[Cappinpicks]

Shitty orioles? they only have the best line up

[Cappinpicks]

Royals suck dickhole team will never hit

[Machine Choice]

4/29/2014

The Royals come off a day of rest and get to see Dustin McGowan, who has been blown up three times this year. Last time out he got scorched by the shitty Orioles, who are averaging some of the lowest run production of any team in the majors. Now he faces the Royals who are starting to heat up, with Moustakas and Infante starting to tee off big time. Jason Vargas has given up only 2 ERs in 15 home innings and the Jays are hitting only .225 vs lefties this year. On paper this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Royals. Unfortunately, the Royals normally lose in those situations. But not lately: they are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Lots of humidity in the park today, so I expect Vargas to be especially sharp and nasty. Jays should be in for a long night

I don't pay juice higher than -139 and I don't do RLs, so I have structured my bet into a -1 wager by using a combination of the RL and ML.

Royals -1
$273 to win $279

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GAME OVER
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Overall: 6-3
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,528

[whtsox13]

Royals suck dickhole team will never hit

Is 19 runs in their last two games not enough?

[Machine Choice]

4/30/2014

Tonight the Royals get Ventura on the mound, and he's 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three night games this year. He normally has two great outings followed by an average one. His last bad outing was two outings ago, so tonight we are due for another excellent version of Ventura. Toronto's power should be neutralized somewhat by the 18 mph winds blowing across Kauffman. The Royals are a streaky team and right now they are hot. Normally they win in 3-4 game streaks so I expect them to get it done again tonight, win the series, and capitalize in the K where they are 7-3 so far this year. Although I think the under 7.5 will also hit tonight, I'll take the more sure thing with the Royals' hot bats and Ventura's 23 yr old arm and 100 mph fastball.

ROYALS -134
$411 to win $307

[Cappinpicks]

Is 19 runs in their last two games not enough?

who knew they'd come alive finally in the 8th

[PAULYPOKER]

You need to bet the RL when the ML is -120 or greater......

That chalk will eventually choke your roll dry

this is a mathematical certainty.........

[PAULYPOKER]

Actually I go the RL route on any ML above -110

[Down_Goes Bookie]

I was toying with the idea of a TOR ML pick tonight but laid off. Hutchison has acquitted himself surprisingly well so far year and is worth keeping on the radar for starts in the near future.

Ventura is outstanding but as a virtual rook he's going to have his rough spots. It being 52 F or so tonite in KC and him being a Caribbean beach boy fading Ventura against the strong TOR lineup and the capable Hutchison at +125 was tempting.

I'm sitting out, but rooting for Ventura and a W and some good digit for one of my fantasy teams.

[Machine Choice]

4/30/2014

Tonight the Royals get Ventura on the mound, and he's 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three night games this year. He normally has two great outings followed by an average one. His last bad outing was two outings ago, so tonight we are due for another excellent version of Ventura. Toronto's power should be neutralized somewhat by the 18 mph winds blowing across Kauffman. The Royals are a streaky team and right now they are hot. Normally they win in 3-4 game streaks so I expect them to get it done again tonight, win the series, and capitalize in the K where they are 7-3 so far this year. Although I think the under 7.5 will also hit tonight, I'll take the more sure thing with the Royals' hot bats and Ventura's 23 yr old arm and 100 mph fastball.

ROYALS -134
$411 to win $307

xxxxxxxxxxxx
GAME OVER
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Overall: 7-3
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,835

[PAULYPOKER]

You need to bet the RL when the ML is -120 or greater......

That chalk will eventually choke your roll dry

this is a mathematical certainty.........

You risked
$411 to win $307

I risked $186 to win $307 on the same Team........

If KC Would've lost

You would have lost $411

I would have lost $186

A whopping $225 difference

[dlunc3]

You risked
$411 to win $307

I risked $186 to win $307 on the same Team........

If KC Would've lost

You would have lost $411

I would have lost $186

A whopping $225 difference

What would have happened had they lost?

[dlunc3]

What would have happened had they lost?

Edit**

Had they won by 1 run?

[Machine Choice]

5/1/2014

One of the hardest things to do in handicapping is to predict when a hot team will lose. Tonight I'm calling on the red hot Royals to lose. They are averaging only 2.24 rpg vs lefties, and tonight they face Buehrle, who has gotten off to the start of his career with the exception of his last outing. So he is in a bounceback spot vs a Royals team that he has OWNED throughout his career (23-12) including last year when he threw a 4-hitter vs the Royals. The Royals have had five chances to sweep a team at home over the last two years and they've only been able to do it once, and neither of the two times this year. They have the first place Tigers coming in tomorrow, and with the Royals having already won the series, they may be looking ahead to the Tigers. Mark Buehrle is from Missouri and he always pitches well at Kauffman. Couple that with the fact that Guthrie has already given up 5 HRs this year and Toronto is due to TEE-OFF with their power in this game. For the first time the weather will be calm. I look for Toronto to take advantage and avoid the sweep!

Guthrie is 3-7 in his career vs Toronto and gave up 2 HRs to Francisco last year. Guthrie WILL get taken deep at some point tonight. Mark that!

TORONTO -110
$411 to win $374

[figue]

[Machine Choice]

5/1/2014

One of the hardest things to do in handicapping is to predict when a hot team will lose. Tonight I'm calling on the red hot Royals to lose. They are averaging only 2.24 rpg vs lefties, and tonight they face Buehrle, who has gotten off to the start of his career with the exception of his last outing. So he is in a bounceback spot vs a Royals team that he has OWNED throughout his career (23-12) including last year when he threw a 4-hitter vs the Royals. The Royals have had five chances to sweep a team at home over the last two years and they've only been able to do it once, and neither of the two times this year. They have the first place Tigers coming in tomorrow, and with the Royals having already won the series, they may be looking ahead to the Tigers. Mark Buehrle is from Missouri and he always pitches well at Kauffman. Couple that with the fact that Guthrie has already given up 5 HRs this year and Toronto is due to TEE-OFF with their power in this game. For the first time the weather will be calm. I look for Toronto to take advantage and avoid the sweep!

Guthrie is 3-7 in his career vs Toronto and gave up 2 HRs to Francisco last year. Guthrie WILL get taken deep at some point tonight. Mark that!

TORONTO -110
$411 to win $374

xxxxxxxxxxxx
GAME OVER
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Overall: 8-3
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $7,209

[figue]

xxxxxxxxxxxx
GAME OVER
xxxxxxxxxxxx

Overall: 8-3
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $7,209

[Machine Choice]

Keep the clinking glasses going! It's bringing me luck.

[figue]

Keep the clinking glasses going! It's bringing me luck.

yeah,and keep cashing

[Machine Choice]

5/2/2014

ROYALS -138
$617 to win $447

[Machine Choice]

Rationale: Royals are 4-0 in the first game of a series at home this year, have been crushing right handers lately, are 21-9 in Shields' last 30 starts, and went 6-3 vs Detroit at home last year.

Porcello was last in Kauffman in 2012 and he did not do well there, giving up 2 HRs in 10 innings. He will get taken deep tonight, most likely by Mike Moustakas or Alex Gordon (or both)

KC has the better bullpen, and if Shields has a night similar to Porcello's, this game will be decided in innings 7-9 where KC dominates! Note: Porcello has 7.15 ERA in two night games so far this year and KC is 44-19 when favored.

[ShogunRua]

Rationale: Royals are 4-0 in the first game of a series at home this year, have been crushing right handers lately, are 21-9 in Shields' last 30 starts, and went 6-3 vs Detroit at home last year.

Hopefully this doesn't come off as a douchey post, but those statistics are basically irrelevant/useless. You could cherry pick similar things to promote a play on Detroit.

Anyways, it looks like you are off to a good start to the thread. Best of luck.

[Machine Choice]

Overall: 8-4
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,592

[figue]

[Machine Choice]

Withdrawing $592

Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,000
Withdrawals (profit): $592

[Machine Choice]

5/3/2014

Last year the Royals lost 20 of 25 games in May after starting hot in April, and this year could become something similar. They've lost both games in May, and now they have to face a lefty in Drew Smyly. This guy isn't really intimidating, but he did have an excellent start in his last game on the road at CWS (2 ER). And the Royals suck against lefties. As a team they are batting .231 with only 2.3 runs per game vs lefty starters. Meanwhile, Detroit loves lefties, and they get one tonight in the greenhorn Danny Duffy making his first start of the year. Duffy does not handle the pressure of pitching at home. His stats at Kauffman since 2012 are horrendous compared to his road stats. And now he has to face a nightmarish line-up, at home, in a full weekend stadium. I predict he will crack and get abused in short order, provided that Detroit actually cares about this game. They already lead KC by 3 games in the division.

Here's Detroit's line-up vs lefties:
Kinsler .391
Jackson .412
Romine .375
Martinex .364 (and 2 homers)
Davis .294
Cabrera.227
Hunter .227 (I predict that Hunter will be benched tonight, as he has suffered vs Duffy)

Meanwhile, KC vs lefties:
Aoki .529
Hosmer .276 (1 for 7 against Smyly)
Butler .269
Infante .269
Everyone else: below .238

No Royals starter has hit a HR vs a lefty this year. Valencia has hit 1, but he's not a starter.

DETROIT -109
$273 to win $250

[Machine Choice]

Added play ..... 5/3/2014

DBacks +122

$273 to win $333

[Machine Choice]

5/3/2014

Last year the Royals lost 20 of 25 games in May after starting hot in April, and this year could become something similar. They've lost both games in May, and now they have to face a lefty in Drew Smyly. This guy isn't really intimidating, but he did have an excellent start in his last game on the road at CWS (2 ER). And the Royals suck against lefties. As a team they are batting .231 with only 2.3 runs per game vs lefty starters. Meanwhile, Detroit loves lefties, and they get one tonight in the greenhorn Danny Duffy making his first start of the year. Duffy does not handle the pressure of pitching at home. His stats at Kauffman since 2012 are horrendous compared to his road stats. And now he has to face a nightmarish line-up, at home, in a full weekend stadium. I predict he will crack and get abused in short order, provided that Detroit actually cares about this game. They already lead KC by 3 games in the division.

Here's Detroit's line-up vs lefties:
Kinsler .391
Jackson .412
Romine .375
Martinex .364 (and 2 homers)
Davis .294
Cabrera.227
Hunter .227 (I predict that Hunter will be benched tonight, as he has suffered vs Duffy)

Meanwhile, KC vs lefties:
Aoki .529
Hosmer .276 (1 for 7 against Smyly)
Butler .269
Infante .269
Everyone else: below .238

No Royals starter has hit a HR vs a lefty this year. Valencia has hit 1, but he's not a starter.

DETROIT -109
$273 to win $250

xxxxxxxxxxxx
GAME OVER
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Overall: 9-4
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,250
Withdrawals (profit): $592
Net Profit: $842

[Machine Choice]

Added play ..... 5/3/2014

DBacks +122

$273 to win $333

xxxxxxxxxxxx
GAME OVER
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Overall: 10-4
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,583
Previous Withdrawals (profit): $592
Net Profit: $1,175

[Machine Choice]

5/4/2014

Today KC views this game as a playoff game. It's that simple. They see themselves as contenders in the AL Central, yet they are 0-4 vs Detroit so far. If they get swept today, they will be five games back and 2 games below .500. Normally that's not an issue this early in the year, but KC has a delicate psyche as a team. They are young and go hot/cold, get freaked every which way. They need this win today and they will be gunning for it. Detroit doesn't give a f$#% about this game, they already won the series and they are not scared of KC. Advantage: KC.

Going further. Vargas takes the hill for KC and he went 5-0 last May. He was off to a blistering start this year until his last game. But consider: that game was in horrible weather, windy and below 50 degrees and Vargas couldn't command the ball. Today will be in the 80s and Vargas already held Detroit to one earned run over 7 innings when he saw them three weeks ago. Today he will bounce back. And KC supported him with 10 runs in his last outing. I look for them to break out today. They average 5.6 runs per game vs righties at home, whereas Detroit only averages 2.8 rpg vs lefties on the road. In fact, yesterday, if you watched the game, you saw that Detroit couldn't solve Danny Duffy (a lefty) and he is far less of a pitcher than Jason Vargas. Also, let me remind the forum that Verlander had a 6.41 ERA last May and hasn't won in Kauffman in 2 years. Also, Verlander has given up only 1 HR in 40 innings this year. Rather than be impressed by that, we should take a statistical approach and realize that those type of numbers are NOT sustainable! Regression to the mean implies that he is far overdue to get blown up, and it may happen today against a grinding and pissed KC team who is looking to avoid the sweep and has hung a 6.05 ERA vs Verlander in his last 4 starts in KC.

ROYALS +105
$410 to win $431

[JJJ]

Good luck...lets get it great thread

5/4/2014

Today KC views this game as a playoff game. It's that simple. They see themselves as contenders in the AL Central, yet they are 0-4 vs Detroit so far. If they get swept today, they will be five games back and 2 games below .500. Normally that's not an issue this early in the year, but KC has a delicate psyche as a team. They are young and go hot/cold, get freaked every which way. They need this win today and they will be gunning for it. Detroit doesn't give a f$#% about this game, they already won the series and they are not scared of KC. Advantage: KC.

Going further. Vargas takes the hill for KC and he went 5-0 last May. He was off to a blistering start this year until his last game. But consider: that game was in horrible weather, windy and below 50 degrees and Vargas couldn't command the ball. Today will be in the 80s and Vargas already held Detroit to one earned run over 7 innings when he saw them three weeks ago. Today he will bounce back. And KC supported him with 10 runs in his last outing. I look for them to break out today. They average 5.6 runs per game vs righties at home, whereas Detroit only averages 2.8 rpg vs lefties on the road. In fact, yesterday, if you watched the game, you saw that Detroit couldn't solve Danny Duffy (a lefty) and he is far less of a pitcher than Jason Vargas. Also, let me remind the forum that Verlander had a 6.41 ERA last May and hasn't won in Kauffman in 2 years. Also, Verlander has given up only 1 HR in 40 innings this year. Rather than be impressed by that, we should take a statistical approach and realize that those type of numbers are NOT sustainable! Regression to the mean implies that he is far overdue to get blown up, and it may happen today against a grinding and pissed KC team who is looking to avoid the sweep and has hung a 6.05 ERA vs Verlander in his last 4 starts in KC.

ROYALS +105
$410 to win $431

[Machine Choice]

Overall: 10-5
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $6,173
Previous Withdrawals (profit): $592
Net Profit: $765

[Machine Choice]

Cinco de Mayo

Hard to say if the Royals can pull this off. Normally with Ventura on the mound vs the light-hitting Padres I'd say it's a done deal, but since KC can't hit lefties, and Eric Stults happens to be a lefty, I will just take the under. The Royals are averaging 2 runs per game vs lefties, and only have two hitters hitting better than .250 vs lefties. Only 1 HR all year vs lefts. This is bad on a historic level. I will not be surprised if they make Stults look good tonight. Either way, this is probably a 3-1 score type of game. No idea who will win, although I lean Royals.

KC/SD under 6.5 (-120)
$281 to win $234

[Machine Choice]

Overall: 10-6
Starting bankroll: $6,000
Current bankroll: $5,892
Previous Withdrawals (profit): $592
Net Profit: $484

[Machine Choice]

5/6/2014

The Royals got 16 hits last night and still lost the game. Tonight they face another lefty, although he is significantly less impressive than Stults. I think the Royals will continue to hit and break this losing streak tonight. If Guthrie can keep the ball in the ballpark, the Royals should be fine. Everything will hinge on that.

ROYALS +103
$268 to win $273