sides:

Det (big dog)
Clev (big fav)

VMI:

Seat
Oak

See post #475 for explanation of Reliever Sides and VMI

Good luck

[barryt]

Hi dd
i looked at your record and decided to tail your selections. So far so good .tx
Today I passed on min/ Balt as the line had jumped to 9.5 1.88 I coulda bet 9 but at 1.7 .
i passed. Just wondering with your experience what you would have done with this situation. Not critical either way as it's a long season.
tx
barryt

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0-2
YTD: 55-42

Regular Plays:

Yesterday 0
YTD: 0-7

[doubledime]

Hi dd
i looked at your record and decided to tail your selections. So far so good .tx
Today I passed on min/ Balt as the line had jumped to 9.5 1.88 I coulda bet 9 but at 1.7 .
i passed. Just wondering with your experience what you would have done with this situation. Not critical either way as it's a long season.
tx
barryt

It's good you did. When it gets that pricey it loses value.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Sides:

Yesterday: 1-1

2-5 -3.5 units

VMI:

Yesterday:

0-2

0-3 -3.25 units

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Wednesday:

SD/Mets over 9
Mia/Oak over 9

Reliever Sides:

Atl
Bost
Det

No VMI Plays today

See post #475 for explanation of Reliever Sides and VMI


Good luck